Regional development and institutions in Hungary: past,present and future development

The author investigates what the transition from planned to market economy implies for regional development in Hungary. The focus is the role of institutional change to economic development of the regions. After 1989, new regional and local institutions were created, supported by the Poland and Hungary Action for Researching the Economy programme. The old three‐level regional administration was redefined, but resources are few and competences unclear. The new institutions’ ‘bottom‐up’ approach and their business‐orientation seem to match the conditions of the prosperous west, while they meet considerable difficulties in the depressed east. Alternatively, coordinated government action and cooperation between enterprises and administrators may represent a key to development.     

宁绍地区早期遗址群的量化分析

宁绍地区早期遗址群的时空变化是钱塘江以南聚落考古研究的重要课题。本文全面收集了这一地区的考古资料,着重从量化分析的角度,对距今7000～3000年间的遗址进行了考古地理学考察。在提取高分辨率年代序列的基础上,绘制出多幅遗址群分布地图,初步恢复性重建了宁绍平原考古时代的聚落群景观。     

A Statistical Method for the Detection of Geographic Clustering

Kernel‐based, smoothed estimates of spatial variables are useful in exploratory analyses because they yield a clear visual image of geographic variability in the underlying variable. In this paper I suggest an approach for assessing the significance of peaks in the surface that result from the application of the smoothing kernel. The approach may also be thought of as a method for assessing the maximum among a set of suitably defined local statistics. Local statistics for data on a regular grid of cells are first defined by using a Gaussian kernel. Results from integral geometry are then used to find the probability that the maximum local statistic (M) exceeds a given critical value (M). Approximations are provided that make implementation of the approach straightforward. Future work will address several other issues associated with local statistics that have been defined in this way, including edge effects, and the effects of global spatial autocorrelation on the choice of critical value.     

Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics of Areal Prevalence Rates under High Uncertainty in Denominator Data

We propose a new estimator of spatial autocorrelation of areal incidence or prevalence rates in small areas, such as crime and health indicators, for correcting spatially heterogeneous sampling errors in denominator data. The approach is dubbed the heteroscedasticity‐consistent empirical Bayes (HC‐EB) method. As American Community Survey (ACS) data have been released to the public for small census geographies, small‐area estimates now form the demographic landscape of neighborhoods. Meanwhile, there is growing awareness of the diminished statistical validity of global and local Moran’s I when such small‐area estimates are used in denominator data. Using teen birth rates by census tracts in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, we present comparisons of conventional and new HC‐EB estimates of Global and Local Moran’s I statistics created on ACS data, along with estimates on ground truth values from the 2010 decennial census. Results show that the new adjustment method dramatically enhances the statistical validity of global and local spatial autocorrelation statistics.     

遗址资料整理点滴（一）——关于陶器统计表

本文结合自身的整理工作实践．在认识陶器统计意义的基础上．提出一些构想：陶器统计的核心是器形;它在排队和分期中,占有重要的地位。而质地、个体数量、纹饰等不同的侧面属性在统计中尽可能的与器形建立联系,是资料整理和相关研究中要面对的问题。作为遗物．那些侧面的属性本身就是依附于器形存在的,因此．统计既是某些侧面属性的分析．也应当是一种综合,这样有利于读者和研究者比较全面的使用陶器统计资料。本文尝试提出了一种既可拆分有可综合的陶器统计表方案;此外,对于不同时期的遗址陶器资料,由于各自特点不同,在条件许可的情况下,还提出了设计一些反映陶器群个性的统计表设想。     

Reenacting ethnic cleansing: people's history and elitist nationalism in contemporary Poland

This article addresses the problem of the present‐day historical discourse in Poland by taking under scrutiny one specific event: the historical re‐enactment of the ethnic cleansing of Polish villagers by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, staged in a small town in southeastern Poland, Radymno, in the summer of 2013. It is based on research, carried out by the author and a group of students in Radymno and its surroundings in the period preceding and following the performance, as well as on content analysis of the press. The comparison of the top‐down political and mass media discourse with local responses to the idea of re‐enactment and, more broadly, local understandings of Polish–Ukrainian relations, reveal many contradictions. In attempting to understand them, the article discusses broader ramifications of the ‘democratization of history’: the political contestation, class rhetoric and societal tensions that are tangled up in historical debates.     

The Impact of Microfinance on Decision‐Making Agency: Evidence from South India

Evaluations of the effects of microfinance programmes on women's empowerment generate mixed results. While some are supportive of microfinance's ability to induce a process of economic, social and political empowerment, others are more sceptical and even point to a deterioration of women's overall well‐being. Against this background, development scholars and practitioners have sought to distil some of the ingredients that might increase the likelihood of empowerment or at least reduce adverse effects. This article formally tests the impact of some of the suggested changes in programme features on one particular dimension of empowerment: decision‐making agency. Using household survey data from South India, the author explores the importance of the borrower's gender and the lending technology for intra‐household decision‐making processes. It is shown that direct bank–borrower credit delivery does not challenge the existing decision‐making patterns, regardless of whether men or women receive the credit. These findings change when credit is combined with financial and social group intermediation. Women's group membership seriously shifts overall decision‐making patterns from norm‐guided behaviour and male decision‐making to more joint and female decision‐making. Longer‐term group membership and more intensive training and group meetings strengthen these patterns.     

Energy Colonialism and the Role of the Global in Local Responses to New Energy Infrastructures in the UK: A Critical and Exploratory Empirical Analysis

Governments, namely in the global North, are fostering the deployment of large‐scale low carbon and associated energy infrastructures (EIs), such as power lines, to mitigate climate change. However, when infrastructures are to be deployed, opposition is often found. Environmental justice—involving issues of distributive and procedural justice and recognition—and associated inter‐group relations, has been identified as a key aspect for local opposition. However, research has rarely examined local perceptions of environmental justice and associated practices, such as energy colonialism, within a global perspective. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach, we examine if and how different‐level intergroup relations and collective narratives shape people's social‐psychological and geographical imaginaries and responses to EIs. Focus groups were conducted with community members affected by proposals to construct high‐voltage power lines in the UK. Analyses suggest that narratives around England's colonial history—within Britain and beyond Britain—shape responses to EIs.     

Palestinian Water: Resources,Use, Conservation,Climate Change,and Land Use

This article addresses the future of freshwater resources in the Palestinian West Bank through a discussion of contemporary issues that each plays a vital role in determining the long‐term sustainability of freshwater reserves, such as water resource availability, trans‐boundary water issues, water reuse and conservation, changes in land use, and the potential impact of climate change on long‐term water management. Climate change and changing land use patterns are already altering this region's water resources. Future predictions regarding the long‐term effects of these changes are complex and therefore inherently uncertain. However, the consensus among most studies on this subject indicates that currently water‐poor regions such as the Middle East will experience even greater water stress in the future. Nearly all of the freshwater consumed in the West Bank is obtained from local groundwater supplies that are suffering overdraft as well as decreasing water quality. Climate change will exacerbate water stress by increasing overall temperatures, decreasing and fluctuating precipitation, and reducing overall aquifer replenishment. Expanding urbanization will continue to strain freshwater supplies by negatively impacting the quality and quantity of available freshwater. Water management in the West Bank is further complicated by total Israeli control over water resources, which often causes water delivery to Palestinians in this region to be marginalized. This article finds that Palestinian and Israeli water managers must plan for future water crises, which will likely be a result of the combined effects of increasing urbanization and climate change coupled with exponential population growth.     

Constructing the Spatial Weights Matrix Using a Local Statistic

Spatial weights matrices are necessary elements in most regression models where a representation of spatial structure is needed. We construct a spatial weights matrix, W , based on the principle that spatial structure should be considered in a two‐part framework, those units that evoke a distance effect, and those that do not. Our two‐variable local statistics model (LSM) is based on the G_i* local statistic. The local statistic concept depends on the designation of a critical distance, d_c, defined as the distance beyond which no discernible increase in clustering of high or low values exists. In a series of simulation experiments LSM is compared to well‐known spatial weights matrix specifications—two different contiguity configurations, three different inverse distance formulations, and three semi‐variance models. The simulation experiments are carried out on a random spatial pattern and two types of spatial clustering patterns. The LSM performed best according to the Akaike Information Criterion, a spatial autoregressive coefficient evaluation, and Moran's I tests on residuals. The flexibility inherent in the LSM allows for its favorable performance when compared to the rigidity of the global models.     

We Finished the Plan,So Now What? Impacts of Collaborative Stakeholder Participation on Land Use Policy

There is a growing movement toward collaborative stakeholder participation in environmental policy. Rather than calling for a reliance on government officials to solve environmental problems, this approach calls for empowering a community of stakeholders to contribute meaningfully. Scholars examining citizen participation have investigated the performance of such efforts. This study examines one important aspect of performance, the impact of stakeholder participation on policymaking at the local level. A multiple‐case analysis of county‐level, community‐based task forces working on farmland preservation planning in Ohio, U.S., reveals patterns of policymaking processes and the near‐term impacts of collaborative planning. These patterns are linked to scholarship using prior empirical studies as well as the Institutional Analysis and Development framework, which integrates physical, social, and institutional variables to examine collective decision‐making related to natural resources. Results indicate that the degree of policy change is associated closely with local contextual factors, rather than internal group factors often emphasized in studies of citizen advisory committees and collaborative groups.     

社会记忆与认同建构：松坪归侨社会地域认同的实证剖析

本文选择华侨农场和生活在农场里的归侨作为研究对象 ,运用社会记忆的相关理论 ,通过参与观察及口述访谈 ,剖析社会记忆如何作用于归侨的认同建构。本文提出 ,在对国家或地方的认同建构上 ,“归侨意识”始终贯串着归侨的集体记忆 ,认同建构是情景性的 ,流动的 ,是一个交织着多重利益的复杂的心理过程。本文希望通过实证研究 ,达到反思移民安置与地方融入这一社会现象的目的。对移民的安置不但是提供物质性安排 ,更重要的是营建一个和谐宽容的社会心理环境 ,使移民与安置地尽快融为一体 ,共谋发展     

The Paradoxes of Community‐based Participation in Dar es Salaam

The current discourse and practice of international development rest on the assumption that community‐based participation is an essential component of efforts to facilitate change across the global South. Such participation is thought not only to ensure efficiency and sustainability, but also to accelerate broader structural transformation by empowering individuals to exercise agency in relation to development. This article seeks to contribute to critical participation studies by analysing the broader processes and structures that shape participatory opportunities in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The author argues that by promoting community‐based organizations (CBOs), national and transnational development actors have produced and legitimated a system of popular participation that, in contrast to their claims, disempowers local citizens. Paradoxically, these CBOs have further contributed to the exclusion of the majority of community actors.     

Employment Change in Occupations in Urban India: Implications for Wage Inequality

This article analyses employment and wage change patterns in India for a period spanning almost three decades, from 1983–84 to 2011–12. Using data from the National Sample Survey Organization, the study finds evidence of job polarization (employment growth in low‐ and high‐skill jobs and decline in middle‐skill jobs) in urban India during the 1990s and 2000s, and employment upgrading in the 1980s. Consistent with the literature on job polarization, the article finds a reduction in employment share in routine task intensive occupations. The author argues that this reduction is a result of both mechanization and technological upgrading within Indian industry. On the other hand, an increase in employment share in both low‐skill and high‐skill occupations is argued to be a result of growing self‐employment and informal sector employment in urban India. The wage change patterns are largely consistent with the employment change patterns. The analysis suggests that structural change in occupation is an important factor for understanding earnings inequality in India.     

The Thomas Souls Ministry – Onto‐praxis,Dividualism, and Charismatic Catholicism at Lake Chambri,Papua New Guinea

The Thomas Souls Ministry is a prayer group founded by Catholics from the middle Sepik. It is led by a spirit of the dead called Thomas who takes possession of a Nyaura (West Iatmul) woman to preach, prophesy, counsel, and heal. While a prominent debate within the Anthropology of Christianity argues for radical change and rupture with the pre‐Christian self and society, I suggest that continuity within change is found in the way my interlocutors have made Christianity their own. I argue that the local concept of the person defined by aspects of dividualism and reflecting ontological premises of people's lifeworld has strongly influenced the way Christianity was appropriated. In current religious practices people put these premises into action and reinforce them in intersubjective encounters with the divine other. Analysing people's ‘onto‐praxis’, I argue that the Thomas Souls Ministry can be understood as part of a re‐empowerment process that re‐appropriates local meanings, spirits, and practices despite, and in fact against, the influence of the Catholic mission proselytizing in the region.     

Limits to Climate Change Adaptation: Case Study of the Australian Alps

Climate change is occurring and not being mitigated, motivating adaptation but adaptation strategies can have biophysical, economic, technological, and social limits. We review publicly available documents to assess how successful current and proposed adaptation strategies may be for the Australian Alps, including likely limits and potential collaborations and conflicts among stakeholders. Conservation managers, the tourism industry, and local communities have implemented or are proposing a range of adaptation strategies in the region. Some stakeholder strategies complement each other (e.g. invasive species control, fire management), while others are potential sources of conflict (water and electricity for snowmaking, year‐round tourism). Economic costs and biophysical constraints are the most important limits to these adaptation strategies. These types of limits and conflicts between different stakeholders on adaptation strategies are likely to occur in other regions and demonstrate that adaptation may only provide partial and short term solutions to the challenges of climate change.     

统计视角下的旅游业思考

从统计视角来界定旅游概念是旅游研究中达成共识的一种可行选择。本文以统计为视角,对旅游的基本概念进行了分析并对这一概念的优缺点进行了说明。然后从中国旅游统计的基本情况、主要特点、面临的困难、旅游卫星账户以及中国旅游统计发展的大体思路等几个方面对中国旅游业的测度进行了阐释。最后,从统计视角出发,对旅游研究中的一些错误观点进行了纠正。     

The Baha'i Faith: Distribution Statistics, 1925–1949

A survey of Baha'i global distribution statistics from the time of their first appearance in 1925 up to 1949. No official data for actual Baha'i populations was published at that time, and we have to rely on lists of local Baha'i councils (“spiritual assemblies”) and of places where Baha'is resided to get some sense of Baha'i distribution dynamics. Even this limited data enable us to describe a pattern of overall growth, from a presence in twenty‐nine countries and territories in 1925 to ninety‐two in 1949, from at least 573 localities worldwide in which Baha'is resided in 1928 to 2,315 by 1949, and 102 local spiritual assemblies in 1928 to 595 in 1949. Regional differences in distribution are discussed. The data shows a significant increase in distribution during this period but there is no evidence for any major corresponding increase in Baha'i numbers, such as began to occur from the mid‐1950s onwards.     

Comparison of GIS‐Based Logic Scoring of Preference and Multicriteria Evaluation Methods: Urban Land Use Suitability

Multi‐criteria evaluation (MCE) methods are useful tools to evaluate the land suitability for various uses and assist in the effective management of available land. Many common GIS‐based MCE methods, such as analytical hierarchy process (AHP), ordered weighted averaging (OWA), and a combination of AHP and OWA methods (AHP–OWA) are not able to fully represent all the logic that constitute a wide range of human decision‐making reasoning. Consequently, improved GIS‐based MCE methods such as Logic Scoring of Preference (LSP) method are needed. The main objectives of this study are to: (1) implement the GIS‐based LSP method for land suitability evaluation and (2) compare qualitatively and quantitatively the suitability maps generated by LSP and three GIS‐based MCE methods. This study was implemented with data sets from Boulder County, Colorado, USA for the case study of the urban land suitability evaluation. The qualitative properties of MCE methods and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) statistics were used as comparison metrics. The results indicate that soft computing methods and particularly LSP performed the best among GIS‐based MCE methods for the urban land use application.     

Gendered Structures of Local Politics in Turkey

Indicators offered by available international statistical data and observations of many researchers point out that women's formal political involvement at the local level is stronger than that at the national level for the majority of states. However, gendered political patterns in Turkey have been following a rather different path. One and the most significant contradictory aspect is that women's representation at local elected organs is weaker than the national parliament. This article, first, investigates the reasons for this relatively weak existence in formal local politics. The references of this relativity are both national formal politics of Turkey, and the dominant worldwide model. Secondly, the article tries to establish country‐specific links between formal and informal local politics concerning women's participation. The experience in Turkey has proven that women's local engagement does not necessarily propel decision‐making power and women's empowerment. Women's local mobilization in Turkey has been mostly limited to socio‐cultural and charity activities instead of central decisions on the settlement, and of efforts for establishing women's local political agendas. Moreover, as a very prominent factor concerning the maintenance of asymmetric gendered structures of local politics, women's movement at the national level has been lacking in systematic political interest in the issue until very recently. In this article, these pretensions and future prospects are discussed in terms of the actual global‐national circumstances affecting local politics as well as women's local conditions. To these ends, existing quantitative‐qualitative research, data and analysis, and relevant findings of the author's recent (2000–2003) original research, as well as her observations through participation in recent feminist activism targeting local politics are being evaluated.