美国对以色列的政策及美以关系的发展（1948-1958）

以色列是在美国的支持下建立的。战后,美国通过插手巴勒斯坦事务,逐步从英国手中夺取处理该地区事务的主动权。在以色列建国伊始,美国给予这一新生国家巨大的帮助。但在战略上,美国并未将以色列视作特别重点考虑对象。在第二次中东战争结束以后,以色列开始受到特别关注,其在美中东战略中的地位和作用日渐突出。本文利用美国解密的档案材料及国内外学者的有关著述,对以建国初期(1948至1958年)美国对以色列的策略及美以关系的发展进行梳理与分析,希望有助于深刻理解美以特殊战略关系的形成及美以关系发展的现状。     

Point Predictions and the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory: A Data Mining Approach—U.S. Nuclear Policy as Proof of Concept

In Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), information processing under the constraints of limited attention and bounded rationality leads to stick‐slip dynamics in policy outcomes. Empirical work in this field often focuses on the macro level. Using the case of nuclear energy policy in the United States as proof of concept, we demonstrate how decisive budget changes in a specific policy subsystem can be linked to attention of Congress and the president. We utilize a mixed‐methods data‐mining approach: Maximum likelihood estimation is used to analyze the distribution of the nuclear energy RD&D budget. Then attention data of both Congress and the president are structured by means of cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Finally, these data are used in a generalized linear model to predict specific budget shifts. The article is designed as a proof of concept: In the case of nuclear energy policy, we are able to predict budget shifts without violating the assumptions of PET. More importantly: we can demonstrate that attention is not only affecting the final policy outcome but also the corridor of the possible.     

美国会展管理教育及其对我国的启示

本在对美国和我国会展管理教育状况进行客观分析与比较的基础上,指出了美国会展管理教育中可资借鉴的地方以及我国相关领域中存在的问题,并据此提出了构建我国会展管理教育框架体系的原则性构想。     

Cuba and the Roots of U.S. Foreign Relations

Gaddis Smith. The Last Years of the Monroe Doctrine, 1945–1993 . New York: Hill and Wang, 1994. 280 pp.
Thomas G. Paterson. Contesting Castro: The United States and the Triumph of the Cuban Revolution .     

美加联盟中的政治与经济利益博弈——以加拿大对华粮食贸易为核心的考察

20世纪50年代末60年代初,面对中国发生的粮食紧缺问题,作为美国冷战盟友的加拿大开始采取自主行动,主动与中国开展粮食贸易。此时美国仍对中国进行政治孤立和经济封锁,加拿大的行为无疑与美国的冷战遏制战略相冲突,美国与加拿大的博弈由此开启。美加双方具有不同的利益诉求,加拿大希望扩大粮食销售市场,解决国内粮食过剩的问题,而美国更看重冷战联盟,并着眼于维护冷战联盟内部的团结,为此在不涉及美国核心利益的问题上向加拿大做出一定的让步。美国与加拿大之间的博弈反映了作为联盟主导者的美国开展联盟管理的困境,也体现了联盟政治与经济利益之间的张力。     

Reconstruction of birth histories using children ever born and children surviving data from the 1900 and 1910 U.S. censuses

Abstract

This paper describes a method to reconstruct birth histories for women in the 1900 and 1910?U. S. census IPUMS samples. The method is an extension of an earlier method developed by Luther and Cho (1988 Luther, N. Y., and L. Cho. 1988. Reconstruction of birth histories from census and household survey data. Population Studies 42 (3):451–72. doi: 10.1080/0032472031000143586.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The basic method relies on the number of children ever born, number of children surviving, number of children coresident in the household and age-specific fertility rates for the population to probabilistically assign an “age” to deceased and unmatched children. Modifications include the addition of an iterative Poisson regression model to fine-tune age-specific fertility inputs. The potential of birth histories for the study of the U.S. fertility transition is illustrated with a few examples.     

U.S. anti-abortion ideology on the move: Mobile crisis pregnancy centers as unruly,unmappable, and ungovernable

Crisis pregnancy centers—anti-abortion non-profits that masquerade as abortion clinics—are increasingly using mobile units to expand their geographical and political reach. In this article, the first to consider mobile crisis pregnancy centers, we examine the methodological, epistemological, and political challenges that mobile units raise for scholars and activists alike. The mobile nature of on-the-go crisis pregnancy centers makes them difficult to both map and regulate. Taking these challenges as a starting point, we reflect on what we learned from our failure to map mobile crisis pregnancy centers. We first outline how mobile crisis pregnancy centers—the epitome of the wild, ungovernable, and unruly—call into question the glorification of these concepts in feminist and queer studies. We also suggest that mobile crisis pregnancy centers trouble the possibility of thinking feminist and political geography separately, as well as the positive affects associated with mobility in discussions of reproductive mobilities. We close with a qualitative analysis of mobile crisis pregnancy centers’ online presence, examining the particular concerns that their mobility raises in terms of race, class, and place.     

克林顿总统时期美国对华政策形成的特点--以总统、国会在对华贸易最惠国待遇问题上的争论为例

通过对克林顿时期总统与国会围绕是否给予中国贸易最惠国待遇问题的争论的历史考察,可以发现在这一时期美国对华政策形成具有如下特点第一,从行政与立法机构之间关系的角度来看,关键时刻总统和国会两院在事关国家利益的重大问题上最终总能达成共识;第二,从行政和国会与两党之间及两党相互之间关系的角度来看,对经济问题的考虑是它们的共同点,也是美国对华政策的重点,美国对华政策中的政治利益往往通过经济手段来实现;第三,从政策实现的途径来分析,总统靠游说国会和呼吁公众支持来实现自己的政策,国会则靠立法来体现其主张,而且国会在大多时候采取主动出击的方式,而总统则在多数时候保持反应式的决策模式。