‘A disguised Liberal vote’? – third-party voting and the SNP under Gordon Wilson in Dundee during the 1970s and 1980s

This article inspects the nature of the Scottish National Party and its place in the breakdown of the two-party system across the United Kingdom in the 1970s and 1980s. This is achieved through an examination of the SNP’s approach in the small city of Dundee, where the party enjoyed a sustained period of success. It highlights the commonalities between the SNP and the Liberals in the 1970s and SDP-Liberal Alliance in the 1980s. The Nationalists adopted a similar third-party role in Dundee, centring their approach on their moderate politics rather than solely on the issue of self-government. The party’s effectiveness in pursuing this approach allowed it to hold on to the Dundee East constituency from 1974 to 1987, until ideological changes affecting the national party made it increasingly impossible to hold firm to this strategy. Nonetheless, this study makes clear that the rise of Scottish Nationalism was a part of a process of British-wide political change, and should not be understood in isolation from the rest of the country.     

Widows,Wives and Witnesses: Women and their Involvement in the 1768 Northampton Borough Parliamentary Election

This article analyses sources relating to the 1768 Northampton borough election to determine the ways in which women were involved in pre‐reform elections. Although there has been literature relating to the participation of women in pre‐reform elections, it has largely focused on elite women. Through a case study of the 1768 election this article will suggest that non‐elite women were involved in a variety of ways. In particular, it will show that these women acted as witnesses during the polling and provided evidence relating to men and their eligibility to vote, and suggest that female householders had an impact upon the election through their property ownership. Through their role as householders, women were able to participate in elections through the exchange of property and enabling men to vote. The activities in which Northampton women were involved had further implications concerning home and its use as a public space.     

A Crisis of Urban Conservatism? Politics and Organisation in Edwardian Norwich

Writing in the mid 1990s, Ewen Green suggested that the Edwardian Conservative Party was locked in a crisis which, after 1910, was leading towards a disintegration of Unionism. Recent research has challenged this view, contending that at constituency level, Conservative activists and parties were recovering, rebuilding around issues such as Ireland, land reform and opposition to National Insurance. However, there are few studies of the causes and consequences of the crisis of Conservatism in urban constituencies or the extent to which the party may have been recovering by the outbreak of the Great War. This article considers these issues in the city of Norwich. It assesses the profile of activists; the fortunes of the Conservatives in the parliamentary election contests of the period, addressing the ways the party used a variety of candidates to attempt to attract popular support; and the particular issues of tariff reform and socialism, to determine the extent to which voters and activists were willing to accept protection as part of a broader defence against socialism. These national issues are contrasted with the performance of the party in municipal elections, considering the basis of the growing appeal they evidenced in council elections after 1906, along with the continuing emphasis on organisational weakness evidenced by party leaders. Overall, it suggests that, despite their municipal strength, the continued commitment of the local party to tariffs prevented them from challenging effectively for the constituency against a Liberal‐Labour alliance with a shared belief in free trade.     

‘The Party Hack,and Tool of the British Government’: T.P. O'Connor,America and Irish Party Resilience at the February 1918 South Armagh By‐Election

The common view of Irish electoral politics for the 1916 to 1918 period is one of major decline for the traditional nationalist representatives, the Irish Parliamentary Party (IPP), and the meteoric rise of the newly reconstituted Sinn Féin party; culminating in the latter's overwhelming victory at the December 1918 general election. By examining the February 1918 South Armagh by‐election campaign, this article argues that the Irish Parliamentary Party, which won the contest, was much more resilient than is often acknowledged. Through detailed analysis of election pamphlets, newspaper articles, private correspondence and committee minutes, it considers the significance of the grass‐roots strength of both in the form of their local organisations, the role of the Roman catholic church, and the election strategies of the two parties; in particular Sinn Féin's vilification of the IPP member, T.P. O'Connor, who was in America at the time of the contest.     

MultiLevel Modeling of Space–Time Variations: Exploring Landslide Voting Patterns at United States Presidential Elections, 1992–2016

Much has been written about the polarization of the American electorate and its reflection in its legislatures, but less about its spatial polarization, which Bishop has argued has taken place in parallel with the ideological and behavioral polarization. The extent of that polarization can be assessed, he argues, by identifying the number of landslide counties, those won at presidential elections by margins of 20 percentage points or more. This paper uses a multilevel modeling strategy to explore changes in the number and extent of those landslide counties over the period 1992–2016, relative to both the location of the counties and their population composition. It shows that a county’s population composition was a major determinant of whether it returned a landslide for either party’s candidate at any election—with a clear change in direction over the period for counties according to their level of affluence—but this was by no means the sole determinant. Holding constant those variations there were additional geographies that were more place‐ than people‐specific.     

Was All Irish Politics Local? The Portarlington Election of 1832 and the Structure of Politics in 19th‐Century Ireland

Historians have often characterised 19th‐century Irish elections as insular, inward‐looking affairs. This article, however, offers a reconsideration of the role played by national and imperial events in Irish elections through a close analysis of the Portarlington contest of 1832. While acknowledging the importance of local concerns in the campaign, it argues that the Portarlington election cannot be understood in exclusively parochial terms. Candidates, voters, and opinion‐makers all situated the contest in national and imperial, as well as provincial, contexts, and they behaved as if larger political issues might affect the ultimate outcome of the campaign. An examination of the election suggests that the dichotomy between the local and the national, while analytically useful, can also be misleading: the Portarlington contest exhibited a complex interplay between local, national, and imperial affairs. This article concludes, consequently, that national and imperial issues were integrated into the structure of Irish politics after the Reform Act of 1832.     

The 1949 federal election: A reinterpretation

The 1949 federal election in Australia is widely regarded as one of Australia's most significant elections. This election ended eight years of ALP government and began a long period of unbroken rule by Liberal‐Country Party governments. Surprisingly, very little has been written about the 1949 election although various authors have addressed themselves to the question of why the Chifley government lost in December 1949. The orthodox interpretation is that Chifley's defeat in 1949 was to do with the issues of ‘bank nationalisation’ and ‘communism’. In this article, I offer a reinterpretation of the connection between political issues and voting behaviour in the 1949 election. Following the theory of Fiorina that voters tend to make their decision on the basis of how a party fares in handling problems in the past, I argue that the Australian electorate in 1949 responded negatively to Chifley's handling of the general economy and his policies on two crises in 1949 — the national coal strike and the dollar crisis.     

Political Dynasties in Thailand: The Recent Picture after the 2011 General Election

This article seeks to understand the patterns of family-based politics in Thailand’s 2011 House of Representatives election. The key question is whether the political dynasty, a sequence of political leaders who are considered members of the same family, is still a determining factor in Thai elections, and if so, to what extent compared to the past. Drawing on a rich set of data collected from election results between 1979 and 2011, this article argues that the political roles and influences of many political dynasties have become more complicated and have tended to increase, although some have experienced defeat in elections. The article finds that while belonging to a political dynasty could give new dynastic faces a better chance of winning a House election in their constituency than their non-dynastic counterparts, the most influential factor for electoral candidates in winning a House of Representatives election is belonging to the Pheu Thai Party or the Democrat Party. This article thus suggests that one of the best ways to avoid the monopoly of one or a few political families in Thai politics is to empower and support party members and eligible voters to meaningfully engage in political parties’ affairs and activities.     

Cleavages,electoral geography,and the territorialization of political parties in the Republic of Georgia

Abstract

This article examines the territorialization of party support in the Republic of Georgia as political parties in Georgia try to territorialize by aligning themselves to existing societal cleavages. The article specifically focuses on the case of the United National Movement (UNM), which from its inception in 2001 was led by Georgia’s former president, Mikheil Saakashvili, and was the country’s governing party from 2004 to 2012. While in power, the UNM enjoyed nationwide support. After being unseated, instead of nationalizing countrywide, the UNM has based its support in national elections on specific areas populated by ethno-linguistic and religious minorities. By analyzing the results of the most recent five national elections and the 2014 national census, the article shows that continuing support for the UNM and the subsequent territorialization of the party is dictated by these existing societal cleavages.     

The problem with counting preferences: the example of one nation party preferences at the 2001 Western Australian legislative assembly election

A growing number of lower‐house seats at Australian State and federal elections rely on a distribution of preferences from Independent and small‐party candidates before seats can be awarded. Actors have attempted to gain political capital from this situation by claiming that the preferences of particular small parties have affected election outcomes. This paper uses the events of the Western Australian State election held in 2001 to explore the validity of such claims. More specifically, it investigates the widely propagated contention that the One Nation Party's anti‐sitting‐member preference strategy was a key determinant of the Coalition's electoral defeat. It concludes that the increased number of candidates contesting elections makes it difficult to assess whether the second and subsequent preferences of any particular small party were critical to the outcome.     

Catholic,Irish and Nationalist: evaluating the importance of ethno‐national and ethno‐religious variables in determining nationalist political allegiance in Northern Ireland

Irish national identity, political nationalism and Catholicism are the defining characteristics of the minority community in Northern Ireland. These identifiable ethno‐national and ethno‐religious characteristics have been the basis of communal solidarity that has transcended increasing socio‐economic heterogeneity within that community. Both of the Nationalist political parties in Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), draw their support almost exclusively from their community of origin. What is not known, however, is the relative importance of Irishness, Catholicism and Nationalism in shaping support for either party. Which of these ethnic identifiers is of greatest salience in identifying support for Sinn Féin or the SDLP? Drawing upon recent election survey evidence, this article attempts to rectify this information deficit, highlighting the weighting of components of ethnicity in determining intra‐bloc political allegiances.     

The Myanmar imbroglio and ASEAN: heading towards the 2010 elections

Following the adoption of a new constitution by national referendum, Myanmar's military junta is set to organize multiparty elections in 2010. Not least to influence Myanmar's leadership, with regard to the conditions Washington believes necessary for credible elections, the United States announced in September 2009 that it would embark on a new approach towards Naypyidaw. This will focus on a high‐level dialogue while keeping existing sanctions in place. The Obama administration has asked the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to support this new approach. Against the backdrop of the deep divide between the ruling generals and Aung San Suu Kyi, and the continued conflict between Naypyidaw and armed ethnic nationalities, this article asks: How strong is ASEAN's record when it comes to influencing the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) in relation to matters of national reconciliation and political transition? What factors explain ASEAN's approach towards Myanmar? What prospect, if any, is there that ASEAN states can influence Myanmar's political developments before the 2010 elections? The article argues that ASEAN has not moved beyond a collective criticism which aims to induce Naypyidaw to respond positively to the demands of its international detractors. ASEAN's norms, different political identities and geopolitical interests coupled with the SPDC's prickliness have limited the consensus on Myanmar. Naypyidaw's calculations about relations with Washington, rather than ASEAN's ‘enhanced interactions’ with the military government, and domestic political dynamics are likely to be the crucial determinants of further developments in the context of the 2010 elections.     

Complex security and strategic latency: the UK Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015

Whichever party or parties form the next UK government, a Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) is expected to begin soon after the general election in May. The review might be a ‘light touch’ exercise—little more than a reaffirmation of the SDSR produced by the coalition government in 2010. It seems more likely, however, that the review will be a lengthier, more deliberate exercise and one which might even last into 2016. For those most closely engaged in the process the challenge is more complex than that confronted by their predecessors in 2010. The international security context is more confused and contradictory; the UK's financial predicament is still grave; security threats and challenges will emerge that cannot be ignored; the population's appetite for foreign military engagement appears nevertheless to be restricted; and prevailing conditions suggest that the risk‐based approach to national strategy might be proving difficult to sustain. Two key questions should be asked of the review. First, in the light of recent military experiences, what is the purpose of the United Kingdom's armed forces? Second, will SDSR 2015–16 sustain the risk‐based approach to national strategy set out in 2010, and if so how convincingly? Beginning with a review of the background against which SDSR 2015–16 will be prepared, this article examines both enduring and immediate challenges to the national strategic process in the United Kingdom and concludes by arguing for strategic latency as a conceptual device which can complement, if not reinvigorate, the risk‐based approach to national strategy and defence.     

The Partito Democratico after the 2013 elections: all change?

This article analyzes the changes that occurred within the Partito Democratico (PD, Democratic Party) from the fiasco of the general election in February 2013 until the European elections in May 2014, focusing in particular on the extent to which the presence of a new, distinctive type of leadership has contributed to such transformations. The first section describes the most relevant events affecting the party in the period considered, such as the failure to gain a parliamentary majority, the problematic re-election of Giorgio Napolitano as President of the Italian Republic, the transition from Pier Luigi Bersani to Matteo Renzi as party leader, and the transition from Enrico Letta to Renzi as Prime Minister. The following sections deal with questions of renewal in the party's organization, with an emphasis on the key role played by Matteo Renzi as the new leader. To achieve its goal and explain how the PD has changed in recent months, the article resorts to the well-known framework of the three party faces proposed by Katz and Mair.     

Beverley,Inderauuda and St John: A Neglected Reference

Abstract

This article examines the 1852 Sunderland election campaign as an example of a borough election in the fluid political situation of the 1850s. It seeks to demonstrate the complex interaction of national and local issues, influence, personalities and personal interests in the context of the town's previous electoral history, and the influence that memories of incidents in previous campaigns exerted on the contest. It argues that it was, and was perceived by contemporaries to be, primarily a contest between interests within the Liberal party rather than one between Conservatives and Liberals. The article seeks to identify the problems this presented in the management of the election and the tactics and means employed in the presentation of the campaigns to the public, particularly in the use made of local newspapers. The bitterness of the contest and the volume of, at times contradictory, evidence that has survived allow for a more detailed examination than is possible for many elections of this period, enabling at least some insight to be gained into the complexity of the underlying manoeuvres and the shifting motives and loyalties of the participants. The article concludes by examining briefly the results of the election but acknowledges the difficulties of attempting to go beyond the contest and its result to reach any detailed understanding of voters' motivations.     

Triangular Contests and Caucus Rhetoric at the 1885 General Election*

This article explores the role played by late‐Victorian political associations during parliamentary election campaigns. The central hypothesis is that party organisation, known popularly as the ‘caucus’, is best understood as a rhetorical device used by politicians and the press to gain legitimacy in the new context created by an expanded and quasi‐democratic electorate. The hypothesis is tested by examining the 1885 general election campaigns in Nottingham West and Sheffield Central. Both constituencies witnessed a triangular contest whereby an ‘additional’ candidate, standing on a radical platform, entered the campaign and pursued a distinctly ‘anti‐caucus’ agenda that was aimed primarily at the local Liberal Party Association. The manner in which the ‘caucus’ issue was articulated by all sides involved throws new light on the role played by party organisation during this period. While all sides described their association in a way that both defended and asserted its legitimacy, they equally used ‘anti‐caucus’ rhetoric to diminish the credibility of their opponent's organisation, even though they were emulating the deeds they were denouncing. Indeed, it was those within official Liberalism that indulged in the most virulent ‘anti‐caucus’ rhetoric. Thus, it is suggested that, with regard to the attitude of radicals towards official Liberalism, this ‘anti‐caucus’ rhetoric reflected not a real popular resistance against party organisation or ‘party’, but simply intense competition and imitation between rival ‘caucuses’.     

Perspectives on democratic consolidation in Southern Africa: The five general elections of 2004

Huntingdon's ‘third wave’ of democracy came late to Africa, but five countries held general elections in 2004, providing an opportunity to reflect on degrees of democratic consolidation in the region. African political dynamics are considered in relation to the political and economic environment together with national, ethnic and regional identities and the way in which these may influence democratic consolidation. The electoral systems of the five countries are considered in relation to the dominant party effect. The course and outcomes of the five elections are examined in relation to indicators of participation and competition suggested by Lindberg. The latter's indicators of legitimacy are considered in relation to more detailed analysis of each election in its national context, paying attention to the influence of ethnic, regional and other divisions on outcomes, which are mapped. Major procedural flaws prevented democratic consolidation in Mozambique and hindered it in Malawi, where the party system also proved unstable. South Africa, Namibia and Botswana satisfied most of the criteria apart from turnover and provide convincing evidence of the institutionalisation and acceptance of democracy, albeit qualified by the continuing dominance of their governing parties. In all five countries the equation of democracy with socio-economic benefits threatens disillusionment in the face of poverty and inequality.     

Preservation of and Access to South Seas Photographs

In August 2001, in a constitutional reform of potentially far-reaching consequences, Papua New Guinea's parliament voted to change the country's electoral system. As a result of this decision, all elections held after 2002 will be conducted under a system of preferential voting. A similar system was used for Papua New Guinea's first three elections between 1964 and 1972, before the change to a first-past-the-post system at independence in 1975. This paper, drawing on a combination of historical records, election studies and recent observations, looks at the historical impact of both electoral systems in Papua New Guinea, and at the different kinds of political behaviour encouraged by them, including their divergent influences upon election campaigning, candidature rates, support levels for successful candidates, electoral violence and the party system. It concludes by examining the potential consequences of a return to preferential voting in Papua New Guinea.     

Free and Fair? Rhodesians Reflect on the Elections of 1979 and 1980

The elections of April 1979 and February 1980 were the first in Rhodesia/Zimbabwe's history to permit universal adult suffrage, allowing for black majority rule. In the first election, Bishop Abel Muzorewa's United African National Council (UANC) won an overwhelming victory, while in the second, British-supervised election, Muzorewa's party was soundly defeated and Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) won over 60% of the vote. By interviewing present and former white Rhodesians, located via Facebook and the print magazine Rhodesians Worldwide, who were witnesses to these two critical elections, this study aims to shed light on which of them was more representative of the will of the people of Zimbabwe, at least in the eyes of the country's white minority.     

Change and Continuity in Irish Politics: The General Election of 2007

Bertie Ahern, the incumbent Taoiseach or Prime Minister of Ireland, was elected to a third term in the general election of 24 May 2007. While Ahern's party, Fianna Fáil, was able to retain its governing coalition, the level of support of some of the other parties changed dramatically. Fine Gael, the principal opposition party, saw its number of seats in the parliament, Dáil Éireann, increase by nineteen. Some of the minor parties did less well than expected or compared to previous elections. Only the Greens maintained their six representatives. As a result, they were rewarded with a share in the new government. This election suggests that, while Irish society is changing rapidly, the political system is changing more slowly and subtly. This article examines the election results in terms of the fate of the political parties and focuses on one constituency, Tipperary South, to illustrate trends in Irish electoral politics.