Examining Implementation of the National Voter Registration Act by Nonprofit Organizations: An Institutional Explanation

The 1993 National Voter Registration Act authorizes nonprofit social service organizations to conduct nonpartisan voter registration drives, with the aim of making the process more accessible for low‐income citizens and segments of the population historically underrepresented in the political process. Although more than 15 years have elapsed since this important reform was enacted, very little is known about the extent to which nonprofits have embraced this practice, and what factors explain their decision to do so. Drawing upon institutional theory, this article examines the propensity of nonprofit social service organizations to carry out nonpartisan voter registration and voter mobilization campaigns in a national election year. A series of hypotheses are tested using data from a random sample of several hundred nonprofit service organizations in the United States that were surveyed prior to the 2008 election. Findings suggest that institutional factors, especially state laws, are highly influential in shaping the decision of local level nonprofits to register voters. The article concludes with a discussion of policy implications of this study.     

Income Inequality and Voter Fractionalisation: An Empirical Study of 16 Multi-Party European Democracies

This article empirically investigates relationships between voter fractionalisation and economic inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient of income inequality and a new index of fractionalisation developed for this study. Our main findings are as follows. States with high income inequality have less voter fractionalisation. States with higher GDP per capita have more voter fractionalisation. States with high election thresholds for parliamentary representation have less voter fractionalisation. Eastern European states and states with high unemployment rates have more voter fractionalisation. States with greater ethnic fractionalisation have less voter fractionalisation. Fractionalisation has been greater in recent decades (2000s and 1990s) than earlier decades (1980s).     

The Greening of the Queensland electorate?

The Greens at the 2004 Queensland State election almost trebled their primary vote from 2001, an increase suggesting the party has already filled the vacuum left by the declining Australian Democrats as the State's principal Left-of-Centre minor party. This article argues, first, that much of this growth in support can be attributed to the substantial interstate migration to the State's southeast, a pattern that has contributed to a partial transformation of Queensland's traditional political culture to one more disposed to Green support. Second, given that this growth is set to continue, it is argued that the Queensland Greens are yet to maximise their vote. This article analyses the 2004 Queensland State election results to determine the impact of Green preferences under the State's Optional Preferential Voting (OPV) system, and to locate where geographically, and among whom demographically, Green support was strongest. A rudimentary profile of the ‘typical’ Queensland Greens voter is also offered.     

Rethinking voter identification: its rationale and impact

Voter ID is a contentious issue in electoral democracies worldwide. This article surveys arguments for and against voter ID in the Australian context, presenting data from the first election in the country to require it. The data demonstrate a differential impact on regional electorates and on electorates with concentrations of Indigenous voters. While the law in question (from the State of Queensland) was moderate in its overall impact, confusion created by it may have suppressed turnout. The law has since been repealed, but voter ID now has the support of a conservative majority on the Commonwealth Parliament’s electoral matters committee. We conclude that voter ID is not a solution to eliminating fraud, but an additional bureaucratic layer upon the ritual of casting a ballot and a hurdle with unintended consequences.     

The Influence of Local Contextual Characteristics on the Implementation of a Statewide Voter Initiative: The Case of California's Substance Abuse and Crime Prevention Act (Proposition 36)

Much of the scholarship on initiatives emphasizes the link between voting behavior and initiative election outcomes or the strategies employed during the policy enactment phase. Little research has considered implementation or whether initiatives ultimately achieve their intended goals. Although the initiative process provides a direct link between the people and policy, it cannot be assumed that upon voter approval, an initiative will simply be implemented in a meaningful and uniform manner within the scope of the initiative's original intent. Using a case study of California's Substance Abuse and Crime Prevention Act (SACPA/Proposition 36) I ask how local politics and other contextual factors influence the implementation of a statewide voter initiative. Using aggregate data drawn from each of California's 58 counties, results indicate that politics at the county-level, measured via counties' general ideological dispositions and more specific policy preferences toward drug abuse and drug offenders affect how they implement the initiative. Contrary to popular conceptions, results here confirm that initiatives are not uniformly implemented, but in fact, will be manifested in quite different ways due to local contextual differences.     

Vessels of progressivism? Tasmanian state girls and eugenics, 1900-1940

In the early twentieth century the notion of state children as a "burden on the state", born of a liberal bourgeois philanthropic tradition, was gradually replaced in Tasmania by a modernising notion of intervention in the name of national efficiency. Eugenic principles can be shown to have influenced child welfare ideas and laws, notably the Tasmanian Mental Deficiency Act (1920). However, despite public debate and legislative changes, the bureaucrats in charge of state children maintained their liberal philanthropic practices. In many cases the Children of the State Department clashed with the Mental Deficiency Board. State direction of children was also frustrated by children's agency. Girls were the target of many eugenicist (and liberal evangelical) reforms, but they resisted attempts to control their sexuality and make them "useful". In Tasmania, the modernising impetus of progressive arguments was offset by bureaucratic stasis, and the agency of the subjects.     

Current Literature Bibliography

Two specialists on the electoral geography of post-Soviet Russia analyze spatial patterns emerging from parliamentary elections and a constitutional plebiscite held in December 1993. In addition to spatial patterns in the election and plebiscite returns, reference will be made in the analysis to underlying socioeconomic factors believed to influence voters and to interregional variations in voter characteristics. The extent to which such factors and variations are associated with voter preference, party affiliation, and voter turnout is tested using standardized regression techniques. Implications of current patterns for important forthcoming elections are explored. 5 figures, 5 tables, 20 references.     

The Dimensions of Politics and Voter Behaviour in Preferential Systems: The Case of Australia

This project examines the dimensions of politics and voter preferences in Australia. Evidence from an empirical spatial analysis provides that Australian parties and voters are organised along a unidimensional socioeconomic continuum. Numerous individual-level factors, including party identification, ideology and a host of demographic and opinion variables, predict voters' positions along the continuum. Moreover, voter locations are shown to relate strongly to vote choice, demonstrating the importance of socioeconomic positions to voter behaviour in Australia. Finally, because this approach allows for a full examination of voter preference orderings, it is important to the study of voting behaviour and representation under preferential electoral institutions in Australia and elsewhere.     

Western Australia's Royalties for Regions program: a policy response to growth,regional neglect,and perceived disempowerment

Under the right conditions, compounding socio‐political and economic change can dramatically alter government policy. From 2000, Western Australia, a resource‐rich jurisdiction, experienced significant change owing to a once‐in‐a‐generation resources boom, which forced a break with earlier development approaches. In 2008, regional interventionism returned to the State via the State Government's Royalties for Regions program. Departing from the neo‐liberal tradition, the program allocated 25 per cent of the State's royalty income to non‐metropolitan regions, over and above existing regional allocations, and its success remains disputed. While it is easy to question the program retrospectively, the socio‐economic and political circumstances from 2000 to 2008 reveal a “perfect storm” of conditions enabling the transition from neo‐liberalism to interventionism in regional development. This paper sets out to understand the multi‐faceted conditions that enabled the dramatic paradigm shift embodied by the program. To this end, it examines the State's rural–urban settlement dichotomy, its staples economy, and the policy context leading up to the program. Following that, the paper proposes a causal framework mapping out the factors driving and rationalising the program. These factors are then examined in detail and include perceived rural voter disenchantment, ineffectual regional development policy, the State's mining boom, inadequate regional development funding, the contrasting fortunes of two regions (illustrative of the impact of growth, and the lack thereof), and the political manoeuvring during the 2008 election. Finally, the paper concludes by considering how the conversion of these conditions resulted in the State's most significant regional policy redirection in decades.     

National Uniformity,and State and Local Effects on Australian Voting: A Multilevel Approach

The existence and extent of influences arising within spatial contexts is an important issue in the study of voting behaviour. This paper extends previous Australian research by using the relatively new technique of multilevel analysis to draw together individual survey data from the 1993 Australian Election Study and ecological census data to investigate the question. The results show that, once individual voter characteristics are taken into account, influences on first preference voting for the ALP at the 1993 election were quite uniform nationally, with relatively small spatial variations. Moreover, those spatial variations which were present were at the divisional, not the state, level and can be almost completely explained by a very small number of sociotropic factors, especially a local economic prosperity influence and the well-known rural-urban cleavage. As far as influences on voting at the 1993 election at the level of individual voters are concerned, these multilevel analyses provide some new insights, as well as confirming some previous results.     

Parties,Participation and Outcomes: The 2008 Victorian Local Government Elections

In November 2008, voters in Victoria participated in local government elections under a system that has been subject to significant reform since the 1980s. This paper seeks to discern trends from the outcomes and identify significant structural features of the reformed system. With regards to outcomes, the paper highlights the high success rate amongst incumbent councillors and the strong sense of successful candidates being independent of political parties. The paper argues that these outcomes have been particularly influenced by the proliferation of electoral districts with relatively small voting populations or by the use of multimember electoral systems in larger districts. The variety of systems used underpins a localised and ‘clientelist’ politics that militates against the dominance of political parties over the contest. The paper also draws attention to the comparatively low rate of voter participation in an election in which compulsory voting applies. It argues that voter absenteeism was particularly noticeable in municipalities with large numbers of residents renting properties and might be explained as a form of ‘renters’ illusion’ impacting on voting behaviour.     

Introduction to forum: the 2000 presidential election and the Florida debacle in geographic context

This short essay provides a brief introduction to the 2000 U.S. presidential election as well as overviews of the five essays which follow. The purpose of this forum section is to provide a geographic context and evaluation of the 2000 presidential election while emphasizing the role of the State of Florida.     

Pooling the polls over an election campaign

Poll results vary over the course of a campaign election and across polling organisations, making it difficult to track genuine changes in voter support. I present a statistical model that tracks changes in voter support over time by pooling the polls, and corrects for variation across polling organisations due to biases known as ‘house effects’. The result is a less biased and more precise estimate of vote intentions than is possible from any one poll alone. I use five series of polls fielded over the 2004 Australian federal election campaign (ACNielsen, the ANU/ninemsn online poll, Galaxy, Newspoll, and Roy Morgan) to generate daily estimates of the Coalition's share of two-party preferred (2PP) and first preference vote intentions. Over the course of the campaign there is about a 4 percentage point swing to the Coalition in first preference vote share (and a smaller swing in 2PP terms), that begins prior to the formal announcement of the election, but is complete shortly after the leader debates. The ANU/ninemsn online poll and Morgan are found to have large and statistically significant biases, while, generally, the three phone polls have small and/or statistically insignificant biases, with ACNielsen and (in particular) Galaxy performing quite well in 2004.     

Participation and Representation in ATSIC Elections: A 10 Year Perspective

This paper examines participation and representation in ATSIC elections over the 10 year period since 1990. It attempts to identify patterns of participation and representation that seem to be emerging and what these might suggest about ATSIC's operation. By examining numbers of nominees compared to positions available, the paper suggests that ATSIC elected office has been fairly keenly and consistently sought and competed for by Indigenous people, though there may have been some slight initial reticence in the 1990 elections. By examining voter numbers and voter turnout, the paper suggests that voter participation nation-wide rose slightly from 1990 to 1996 and then largely stabilised in 1999. It also suggests that there have been significant variations from this national pattern at State and Territory levels and it explores some reasons for this. The paper also examines voter numbers and voter turnout at the ATSIC regional level since 1993 and finds that there has been much higher voter turnout in the sparsely settled regions of northern Australia and much lower voter turnout in the southern and urban areas. This is explained in terms of ATSIC program and expenditure priorities and in terms of polling place access. The final two sections of the paper examine the representation of women and Torres Strait Islanders among ATSIC elected representatives. Both are seen as significant issues which should be of some ongoing concern within ATSIC, alongside the issue of the southern/northern difference in voter participation.     

The Impact of Proportional Representation on Turnout: Evidence from New Zealand

Theories of voter turnout assume that institutional arrangements can alter incentives for participation. Countries with proportional representation (PR) are assumed to increase the incentives to participate because they reduce the proportion of votes that are wasted, giving voters a stronger incentive to participate and parties a stronger incentive to mobilise voters. This paper departs from previous cross-national studies by employing individual-level data during a transition between electoral systems in one country. We used survey data collected before and after electoral reform in New Zealand to examine patterns of participation among political minorities. As a direct test of individual change, the analysis was supplemented with survey data from the last election held under first past the post (FPP) merged with validated participation data from the following election held under PR. We found that the adoption of PR in New Zealand has succeeded initially in fostering more positive attitudes about the efficacy of voting. In New Zealand's first election held under PR, voters who were on the extreme left were significantly more likely to participate than previously, leading to an overall increase in turnout.     

The Voting Behavior of Kuwaiti Citizens in the 2006 Parliamentary Elections: an Analytical Field Study

This study was designed to investigate the voting behavior of the Kuwaiti citizens during the Parliamentary elections that took place in 2006. In a more specific way, the study tried to answer some questions related to the theoretical framework of voting behavior. These questions were concerned with who voted, and for whom? And why did they select that candidate? The study proceeded to scrutinize the factors that influenced the voter to choose candidates from certain tendencies. A questionnaire was designed as a tool to collect the data necessary to answer the study questions. The questionnaire included many sections, each of which was tailored to investigate a group of related variables. For the purpose of this study, different statistical analysis techniques were manipulated to process the data. The analysis of the study data was instrumental in drawing some conclusions that can help understand the voting behavior of the Kuwaiti citizens in that election.     

An Analysis of Provincial,Urban and Ethnic Loyalties in Fiji's 2014 Election

ABSTRACT

For the eight years prior to the September 2014 election in Fiji, no data were available that could enable observers to gauge the extent of support for the Bainimarama government. During that period, a range of conflicting claims emerged about shifting political loyalties within Fiji, largely based on anecdotal evidence. This paper makes use of the micro-level September 2014 election results to enquire about rural/urban, ethnic, class and provincial bases of support for the major parties. It finds that backing for the main opposition party was concentrated in areas with small populations, high levels of out-migration and relatively low voter turnout. Conversely support for the incumbent government was strongest on the more densely populated main island of Viti Levu, particularly in the fastest growing western part of that island.     

Voters on the move: The political effectiveness of migration and its effects on state partisan composition

Recent population forecasts issued by the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that by 2030 Sunbelt migration could result in two-thirds of all Americans living in the South and West. What's more, 30% of all Americans could live in California, Texas, and Florida (U.S. Census Bureau, 2005). Regardless of whether such high levels of continued Sunbelt migration occur or other patterns emerge, population movement will have electoral implications as the composition of migration streams change the balance of party identifiers at both origins and destinations. To illustrate how migration streams can exhibit very different levels of ‘political effectiveness,’ this research substantively addresses three key issues under-examined in the current literature: 1) the ability of migration to both reinforce and dilute party strength, 2) the changes in partisanship at the origin and destination of migration streams effected through processes analogous to ‘packing’ and ‘cracking’ in electoral redistricting literature, and 3) the importance of migration selectivity. This research uses an innovative, albeit far-from-precision method to suggest how recent U.S. migration trends may portend changes in Republican and Democratic partisanship. Using 2000 Presidential election exit polls by state, along with 1995–2000 PUMS migration data, individual party identification is inferred from individual migrant characteristics. This research calls attention to and argues for research to address the highly complex relationships of migration with electoral geographies.     

奉天省第一届国会议员选举析论

民初国会议员的选举是国家权力机关的选举,是真正具有资产阶级民主制度意义的选举,因此,它具有开创性的意义。从奉天省的选举来看,虽然有各种问题存在,但基本上是按照法定程序进行的。在选举过程中出现的问题,被揭示出来后,有的经过协调,重新举行选举,有的进入诉讼程序,具备了一定的公开性。通过国会议员选举这个平台,各个政党进行了多种多样的竞选活动,使民初政坛首次出现了多样的政治声音。从奉天省第一届国会议员选举的实际过程来看,基本上体现了现代选举制度的法制化、公开化、规范化原则。但我们也看到,这次选举中所表现出来的选民占人口比例过低、选民漏登记、选举管理疏漏、竞选失范等等问题,都说明中国的选举制度还仅仅是一个开始,还有很长的路要走。     

The Politics of Cognitive Dissonance: Spin,the Media,and Race (and Ethnicity) in the 2008 US Presidential Election

This article examines the roles of spin, the media, and race (and ethnicity) in influencing voter behavior in the 2008 US presidential election. It invokes the concept of cognitive dissonance to explain how political strategists effectively propagandize – i.e., “reinvent their candidates” and “reinvent their opponents' actual record” – in order to successfully garner votes for their candidates. In particular, it considers spin and how spin and the media are used to shape public opinion by causing voters to distrust the veracity, credentials, and records of opposing candidates and to set the policy agenda. It also discusses how race, ethnicity, gender, and policy issues were used in the 2008 US presidential election campaign, and describes the impact of “spinning” on voter behavior and the election outcome. Equally important, it discusses the implications of the Obama victory for Canadian governance in two pivotal areas: domestic race relations and direct parliamentary representation of minorities. The article closes with a brief discussion of the symbolism attributed to Barack Obama's electoral victory by both American and Canadian voters.