我国旅游交通发展现状及研究述评

旅游交通作为旅游业发展必不可少的先决条件和依附基础,其发展状况对旅游目的地的持续发展具有重要影响。在分析我国旅游交通发展现状的基础上,指出当前我国旅游交通所面临的四个方面挑战。然后从旅游交通综合理论研究、旅游交通规划理论及应用研究、旅游与交通关联研究、旅游交通信息化与旅游交通地图研究、旅游交通管理研究等五个方向对国内旅游交通研究文献进行述评,并提出今后我国旅游交通的研究方向,旨在就如何发展我国现代化旅游交通提出合理化建议。     

MILL AND UNIFORM PRICING A COMPARISON*

ABSTRACT. In this paper we examine profit, price, output and welfare under mill and uniform pricing in a monopolistic spatial market with nonlinear demand, a general consumer distribution function, and a general transportation cost function. We show that if demand is convex (concave) then the optimal uniform price minus the average unit transportation cost is lower (higher) than the optimal mill price, output under uniform pricing is lower (higher) than output under mill pricing, and welfare under uniform pricing is lower (higher) than welfare under mill pricing, provided other respective conditions are satisfied.     

The Location Invariance Theorem in Weberian Space Under Uncertainty

This paper examines the validity of the location invariance theorem in Weberian space under various types of uncertainty. The main results are: Given that the firm's location is constrained to remain at a specified distance from the output market, the optimal location is invariant to any change in product demand if and only if the production function is homothetic for a firm facing demand price uncertainty, or if the production function is homothetic and both inputs are risk-neutral for a firm facing technological uncertainty. Alternatively, given that the distance from the firm's location to the output market is a variable, location invariance occurs for a firm facing demand price uncertainty if the production function is linear homogeneous. In the presence of input price uncertainty the optimal location always varies with a change in product demand. The results can include those previously obtained for linear stochastic location models as special cases and some are new contributions to the literature.     

Pricing Road Congestion: Recent Evidence from Singapore

The role of road pricing in travel demand management and congestion mitigation has been gaining support in many countries. Although the theory of congestion pricing is persuasive and straightforward, successful application of road pricing mandates that congestion externalities be estimated. Using data from a recent traffic survey in Singapore, this paper estimates congestion prices for alternative time values and vehicle types. These estimates are compared with the existing cost of area licenses, from which implications for economic efficiency and resource allocation are drawn.     

Probing A Traffic Congestion Controversy: Density and Flow Scrutinized

Probing a die-hard traffic congestion controversy, this paper scrutinizes two key variables, density and flow, under equilibrium versus optimal states. Optimization requires equilibrium flow to decrease under mild congestion, but increase under hyper-congestion. However, both increasing flow needed under hypercongestion and decreasing flow needed under mild congestion should be accompanied by decreasing density. Thus, inflow of vehicles should always be discouraged to either increase or decrease flow of vehicles for economic efficiency. Moreover, even when optimal policy requires equilibrium flow to increase, the optimal flow itself must decrease eventually as demand increases beyond a critical level.     

西安市交通网络综合通达性研究

以西安市交通网络数据为数据源,利用GIS空间分析技术,选取道路密度、道路服务指数、路网连接度和可达性模型四个指标对西安市交通网络的空间形态、空间分布、距离关系进行多角度分析,并在此基础上,构建了综合评价指标,分析了西安市主城区四级城市道路网络的通达性现状。结果表明:西安市的道路交通网络通达性呈现明显的空间分异,受历史因素、经济政策及自然环境等因素的影响,其通达性空间格局呈现典型的单中心多圈层结构,位于市中心的区域通达性最好,并在北,西,西南,南,东五个方向延展,这五个方向通达性递减幅度较小。研究对西安市交通网络的优化和扩展有一定指导作用,对城市交通网络布局和通达性分析评价进行了一定改进。     

珠江三角洲城市群交通问题与对策──日本近畿圈的实践与启示

从城市结构、交通系统和管理体制等方面对珠江三角洲和近畿圈两个城市群交通进行比较分析。指出珠三角交通存在城市交通系统供需不平衡,致使城市交通运输效率低下,进而制约经济持续快速增长等问题。得出了要使珠江三角洲城市群交通的供求关系达到平衡,必须积极借鉴日本近畿圈的先进经验,合理调配交通系统中"人-车-路"三者之间相互关系的结论。     

珠江三角洲陆路运输网络效率测度及其演化

构建运输网络效率测度模型,对珠江三角洲27个县域单元1980年代以来运输网络效率的时空演化特征进行分析,结论表明:相较传统的通达性指标,网络效率指标在识别交通网络发展状况方面更有效;珠三角运输网络效率空间分异模式与通达性空间分异模式有较大差异,网络效率低值点和高值点同时存在于核心和外围地区;1988-2008年,随着珠三角陆路交通网络的发展,运输网络效率空间格局从原有的南北向"走廊"分布态势,转变为东西向面状均衡分布格局;运输网络效率水平大幅提升,网络效率平均值从4.42减少到1.41小时,变化率达到68.09%。各城市陆路运输网络效率与其城市发展关系表现为高度支撑型、基本支撑型、基本适应型及高度适应型四类。     

交通路网中心性对土地利用强度的影响研究——以青岛市中心城区为例

采取青岛市交通路网矢量数据和 POI 数据，综合运用核密度估计法、地理加权回归模型和多中心性评价模型，从中心性角度解析了青岛市中心城区交通路网与土地利用强度的相关关系。研究表明：青岛市中心城区交通路网的临近中心性与直线中心性结构呈现“中心—外围”模式，中介中心性具有显著的点轴模式；商业、公共服务以及居住用地布局均呈现多中心结构；交通路网中心性与土地利用强度具有较强的相关性且相关关系具有空间异质性；商业用地和公共服务用地与交通路网中心性的相关性高于居住用地。研究揭示了交通路网与土地利用强度之间具有较强的依赖性，为城市规划提供可靠的理论依据，有助于进一步优化城市空间布局。     

清代新疆冰岭道研究

"冰岭道"作为天山南北之间的重要交通道路,其在清代新疆历史中的作用不容忽视,然而关于这一问题的研究却相当缺乏,缘此,本文在对诸多史料梳理的基础上,系统地论述了该道的命名;道路的台站、住宿与交通工具等建设;道路的里程;道路在军事、屯田与贸易等方面的使用;以及道路在清代新疆历史中的地位问题。并考证出冰岭道在道光年间那彦成的新疆善后处理中并未封禁的史实。     

乡村振兴视角下秦巴山区农村路网通达性评价与分区优化研究——以陕西省山阳县为例

交通是经济发展的命脉，路网通达性是衡量交通发展水平的有效评价指标。以位于秦巴山区的陕西省山阳县为例，采用网络分析、空间自相关与地理加权回归等方法，从分项评价、综合评价两方面研究农村路网通达性，并进行通达性分区；提取各区中对经济发展影响较大的分项因子，有针对性地提出了优化策略。结果表明：①山阳县路网通达性呈北高南低、由高通达性极核向外围递减的“核心-外围”空间分异特征。②通达性水平高的区域地形平坦，区内外交通条件优良，是山阳县的经济、政治及文化中心，对周边村镇有一定辐射带动作用。通达性水平低的区域区位偏远，地形复杂，经济发展滞后。③路网通达性水平与社会经济的相关系数在不同分区有空间异质性。最后，提出分区优化建议，以促进经济发展，助力乡村振兴。     

聚集经济与最优城市规模探讨

经济活动的空间集中是一个引人注目的现象,聚集经济是空间集中的重要原因之一。虽然外部性对经济活动的集中有重要影响,但要解释聚集经济的来源还必须寻求更微观、更基本的经济主体行为上的原因。每个城市都存在着一个最优的规模,这个最有效率的规模是由经济活动空间集中所带来的利益与所引起的成本之间的一个均衡所决定的。因此,在城市化过程中,必须注重城市功能与效率的充分发挥。本文结合规模收益递增和单中心圆形城市模型,分析了通勤成本、城市规模收益递增程度对最优城市规模的影响,讨讨了城市人均收入与城市规模之间的关系,推导了两种对立的力量所决定的最优城市规模。文中指出:在一定条件下,城市人均收入与城市规模之间存在倒U形关系;否则,在城市总生产函数中规模收益递增程度足够强的情况下,最优城市规模取决于通勤成本。     

基于非线性动力学模式的城市道路与人口的平衡分析

城市道路的发展状况已经成为制约城市社会经济发展的"瓶颈",许多地区采取了各种各样的措施来缓解交通压力,但是收效甚微,关键在于我们没有从根本上认识产生这一现象的根源。本文通过建立城市道路与人口的非线性动力学模式,分析城市道路与人口之间的关系。     

Modeling and Prediction of Long-Distance Traffic Flows Through the Example of Road Transport in the Czech Republic

The construction of large-scale long-distance roads brings an irreversible impact on the landscape and therefore its careful and precise planning is very important. For this planning we use data on the intensity of traffic flows on existing roads and statistical tools for the modeling of planned traffic flows. The main objective of this paper is the modeling of the existing intensity of traffic flows on highways and expressways in the Czech Republic by determination of the optimal distance-decay function. On the basis of the resulting model and the resulting distance-decay function, it is possible to predict the intensity of traffic in the event of the completion and commissioning of new sections of highways and expressways. The subsequent analysis will allow us to make a qualified prediction of traffic intensity in the event of the completion of the R35 expressway, or after the completion of the R35 and R43 expressways. Besides the intensity on the above-mentioned roads themselves, the paper also predicts the expected reduction in traffic intensity on the busiest highway in the Czech Republic, that is, on the D1 highway between Prague and Brno.     

《周礼》中所记交通礼仪研究

<周礼>虽是一部讲官制的书,但其中有许多关于交通礼仪的记载,总结为以下几点:祀行与祖道;轼礼;男女有别;吉丧之别;交通的等级.     

HEDONIC ANALYSIS OVER TIME AND SPACE: THE CASE OF HOUSE PRICES AND TRAFFIC NOISE

One consequence of the expanding road network and its associated traffic is increased levels of traffic noise. While the hedonic literature has consistently found a negative relationship between real estate prices and noise levels, research in the United States has typically relied on crude measures of traffic noise. Here, we reduce the measurement error of traffic noise exposure through a detailed model of noise propagation over the landscape. We then estimate the hedonic relationship between noise and single family house prices using over 40,000 transactions throughout the St. Paul, Minnesota, urban area from 2005 to 2010. We implement spatially and temporally flexible local regression techniques and find significant nonstationarity in the hedonic function over time and space.     

武汉城市圈城乡道路网供需系统的时空协同演化

将城乡道路网系统解构为需求、供给两个子系统,构建系列评价指标体系和引入耦合协调度模型,从地市、县市层面揭示了1995-2012年武汉城市圈城乡道路网供需系统的时空协同演化格局:地市层面上,武汉城市圈城乡道路网供给系统呈现出"核心-边缘"的空间生长趋势,需求系统呈武汉"一城独大"格局。城乡道路网供需系统耦合度由低水平向高水平发展,空间差异较小,协调度由失调向良好协调发展,呈现出同步进阶的态势;县市层面上,供给系统县际差异趋小,呈现等级圈层式的空间发育格局,需求系统也发展较均衡,呈板块集聚特征。城乡道路网供需系统耦合协调度整体水平不高,"核心-边缘"格局显著。     

A NON-GAUSSIAN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF RURAL RETAIL BUSINESS COUNTS*

ABSTRACT. Determinants of the number of retail firms serving a rural area have been investigated by drawing on demand threshold analysis to analyze cross-sectional data. The relevance of such studies to an individual community may be limited if it is characterized by differential levels or unique types of economic activity. Alternatively, conducting the analysis using time-series data on an individual community may lead to problems associated with non-normal and nonstationary data. These problems are addressed by formulating a state-space model of time-series count data. The discrete, nonnegative nature of count data is accommodated by using a conjugate prior for the Poisson location parameter. A guide function is used to link the prior to the state vector and Bayes rules are used for updating.     

A Bi‐objective Optimization Model for Designing Safe Walking Routes for School Children

This study uses a mathematical optimization approach to design safe walking routes from school to home for children. Children are thought to be safer when walking together in groups rather than alone. Thus, we assume that the risk of walking along a given road segment in a group is smaller than that of walking the same segment alone. At the same time, the walking route between school and home for each child should not deviate substantially from the shortest route. We propose a bi‐objective model that minimizes both the total risk (particularly, the total distance walked alone) and the total walking distance for all children. We present an integer programming formulation of the proposed problem and apply this formulation to two instances based on actual road networks. We obtain Pareto optimal solutions using a mathematical programming solver and analyze the characteristics of the solutions and their potential applicability to real situations. The results show that the proposed model produces much better solutions compared with the solution where each child walks along the shortest path from school to home. In some optimal solutions, only a small deviation from the shortest path results in a dramatic reduction of the risk objective.     

Impact of Pollution at a Stone Age Rock Art Site in Oslo, Norway, Studied using Lead and Strontium Isotopes

Naturally occurring strontium and lead isotopes were used to study the impact of anthropogenic pollution on a c. 4500-year-old rock carving in Oslo, Norway. Strontium analyses have shown that road-salt from de-icing of a nearby road has accumulated in the soil surrounding the carving. Upon rainfall this salt is redissolved and drains over the rock carving. Analyses of the lead isotopic system have confirmed the impact of traffic from the nearby road on the rock carving site, but also indicate other sources of lead in the Oslo area and pollution in general. The rock carvings at Ekeberg are at high risk as, apart from natural weathering, they are exposed to the deposition of road salt, emissions from nearby traffic, local and long distance atmospheric pollution and meteorological inversion effects during the winter.