Candidate localness and voter choice in the 2015 General Election in England

Previous research has demonstrated a significant relationship between the geographical distance from a voter to a candidate and the likelihood of the voter choosing that candidate. However, models of this relationship may be mis- or under-specified, by not taking into account voters' perceptions of distance or not controlling for other possible factors related to a candidate's ‘localness’ which may influence vote choice. Using a two-wave panel survey carried out during the 2015 UK General Election, this article tests a more fully specified alternative-specific multinomial probit model of candidate-voter distance. We show that, although the effect size is smaller than in previous tests, candidate-voter distance mattered in the 2015 General Election, an effect that is robust to controls not only for party support and incumbency, as previous research had demonstrated, but also to measures of voter information, candidate presence and marginality. We also find that contiguity mattered: candidates living in non-neighbouring constituencies have a lower likelihood of vote than those living in neighbouring constituencies or in the constituency itself.     

Protecting England and its Church: Lady Anne and the death of Charles Stuart

In 1666, the English physician Thomas Sydenham determined that patients with smallpox could remain contagious for 41 days, that apparent health was no indicator of contagiousness, and that children were the most susceptible of contracting the disease. Yet in 1677, when 12-year-old Lady Anne Stuart (later Queen Anne) contracted smallpox, only 21 days had passed when she was introduced to her 1-month-old stepbrother, Charles Stuart, heir to the throne and likely Catholic king. Charles Stuart subsequently contracted smallpox from Anne, and the infant died of the disease at a time of heightened paranoia regarding the succession of a Catholic heir. This paper assesses the motives, means, and opportunity that may have led to Anne’s meeting with her stepbrother. The intention is not to suggest or prove that a deliberate attempt was made to remove the Catholic heir, rather, the purpose is to explore the reasons, implications, and possibilities that such an act may have occurred. In a period that resounded with conspiracies and threats to the Protestant succession, Charles Stuart’s death, regardless of whether the infection was, or was not, caused with intent, demonstrates a reversal of common fears where the Catholic line was extinguished to the advantage of the Protestant succession. This paper examines Charles’s death and its implications against a background of contemporary medical knowledge, and while it does not suggest that there is unequivocal proof linking Anne as an unwitting agent in a conspiracy, the paper nonetheless assesses the body of evidence that links Anne to Charles Stuart’s death.     

历史人类学研究的经典之作——读《都铎和斯图亚特时期英国的巫术》

1970年英国历史人类学家麦克法伦出版了《都铎和斯图亚特时期英国的巫术》一书,之后立即引起整个社会史和化史学界的广泛兴趣和关注。《泰晤士报》称之为“一部极高水平的作——真正的开创之作”。1999年该书再版时,出版商写道,“这本书的方法和结     

The Henrician legend revived: the Palatine couple and its public image in early Stuart England

By exploring the nature of the Palatine myth in Early Stuart England this article contributes to the debate on the religious and political polarisation in Europe in the decades before the Thirty Years War. In the battle of words that preceded the armed conflict of men, references to the national past and greatness were used and misused by the opposing sides as influential instruments of propaganda. The paper sets out to answer two basic questions. In what way was Frederick, the Palatine Elector, put within the context of English Protestant mythology? How did the public image of the Palatine Couple change after the disaster at the White Mountain?     

Geographical Scale, the 'Feel-Good Factor' and Voting at the 1997 General Election in England and Wales

Many analysts associate voting patterns in Great Britain with electors' evaluations of the state of the economy, whereby those who think it has improved recently are likely to vote for the government's return to power, whereas those who think it has worsened are more likely to vote for an opposition party. Most of these studies consider the national economy only, but data derived from the 1997 British Election Study cross–sectional survey show strong relationships between votes and evaluations of recent changes in the electors' (self-defined) home areas. This paper relates those evaluations, and the resultant voting patterns, to the 'objective circumstances' in the respondents' home areas, using unemployment rates as an indicator of local economic well-being. Using specially devised data for 'bespoke neighbourhoods' around each respondent's home, we show that the probability of a vote against the government was a function of both 'objective conditions' and 'subjective evaluations', and that there were significant scale effects in this: people apparently reacted to very local variations when making their voting decisions.     

约翰·密尔与社会主义

国内学界一般把约翰·密尔看做自由主义的杰出代表。而且,到目前为止还没有学者去试图把握他思想的全貌。实际上,密尔与社会主义思潮有相当密切的联系,但一些西方学者似乎又过高的估计了密尔思想中的社会主义的色彩。本文拟就密尔与社会主义思潮的关系作一简单梳理。