Area‐to‐Point Prediction Under Boundary Conditions

This article proposes a geostatistical solution for area‐to‐point spatial prediction (downscaling) taking into account boundary effects. Such effects are often poorly considered in downscaling, even though they often have significant impact on the results. The geostatistical approach proposed in this article considers two types of boundary conditions (BC), that is, a Dirichlet‐type condition and a Neumann‐type condition, while satisfying several critical issues in downscaling: the coherence of predictions, the explicit consideration of support differences, and the assessment of uncertainty regarding the point predictions. An updating algorithm is used to reduce the computational cost of area‐to‐point prediction under a given BC. In a case study, area‐to‐point prediction under a Dirichlet‐type BC and a Neumann‐type BC is illustrated using simulated data, and the resulting predictions and error variances are compared with those obtained without considering such conditions.     

An Area‐Based Approach for Estimating Extreme Precipitation Probability

Accurate estimates of heavy rainfall probabilities reduce loss of life, property, and infrastructure failure resulting from flooding. NOAA's Atlas‐14 provides point‐based precipitation exceedance probability estimates for a range of durations and recurrence intervals. While it has been used as an engineering reference, Atlas‐14 does not provide direct estimates of areal rainfall totals which provide a better predictor of flooding that leads to infrastructure failure, and more relevant input for storm water or hydrologic modeling. This study produces heavy precipitation exceedance probability estimates based on basin‐level precipitation totals. We adapted a Generalized Extreme Value distribution to estimate Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency curves from annual maximum totals. The method exploits a high‐resolution precipitation data set and uses a bootstrapping approach to borrow spatially across homogeneous regions, substituting space in lieu of long‐time series. We compared area‐based estimates of 1‐, 2‐, and 4‐day annual maximum total probabilities against point‐based estimates at rain gauges within watersheds impacted by five recent extraordinary precipitation and flooding events. We found considerable differences between point‐based and area‐based estimates. It suggests that caveats are needed when using pointed‐based estimates to represent areal estimates as model inputs for the purpose of storm water management and flood risk assessment.     

Variable Resolution Spatial Interpolation Using the Simple Recursive Point Voronoi Diagram

This article introduces a procedure for progressively increasing the density of an initial point set that can be used as a basis for interpolating surfaces of variable resolution from sparse samples of data sites. The procedure uses the Simple Recursive Point Voronoi Diagram in which Voronoi concepts are used to tessellate space with respect to a given set of generator points. The construction is repeated every time with a new generator set, which comprises members selected from the previous generator set plus features of the current tessellation. We show how this procedure can be implemented in Arc/Info and present an illustration of its application using three known surfaces and alternative generator point configurations. Initial results suggest that the procedure has considerable potential and we discuss further methods for evaluating and extending it.     

A Scale‐Sensitive Test of Attraction and Repulsion Between Spatial Point Patterns

There exist a variety of tests for attraction and repulsion effects between spatial point populations, most notably those involving either nearest‐neighbor or cell‐count statistics. Diggle and Cox (1981) showed that for the nearest‐neighbor approach, a powerful test could be constructed using Kendall's rank correlation coefficient. In the present paper, this approach is extended to cell‐count statistics in a manner paralleling the K‐function approach of Lotwick and Silverman (1982). The advantage of the present test is that, unlike nearest‐neighbors, one can identify the spatial scales at which repulsion or attraction are most significant. In addition, it avoids the torus‐wrapping restrictions implicit in the Monte Carlo testing procedure of Lotwick and Silverman. Examples are developed to show that this testing procedure can in fact identify both attraction and repulsion between the same pair of point populations at different scales of analysis.     

Estimating Spatial Models Within A Disequilibrium Framework

Modeling demand in a spatial context requires careful handling of regional interactions. In situations where there are constraints in some markets that lead to spillovers to others it is useful to build this explicitly into the model. In this paper I present a theoretical model that is related to the disequilibrium and the spatial econometric literature. Under certain conditions the model may be estimable and an appropriate estimation technique that uses the EM algorithm, is put forward. A data set from the U.K. market for secondary school places provides a test for the procedure.     

Combining Geostatistical Methods and Hierarchical Scene Models for Analysis of Multiscale Variation in Spatial Data

Concepts from Hierarchical Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) can be combined with ideas from geostatistics to describe the multiscale structure of spatial data. Hierarchical ANOVA involves modeling spatial data as the sum of effects associated with processes acting at different spatial scales. These effects can be modeled as stationary regionalized variables, whose spatial structure can be described using the variogram. According to this model, the variogram of the spatial data is the sum of variograms and cross‐variograms of the effects. Whereas hierarchical ANOVA reveals the relationship between scale and variability, the hierarchical decomposition of the variogram relates scale with spatial structure. This analysis method can reveal otherwise undetected features of spatial data, and can guide further analysis.     

A Comparison of Three Exploratory Methods for Cluster Detection in Spatial Point Patterns

This paper compares the performances of three exploratory methods for cluster detection in spatial point patterns where the at-risk population is known. After reviewing two existing methods, Openshaw et al. (1987) and Besag and Newell (1991), an alternative method is introduced. These three methods are then compared empirically using two point patterns drawn from a disaggregate housing database consisting of 28,832 observations. Each observation in the data set contains attributes of single-family detached dwellings in the City of Amherst, New York. This paper provides some new insights into the performance of the three methods, as previous applications have used spatially aggregated (and hence rather inaccurate) data. The paper also demonstrates the utility of GIS for this type of spatial analysis.     

Nonparametric Significance Test for Discovery of Network‐Constrained Spatial Co‐Location Patterns

Spatial co‐location patterns are useful for understanding positive spatial interactions among different geographical phenomena. Existing methods for detecting spatial co‐location patterns are mostly developed based on planar space assumption; however, geographical phenomena related to human activities are strongly constrained by road networks. Although these methods can be simply modified to consider the constraints of networks by using the network distance or network partitioning scheme, user‐specified parameters or priori assumptions for determining prevalent co‐location patterns are still subjective. As a result, some co‐location patterns may be wrongly reported or omitted. Therefore, a nonparametric significance test without priori assumptions about the distributions of the spatial features is proposed in this article. Both point‐dependent and location‐dependent network‐constrained summary statistics are first utilized to model the distribution characteristics of the spatial features. Then, by using these summary statistics, a network‐constrained pattern reconstruction method is developed to construct the null model of the test, and the prevalence degree of co‐location patterns is modeled as the significance level. The significance test is evaluated using the facility points‐of‐interest data sets. Experiments and comparisons show that the significance test can effectively detect network‐constrained spatial co‐location patterns with less priori knowledge and outperforms two state‐of‐the‐art methods in excluding spurious patterns.     

An Absolute Chronological Framework for the Central‐Eastern European Eneolithic

Bayesian analysis of a large corpus of radiocarbon measurements from central and eastern Europe has been performed in order to revisit and modify archaeological models of the spatio‐temporal development of three Eneolithic cultures (the Funnel Beaker, the Globular Amphora and the Corded Ware cultures). While the results place the origins of the Funnel Beaker and the Corded Ware cultures in central‐eastern Poland, it was impossible to specify the place of origin of the Globular Amphora complex.     

ART‐P‐MAP Neural Networks Modeling of Land‐Use Change: Accounting for Spatial Heterogeneity and Uncertainty

Spatial land‐use models over large geographic areas and at fine spatial resolutions face the challenges of spatial heterogeneity, model predictability, data quality, and of the ensuing uncertainty. We propose an improved neural network model, ART‐Probability‐Map (ART‐P‐MAP), tailored to address these issues in the context of spatial modeling of land‐use change. First, it adaptively forms its own network structure to account for spatial heterogeneity. Second, it explicitly infers posterior probabilities of land conversion that facilitates the quantification of prediction uncertainty. Extensive calibration under various test settings is conducted on the proposed model to optimize its utility in seeking useful information within a spatially heterogeneous environment. The calibration strategy involves building a bagging ensemble for training and stratified sampling with varying category proportions for experimentation. Through a temporal validation approach, we examine models’ performance within a systematic assessment framework consisting of global metrics and cell‐level uncertainty measurement. Compared with two baselines, ART‐P‐MAP achieves consistently good and stable performance across experiments and exhibits superior capability to handle the spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty involved in the land‐use change problem. Finally, we conclude that, as a general probabilistic regression model, ART‐P‐MAP is applicable to a broad range of land‐use change modeling approaches, which deserves future research.     

Continuous‐Time Modeling with Spatial Dependence

(Spatial) panel data are routinely modeled in discrete time (DT). However, compelling arguments exist for continuous‐time (CT) modeling of (spatial) panel data. Particularly, most social processes evolve in CT, so that statistical analysis in DT is an oversimplification, gives an incomplete representation of reality, and may lead to misinterpretation of estimation results. The most compelling reason for a CT approach is that, in contrast to DT modeling, it allows adequate modeling of dynamic adjustment processes. This article introduces spatial dependence in a CT modeling framework. We propose a nonlinear structural equation model (SEM) with latent variables for estimation of the exact discrete model (EDM), which links CT model parameters to DT observations. The use of a SEM with latent variables enables a specification that accounts for measurement errors in the variables, leading to a reduction of attenuation bias (i.e., disattenuation). The SEM‐CT model with spatial dependence developed here is the first dynamic SEM with spatial dependence. A simple regional labor market model for Germany, comprising changes in unemployment and population as endogenous state variables, and changes in regional average wages and in the structure of the manufacturing sector as exogenous input variables, illustrates this spatial econometric SEM‐CT framework. El modelamiento de datos panel espaciales se realiza habitualmente utilizando una conceptualización del tiempo discreto (TD). Sin embargo, existen argumentos de peso para conceptualizar el tiempo de manera continua (TC). En concreto, la mayoría de procesos sociales se desarrolla en TC, por lo que el análisis estadístico en DT trae como consecuencia una simplificación excesiva de los procesos, da una representación incompleta de la realidad, y puede conducir a una interpretación errónea de los resultados de la estimación. La razón más convincente para el uso de un enfoque CT es que a diferencia de modelos DT, una conceptualización CT permite el modelado adecuado de los procesos de ajuste dinámico (dynamic adjustment). Este artículo incorpora la dependencia espacial en un marco de modelamiento con CT. Los autores proponen un modelo de ecuaciones estructurales no lineal (nonlinear structural equation model ‐SEM) con variables latentes para la estimación del modelo discreto exacto (exact discrete model‐EDM), que vincula los parámetros del modelo CT a las observaciones de DT. El uso de un SEM con variables latentes permite una especificación que da cuenta de los errores de medición en las variables, dando lugar a una reducción del sesgo de atenuación (es decir, “desatenuacion”). El modelo SEM‐CT con dependencia espacial desarrollado en el presente estudio es el primer SEM dinámico con dependencia espacial. Para ilustrar el marco conceptual SEM‐CT los autores presentan un modelo simple del mercado laboral regional de Alemania. El modelo está compuesto por los cambios en el desempleo y la población como variables endógenas de estado, y los cambios en los salarios regionales promedio y en la estructura del sector manufacturero como variables de entrada exógenas. （空间）面板数据通常基于离散时间（DT）进行建模。然而更令人信服的观点是基于连续时间（CT）进行（空间）面板数据建模。特别是多数社会过程均在连续时间中演化,基于离散时间的统计分析可能过度简化,使得对现实状况的表达不完备,并可能导致对估计结果的错误解释。相比于离散时间（DT）建模,连续时间（CT）建模最具说服力的原因在于在建模过程中允许足够多的动态调整。本文介绍了CT模型框架中的空间依赖性。把CT模型参数链接到DT观察值中,我们提出了用于估计精确离散模型（EDM）的包含潜变量的非线性结构方程模型（SEM）。包含潜在变量的SEM提供了变量测量误差的计算方案,使得衰减偏差（如反衰减性）减小。本文了提出的空间相关SEM‐CT模型是第一个动态空间相关的SEM模型,并以德国一个简单的区域劳动力市场模型为例,以失业和人口构成变化为内生状态变量,以区域平均工资和制造业结构部门变化为外生输入变量,阐述了该空间计量SEM‐ CT模型的框架。     

The temporary as the future: Ready‐to‐use therapeutic food and nutraceuticals in South Africa

The reconfiguration of food as a pharmaceutical in biomedical regimes has been considered by scholars along two axes: (1) food supplementation as humanitarian intervention, based on a specific value of life and delivered in ‘crisis’ situations with a short temporal horizon; (2) food supplementation as commodity, marketed as enhancing ‘wellness’ or potential, based on notions of risk in broad temporal frames. We consider nutraceuticals and ready‐to‐use‐therapeutic foods as they are deployed by state and commercial actors in South Africa in relation to two key figures: the pregnant woman and the HIV‐positive population. These biopolitical expressions of post‐apartheid regimes of knowledge, care and governance reveal how state distribution and the corporate marketing of supplements employ a future‐oriented logic that appeals to notions of power, energy and potential. Therapeutic foods in this context are thus not merely humanitarian technologies that reconfigure crisis as a chronic condition – the temporary becoming permanent – but are premised on new potentialities, in which the temporary may (re)shape the future.     

Inter‐person Separation: A New Objective Standard for Evaluating the Spatial Fairness of Political Redistricting Plans

The fundamental basis for territorial political representation is the presumption that people share greater common interests with others in closer geographic proximity than with people farther away. This principle is found in U.S. legal requirements that districts for the House of Representatives and state legislatures should not needlessly divide “communities of interest” and should be “reasonably compact.” We propose a new objective standard to evaluate spatial fairness of redistricting plans: the extent to which a delineation minimizes total distance between all pairs of people assigned to the same district. To date, the legal standard of compactness has primarily been thought of in terms of the shapes of political districts, but boundary shape may have little correspondence with how populations are actually clustered and dispersed. Inter‐person separation, by contrast, provides a direct, intuitive metric for evaluating the congruence of districting plans with the territorial basis of political representation. To operationalize an inter‐person separation standard, we propose a model and present a heuristic method for delineating comparator districting schemes. We apply the standard to the current U.S. Congressional Districts in the states of Arizona and North Carolina to demonstrate how inter‐person separation could be used to develop and vet future redistricting plans.