ANALYSIS OF THEORETICAL,METHODOLOGICAL AND EMPIRICAL RESEARCH IN THE JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE*

ABSTRACT. This paper examines the impacts of JRS articles in the areas of theory, methods and empirical analysis, as represented by subsequent citations reported in the Social Sciences Citation Index. A model relating the mix of theoretical, methodological and empirical research published in the JRS to subsequent citations is estimated. The time distribution of theoretical and empirical citations also indicates that the knowledge diffusion process in these two areas may be segmented.     

REGIONAL GROWTH IN THE SOVIET ECONOMY A MODEL AND ANALYSIS*

A multiregional econometric model of the Soviet economy is presented. It consists of 1,391 equations, with time-series information for 1965-1980. In conformity with the number of the country's republics, 15 input-output tables are incorporated. The discussion includes the methodological framework, the structure and equations, theoretical justification for the interaction between the econometric and input-output components, data and estimation, and forecasting results.     

SCALE ECONOMIES,REGIONAL EXTERNALITIES,AND THE POSSIBILITY OF UNEVEN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a model of regional development which attempts to explain differing patterns of growth in two regions. The model is an extension of Krugman's model of uneven development, but it incorporates not only scale economies within each region but also regional externalities across the regions. Depending on relative magnitudes of net scale economies of the two regions, the model entails different regional development patterns: uneven development, stable or joint development, or a mix of the two. The novel feature of the present model is that different regional development patterns can be explained within the same analytical framework.     

WORKER DISPLACEMENT AND JOB-SEARCH: A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL IMPEDIMENTS TO REEMPLOYMENT*

ABSTRACT. This study investigates the human, and in turn the regional, consequences of industrial restructuring in the United States. Our methodology presumes that labor market outcomes of displaced workers can provide considerable information on the structural properties of local labor markets, and subsequently upon the capacity of such areas/regions to reemploy additional workers. The examination follows two steps. In the first, a multivariate model of reemployment likelihood is developed and subsequently estimated. Separate equations are obtained for various resons of the country, a disaggregation that permits one to identify how postdisplacement reemployment, and its determinants, vary systematically across space. In the second step, the above estimates are decomposed into two elements, one of which is reflective of regional structural conditions. Based upon this methodology and estimates obtained in the first step, regions of the country are compared as to magnitude of their structural economic problems, and thus as to their capacity to gainfully reemploy additional workers displaced by plant closure or relocation.     

COMPARATIVE REGIONAL POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS: EX POST EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE EUROPEAN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND*

ABSTRACT. This paper addresses the issue of ex post impact analysis of regional policies in the European Community. The analysis is both methodological and applied in nature. After a concise overview of existing impact assessment methods, a two-step approach by means of an exploratory frequency method and an explanatory rational expectations-based model is proposed in order to provide an empirical framework for cross-regional comparative evaluation of the performance of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The seope and applicability of the method is illustrated by means of a case study for Dutch regions.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR REGIONAL MODELING AND IMPACT ANALYSIS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY BY LARGE MUNICIPALITIES IN ONTARIO,CANADA*

ABSTRACT. We propose a mixed fixed and random coefficients framework for regional modeling. The framework allows the presence of both the region-specific effects and commonality of responses across regions. Bayes solutions for estimating parameters of interest and for generating predictions are derived. Within a Bayesian framework a predictive density approach to evaluate the impact of changes is suggested. We apply the methodology to evaluate the impact of new rate structures on Ontario regional demand for electricity.     

THE ROLE OF ERROR STRUCTURE IN SIMULATIONS ON REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS*

Previous simulation experiments on regional input-output analysis have concluded that regional purchase coefficients are more important than technical coefficients in contributing to multiplier accuracy. This paper shows that the multiplicative error structure used in those experiments may have biased the results. A new error structure, combining a multiplicative and an additive component is introduced, and simulations are conducted on randomly generated models. The analysis shows that the results are sensitive to the relative magnitudes of the two error components, as well as to the closure of the model.     

A BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF A REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT INCENTIVE: STATE LOANS*

The luster of economic growth, the existence of depressed regions, and the fear of competition from giveaway programs in other states have all resulted in state governments adopting a rash of programs designed to encourage a strong manufacturing base for their economy. Many economists feel uneasy about the rapid spread of such industrial incentive programs as tax breaks, government loans, and industrial revenue bonds.¹ The literature of public finance, development, and regional economics contains many interesting studies examining the wisdom of these undertakings. This paper hopes to contribute by developing a method of benefit-cost analysis for appraisal of industrial incentive programs. Even though the model is constructed for and applied to the analysis of state government industrial development loans, the principles formulated should be easily adaptable to the assessment of other types of regional development programs. A secondary objective of the paper is to discuss the first empirical application of a model which accounts for possible differences between the social opportunity cost of foregone investment and that of foregone consumption.²     

THE EFFECT OF THE REGIONAL WIND ON AIR POLLUTION IN HAMILTON, ONTARIO

Summary: By plotting low-volume aerosol counts as indices of pollution in Hamilton a pattern of dual pollution cells of equal intensity centring on the downtown business area and the heavy industrial zone emerges. Pollution levels are twice as great under east winds with accompanying atmospheric stability than for winds from all other sectors. With winds from the easterly sector the industrial pollutants are forced and locked into the lower city. When a major source of industrial pollution disappears, as happened during the 1969 shutdown of the Steel Company of Canada plant, the industrial cell vanishes and the pollution count under east winds drops to a level normal for other wind directions. With a wind change from the east to the west new pollution patterns are formed within six hours. The average pollution count for the city drops substantially but in the east end it increases as the pollution haze formerly trapped in the city is released and carried eastward.