Patterns of Regional Inequality in Transition Economies

This paper provides a comparative account of important aspects of regional development in transition economies, on the basis of regional statistics available for Poland, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. More specifically it examines the geographical pattern of disparities, the convergence/divergence trends that have taken place at the regional level and the relation of regional disparities to the process of transition. It is found that spatial adjustments under transition favour metropolitan and western regions, especially in countries sharing common borders with the European Union (EU) and being a short distance from the European core. In addition, disparities have increased at various rates and degrees in transition countries to levels that are higher than most of the EU countries. Given that the catch-up process, which favours more often efficiency than equity policies, has a long way to go, the regional problems in these countries may take alarming, by EU standards, dimensions.     

Experimental Study of a Structure Under Stress Pulse Simulating Vertical Ground Motion

This article is an attempt to study the effects of a stress pulse simulating strong vertical excitation, particularly at the first steps of the mode of propagation. The structural model represents a two-story single column, having two pairs of cantilever beams on either side. The study is carried out by means of the experimental method of caustics. The areas of maximum stress concentration, as well as the wave front direction within the horizontal elements of the structure, are determined. The influence of the wave and the reflected effects on the top of the column are also studied. The experimental results are compared with the corresponding results obtained by finite element analysis. The results could be used for the development of rules for the effects of the vertical component.     

Simulating Sources of Uncertainty in Policy Forecasting with a Large-Scale Regional Econometric Model

Long-term forecasts may be helpful in establishing the general framework for a region's policy agenda, and a well-structured economic model offers an opportunity to identify major policy instruments affecting a region's long-term growth. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of long-term forecasts should serve to caution policymakers in interpreting and acting upon such information. To offer perspective on this aspect of forecasts, simulations of the Pittsburgh economy are performed to the year 1995 using a large-scale regional econometric model. The forecasts are based on alternative assumptions concerning the performance of the national economy and the objective conditions characterizing key industries in the region. In this way, the model is used to identify and quantify several major sources of uncertainty in long-term regional forecasts.     

Plant Scale, Industry Agglomeration, and the Outlook for Regional Employment in Central European Economies

A common outcome among Central European transition economies is the significant variation in regional unemployment rates, a condition symptomatic of allocative inefficiency in the labor market. Several studies attribute such variation, at least in part, to large vertically integrated industrial complexes erected during the period of central planning, and in turn to subsequent employment adjustment that operates to the disadvantage of local workers during transition. In this study I provide a test of this hypothesis by examining the correlates of local employment change at the outset of reforms, and specifically adjustment triggered by extreme variation in local plant size and scale externalities.     

Trading Spaces: Imagining and Positioning the 'New' South Africa within the Regional and Global Economies

The end of apartheid has precipitated rapid rethinking of South Africa's position in relation to the rest of Africa and the global arena. Whereas a substantial literature already exists on the country's evolving post-apartheid foreign policy, this article offers one of the first critical analyses of its emerging external economic relations. Although clearly the economic giant of the Southern African Development Community, South Africa does not perform as well on all economic and social indicators as many people, especially South Africans, believe. South African businesses' perception of, and experiences in, the rest of Africa are assessed in relation to emerging patterns of trade and investment there. Selected advertisements and associated imagery deployed by firms in support of their strategies are analysed in the context of domestic transformation and the opening of new horizons abroad. South African foreign direct invest-ment (FDI) is increasingly diversified, both sectorally and geographically, although large firms dominate the profile. South African-based transnational corporations are also becoming increasingly influential global players. FDI and development aid inflows to South Africa, and in relation to the rest of Africa, are analysed and their implications explored. Far Eastern investment rose fast as part of a growing global inflow until 1997/8; more recent figures are disappointing. This reflects political and security concerns, as well as vulnerability to rapid flow reversal in the increasingly important portfolio investment market.     

试谈地情资料中心的内涵

把各级地方志机构建设成为地情资料中心已成为方志界有识之士的共识,但至今对地情资料中心的内涵还没有明确的界定.地情资料中心应该是：收藏了齐全完整的地情资料;管理规范,并积极开展研究和开发利用工作;有配套齐全的设备和规章制度;服务到位,并不断提高地情资料的利用率.     

Estimating a Destination-Choice Model from a Choice-based Sample with Limited Information

In most applications of multinomial logit and other probabilistic discrete-choice models, the estimation data set is either a simple random sample of the population of interest or an exogenously stratified sample. Often, however, it is cheaper and easier to sample individuals while they are carrying out the chosen activity of concern. This produces a choice-based sample, which presents important problems of estimation and inference. This paper is concerned with estimation of destination-choice models from choice-based samples when neither the aggregate market shares of alternatives nor the probability distribution of explanatory variables in the population is known. The method of Cosslett (1981) for estimating multinomial logit models from such data is summarized, and the limitations on information about choice behavior that can be recovered from the sample are explained. An empirical model of pharmacy choice in the Namur, Belgium, area is presented. It is shown that useful and important information about destination-choice behavior can be obtained from a choice-based sample, even without knowledge of aggregate market shares and the probability distribution of explanatory variables.     

Faunal Assemblage Structure Suggests a Limited Impact of the Introduction of Domestic Stock on Later Stone Age Subsistence Economies in South Africa

Livestock remains appear in the South African archaeological record around 2100 years ago. However, the economic importance of domestic animals in Later Stone Age subsistence is debated. This paper adopts an approach rooted in Optimal Foraging Theory to examine if the introduction of livestock is reflected in changing taxonomic diversity of faunal assemblages. Based on the analysis of a database of 300+ faunal assemblages, it is concluded that the economic importance of livestock during the final Later Stone Age of South Africa was relatively limited.     

中国背景下的地方循环经济发展研究报告——聚焦柴达木循环经济试验区

发展循环经济是中国政府在准确把握发展趋势、遵循发展规律的基础上,为缓解资源环境约束、实现经济发展方式根本性转变而作出的重大战略决策。青海省柴达木盆地是一个资源型地区,同时也是一个生态特殊的地区,立足于这个实际,抓住机遇,大力发展循环经济,对整个青海省转变经济发展方式,促进跨越发展与科学发展的统一,具有重大而深远的意义。     

Area‐to‐Point Prediction Under Boundary Conditions

This article proposes a geostatistical solution for area‐to‐point spatial prediction (downscaling) taking into account boundary effects. Such effects are often poorly considered in downscaling, even though they often have significant impact on the results. The geostatistical approach proposed in this article considers two types of boundary conditions (BC), that is, a Dirichlet‐type condition and a Neumann‐type condition, while satisfying several critical issues in downscaling: the coherence of predictions, the explicit consideration of support differences, and the assessment of uncertainty regarding the point predictions. An updating algorithm is used to reduce the computational cost of area‐to‐point prediction under a given BC. In a case study, area‐to‐point prediction under a Dirichlet‐type BC and a Neumann‐type BC is illustrated using simulated data, and the resulting predictions and error variances are compared with those obtained without considering such conditions.     

邓小平区域经济协调发展思想形成的条件

邓小平的“让一部分地区先富起来 ,逐步实现共同富裕”的区域经济协调发展战略思想 ,是在总结我国建国以后经济建设的经验教训、依据我国社会主义初级阶段的基本国情、重新审视我国区域经济发展所面临的新的国际形势的基础上提出来的。平衡发展战略的经验教训和纠正收入分配上的平均主义错误是这一思想形成的历史条件 ,地区间经济发展水平和发展条件的差异性是这一思想形成的现实依据 ,时代主题的转换和国际形势的新变化是这一思想得以提出的时代背景。     

Real Estate FDI in Chinese Cities: Local Market Conditions and Regional Institutions

Two China-based geographers test the importance of market conditions and local institutions in determining the locational pattern of foreign direct investment in real estate development (FDIRE), a major component of China's urban growth since the 1980s. Using data from 35 major Chinese cities, they trace the diffusion of FDIRE from a concentration in China's major coastal cities in the late 1990s to a more dispersed pattern including large inland cities in 2008. In addition to investigating the general association between FDIRE, local market opportunities, and liberalized economies/more developed land markets, the authors assess differences in the locational behaviors of developers from Hong Kong-Taiwan-Macao and foreign countries. A concluding section explores the implications of FDIRE activity for the restructuring of China's urban system. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F210, L850, O180, R330. 3 figures, 7 tables, 35 references.     

水下考古的信息指标略说(二)

1．名称 1．1名称 该沉船单位的名称。根据我国水下考古的实际情况,沉船的编号由国家有关部门统一命名。     

Space–Time Accessibility Under Conditions of Uncertain Travel Times: Theory and Numerical Simulations

Recently, several accessibility measures using the space–time prism concept have been suggested in the literature. These measures fail to take into account (i) the ability of individuals to adjust their activity–travel patterns in coping with constrained choice sets, (ii) uncertainty in the perception of travel times, (iii) temporal variability of travel times, and (iv) the influence of travel information on accessibility. The aim of the present article is to contribute to this literature by addressing these four shortcomings. Theory will be developed and illustrated using numerical simulations. The results suggest that the accessibility measure proposed in this article is a useful indicator of social inclusion in terms of the time individuals can spend to conduct their preferred activities. Moreover, accessibility is found to be affected by the presence of schedule delay penalties, restrictions in time allocation to activities, and the provision of travel time information in order to reduce uncertainty.     

A Method For Calculating The Requirements For Mobile Public Services Under Various Geographical Conditions

A formula is developed for computing the requirements for mobile service units, such as traveling stores, repair shops, and clubs, in various types of rural settlement patterns. The formula takes into account the character of the service rendered, the number and density of the places to be served, the state of the roads, climatic conditions, and other factors. Mobile-unit requirements are found to increase with a decline in the average population, in places to be served, and in density of places. The requirements are highest in remote range-grazing lands in the southern Soviet Union.     

基于常态条件的石窟寺监测数据预警应用初探

目前国内石窟监测实践在数据采集和存储上已取得较多突破,但在体系化、合理化数据利用上仍存在短板,海量数据受限于劣化机理定量化溯源预测、预防性保护普适性环境参数阈值等研究基础尚不成熟,较难发挥指导、辅助当下保护实践的时效作用。本文依托四川广元千佛崖案例,研究基于常态条件的监测数据实时分级预警体系构建方法,并进行初步应用,探索了一种具有一定推广性并可与保护措施设计、完善、评估以及遗产地管理有机结合的监测预警技术路线。