Some Extensions to Rushton's Spatial Preference Scaling Model

Rushton's spatial preference scaling model is extended and its computing algorithm modified in order to utilize more fully all the information contained in the input data set, and to make it a better predictor of choice behavior. The preference scale that is produced by the model measures the certainty with which generalizations can be made about choices between classes of objects. The model offers two significant advantages over commonly used spatial interaction models: freedom from a priori selection of the function relating choice to attributes of objects, and applicability to studies where the number of origin and destination zones is large relative to the populations involved.     

Seeking politically compatible neighbors? The role of neighborhood partisan composition in residential sorting

High rates of internal migration throughout the United States offer opportunities to examine the factors underlying residential selection and neighborhood choice. We devise a survey experiment where respondents are shown photographs of properties and information about the local socioeconomic environment. By providing and varying additional information about the neighborhood partisan composition, our survey experiment explores how political information affects property evaluation. We find that the same property will be evaluated more favorably by partisans when they learn that it is situated in a predominantly co-partisan neighborhood. A second experiment examines how people make judgments about neighborhood partisan composition in the absence of readily available information. We learn that correct inferences about the politics of a locale can be drawn from non-political information about it, even without exposure to direct information about its partisan balance.     

Estimating a Destination-Choice Model from a Choice-based Sample with Limited Information

In most applications of multinomial logit and other probabilistic discrete-choice models, the estimation data set is either a simple random sample of the population of interest or an exogenously stratified sample. Often, however, it is cheaper and easier to sample individuals while they are carrying out the chosen activity of concern. This produces a choice-based sample, which presents important problems of estimation and inference. This paper is concerned with estimation of destination-choice models from choice-based samples when neither the aggregate market shares of alternatives nor the probability distribution of explanatory variables in the population is known. The method of Cosslett (1981) for estimating multinomial logit models from such data is summarized, and the limitations on information about choice behavior that can be recovered from the sample are explained. An empirical model of pharmacy choice in the Namur, Belgium, area is presented. It is shown that useful and important information about destination-choice behavior can be obtained from a choice-based sample, even without knowledge of aggregate market shares and the probability distribution of explanatory variables.     

Shopping for Schools: How Do Marginal Consumers Gather Information About Schools?

The theory of the marginal consumer holds that a subset of better informed consumers can create a globally more efficient market through their purchase decisions. In the market for education created by recent school choice initiatives, these "market mavens" are essential to the successful functioning of the choice system given the empirically documented low quantity and quality of information possessed by the average consumer. Little is known, however, about the differences between how marginal consumers and average consumers of education search for information and make decisions about their children's schooling.     

Simultaneous-Equation Systems Involving Binary Choice Variables

Simultaneous-equation systems of continuous variables are well known in the social sciences. Unfortunately, these methods cannot be used when dealing with discrete endogenous variables. Although for discrete types of data a broad range of methods and techniques have been developed, their applicability is restricted to single-equation systems (for example, logit or probit formulations) or to association-type models (log-linear models), mainly because of the lack of suitable estimation methods and computer programs. The basic problem is the multivariate error structure of the endogenous variables. This paper presents a simultaneous-equation system of binary endogenous variables. The model is applied empirically to longitudinal data on mode choice and is compared with the well-known log-linear model.     

Telecommunication Media Choice Behavior in Academia: An Austrian-Swiss Comparison

A general framework to analyze communication media choice behavior in the university setting is proposed which integrates a stated preference experimental design procedure into a discrete choice modeling framework. The framework is empirically tested using hypothetical choice experiments in which traditional mail, courier mail, telephone, facsimile, and electronic mail services were choice options to carry out information communication tasks. For this purpose face-to-face interviews were conducted in six universities in Austria and Switzerland. The choice modeling approach developed emphasizes the influence of communication context specific characteristics, individual and organizational characteristics of the communication initiator as well as the individual's perceptions and feelings about the communication media on the formation of preferences. Empirical results are presented using stated preference models of communication media choice behavior for a series of communication situations. Specific emphasis is laid on cross-national differences in choice behavior.     

红外光谱在文物保护中的应用介绍

文物信息的提取与研究对于揭示古代遗物包涵的人类社会、文化等历史信息有着举足轻重的作用:一方面可以了解古代的工艺技术特征,探寻文物制作技术起源及其发展历程;另一方面可以进行病害调查分析,为保护文物提供有价值的信息。本工作以红外光谱技术为出发点,细致梳理了目前红外光谱在文物保护中的应用,包括无机质文物中青铜器、土壤、颜料、珠宝玉石,有机质文物中纸张、丝织品、彩绘胶料、有机残留物,以及保护材料。提出该技术具备应用范围广、特征性强、无损或微损样品、不受样品物态限制等优势,但同时不适合分析含水样品、定量分析时误差大、解析图谱时依靠经验等局限性。揭示显微红外光谱技术在无损分析文物方面的广大前景,为文物保护研究与实践提供参考和借鉴意义。     

Rational Choice Theory and the Evaluation of Public Policy

The dominance of rational choice-inspired models of policy development, implementation, and evaluation has grown dramatically over the years as a challenge to traditional, pluralist politics. In this article, we analyze the theoretical foundations of the rational choice perspective and its criticism of pluralist politics. We explore the values inherent in the rational choice perspective and suggest that they feed into growing public cynicism about government and lead to a conservative policy agenda of less government. We then develop an unusual argument that the very tools of rational choice analysis and its values actually produce far more government involvement than expected. by examining school voucher programs. We conclude by making a case for pluralist politics as a more appropriate means for addressing the concerns of classical liberals and others about excessive government intrusion.     

Should we expect large game specialization in the late Pleistocene? An optimal foraging perspective on early Paleoindian prey choice

Several recent studies employ foraging theory to model early Paleoindians as big game specialists who focused on hunting large bodied, high-return animals such as mammoths. In this paper, we evaluate the specialist model by identifying the range of handling times and encounter rates within which mammoth (Mammuthus columbi) specialization would occur. We continue by using allometric relationships between body size and population density in mammals to estimate encounter rates for mammoth and other North American species. Combining these two pieces of information allows for the construction of an optimal diet curve representative of late Pleistocene prey choice, given the inclusion of mammoth. Our results seriously question the model of early Paleoindians as megafaunal specialists and suggest that foragers should have pursued a wide array of taxa including not only mammoth, but the full range of ungulates and some smaller game as well. These results accord well with empirical data on prey choice from late Pleistocene archaeological contexts from across North America.     

Community consultation in public policy: The case of the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia

Community consultation is widely employed in contemporary Australia as a means of improving the formulation and implementation of public policy. However, little is known about the optimal expenditure of effort required for any given consultation. This article develops a rational choice model of community consultation that seeks to encapsulate the major elements involved in optimising consultation effort. The framework is particularly useful for understanding and explaining why actual community consultation processes may be sub-optimal. The rational choice model is then applied to the Living Murray debate over water resources in the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia.     

广州门禁小区入室盗窃受害率与内部环境分析

基于CPTED(crime prevention through environmental design)和社会失序(social disorganization)理论,本文利用2012年在广州进行的入户调查数据,从内部环境角度对广州门禁小区入室盗窃受害情况进行研究。通过描述性分析和回归分析,本文发现小区的社会环境和建成环境都对小区入室盗窃受害情况都有影响,小区正式控制机制、小区开放度和功能混合度对小区入室盗窃受害率有非常显著的影响,小区环境形象和流动性对小区入室盗窃受害率有一定的影响但是并不显著。通过实证分析我们认为CPTED和社会失序理论的监视性、小区组织结构、出入控制等概念对门禁小区入室盗窃受害情况有非常强的解释力;由于门禁小区的特殊性,以及中国经济社会文化背景差异,流动性、领属感、异质性等思想未体现出与理论假设一致的结论。     

DISCRETE SPATIAL CHOICE MODELS FOR AGGREGATE DESTINATIONS*

ABSTRACT. In problems of spatial choice, the choice set is typically more aggregated than the one considered by decision-makers, often because choice data are available only at the aggregate level. These aggregate choice units will exhibit heterogeneity in utility and in size. To be consistent with utility maximization, a choice model must estimate choice probabilities on the basis of the maximum utility within heterogeneous aggregates. The ordinary multinomial logit model applied to aggregate choice units fails this criterion as it is estimated on the basis of average utility. In this paper, we derive and discuss a model which utilizes the theory underlying the nested logit model to estimate the appropriate maximum utilities of aggregates. We also demonstrate that the aggregate alternative error terms are asymptotically Gumbel, thereby relaxing the assumption of extreme value distributed error terms. This is accomplished with help from the asymptotic theory of extremes.     

Partitioning chi-square for the analysis of frequency table data: an archaeological application

Archaeologists often wish to compare observed frequency distributions with expectations generated by a model. We describe a technique of partitioning chisquare which yields information about goodness of fit to a model and about homogeneity among populations simultaneously, and which is often superior to other commonly used methods of evaluating frequency data. The technique is demonstrated with data from the Upper Paleolithic rockshelter Le Flageolet I. The results suggest selective raw material use by the Aurignacian occupants.     

A spatial interaction model of vote dispersion

How do votes disperse through a territory? Studies of spatial voting patterns have largely focused on the influence of local factors on voting. The “Friends and Neighbors” model (Key (1949)) explains the advantage of candidates running for office in the locality with which they are associated (Arzheimer and Evans (2012, 2014): Collignon and Sajuria (2018); Horiuchi et al. (2018); Jankowski (2016); Hunt (2020); Munis (2021)), and the “neighbor” effect helps to explain why votes spread. More recent studies have found that the dispersion of votes decreases with distance (Put et al. (2020); Arzheimer and Evans (2012)). However, we know little about how spatial patterns of voting emerge or the mechanism behind the neighbor effect. We argue that this effect depends on the neighbors’ access to information about a candidate, which is constrained by the way information flows. Although scholars have argued that information is a relevant driver explaining the dispersion of votes (Bowler et al. (1993); Arzheimer and Evans (2012); Evans et al. (2017); Campbell, Cowley, Vivyan, and Wagner (2019)), no research has examined the relevance of the network through which information flows. We propose that a spatial interaction model (Wilson (1971)) allows us to predict where this information flows or the voting pattern that will form. Taking advantage of a quasi-natural experiment in Brazilian legislative elections in 1974 and 1978, we show that votes spread through areas of influence created by a hierarchy of cities based on the flows of exchanges among them, including information. We then use our spatial interaction model to predict voting patterns in the elections of 1978 using data from the 1974 elections. Our findings show that the spatial interaction model results fit the data quite well and can help predict spatial patterns of voting.     

Exploring The Basis For Parental Choice in Public Education

From the perspective of public choice theory, this article explores the relationship between student performance and certain aspects of school organization and operation. Employing multiple regression and analysis of variance techniques, we found that variation in comprehensive student assessment test scores can be explained best by variables such as income, district size, and the extent of classroom crowding. Student performance was lowest in the largest districts. Student performance tended to be better in those school districts with relatively higher incomes, fewer schools, and a lower proportion of oversized classes. These findings confirm the utility of readily available information about public schools as a basis for parental choice and lend support to public choice criticism of large, centralized, educational organizations.     

Mode Choice,Commuting Cost,and Urban Household Behavior*

Abstract. In this paper, we extend the partial equilibrium urban model of DeSalvo (1985) to include mode choice. DeSalvo demonstrated that the urban model of Muth (1969) was robust to the extension to leisure choice. We show that the model is robust to mode choice as well. In addition, we derive the comparative static results that commuters choose higher speed modes for longer commutes, at higher wage rates, with greater tastes for housing, and with lower housing prices. Also, for a given distance commuted, we derive the comparative static result that commuters chose shorter duration commutes at higher wage rates. Whereas it is typically assumed that marginal commuting cost is positive and non‐increasing with distance, we derive these results. Moreover, we derive the results that marginal commuting cost rises with an exogenous increase in housing price and falls with increased tastes for housing. We also explore the effects of exogenous commuting‐cost changes on the endogenous variables of the model. The remaining comparative static results on housing consumption and location are qualitatively the same as in DeSalvo.     

Interregional Migration Modeling via Entropy and Information Theory

In attempting to model gross migration flows, as distinct from net flows, entropy and information theory models supplement those from the demographic tradition. However, clear differences exist between these two classes, including the type of origin and destination information which needs to be supplied, the relationship between the overall decision to migrate and the conditional choice of destination, the role of behavioral variables other than distance, and the expected predictive performance. In this paper, an enhanced interregional migration model is introduced which attempts a further integration of both the above classes. A linear version of the model is used for exploratory data analysis on a large Australian population census data set. Several alternative hypotheses are then tested with the general model. Some guidelines are also indicated toward developing a fully dynamic version of the model as well as a formal hierarchical framework.     

Taming a land. Power politics and the growth of complexity in the north‐east of the iberian peninsula during the first millennium BC: The lower ebro region

In this paper we examine the structure of politically complex societies in the north‐east of the Iberian Peninsula during the first millennium BC, using the Lower Ebro region as an example. Drawing on data provided in recent years by archaeological research, we discuss the combination of territorially hierarchical and heterarchical phenomena. At the same time we reassess the chronological framework in which this sociopolitical process took place. To do so, we rely more on information about the evolution of the protohistoric societies in the region under study than on information about material culture. We present a model that may serve as a starting point for future research.     

在线信息搜索对旅游者感知形象及决策的影响研究

本文基于目的地形象理论,利用实验、出声思维、访谈等多种方法,结合词频统计、同位素示踪等分析手段解析了在线信息搜索对于旅游者感知形象演化及目的地选择决策的影响。研究发现:潜在旅游者持有的目的地原生形象具有集中性。随着外部信息搜索的进行,来自DMO控制型信息源的信息加强了这种印象并形成引致形象的热门词部分,依此旅游者对意识域中众多可选目的地进行筛选并形成考虑域。这一过程构成"广泛信息搜索路径"。而对非DMO控制型信息源的信息摄取则使引致形象演化出长尾,这些形象的细节性信息促使旅游者做出具体决策,此即为"精细信息搜索路径"。旅游者的目的地选择决策过程即是在不断重复这两条路径,直至做出最终选择。     

Impact of charring on cereal grain characteristics: linking prehistoric manuring practice to δN signatures in archaeobotanical material

Systematic use of animal manure has been demonstrated to be detectable in the plant δ¹⁵N value but evidence of manure affecting isotopic composition is mainly based on studies of fresh plant material. These findings can potentially be applied to archaeobotanical assemblages and thus provide information about prehistoric manuring practice. Prehistoric grains are generally found in a charred state of which the exact charring conditions are unknown but most likely often multifarious. In this study we examined the influence of grain weight and a range of charring conditions with regards duration, temperature, oxygen availability, and manuring. The charring was applied to emmer, spelt and naked barley with assessment of weight loss, N concentration and δ¹⁵N. There were only small and non-systematic variations in δ¹⁵N in relation to grain weight class. We also found that charring did not distort δ¹⁵N in either a systematic or substantial way and conclude that manuring most likely will be detectable in archaeobotanical charred grains. As certain within-grain variability in δ¹⁵N existed, especially in the intensively manured grains, the resolution of this kind of information should be carefully considered. However, despite attempts to deliberately tamper and distort the grain δ¹⁵N signature, the changes observed in this study were too small to be of any consequences for the archaeobotanical applicability of the method. Thus the isotope method offers unique evidence about prehistoric manuring practice.