城市和区域产业发展分析的增长商测度

区域产业分析的常用测度之一是区位商,该测度用于一个地理单元（如北京市）中某种行业在全部行业中的比重与特定区域（如全中国）的同种行业比重做比较。然而,区位商是一个静态概念,不能反映一种行业的相对增长幅度或者变化速度。基于数学中"商"的概念和理论地理学中测度构造的一般方法,本文定义了一个行业增长商测度,用于比较一个子区域中某种行业的增长幅度与特定地理区域中同一行业增长幅度,数值越大表明一个子区域的某种行业相对于特定区域的同种行业的增速越快、增幅越大。进一步地,定义了一个区域增长商,用于比较某种行业的相对增幅与全部行业的平均增幅,数值越大表明某种行业在全部行业中的增速越快。采用信阳实例说明了增长商分析的应用方法。作为参照,定义、对比并讨论了区位熵和增长熵测度。增长商是一个动态的测度,简明易懂,在区域产业分析中可以与区位商功能互补,在未来的主导产业选择中可能发挥一定作用。     

美国大都市区尺度上的工业区位研究

工业化和城市化之间的互动关系体现在都市区尺度上的工业区位上。本文在新经济地理学和城市地理学所揭示的产品差异化和城市集聚效应相互关系的基础上,通过区位熵分析、赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数,对美国工业区位与大都市区间的耦合关系进行实证研究。结果显示:集聚于大都市区核心区的往往是产品个性化和定制化程度较高的行业;位于大都市区外围区的大都是产品依赖于城市市场,但标准化程度较高的行业;传统制造业则往往位于非大都市区。多数都市工业的市场集中度较低,而大部分传统工业的市场集中度较高。这不仅印证了新经济地理学的理论推演和城市地理学的行业分析,而且对包括中国在内的转型国家城市及其产业发展具有重要的参考意义。     

Determinants of Residential Location Choice: How Important Are Local Public Goods in Attracting Homeowners to Central City Locations?*

Abstract. A hybrid conditional logit choice model is estimated using data on the characteristics and destination of homeowners who engaged in intrametropolitan moves among 17 school districts within the Columbus, Ohio area in 1995. The model is used to test the relative influence of local fiscal and public goods versus household‐level characteristics in determining household location choices across central city and suburban school districts. Results provide evidence of both a “natural evolution” of households to the suburbs, due to job location, residential filtering, and household income and lifecycle effects, and “flight from blight,” due to lower school quality, higher crime levels, and lower average income levels in the city. In comparing the magnitudes of these variables, we find that school quality exerts the strongest influence: a 1‐percent increase in the school quality of the city district increases the probability of choosing a city residence by 3.7 percent. In contrast, the effects of household income and other individual characteristics are relatively modest. The findings provide support for a “flight from blight” suburbanization process that is dominated by differences in neighborhood quality between the city and suburbs. An implication is that investments that promote central city development and reduce suburbanization are justified on efficiency grounds if negative externalities are generated by increased concentration of poverty, crime, and low school quality.     

城市群产业结构与分工的测度研究——以中原城市群为例

城市群是国际竞争的基本单位,科学地测量城市群的产业结构与分工的程度,具有十分重要的实践意义。针对相似系数法和区位法等传统度量方法的不足,首次提出了区位熵灰色关联分析法,并以中原城市群为例进行了实证研究。结果表明,运用区位熵灰色关联分析法测度区域产业结构,不仅可以测度两地区产业结构的总体相似程度,而且还能反映地区产业的专业化、比较优势和区域分工的程度,可以定量地测度两地区产业的总体相似性,两地区不同产业的相似性。     

基于L-3D方法的云南省物流经济空间格局研究

为科学分析物流经济空间格局,基于经济地理学3D理论的密度(density)、距离(distance)和分割(division)框架,建立了物流经济空间格局的L-3D分析体系,利用地理集中度、物流经济联系强度及区位商等测度指标,分析了云南省物流经济空间格局的密度、距离及分割特征。结果表明:云南省物流经济密度的空间分异特征显著,呈现以昆明为中心的横纵扩散模式,外圈物流经济明显薄弱;物流经济空间距离呈现中心-通道发展模式,滇中城市群发展优势明显,西部边界物流经济距离较大;物流经济分割特征体现于昆明的区位商值较低,滇中城市群物流经济发展差异显著,以昆明为基准,大理及其周边地区分割严重。     

Inferences for Selected Location Quotients with Applications to Health Outcomes. 选择性区位商推断及其在医疗成效中的应用

The location quotient (LQ) is an index frequently used in geography and economics to measure the relative concentration of activities. This quotient is calculated in a variety of ways depending on which group is used as a reference. Here, we focus on a simultaneous inference for the ratios of the individual proportions to the overall proportion based on binomial data. This is a multiple comparison problem and inferences for LQs with adjustments for multiplicity have not been addressed before. The comparisons are negatively correlated. The quotients can be simultaneously tested against unity, and simultaneous confidence intervals can be constructed for the LQs based on existing probability inequalities and by directly using the asymptotic joint distribution of the associated test statistics. The proposed inferences are appropriate for analysis based on sample surveys. Two real data sets are used to demonstrate the application of multiplicity‐adjusted LQs. A simulation study is also carried out to assess the performance of the proposed methods to achieve a nominal coverage probability. For the LQs considered, the coverage of the simple Bonferroni‐adjusted Fieller intervals for LQs is observed to be almost as good as the coverage of the method that directly takes the correlations into account.     

COUNTERFACTUAL SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS

Recent contributions provide researchers with a useful toolbox to estimate counterfactual distributions of scalar random variables. These techniques have been widely applied in the literature. Typically, the dependent variable of interest has been a scalar and little consideration has been given to spatial factors. In this paper we propose a simple method to construct the counterfactual distribution of the location of a variable across space. We apply the spatial counterfactual technique to assess how much changes in individual characteristics of Hispanics in the Washington DC area account for changes in the distribution of their residential location choices.     

基于空间分析方法的武汉市创意产业空间集聚演化研究

通过ArcGIS利用区位商、最近邻距离分析、核密度分析与定向分布分析等多种方法综合分析武汉市创意产业空间集聚的演变特征。结果表明,武汉市创意产业总体呈集聚状态,依据发展水平差异可分为核心区、潜力区与待发展区,并主要集聚在汉口"核心圈"与武昌"潜力轴"上。城市内创意产业功能分布与集聚分布主要呈由内向外扩展的演变特征。但根据产业特征、发展基础与发展阶段的不同,不同创意产业部门在不同区域的集聚形态、集聚强度、空间演化过程及发展趋势存在差异。这些差异与创意人才机构、文化传播设施以及创意交流空间集聚存在密切联系。     

国内外城市居民职住空间关系研究进展和展望

城市居民职住空间关系是指城市居民居住地和工作地之间的社会空间关系,是城市空间结构的重要研究内容。体制转型时期中国城市居民职住空间关系正在经历着翻天覆地的变化。本文主要从职住空间关系研究学派、职住空间平衡和城市通勤、居住选择和居住空间分异等方面对国内外相关研究进行述评,认为国内相关研究应注重社会调查,加强个体层面的研究,从体制转型和个体社会经济特征等角度寻求城市居民职住空间关系及其演化的形成机制,并注重特殊群体,如外来人口、城市贫困人口和原单位制社区居民等社会群体的职住空间关系和社会空间后果研究。     

HAPPY IN THE HOOD? THE IMPACT OF RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION ON SELF‐REPORTED HAPPINESS

Previous research consistently finds that racially based residential segregation is associated with poor economic, health, and social outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between residential segregation and self‐reported happiness. Using panel data from the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), we begin by estimating ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions of happiness on a measure of MSA‐level segregation, controlling for a rich set of individual, neighborhood, regional, and state characteristics. The OLS results suggest that increased segregation is associated with a reduction in happiness among blacks. To deal more appropriately with the potential endogeneity of location choice, we extend the methodology to fully exploit the panel structure of the NSFH and incorporate individual fixed effects into the happiness equation. Contrary to the OLS results, our fixed effects estimates imply that blacks are happier in more segregated metropolitan areas. The paper discusses the implications of these results within the context of current integration policies.     

Concurrent assessment of urban environment and cardiometabolic risk over 10 years in a middle‐aged population‐based cohort

Inference regarding the impact of urban areas on health is limited by cross‐sectional studies assessing few dimensions and ignoring area‐level socio‐economic status. This study simultaneously assessed several dimensions of the built environment against incident cardiometabolic risk (CMR) arising over 10 years. It tested the hypothesis that, accounting for local area relative wealth, features of the built environment would not predict incident CMR. Initially, disease‐free adults in a biomedical cohort in Adelaide, Australia, provided address and clinical data over three waves of follow‐up. CMR was defined as the count of five clinical CMR factors. Built environment measures were derived for urban form, and natural, and food environments. Local area wealth was expressed using the relative location factor index. Poisson growth models accounting for within‐suburb clustering, age, sex, and education were used to estimate associations between built environment measures and increasing CMR. Fitted linear trajectories had statistically significant mean values of intercepts and slopes. CMR trajectories were associated with age, male sex, and low education. In models including measures of the food, natural, and urban form environments, per standard deviation increase, only POS count predicted incident CMR, which was more strongly predicted by relative location factor. Not accounting for local area socio‐economic status may overestimate the strength of relationships between health and the built environment. Inequity in accessible POS is robustly related to incident CMR.     

THE ASSESSMENT OF ERROR LIMITS IN THERMOLUMINESCENT DATING

This paper discusses known sources of error, both random and systematic; suggests quantitative limits; and proposes a consistent method for compounding them to yield an overall error in age, both for individual sherds and for the weighted average of a number of sherds from the same context. It is proposed that two error limits should be quoted for the date of a context: first, the standard error of the mean value as calculated from the experimentally observed root-mean-square deviation of the individual samples, and secondly, the expected overall error from the sources discussed in the paper. The former can be considered as a lower limit and relevant when comparing contexts on the same or similar sites whereas the latter is more realistic when comparing TL dates with radiocarbon or archaeologic chronology.     

产业集群理论的争论、困惑与评论

产业集群理论是近年来在学术界及政策界影响较大的理论之一。但产业集群理论仍是发展中的理论,在国外有很大的争论。本文介绍了西方学者对产业集群的争论,重点分析了产业集群空间界限及划分、产业集群与产业演化及区域发展、产业集群与全球化及产业政策方面存在的问题,在此基础上,进行了理论评述。     

基于普查单位的北京市就业中心识别与功能定位

运用第二次经济普查单位地理编码数据分析了北京市就业密度变化特征,并对就业中心功能进行了分析。北京市就业中心整体上仍呈现单中心格局特征,多中心格局虽有显现但并不明显。本文共识别出中关村片区、金融街片区和CDB片区等三个就业中心片区和上地、首都机场、曙光街道等十二个就业次中心。依据专业行业就业人口数量指标、区位熵指标,就业人口占同行业比例指标,将北京市就业中心分为7种类型,即大型企业集聚型就业中心、临空经济集聚型就业中心、制造业集聚型就业中心、批发零售集聚型就业中心、商务商业集聚型就业中心、金融集聚型就业中心、科研教育集聚型就业中心。传统就业中心因集聚效益、集群效应和锁定效应使范围进一步扩大,密度显著提高,中心功能也日益复杂,细分行业分化明显。     

ON THE QUESTION OF THE COMPOSITION OF ECONOMIC TERRITORIAL COMPLEXES

A variety of definitions of “territorial production complex” is analyzed in terms of the factors that enter into this concept of an integrated areal production unit of the Soviet economy. The author favors a definition that would encompass the interplay of all human activities within a given territory, from a major economic region to an individual place. The theory of cycles, developed by N. N. Kolosovskiy as an analytical tool for the study of regional economies, is criticized on the ground that it considers only the technological feasibility of combining a set of related industries into a so-called cycle, but ignores the issue of economic efficiency. The proposition is illustrated by comparing the location of a water-intensive and fuel-intensive chemical complex in Belorussia and Eastern Siberia. The technological basis for such a complex is present in both regions, but the economics favors an East Siberian location.     

邻里环境感知对中国城市居民自评健康影响研究——以武汉市为例

邻里作为城市居民的重要日常生活场所，对健康的影响引起广泛关注。本文选取武汉市南湖街道这一典型住区，运用多元回归分析，针对商品房和保障房邻里展开对比研究，解析不同类型邻里中居民的邻里环境感知对自评健康的影响差异。研究发现，控制个人因素后，体育休闲设施感知、归属感和安全感显示出对自评健康独立且显著的影响。而在对比研究中，商品房邻里的居民自评健康受邻里环境感知的影响较显著，而保障房邻里的居民自评健康受个体层面特征的影响较显著。因此，宜针对不同类型邻里制定差异化的社区健康提升策略。     

Location and Growth in the Brazilian Northeast

Abstract Clustering of economic performance across jurisdictions has generated considerable research on the spillovers and linkages among geographical neighbors. Much of this work, however, has been aspatial, implying that the influence of location attributes on growth has been largely ignored. In this paper, we examine the contribution of location to regional economic growth using municipio‐level data for the Brazilian Northeast—a historically lagging region of the country. We test if productivity among northeastern municipios is converging to a steady state and whether spatial externalities are linked to productivity growth in individual municipios. We find that, conditional on structural characteristics, productivity among municipios is converging at about 3 percent per year. Further, productivity in individual municipios is positively associated with own‐structural characteristics but negatively associated with productivity growth in neighboring municipios. This means that there are negative spatial externalities coming from productivity improvements in neighboring regions.     

DISPERSION DIAGRAMS: A NEW APPROACH TO THE DISPLAY OF CARBON-14 DATES

A statistical approach to the display of sets of ¹⁴C dates is suggested. All available dates of any particular culture are used to calculate the two quartiles and the median dates for it. The ‘dispersion’of the dates is then displayed as a bar showing the extreme dates, the quartiles and the median; thus neither individual dates nor their standard deviations are shown. This ‘dispersion diagram’saves much space when the dates of several cultures are to be displayed. The argument is developed that the inter-quartile range, which does not change very much when new dates become available and are added to the set, is a good index of the time span during which a culture flourished, and this range should normally be quoted rather than the mean, median or extreme dates of the culture. With samples of nine or more it can be shown by the Hypergeometric Distribution that there is a 97% chance of two cultures being different if their inter-quartile ranges just fail to overlap, so that this method of display is useful in assessing the overlap of cultures. The fact that the dispersion diagram contains within it a measure of the statistical uncertainties of the individual estimates and therefore can replace the standard deviation of each individual ¹⁴C date is discussed.     

Migration and implicit amenity markets: does incomplete compensation matter?

We first develop an empirical approach for generating measuresof wage over or under compensation (incomplete compensation)for location attributes. We then devise a method to test whethermigration is influenced by incomplete compensation in wagesfor location characteristics. An intercity wage regression isestimated where fixed effects capture the impact of site characteristicson wages. We then regress the fixed effects on a comprehensivevector of site attributes, where the residuals from this stagecapture incomplete compensation in wages. The derived measuresof incomplete compensation are included in a standard microdata-baseddiscrete choice model of migration. The results suggest thatincomplete wage compensation for site characteristics mattersin migration decisions, and the findings are consistent withtendencies toward spatial equilibrium in the distribution ofpopulation.     

城市发展指数指引下的我国收缩区域初步评判

城市收缩在全球范围内蔓延，致使以增长为假设前提的区域经济增长模型受到极大挑战。本文以县域单元为研究对象，利用2000年与2010年各县域单元的社会经济数据构建城市发展指数，在其指引下对我国城市收缩状况做初步分析。研究表明：①在城市化的快速进程中，我国县域单元出现收缩现象，特别是县、自治县、自治旗、旗出现较多数量的收缩。②发生收缩的县域单元共261个，大多数为人口较少的中小城镇；西部地区分布较多，且收缩面积较大。③收缩的县级行政区表现出一些共性特征：人口数量和密度下降、老龄化加深、医疗卫生条件较差、经济发展缓慢，财政赤字严重。这一结果有助于初步了解我国收缩区域整体格局，并呼吁研究者和政策制定者尽快针对这一问题展开研究，促进区域可持续发展。