THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ESTABLISHMENT AGE DISTRIBUTION AND URBAN GROWTH*

ABSTRACT This paper explores the relationship between urban growth and establishment‐level dynamics through geographic variations in the establishment age distribution. Using administrative microdata, I find that faster growing cities have higher rates of entry and exit, and younger establishments, on average. The resulting differences in the age distribution account for 38 percent of the variation in MSA employment growth, leaving the majority due to differences among establishments of the same age. In particular, entry and the growth and survival of young establishments (aged five years or less) account for the majority of the variation in MSA growth.     

RECENT POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND GROWTH IN THE USSR

Data from the preliminary results of the 1989 census and Naseleniye SSSR 1987 permit analyses of age-sex structures of the Soviet population and distributions by civil divisions of natural growth rates, total population growth, urban growth, rural growth, percent urbanization, and growths of cities. The paper complements the treatment of census results by macroregions appearing in the November 1989 issue of Soviet Geography (Rowland, 1989) by summarizing trends emerging at a finer scale of analysis and providing recent background information on demographic components of population change.     

HIGHWAY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT AND COUNTY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH: A DYNAMIC PANEL REGRESSION ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT This paper uses recent advances in dynamic panel econometrics to examine the impact of highway infrastructure on aggregate county‐level employment using data for all 100 North Carolina counties from 1985 through 1997. Results are compared to models that do not take endogeneity of highway investment and dynamics of employment adjustment into account. Fully specified dynamic models are found to give insignificant results compared to these other models. Thus, when these issues are properly modeled, the results show that improvements in highways have no discernible impact on employment.     

PEACEFUL LIBERATION AND POPULATION GROWTH

The peaceful liberation of Tibetin 1951 is a milestone inTibetan history. It meant theend of feudal serfdom andthe emancipation of a million serfs andslaves. And, alongside with economicand social development, this also meantthe Tibetan population being able togrow after some 1,000 years of being ata standstill.POPULATION IN HISTORY. As nocensus had been conducted in Tibet forcenturies prior to 1951, there was noexact data with regard to the Tibetanpopulation. All that was available …     

THE COMPLEMENTARITY BETWEEN CITIES AND SKILLS*

ABSTRACT There is a strong connection between per‐worker productivity and metropolitan area population, which is commonly interpreted as evidence for the existence of agglomeration economies. This correlation is particularly strong in cities with higher levels of skill and virtually nonexistent in less skilled metropolitan areas. This fact is particularly compatible with the view that urban density is important because proximity spreads knowledge, which either makes workers more skilled or entrepreneurs more productive. Bigger cities certainly attract more skilled workers, and there is some evidence suggesting that human capital accumulates more quickly in urban areas.     

JOB CHAINS AND WAGE CURVES: WORKER MOBILITY AND MARSHALLIAN SURPLUSES IN EVALUATING REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH*

ABSTRACT In theory, new regional jobs yield two distinct sources of welfare gains to workers: (1) mobility gains achieved by workers as they move up job chains and (2) traditional Marshallian surpluses enjoyed by all workers as labor markets tighten. In the past, we have argued that the second channel is likely to be small relative to the first. This paper integrates a chain model (using PSID job change data) with a modified‐Marshallian model based on “wage curves” (estimated from CPS data) to formalize and test that argument. High wage jobs with modest wage–unemployment elasticities show Marshallian effects only 10 percent to 20 percent the size of mobility effects. Low wage jobs with somewhat higher elasticities show Marshallian effects from 40 percent to 70 percent the size of mobility effects.     

THE MEDIAN VOTER,VOTING, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT*

ABSTRACT This paper provides an explanation for the level of local government employment by developing a median voter model that allows for migration into and out of the city, a local government balanced-budget constraint, and voting behavior by public employees that reflects their role as both demanders and suppliers of local government goods. Unlike previous research, the model developed here explicitly considers voting (for the incumbent) probability density functions which furthermore need not be stationary. The main conclusions of the model are that, ceteris paribus, it is plausible that the level of local government employment varies inversely with the public employee wage demand and with the elasticity of the privately employed voting population with respect to the local tax rate but directly with the voter participation rate of public employees. Contrary to previous theoretical research, there is no determinate relationship between the level of local government employment and the voter participation rate of privately employed citizens. Inferences concerning the structure of local government are also discussed.     

A ROBUST APPROACH TO PREDICTING FLUCTUATIONS IN STATE-LEVEL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH*

ABSTRACT. Economic forecasting models are famous for performing well over short time periods and then suffering rapidly deteriorating performance when economic conditions change. This behavior makes composite forecasting models valuable in situations where large forecast errors cause considerable losses. A composite forecasting model for state-level employment is proposed here. This method is designed to protect state budget processes by producing robust forecasts of changes in employment and the related revenue collections. An application to Georgia nonagricultural employment is presented which demonstrates the benefits of this technique. The example shows that the method can forecast such series accurately without the forecaster having to choose in advance a single model specification to all economic conditions.     

CHANGES IN THE LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT AND OWNERSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM CALIFORNIA*

ABSTRACT We use the National Establishment Time‐Series database to describe shifts in the geographic dispersion of employment and ownership of firms. Focusing on data on business establishments in California, and establishments anywhere in the United States that are owned by firms headquartered in California, we find shifts in the operations of businesses headquartered in California to other states. However, this shift has been offset by increased employment in the state by firms headquartered elsewhere, resulting in California's share of national employment holding quite constant. The evidence points to increasing geographic dispersion of firms' operations, especially in industries with lower communication costs.     

SERVICE EXPORTS AND REGIONAL GROWTH IN THE POSTINDUSTRIAL ERA*

ABSTRACT. The role of service industries in the regional growth process has been debated for decades. Although the importance of services in providing an essential framework for the development of exports has long been acknowledged, their ability to initiate growth has never been generally accepted. In this paper the change in composition of exports from Canada's four western provinces between 1974 and 1979 is analyzed. It was observed that service exports increased more rapidly than exports of goods on both a direct and a direct-plus-indirect basis in 88 percent of comparisons. In absolute terms, the gain in service exports was equal to 89 percent of that for goods exports.     

EMPIRICAL POLYCENTRICITY: THE COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT CENTERS

Our paper empirically demonstrates that employment subcenters in large urban areas have important economic relationships with each other, and not solely with the central business district (CBD). Using data from Houston, Texas, we estimate polycentric density functions and show that “total” gradients differ from gradients using only own‐center coefficients. We model asymmetry by showing density is very different for centers with overlapping areas of influence. We conclude that subcenters have important yet heterogeneous linkages to each other in addition to the CBD, and that therefore the polycentric city is more complex than simply having additional centers mimicking the CBD.     

对城市人口分布与商业网点布局相关性的探讨

城市是人口和各种社会经济活动高度集聚的地域。满足人民的需要是城市商服、金融、文卫等项事业布局的基本原则。近几年来,笔者结合土地管理体制改革进行了人口分布与多种城市用地配置关系的探讨。本文是对天津市区人口分布与商业网点布局既互相吸引又在一定程度上互相排斥的关系的分析阐述。