Food Inflation in the European Union: Distribution Analysis and Spatial Effects

In the European Union (EU), homogenous inflation forces are expected to prevail because of increased economic integration, especially after the creation of a single currency area. This expectation is directly related to the issue of inflation convergence, which has gained increasing attention by both academics and policy makers in Europe. Although the examination of core inflation is of great importance for macroeconomic policy, the role of disaggregate inflation indices, and especially food inflation, has also been emphasized in the literature. However, the issue of food inflation convergence has been largely ignored to date in empirical studies. This study explores the evolving distribution of food inflation rates in the EU‐25 member states using distribution dynamics analysis and covering the period from January 1997 to March 2011. This analysis assumes that each country represents an independent observation, providing unique information that can be used to estimate the transition dynamics of inflation. We show that spatial autocorrelation prevails inside the EU‐25, and, therefore, the independency assumption is violated. To ensure spatial independence, the Getis spatial filter is implemented prior to a distribution dynamics analysis. The results of this analysis confirm the existence of convergence trends, which are even clearer after the spatial filtering procedure, indicating, on the one hand, the influence of spatial effects on food inflation and, on the other hand, the effectiveness of the Getis spatial filtering technique. En la Unión Europea (UE), se espera que las fuerzas de inflación homogéneas prevalezcan debido a la mayor integración económica, sobre todo después de la creación de la zona de moneda única. Esta expectativa se relaciona directamente con el tema de la convergencia de la inflación, que ha ganado cada vez más atención por parte de los investigadores académicos y los decisores políticos europeos. Aunque el análisis de la inflación subyacente es de gran importancia para la política macroeconómica, el papel de los índices de inflación a niveles desagregados, sobre todo en el caso de la inflación de alimentos, ha sido un tema enfatizado por la literatura especializada. Sin embargo, la cuestión de la convergencia de la inflación de alimentos carece hasta la fecha de estudios empíricos. El artículo presente estudia la evolución de la distribución de las tasas de inflación de alimentos en los estados miembros de la UE‐25, utilizando el método de análisis de la dinámica de distribución (distribution dynamic analysis) y abarca el período comprendido entre enero de 1997 a marzo de 2011. Este análisis supone que cada país representa una observación independiente que proporciona información única que se puede utilizada para estimar la dinámica de transición inflacionaria. El presente estudio demuestra que la autocorrelación espacial prevalece dentro de los estados UE‐ 25, y por lo tanto la hipótesis de independencia estadística de las observaciones es violada. Para garantizar la independencia espacial, el método de filtrado espacial Getis (Getis Spatial Filter) es implementado antes de proceder con el análisis de la dinámica de distribución. Los resultados del análisis confirman la existencia de las tendencias de convergencia, que son aún más claras después de la aplicación del filtrado espacial. Estos resultados evidencian por un lado, la influencia de los efectos espaciales en la inflación de alimentos, y por otro lado, la eficacia de la técnica de filtrado espacial de Getis. 在欧盟中,由于区域经济一体化进程的推进,同质商品的通货膨胀盛行,特别是单一货币区域建立后,该趋势更为明显。这种演化态势和通货膨胀的收敛问题直接相关,已经引起了欧洲学术界和政策制定者的关注。虽然核心通胀的检测对宏观经济政策十分重要,但是分解通胀指数的作用,尤其是本文所强调的食品通胀也有文献中提及。然而,食品通胀的收敛问题却在实证研究中很大程度上被忽视。本文利用分布动力学方法对欧盟25国1997年1月至2011年3月的食品通胀率的演化分布进行分析。假设每个国家代表一个独立的观察个体并提供唯一的信息,可用于估计通胀的转变动态,研究发现空间自相关在欧盟25国中普遍存在,因此独立假设不成立。为了保证空间独立性,在进行分布动力学分析之前,先使用Getis空间滤波技术进行处理。分析结果证实了收敛趋势的存在,且该趋势在空间滤波程序处理后更为明显。它一方面显示出食品通胀空间效应的影响,另一方面表现出Getis空间滤波技术的有效性。     

Demand in the Spatial Economy: II Homo Stochasticus

Probabilistic preferences and choices and their connections to trip making and to distance-related demand are discussed. They are seen to aid aggregation. Risk aversion in retail shopping behavior and entropy maximizing as rational random behavior are examined. Elasticity of substitution is presented in terms of the covariance matrix. A Markovian phrasing and potential theory allow an analogy with deterministic choice: various applications of potential operators are outlined. Changes in utilities can only be modeled stochastically and some mechanisms are detailed. Price changes are random walked in time and space as a diffusion process. A fairly coherent theory of spatial demand emerges     

Impacts of Spatial Autocorrelation in Georeferenced Beta and Multinomial Random Variables

The literature is replete with acknowledgments that spatial autocorrelation (SA) inflates the variance of a random variable (RV), and that it also may alter other RV distributional properties. In most studies, impacts of SA have been examined only for the three most commonly used distributions: the normal, Poisson (and its negative binomial counterpart), and binomial distributions; much less is known about its effects on two other RVs that are utilized in GIScience research: the beta and the multinomial. The beta distribution—which is considered to be very flexible because it can mimic a uniform, exponential, sinusoidal, and normal RV—can be utilized to analyze the radiance of a remotely sensed image, for example. The multinomial distribution, a generalization of the binomial distribution, has been widely used for land use classification, and to describe land use change. The literature also suggests that RV impacts of negative SA, a neglected topic in spatial analysis, may differ from those of positive SA, at least for some RVs (e.g., the Poisson RV). The purpose of this article is to extend the investigation of effects of SA to beta and multinomial RVs, with both positive SA and negative SA assessed and contrasted with each other, using simulation experiments. The simulation experiments are designed to support this assessment. One of the major discoveries is that impacts of positive SA and negative SA behave similarly when a RV conforms to a normal distribution; however, maximum negative SA is unable to materialize for asymmetric RV, whereas positive SA always converges upon its maximum.     

基于ESDA的新疆旅游经济发展空间分异规律研究

在ArcGIS空间分析技术支持下,借助GeoDA空间自相关分析方法,以新疆85个县(市)旅游总收入及其空间差异为研究对象,分析新疆旅游经济发展空间分异格局,并用地学统计方法研究其空间分异规律,得出:(1)新疆旅游经济具有较强的空间依赖性,全局空间自相关特征明显,表现为集聚度高、异质性强、差异性大的空间极化分异态势;(2)局部上则表现为高高相聚和低低相随的两极分化格局,热点区以乌鲁木齐为中心,以昌吉州和吐鲁番、阿勒泰地区为延伸,沿交通网络向周边地区递减的空间分异格局,喀什、和田地区为冷点区;(3)交通可达性及旅游基础设施数量对新疆旅游经济发展起决定性作用,高速公路尤其是铁路对旅游经济影响最大;旅游资源优势度对旅游实现更加重要;交通区位对新疆旅游经济空间分异起着基础性作用.     

The Positive Economics of Inflation in Brazil

High and unstable inflation rates have prevailed in Brazil during the period 1985-92. All attempts to stabilize the economy have failed and ‘living with inflation’ has become politically feasible. The structure of the financial market in general, and financial adaptation mechanisms in particular, have played a crucial role in implementing and maintaining this political-economic option. Financial adaptation mechanisms sway the management of monetary and fiscal policies, with a direct influence on the credibility of macroeconomic policy announcements. More importantly, distributive asymmetries generated by those financial instruments, in association with differences in political motivation for different groups in the society, have created a stalemate regarding stabilization efforts. This article argues that, for the Brazilian case, the positive economics literature has failed to explain the inflationary phenomenon because it has not considered financial adaptation as an important linkage between political motivation of certain groups in the society and the correspondent desirable economic outcomes. The validation of social-economic objectives of certain classes became an important raison d'être of financial adaptation. Consequently, change of inflationary regimes carries costs and benefits far beyond those implied by fiscal reform alone.     

试论陕甘宁边区的通货膨胀与反通货膨胀措施

抗日战争时期,陕甘宁边区经济曾遇到了巨大困难,发生了严重的通货膨胀。其原因是与边区的特殊自然社会、环境,国民党的封锁,和边区在金融方面的一些措施的缺陷有关。1942年后,在中共中央的领导和关怀下,边区政府和人民共同努力,采取了一系列切实可行的措施,大大的缓和了通货膨胀对边区经济的冲击,较成功地保障了边区的供给,为中国人民的反法西斯斗争做出了巨大贡献。     

Hierarchical Integration: The Dollar Economy and the Rupee Economy

While contemporary globalization makes the world more interconnected, it also reworks and builds on existing cleavages and uneven development. This is an under‐researched dimension of the emerging twenty‐first century international division of labour. The core question is whether new developments (associated with exports, offshoring and outsourcing) spin off to the majority in the countryside and the urban poor. This article examines the relationship between the dollar economy and the rupee economy in India. It documents the ways in which inequality is built into and sustains India's development. The authors discuss other instances of multi‐speed economies and analytics that seek to come to grips with these relations, from combined and uneven development to global value chains. They present three ways of capturing contemporary inequality: asymmetric inclusion, enlargement‐and‐containment and hierarchical integration, each of which captures different dimensions of inequality.     

西部地区旅游经济空间变化趋势及影响因素研究

文章建立了一个旅游经济空间差异影响因素的分析框架,包含旅游要素投入、旅游基础设施、旅游服务设施、经济发展水平和旅游资源禀赋5个方面,并基于收敛理论的σ-收敛、β-收敛和俱乐部收敛等方法定量分析了2000～2009年西部地区旅游经济的空间变化特征及影响因素,得到如下结论:①12省(区、市)间旅游经济呈现出比较明显的σ-收敛和β-收敛趋势,表明均衡化发展的主流变化特征,但西南和西北两地区不存在俱乐部收敛;②影响因素分析显示,旅游业从业人员数量、城镇居民可支配收入和旅游资源禀赋水平对西部地区旅游经济的均衡化发展发挥了主导的推动作用,而星级酒店水平更支持旅游经济的空间集聚。在此基础上,提出了旅游经济较落后省份加快发展旅游经济、缩小区域差异的建议措施。     

Eigenvector Spatial Filtering for Large Data Sets: Fixed and Random Effects Approaches

Eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) is a spatial modeling approach, which has been applied in urban and regional studies, ecological studies, and so on. However, it is computationally demanding, and may not be suitable for large data modeling. The objective of this study is developing fast ESF and random effects ESF (RE‐ESF), which are capable of handling very large samples. To achieve it, we accelerate eigen‐decomposition and parameter estimation, which make ESF and RE‐ESF slow. The former is accelerated by utilizing the Nyström extension, whereas the latter is by small matrix tricks. The resulting fast ESF and fast RE‐ESF are compared with nonapproximated ESF and RE‐ESF in Monte Carlo simulation experiments. The result shows that, while ESF and RE‐ESF are slow for several thousand samples, fast ESF and RE‐ESF require only several seconds for the samples. It is also suggested that the proposed approaches effectively remove positive spatial dependence in the residuals with very small approximation errors when the number of eigenvectors considered is 200 or more. Note that these approaches cannot deal with negative spatial dependence. The proposed approaches are implemented in an R package “spmoran.”     

投资与青海经济增长

投资作为拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”之一,对国民经济的持续发展具有决定性作用。长期以来,青海经济增长的主要拉动力是消费与投资,研究投资与经济增长的相关问题,探讨投资需求扩张的新途径,对于加快青海经济发展至关重要。     

Provisioning an Early City: Spatial Equilibrium in the Agricultural Economy at Angkor,Cambodia

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory - A dominant view in economic anthropology is that farmers must overcome decreasing marginal returns in the process of intensification. However, it is...     

情报信息工作在知识经济中的地位与重要性

保证质量、提高效率是情报信息工作的准则,随着知识经济的来临,情报信息工作者应及时调整充实自身的知识结构,迎接新的挑战。     

人口变动与农奴制兴衰关系的再探讨——中古西欧农奴制兴衰的政治经济学

中古西欧农奴制的兴起主要并非自然经济的结果,而是当时土地丰富而劳动力稀缺的产物,地主贵族难以通过纯粹经济的手段来获取高额的剥削物品,因而引入了农奴制的超经济剥削方式.中古西欧农业的粗放经营,也使得对农奴劳动的监督相对容易.随着人口的增加,劳动力日益丰富而廉价,土地日益变得稀缺,以及农业向精耕细作发展,农奴制有自动走向衰落的趋势.     

The Economy of the Irish Rath

THE DISCOVERY of a Viking-Age burial in the Kilmainham-Islandbridge cemetery, Dublin, comprising skeleton, spear, sword-fragments and beads, is described from antiquarian MSS sources. The surviving pieces are detailed and the deposit tentatively dated to the late 9th or early 10th century. The grave-goods indicate one, possibly two, burials, one female. A brief survey of similar pagan burials in the British Isles and a close examination of this one would suggest a mixed Irish-Scandinavian cultural milieu for it.     

秦汉时期的农业和农村经济管理措施

秦汉统治者为加强对农业和农村经济的管理 ,采取了一系列发展农业和农村经济的重要措施。这些措施在一定程度上促进了农业和农村经济的持续和稳定发展 ,为秦汉统治政权的长治久安奠定了坚实的经济基础     

The Russian Stabilization Fund and Its Successor: Implications for Inflation

A senior Japanese specialist on Russia's economy and its oil- and gas-producing sectors analyzes the functions and performance of the Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation and the new system replacing it in 2008. The Fund, created to diminish the effects of possible future decreases in oil prices on federal budget revenues and to absorb excess liquidity in the economy, was expected to exert a major curb on inflation. The author investigates the extent to which the latter, inflation-fighting role of the Fund has been fulfilled, given increases in the country's money supply and in state-regulated prices within the natural monopolies. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E50, E62, H20, H60. 4 figures, 5 tables, 25 references.     

邢台地区商文化中的商品经济

从邢台商代遗址中可以发现,当地烧制陶器,已走上了商品化的道路,且有了明显的专业技术分工;从遗址中的铜器件小而微上,可以看出它并非使用者人人所能制造,是一种交换的商品;其骨的制造,更具有商品化的性质;当地已有流通的货币——海贝,说明当地已进入了较高程度的商品经济社会。