Saints, Stalwarts, and Slackers: State Financial Contributions to Welfare Reform

Considerable literature finds that spending levels are important predictors of poverty rates, both in the American states and in western European nations. Those jurisdictions with the most generous support programs generally have lower poverty rates. This article examines state Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) spending levels in relation to national norms, the spending ability of the state as predicted by their total taxable revenue base, and the state's poverty rate. The analysis shows enormous variation in state per capita TANF spending, with many states spending far less than the national mean and their fiscal capacity. Most of the low-spending states have the fiscal ability to fund more vigorous programs but at optimal levels; some would still fall below the national mean. In return for improved funding, these states would be candidates for increased federal assistance. A few states with a high poverty rate and usually with large numbers of poor citizens are generous spenders, indicating that funding is one component of effective programs.     

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS FOR FINANCING HIGHER EDUCATION

It is an error to base higher education enrollment projections solely on birth statistics of twenty years earlier. Nationwide enrollment may show substantial increases during the present decade, and ultimately very great gains are probable. Federal support will. in the long run come to exceed the contribution of the states. The view of higher education as a private purchase of a consumers1 good, for private gratification and aggrandizement, is slowly changing to the salutary view that higher education is a public service whose benefits accrue chiefly to the whole society. An interlude of emphasis of federal tax-cuting need not necessarily mean that the fifty states will abandon themselves to fiscal austerity for higher education.     

The Spending-Service Connection

This research tests the relationship between state and local spending for health and hospitals, a set of health service measures, and three final policy outcomes—low birthweight infants, infant mortality, and child deaths. The analysis includes several proxies for service demand—state resources, percentage of single-teen births, and percentage of the population without health insurance. The multiple regression equations also incorporate a measure of federal spending on health and an indicator of state spending for Medicaid. This first stage of the analysis can account for only a limited amount of variation in per capita state and local health and hospital spending. Health expenditures, however, are prominently related to health workers per 10,000 population, while hospital spending buys hospital beds. The final step in the analysis uses path models. The results show that neither spending nor the intermediate-level health outputs (including a measure of prenatal care) are significantly related to the final three outcome variables. Single-teen births is the dominant influence in the final equations.     

HIGHER EDUCATION LEADERSHIP IN STATE LEGISLATURES

The distribution of higher education leadership in state legislatures is examined. It is based on questionnaire and interview information from 285 legislators who exercise influence on education policy in the fifty states, and one-third of whom give special attention to issues of higher education. These higher education leaders differ from education leaders generally in terms of their experience, their location within the legislature, and their effort and relationships. What explains higher education leadership as much as anything else, however, is the nature of the environment in which legislators find themselves. In focusing on eleven states, where higher education is of considerable salience, it is possible to discern how environment combines with other factors to produce such leadership.     

STATE REVENUE ELASTICITY AND EXPENDITURE GROWTH

Recent analyses and theories of public choice suggest faster public sector expansion in states with highly elastic revenue structures. This paper estimates the contribution of elasticity of tax revenues to the growth of expenditures in the 50 American states since 1960, based on elasticity measures for state revenue sources compiled by the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, an index of state tax structural change, and controls for federal aid to states, population increase, and per capita growth in real income. Results for 1960-1970 show a small positive relationship between revenue elasticity and expenditure growth, but this becomes weak and negative for 1970-1976. Spending has increased most in states with the least elastic revenue sources; these states have made considerable changes in tax laws, while states with elastic revenue sources have been more likely to cut taxes than to increase spending. Federal aid, rather than tax elasticity, is the best predictor of state expenditure growth, while legislative changes in tax structure have enabled states to keep pace with rising demand for revenue due to growth in population and real income.     

Multilevel Instruments for Infrastructure Investment: Evaluating State Revolving Funds for Water

In recent decades, the federal government has introduced complex, multilevel state‐operated revolving loan fund programs as an instrument for promoting state and local investment in national infrastructure priorities while limiting direct federal involvement in implementation. A federally funded state revolving fund (SRF) program combines features of a categorical matching grant to states and a subsidized loan program to localities, both of which should lower the effective price of infrastructure investment and therefore promote higher levels of infrastructure investment. However, little evidence exists to date on whether these programs stimulate new subnational spending or instead displace spending that would have occurred otherwise. We evaluate the stimulus effects of SRFs by examining the two largest such programs, the Clean Water and the Drinking Water SRF Programs. Analyzing 17 years of state‐level panel data, we find evidence that the flow of federal funds to states under the SRF programs stimulates new local investment in wastewater infrastructure, but not in drinking water infrastructure. In discussing several possible explanations for these divergent results, we argue for further research that emphasizes the intergovernmental features of this financing tool.     

The Demand for and Supply of Technical Information and Analysis in State Legislatures

With states making more substantive decisions in technically complex policy areas, the capacity of state legislatures to gather and use technical information and analysis is crucial. Applying a "market" metaphor, the article examines the demand for and the supply of technical information and analysis in state legislatures. The demand among legislators and staff is widespread and increasing, and the supply is varied in origin, importance, and quality. Reliance on sources external to the legislature—usually perceived as biased—is related to a lack of professionalization in legislatures, although the level of satisfaction in the available technical information and analysis is not. Identifiable barriers on both the demand side and the supply side prevent better use of technical information and analysis. There are ways to strengthen the relationship between state legislatures and a broad array of sources, as well as to educate the legislative consumer of technical information and analysis.     

Unions,Parties, and the Politics of State Government Legacy Cost

Many American state governments have made extensive promises to pay for employees’ health care and other benefits in retirement. Currently estimated at over $1 trillion in unfunded liabilities, these other postemployment benefits (OPEB) are creating a major fiscal problem for state governments. In this article, we examine the politics of OPEB. We seek to explain the variation in the generosity of OPEB across U.S. states. We argue that party competition theories do not adequately explain the outcomes we observe. Instead, we draw on the emerging Schattschneiderian approach to the politics of public policy to show that public union strength conditions a party's incentives to represent unions’ interests. In states where public sector unions are strong, unions can find their way into either party's coalition. We find that Republicans are more responsive to public union interests than either their ideological brand or prior research would suggest. It is only in states where public employees are weak that Republicans can act unilaterally and enact their preference for less government spending. To test our theories, we carry out an empirical analysis using a newly assembled data set of per capita OPEB liabilities across 49 states.     

African Union defense demand and spatial spillovers

The study of the determinants of African defense demand is of enhanced importance because of unique security challenges, growing defense spending, and changing African Union (AU) integration. From a political geographical vantage, this study presents the first analysis of AU members' demand for defense spending, which accounts not only for members' relative locations, but also for political considerations (e.g., state failure, coups, and armed conflicts). Our analysis marries the economics of alliances with spatial considerations that include members' contiguity, between-member distance, and contiguous threats. Given two-way causal concerns, we employ an appropriate defense demand estimator (i.e., two-step generalized method of moments) correcting for the endogeneity between a member's defense spending and that of the other allies. Evidence of defense free riding or relying on the defense spending of other AU members characterizes contiguous and nearby AU countries during 2002–2019. Defense spending is an income normal good, which generally increases with armed conflict. UN and non-UN peacekeeping troop contributions provide some free-riding opportunities within the AU. Given regional differences in armed conflicts and coups, the determinants of African defense demand are influenced by regional divisions.     

Geographical Leadership Mobility and Policy Isomorphism: Narrowing the Regional Inequality of Social Spending in China

The link between geographical leadership mobility and policy isomorphism is rarely discussed in the extant literature. We argue that the geographical leadership mobility encourages local executives to converge their development experiences in their original working jurisdictions and their current positions. The distinct Chinese political personnel system provides an ideal environment that allows researchers to examine the isomorphic effects of geographical leadership mobility. This research builds a dataset of local social spending between 1998 and 2011 as well as a database of the leadership mobility history of provincial executives in China. Results of the spatial panel analysis (SPA) demonstrate that the geographical leadership mobility (i.e., horizontal, top-down, and bottom-up) of governors stimulates the regional isomorphism of provincial education and health care spending. The empirical findings affirm the effectiveness of the effort of the Chinese central government in narrowing the regional inequality of social welfare provision through the geographical mobility of local leadership.     

Do nationalist parties shape or follow sub‐national identities? A panel analysis on the rise of the nationalist party in the Flemish Region of Belgium, 2006–11

In this article, we examine the steep and unprecedented rise of the New Flemish Alliance (N‐VA), a Flemish nationalist party in Belgium that succeeded in gaining almost thirty per cent of the vote in a couple of years. During this period, a panel survey among 3,025 late adolescents and young adults was conducted. Our analyses suggest that support for a sub‐nationalist ideology is far more successful in explaining a subsequent vote for the nationalist party than vice versa. In terms of supply and demand mechanisms, we find that N‐VA has managed to address a preexisting reservoir of Flemish nationalist voters (demand), rather than attributing to a development of a stronger Flemish identity among its followers (supply). We should therefore not overestimate the constructionist power of (sub‐)nationalist political elites for the development of (sub‐)nationalist identities.     

The Tortoise or the Hare? Incrementalism,Punctuations, and Their Consequences

In this article, we contrast the long‐term consequences of incrementalism and punctuated equilibrium. We test what the impact of each of these types of policy change is on long‐term budgetary outcomes for the American states. Policy scholars have applied both theoretical approaches to the study of budgetary spending as an extension of policymaking. Given the two contrasting paradigms of policy change, we develop the following line of inquiry: Does punctuated equilibrium create a different budget in the long term than incrementalism? We address this question through an analysis of American state budgets because the U.S. states provide a rich variation in both budgetary outcomes and political institutions. We use budget data from all American states across all government functions for the period between 1984 and 2009. We find that, first, state budgets and budget functions vary in their degree of punctuation and, second, the degree of punctuation in a state's budget function corresponds to smaller long‐term growth. Additionally, the kind of spending matters: allocational budget categories are more likely to exhibit punctuations.     

Policy Interaction in the Provision of Unemployment Insurance and Low-Income Assistance by State Governments

In this paper we investigate empirical relationships between Unemployment Insurance (UI) and welfare policies using a unique database covering 48 states annually from 1973 through 1989. We first document substantial variation across states in UI program outcomes. Having established that UI is so variable, we explore the simultaneous interaction between UI and Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), Medicaid, and total state and local welfare spending. Our econometric results indicate substitution between the two cash assistance programs, AFDC and UI, by state governments. On the other hand, states that operate relatively generous UI programs also tend to allocate more resources to Medicaid and other in-kind, low-income assistance programs.     

State Expenditures and Policy Outcomes in Environmental Program Management

Comparative state environmental research seeks to explain the factors contributing to intergovernmental environmental management. In pursuing the answer to this query, researchers have relied on either fiscal (expenditures) or nonfiscal (ranking) measures of state environmental effort. Respecting the debate surrounding state policy outputs and fiscal versus nonfiscal measures, we evaluate comprehensive state environmental management comparing spending and ranking measures in our analysis. Though pronounced differences do exist between the two models, we find pollution and state size to be the primary factors affecting a state's environmental effort no matter which measure is used.     

THE LONG-RUN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FEDERAL,STATE, AND LOCAL FISCAL POLICIES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses new estimates of metropolitan factor demand and output supply functions to study how federal, state, and local fiscal policies affect metropolitan economies. We illustrate our work with findings for ten metropolitan areas in five states for changes in state corporate income taxes, local property taxes, the federal corporate income tax, an investment tax credit, interest rates, public capital stocks, output prices, and tax and regulatory policies affecting gross wages. It is clear from these simulations that a policy that is nominally the same everywhere will have repercussions that vary widely across regions and cities.     

THE EARLY STATE MODULE: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

The Early State Module model predicts specific, archaeologically testable, spatial attributes for early states. Further, it suggests that social complexity develops as a result of interaction between equal-sized polities, and that degree of complexity and territorial size are related. The spatial patterns of some early states presented to support the ESM model are tested statistically and are found not to satisfy the predictions of the model. Case studies of non-state and state societies indicate that the spatial attributes of ESMs are not unique to early states, that interaction does not always lead to state formation, and that territorial size and complexity are not necessarily directly related.     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM THE STATES*

In this paper, we first develop a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth and summarize a source-of-growth analysis for the manufacturing sector of 48 states. As have others, we find little association between TFP growth differentials and output growth differentials for census regions. At the staterather than the regional level, however, we find a positive association between TFP growth and output growth. We use cross-sectional data to estimate the determinants of the variation in TFP growth. Two results emerge that are important for regional policy and for understanding national productivity trends. First, state investments in education and in transportation infrastructure may affect TFP growth. Second, energy price increases in the early 1970s had no differential effects on productivity growth across states. We also explore the determinants of manufacturing output growth and find that TFP growth, demand growth, wage growth, wage levels, and state corporate income tax rates are significant.     

State Implementation of Federal Environmental Policy: Explaining Leveraging in the Clean Water State Revolving Fund

The Clean Water State Revolving fund (CWSRF) program provides states with significant discretion to design, implement, and administer the program to meet their water quality needs. An important aspect of the program is the decision whether to leverage existing funds to generate additional capital for loans. This article seeks to explain the leveraging decision process, using three models as explanators. We conceive leveraging as a two-stage process—(1) the decision to leverage and (2) the decision of how much to leverage. By employing regression techniques, we find that the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) stated reasons for leveraging—environmental needs and demand for loans—are not significant in the decision to leverage, although needs are significant at the second stage. Likewise, there is limited support for Lester's (1994 ) "capacity/commitment" model of environmental implementation. A third model employing a larger range of independent variables is the best predictor of both the decision to leverage and the amount of leveraging. Furthermore, the factors important at each stage of the decision process differ substantially, reinforcing our conception of a two-stage decision process.     

The Politics of an Emergent Global Regime for Controlling Tax Competition

This article probes what I call the emergent global regime for controlling tax competition. Since at least the early 1990s, states have perceived that competition for investment, whether through direct subsidies or tax incentives, threatens to undermine the fiscal underpinnings of the modern state, particularly in terms of its provision of social welfare programs. As states have provided financial or fiscal subsidies to capital (especially mobile capital), they have had to compensate through some combination of imposing higher levels of taxation on other actors, running higher deficits, and cutting spending. Each has shown itself to have substantial problems, and the response of states has now come full circle: to reconsider the competition for investment that causes the fiscal problems in the first place.     

Effects of U.S. States' Social Welfare Systems on Population Health

Social scientists have studied the welfare state extensively. Many studies seek to understand the determinants of the welfare state; however, a few have explored the social consequences of social welfare systems, especially on health outcomes of the population. Even though cross-national comparative studies support the thesis that the welfare state regime type, which represents different levels of commitment on social welfare, is closely linked to population health, there is little research to support this argument at a sub-national level. To fill the gap, this study explores the effects of the U.S. states' social welfare systems on health using age-adjusted mortality rates as a proxy for population health. By operationalizing social welfare systems as three dimensions—public expenditures, tax structures, and welfare program rules—we find that more generous education spending, progressive tax systems, and more lenient welfare program rules help to improve population health. The model corrects for first-order serial correlation using Prais-Winsten regression methods and is estimated with state and year-fixed effects.