Iraqi Kurdistan: challenges of autonomy in the wake of US withdrawal

In August 2010, the United States officially ended the combat mission of its military forces in Iraq and withdrew all but 50,000 of its troops from the country. Iraqi Kurds now contemplate the implications of the looming withdrawal of the remaining 50,000, scheduled for the end of 2011. While Arab–Kurdish relations in Iraq face the risk of serious deterioration, the US military withdrawal will probably not greatly affect the internal politics of Kurdistan. Given the de facto autonomy the region has enjoyed since 1991 and the Kurds’ resulting experience with self‐rule, Iraqi Kurdistan never suffered from the post‐2003 security and political vacuums plaguing the rest of the country. As a result, no more than a few hundred coalition troops were stationed in Iraqi Kurdistan (and no coalition casualties have occurred there since 2003), with governance and security remaining completely in the hands of the Kurdish authorities. While important centrifugal tendencies do exist in Iraqi Kurdistan and are discussed here, the region will most likely continue to deal with Baghdad and the rest of the outside world with the united voice it cultivated after 2003. US civilian personnel and advisers will also remain in Iraq after the military withdraws, which offers the possibility of assisting Iraqi Kurdistan to overcome obstacles in order to achieve better, more transparent governance. A continuing American diplomatic engagement in Iraq also offers the possibility of helping Kurdistan further institutionalize its autonomy vis‐à‐vis Baghdad and neighbouring states.     

The Perpetuation of Regime Security in Gulf Cooperation Council States: A Multi‐Lens Approach

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have been engaging in diversification efforts, yet the types of efforts suggest that the primary interest is regime security. Regional foreign policy is complex; hence we propose a multi‐lens approach to analyze overlapping and complementary political, economic, and social forces. The international political economy of hydrocarbons demonstrates the similarities among GCC states, regional dynamics illustrate interstate relations and similar patterns, while economic diversification suggests individual state trajectories and comparative and competitive patterns. By outlining the contemporary context for GCC states, we argue that low oil prices, regional dependence on hydrocarbons, and trends in economic diversification efforts signal GCC states' preference to reinforce their rentier systems with alternative state revenue streams. GCC states' diversification into new markets and sectors and use of state‐owned enterprises in microcompetitions indicate a new search for alternative revenue streams and prestige, which in turn are used to assure the perpetuation of regime security. This finding sets trajectories and implications for the region, specifically economic stagnation and supplementary diversification processes.     

The political parameters of post‐withdrawal Iraq

The withdrawal of US combat forces presents new challenges and opportunities for Iraqis over the coming months and years. This special issue of International Affairs seeks to provide an assessment and analysis of many of these challenges and opportunities from the perspective of Iraqi actors, while also considering the interests of the wider regional and international community. Iraq remains important, fundamentally so. The main challenges that now face Iraqi leaders are not of recent origin but have never been fully confronted—to some degree the US presence has acted to ameliorate tensions at difficult times and helped to find compromise solutions that have left situations calm but also put on hold. The articles in this special issue focus on a range of these challenges, questioning orthodox views on Iraqi political development and considering the possibilities that lie ahead. They present not only ‘post‐American Iraq’ but also ‘post‐Iraq America’. By facing these challenges successfully, political, economic and social opportunities clearly unfold. These opportunities, if exploited to the full, would see Iraq's security become normalized, its economy and social structures repaired, and the prominence of the country in international affairs as a constructive rather than destructive force increased. However, the reverse of this is also starkly apparent. The failure of Iraqi leaders to meet the challenges may present very serious problems in the near future—problems possibly made all the more severe due to the lack of a US military presence and the perceived weakening of US will to impose itself on the political direction of the country.     

Essential Threats to the Security of the GCC Countries in the Post Arab Spring Era

The so called Arab Spring has brought more challenges to the security of the Arabian Gulf states members of the Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC). This article aims to reach a better understanding of the main threats facing the GCC states in the post Arab Spring era. It argues that the conservative system of the GCC states, originated in the paternalistic conservatism, is facing an essential threat from three very important elements that are instigated by the eruption of the so called Arab Spring: political liberal ideas, political Islamic movement, and sectarianism. The article investigates the impact of these elements on the GCC states.     

Shifting State–Business Relations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Post‐2014

This study aims to explore how state–business relations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been developing following the fall in oil prices in 2014 and the subsequent increased pressure to implement economic reforms. The main argument is that due to a combination of factors, the positions of the established business community vis‐à‐vis the ruling powers in those countries have become weaker. The factors are: 1) economic pressure and necessity to reform since the 2014 decline in oil prices; 2) the generational shift and subsequent centralizing tendencies in the ruling circles in some of the states; and 3) increased geopolitical rivalry and antagonism between the GCC members, including intensified competition for foreign investment and external political support. Meanwhile the governments have acquired more control over commercial activities that used to be the realm of the business elite. Although these changes are happening to a varying extent and at a different pace in each GCC country, the trend is recognizable in all six.     

Transatlantic relations and peace in Europe

In his recent novel Alain Crémieux imagines what might happen in Europe without NATO and US military forces and security commitments. Numerous border and minority conflicts break out, coalitions comparable to those in Europe's past begin to form, and the European Union is divided and ineffectual— until pro‐peace and pro‐EU forces rally. Most European countries then unite under a treaty providing for collective defence and security and a new central European government. The novel raises questions of international order: to what extent have the Europeans overcome their old ‘demons’ (distrust, power rivalry etc.), notably through the EU? While many theories purport to explain the peaceful relations among the EU member states, critical tests of the Union's political cohesion would come in circumstances without the US‐dominated external security framework, including US leadership in NATO. To what extent could the EU maintain cohesion and resist aggression or coercion by an external power against a member state, contain and resolve external conflicts affecting EU interests, and defend the Union's economic and security interests beyond Europe? To determine whether the US ‘pacifying’ and protective role has in fact become irrelevant, thanks in large part to the EU, would require a risky experiment—actually removing US military forces and commitments. The challenges and uncertainties that would face Europe without NATO argue that the Alliance remains an essential underpinning of political order in Europe. Moreover, the Alliance can serve as a key element in the campaigns against terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. To revitalize the Alliance, it is imperative that the Europeans improve their military capabilities and acquire the means necessary for a more balanced transatlantic partnership in maintaining international security.     

Institutionalization,path dependence and the persistence of the Anglo‐American special relationship

One of the remarkable phenomena in post‐Cold War world politics is the persistence of the Anglo‐American special relationship (AASR) in spite of recurrent announcement of its death by pessimists. Current scholarship on Anglo‐American relations largely draws on interests and sentiments to explain the persistence of the AASR, ignoring other important contributing factors such as institutionalization. This article is the first to give serious consideration to the role of institutionalization in influencing the persistence of the AASR. By using the concept of path dependence, this article argues that the high‐level institutionalization in Anglo‐American intelligence, nuclear and military relations plays a seminal role in contributing to the persistence of the AASR in the post‐Cold War era. The institutionalized intelligence relationship is exemplified by the relationship between the UK's Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) and the US's National Security Agency (NSA), which is underpinned by the UKUSA Agreement. The institutionalized nuclear relationship is exemplified by a variety of Joint Working Groups (JOWOGs), which is underpinned by the 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement. The institutionalized military relationship is exemplified by routinized military personnel exchange programmes, regular joint training exercises and an extremely close defence trade partnership. The high‐level institutionalization embeds habits of cooperation, solidifies interdependence and consolidates mutual trust between the UK and the US in their cooperation on intelligence, nuclear and military issues.     

Archeology in Conflict and UNESCO: Legal Aspects

This article analyzes the obligations under the 1954 Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict and its two Protocols related to the protection of cultural property in occupied territory. It goes on to provide practical examples of the return of cultural property from Iraq to Kuwait following the entry of Iraqi military forces into Kuwait in August 1990 and the legal framework of the return of Iraqi cultural property under operative paragraph 7 of the United Nations Security Council resolution 1483, adopted on 22 May 2003.     

The ‘war on terror’ and extremism: assessing the relevance of the Women,Peace and Security agenda

Recognizing the critique of sexual essentialism in the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda, this article moves beyond this familiar narrative to address the narrowness of conflict frames that have to date been engaged by the WPS agenda. The events of 11 September 2001 brought new urgency and vibrancy to state action in the realm of counterterrorism. This momentum was illustrated both by the response of national legal systems and by more concerted efforts to achieve multilateral and multilevel counterterrorism cooperation on the international level. Notably, terrorism and counterterrorism have long been of only marginal interest to mainstream feminist legal theorists. Until recently concerted analytical feminist scrutiny has been missing in the assessment of terrorism, radicalism and counterterrorism discourses. This article addresses the lack of attention to terrorism, counterterrorism and countering violent extremism (CVE) initiatives in the WPS mandate and its consequences for mainstreaming gender interests in foundational aspects of peace and security practice. Recent normative augmentations including UNSCR 2242 and the amplified mandate of the Counter‐Terrorism Committee to include gender considerations are assessed. The article argues that these moves to include gender come late, and on the terms set by security‐minded states. The late attention to gender in counterterrorism leaves little capacity to produce an inclusive and reimagined feminist agenda addressing the causes conducive to the production of terrorism and the costs to women of counterterrorism strategies. This pessimistic assessment warns of the pitfalls of exclusion and inclusion in the new security regimes that have been fashioned post 9/11 by states.     

Beyond Fashoda: Anglo‐French security cooperation in Africa since Saint‐Malo

Traditionally divided on security matters, France and Britain broke new ground when they signed the 1998 Saint‐Malo agreement, promising to collaborate on defence and security, and pledging to cooperate bilaterally and in a ‘bi‐multi’ fashion on Africa. This Anglo‐French collaboration is the focus of this article, which begins by setting out the lack of UK–French security cooperation in Africa from the colonial to the early post‐Cold War era. It then shows how there has been a degree of institutionalization of Anglo‐French relations, alongside greater cooperation in terms of ESDP missions and the training of African peacekeepers. Next, this study explains the recent evolution of UK–French security relations in terms of neo‐classical realist theory. Finally, it assesses the likelihood of closer Anglo‐French security collaboration in the future.     

British civil–military relations and the problem of risk

Drawing primarily on the experience of the UK since 2001, this article examines the increasing prevalence of risk as an organizing concept for western defence and security planning and its implications for civil–military relations and strategy‐making. It argues that there may be tensions between such approaches and the principles of good strategy‐making, which aim to link means and resources to ends in a coherent manner. Not only does risk potentially blur the relationship between means and ends in the strategy‐making process, it also exposes it to contestation, with multiple interpretations of what the risks actually are and the strategic priority (and commitment) which should be attached to them. The article examines these tensions at three levels of risk contestation for British defence: institutions, operations and military–society relations. In the case of the UK, it contends that the logic of risk has not been able to provide the same national motivation and sense of strategic purpose as the logic of threat. In this context, calls for a reinvigoration of traditional strategy‐making or a renewed conception of national interest may be missing a more fundamental dissonance between defence policy, civil–military relations and the wider security context. More widely, the strategic ennui that some western states have been accused of may not simply be a product of somehow falling out of the habit of strategy‐making or an absence of ‘political will’. Instead, it may reflect deeper social and geostrategic trends which constrain and complicate the use of military force and obscure its utility in the public imagination.     

The United States, The United Nations and Iraq: 'Multilateralism of a kind'

Much is made of the need for any second war against Iraq (following Desert Storm of 1991) to be sanctioned by a resolution of the UN Security Council, approved necessarily by all five Permanent Members. Yet only two of the five, the USA and the UK, show any enthusiasm for renewed war in the Persian Gulf; and British policy is undeniably following rather than leading American actions on the diplomatic and military fronts. What are the sources of this American policy? Some critics say oil; the latest arguments of proponents invoke humanitarian concerns; somewhere between the two are those who desire ‘regime change’ to create the economic and political conditions in which so‐called western political, economic and social values can flourish. To understand the present crisis and its likely evolution this article examines American relations with Iraq in particular, the Persian Gulf more generally and the Middle East as a region since the Second World War. A study of these international relations combined with a critical approach to the history of American actions and attitudes towards the United Nations shows that the United States continues to pursue a diplomacy blending, as occasion suits, the traditional binaries of multilateralism and unilateralism—yet in the new world‐wide ‘war on terrorism’. The question remains whether the chosen means of fighting this war will inevitably lead to a pyrrhic victory for the United States and its ad hoc allies in the looming confrontation with Iraq.     

The United States and Myanmar: a ‘boutique issue’?

Myanmar has been one of a number of countries that the new American Executive branch selected for policy reconsideration. The Obama administration's review of relations with Myanmar, characterized as a ‘boutique issue’ during the presidential campaign, has received considerable attention in 2009, and in part was prompted by quiet signals sent by both sides that improved relations were desirable. Begun as an intense policy review by various agencies, it has been supplemented by the first visits in 15 years to the country by senior US officials. The policy conclusion, that sanctions must remain in place but will be supplemented by dialogue, is a politically realistic compromise given the strong congressional and public antipathy to the military regime and the admiration for Aung San Suu Kyi, whose purported views have shaped US policies. US claims of the importance of Myanmar as a security and foreign policy concern have also been a product of internal US considerations as well as regional realities. US—Burmese relations since independence have been strongly influenced by the Cold War and China, whose strategic interests in Myanmar have been ignored in the public dialogue on policy until recently, with US policy focused on political and human rights concerns. Attention is now concentrated on parliamentary and local elections to be held in 2010, after which the new constitution will come into effect and provide the military with a taut reign on critical national policies while allowing opposition voices. Future relations will be strongly influenced by the transparency and freedom both of the campaigning and vote counting, and the role—if any—of the opposition National League for Democracy. Strong scepticism exists in the US on prospects unless the Burmese institute extensive reforms. The Burmese military, presently controlling all avenues of social mobility, will have a major role in society for decades. The article initially evaluates US policies towards Myanmar prior to 1988, when a military coup marked a negative shift in US—Myanmar relations, from cooperation to a US sanctions regime. It looks at the influence China's involvement in Myanmar and the role Aung San Suu Kyi have had on the formulation of US policy towards the country and assesses the prospects for the US‐Myanmar relationship under the Obama administration.     

Strategic Reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy

President Putin has presided over a proactive, hard-headed and relatively effective Russian policy in Central Asia and the Caspian region since at least the summer of 2002, which aims both to support Russia's revival as an economic and military power and to help tackle at source new security challenges from the volatile south. In line with rising domestic nationalist thinking and the growing influence of officials with a security service or military background, Moscow has been searching for a rationale to support a more assertive policy in the region. Meanwhile, Russian and American views on the scope and conduct of the war on terrorism have diverged in important respects. Russia lacks an overall regional strategy for Central Asia, but is seeking to mesh together geopolitical, security and energy policy goals. It is seeking to reinvigorate its military–security influence in Central Asia under the banner of counterterrorism and at the same time has achieved long-term agreements for energy transit and purchases that make Central Asian states increasingly dependent on Russia in energy policy. Overall, a dynamic of competition is displacing the potential for cooperation between Russia and western states, especially the United States, in Central Asia. The prospects for a fully-fledged strategic partnership in the region are fading but the reality of security threats from Afghanistan and within Central Asia might eventually reconcile Moscow to a lower profile but long-term western strategic presence in the region.     

Book reviews

Book reviewed in this issue. International Relations theory Thinking politically: essays in political theory. By Michael Walzer. Edited by David Miller. Human rights and ethics Human rights and structural adjustment. By M. Rodwan Abouharb and David Cingranelli. Ending slavery: how we free today's slaves. By Kevin Bales. International law and organization International territorial administration: how trusteeship and the civilizing mission never went away. By Ralph Wilde. Crafting cooperation: regional international institutions in comparative perspective. Edited by Amitav Acharya and Alastair Iain Johnston. Foreign policy Shifting alliances: Europe, America and the future of Britain's global strategy. By Patrick Diamond. The European Union and the United States: competition and convergence in the global arena. By Steven McGuire and Michael Smith. Britain in Africa. By Tom Porteous. Europe—Asia relations: building multilateralisms. Edited by Richard Balme and Brian Bridges. Conflict, security and armed forces Critical approaches to international security. By Karin Fierke. War and the transformation of global politics. By Vivienne Jabri. Things fall apart: containing the spillover from an Iraqi civil war. By Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack. Architect of global jihad: the life of Al‐Qaeda strategist Abu Mus'ab Al‐Suri. By Brynjar Lia. Combating terrorism: strategies and approaches. By William C. Banks, Renée de Nevers and Mitchel B. Wallerstein. Politics, democracy and social affairs Defending identity: its indispensable role in protecting democracy. By Natan Sharansky. Political economy, economics and development Regional monetary integration. By Peter B. Kenen and Ellen E. Meade. Authority in the global political economy. Edited by Volker Rittberger and Martin Nettesheim. Ethnicity and cultural politics God's continent: Christianity, Islam and Europe's religious crisis. By Philip Jenkins. Energy and environment The political economy of power sector reform: the experiences of five major developing countries. By David G. Victor and Thomas C. Heller. History Piercing the bamboo curtain: tentative bridge‐building to China during the Johnson years. By Michael Lumbers. Croatia through history: the making of a European state. By Branka Maga?. The Sino‐Soviet split: Cold War in the communist world. By Lorenz M. Lüthi. Russia and Eurasia Yeltsin: a life. By Timothy J. Colton. Middle East and North Africa International assistance to the Palestinians after Oslo: political guilt, wasted money. By Ann Le More. Mirror of the Arab world: Lebanon in conflict. By Sandra Mackey. Sub‐Saharan Africa Angola: the weight of history. Edited by Patrick Chabal and Nuno Vidal. Darfur's sorrow: a history of destruction and genocide. By M. W. Daly. The translator. By Daoud Hari. Southern Africa. By Jonathan Farley. Asia and Pacific China's new Confucianism: politics and everyday life in a changing society. By Daniel A. Bell. The three faces of Chinese power: might, money and minds. By David M. Lampton. China's Communist Party: atrophy and adaptation. By David Shambaugh. Assessing the threat: the Chinese military and Taiwan's security. Edited by Michael D. Swaine, Andrew N. D. Yang and Evan S. Medeiros with Oriana Skylar Mastro. North America Enemies of intelligence: knowledge and power in American national security. By Richard K. Betts. Foreign affairs strategy: logic for American statecraft. By Terry L. Deibel. The terror presidency: law and judgment inside the Bush administration. By Jack Goldsmith. Bill Clinton: mastering the presidency. By Nigel Hamilton. Legacy of ashes: the history of the CIA. By Tim Weiner. Latin America and Caribbean Rethinking Venezuelan politics: class, conflict and the Chávez phenomenon. By Steve Ellner. Crossroads of intervention: insurgency and counterinsurgency lessons from Central America. By Todd Greentree. Presidential impeachment and the new political instability in Latin America. By Aníbal Pérez‐Liñán.     

Enhanced European Union–Australia security cooperation through crisis management

ABSTRACT

Since January 2003, the European Union (EU) has launched over 30 civilian and military crisis management missions under the Common Security and Defence Policy. These missions have involved the participation of both EU member states and third states. In order to help facilitate the participation of third states in these missions, the EU established the Framework Partnership Agreements on crisis management, setting out the legal framework for third-state participation. In April 2015, Australia became the seventeenth country to sign such an agreement with the EU. This agreement reflects both the common interest and values shared by Australia and the EU and the extent to which EU–Australia relations have evolved and deepened over the years. In addition, the increased engagement and socialisation of Australian military and civilian personnel with individual EU member states through their participation in such operations as the International Security Assistance Force operation in Afghanistan, led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the Combined Maritime Force have further facilitated opportunities for security cooperation at the EU level. Shared concerns and interests on counterterrorism, counter-piracy, instability and capacity-building have also opened up opportunities for increased cooperation between the EU and Australia. This article assesses the significance of the Framework Partnership Agreements on crisis management for EU–Australia relations within the area of security cooperation, and examines future prospects for cooperation.     

EU counterterrorism strategy: value added or chimera?

Europe did not wake up to terrorism on 9/11; terrorism is solidly entrenched in Europe's past. The historical characteristics of Europe's counterterrorism approach have been first, to treat terrorism as a crime to be tackled through criminal law, and second, to emphasize the need for understanding the ‘root causes’ of terrorism in order to be able to prevent terrorist acts. The 9/11 attacks undoubtedly brought the EU into uncharted territory, boosting existing cooperation and furthering political integration—in particular in the field of justice and home affairs, where most of Europe's counterterrorism endeavours are situated—to a degree few would have imagined some years earlier. This development towards European counterterrorism arrangements was undoubtedly event‐driven and periods of inertia and confusion alternated with moments of significant organizational breakthroughs. The 2005 London attacks contributed to a major shift of emphasis in European counterterrorism thinking. Instead of an external threat, terrorism now became a home‐grown phenomenon. The London bombings firmly anchored deradicalization at the heart of EU counterterrorism endeavours.     

Illusions of care: Iraqi students between the Ba’thist State and the Stasi in socialist East Germany, 1958–89

For four decades, Iraqi students came to the German Democratic Republic for education, political refuge, or to burnish their credentials. In 1969, Iraq opened diplomatic relations with the GDR, simultaneously extending its persecution of the Iraqi Communist Party (ICP) into East Germany by means of a complex bureaucratic apparatus of diplomatic organs, security services and student organisations. While ICP members were eventually protected by the Stasi, this entangled them in a system that offered care at the cost of obedience. The on-going campaign against ICP students ultimately played an outsized role in undermining the relationship between the SED and the Iraqi Ba’th.     

Do We Need a GCC Bank to Facilitate the Economic Turnaround of the GCC Region?

Amidst the ongoing crisis of plummeting oil prices, the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) terrain has become a haunt of economists and financial analysts to tackle the ongoing challenges in the region. GCC constituents are gearing themselves with a robust political will that they hope could result in a turnaround of their economy by adopting a policy of economic diversification in nonoil‐based sectors. With this background supported by extensive qualitative scan of literature pertaining to the reforms proposed by the six members of the GCC to drive the economy forward amidst ongoing economic crisis, this article seeks to underscore the prospect of a shared initiative by the GCC constituents in institutionalizing a GCC bank as a potent innovative solution which may serve to provide an edifice for pushing forth the region's economy in nonhydrocarbon segments contingent upon the individual needs of the GCC constituents. As an exploratory study, this paper sheds light on these issues besides discussing the fundamental functions of the GCC bank.