Point Predictions and the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory: A Data Mining Approach—U.S. Nuclear Policy as Proof of Concept

In Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), information processing under the constraints of limited attention and bounded rationality leads to stick‐slip dynamics in policy outcomes. Empirical work in this field often focuses on the macro level. Using the case of nuclear energy policy in the United States as proof of concept, we demonstrate how decisive budget changes in a specific policy subsystem can be linked to attention of Congress and the president. We utilize a mixed‐methods data‐mining approach: Maximum likelihood estimation is used to analyze the distribution of the nuclear energy RD&D budget. Then attention data of both Congress and the president are structured by means of cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Finally, these data are used in a generalized linear model to predict specific budget shifts. The article is designed as a proof of concept: In the case of nuclear energy policy, we are able to predict budget shifts without violating the assumptions of PET. More importantly: we can demonstrate that attention is not only affecting the final policy outcome but also the corridor of the possible.     

美国会展管理教育及其对我国的启示

本在对美国和我国会展管理教育状况进行客观分析与比较的基础上,指出了美国会展管理教育中可资借鉴的地方以及我国相关领域中存在的问题,并据此提出了构建我国会展管理教育框架体系的原则性构想。     

Cuba and the Roots of U.S. Foreign Relations

Gaddis Smith. The Last Years of the Monroe Doctrine, 1945–1993 . New York: Hill and Wang, 1994. 280 pp.
Thomas G. Paterson. Contesting Castro: The United States and the Triumph of the Cuban Revolution .     

美加联盟中的政治与经济利益博弈——以加拿大对华粮食贸易为核心的考察

20世纪50年代末60年代初,面对中国发生的粮食紧缺问题,作为美国冷战盟友的加拿大开始采取自主行动,主动与中国开展粮食贸易。此时美国仍对中国进行政治孤立和经济封锁,加拿大的行为无疑与美国的冷战遏制战略相冲突,美国与加拿大的博弈由此开启。美加双方具有不同的利益诉求,加拿大希望扩大粮食销售市场,解决国内粮食过剩的问题,而美国更看重冷战联盟,并着眼于维护冷战联盟内部的团结,为此在不涉及美国核心利益的问题上向加拿大做出一定的让步。美国与加拿大之间的博弈反映了作为联盟主导者的美国开展联盟管理的困境,也体现了联盟政治与经济利益之间的张力。     

克林顿总统时期美国对华政策形成的特点--以总统、国会在对华贸易最惠国待遇问题上的争论为例

通过对克林顿时期总统与国会围绕是否给予中国贸易最惠国待遇问题的争论的历史考察,可以发现在这一时期美国对华政策形成具有如下特点第一,从行政与立法机构之间关系的角度来看,关键时刻总统和国会两院在事关国家利益的重大问题上最终总能达成共识;第二,从行政和国会与两党之间及两党相互之间关系的角度来看,对经济问题的考虑是它们的共同点,也是美国对华政策的重点,美国对华政策中的政治利益往往通过经济手段来实现;第三,从政策实现的途径来分析,总统靠游说国会和呼吁公众支持来实现自己的政策,国会则靠立法来体现其主张,而且国会在大多时候采取主动出击的方式,而总统则在多数时候保持反应式的决策模式。     

The Impact of U.S. Airline Deregulation on Airport Traffic Patterns

This paper surveys changes in the U.S. National Airway System since the 1960s. The most appropriate measures for summarizing air traffic distributions at airports are investigated, with the Gini Index of Concentration being used extensively to analyze U.S. airport traffic patterns over a twenty-four-year period. The properties of the Gini index and other measures are compared and discussed in detail in the context of analyzing air traffic distributions. It is shown how concentration in the traffic patterns at the larger airports was at a high level prior to deregulation, but since 1978, the patterns have gradually become even more concentrated.