Analysis of Interregional Labor Migration in Spain Using Gross Flows

In this paper we study the economic determinants of Spanish interregional labor force flows from an aggregate perspective. The study is based on a matching model of the labor market applied to migration, and uses gross rather than net flows as other studies do. Among the main results, we find that unemployment increases out-migration because unemployed people search more actively, but when the unemployment rate is above a certain level this effect is reduced. We also find that the rate of change of relative wages is a significant determinant of migration in Spain.     

Regional Fertility Differentials and the Effect of Migration: An Analysis of U.S. State-level Data

This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, the influence of interregional migration on regional fertility differentials. Specifically, it tests the hypothesis that regions that are closely linked through migration have, all else held constant, a lower differential in fertility than regions that are relatively isolated from one another. A model linking the fertility differential between two states to migration as well as a number of socioeconomic variables is articulated. The model is tested by means of a randomization procedure using U.S. state-level data for 1980. Results support the hypothesis that an increasing volume of interregional migration tends to lower regional fertility differentials.     

METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, 1966–1982

This paper discusses broad population movements within and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions in Canada during the recent past. It is based on an annual series of aggregate migration at the metropolitan level. Three complementary approaches are used in order to distill information from this vast array of interregional flows. The first is based on net migration. The second, disequilibrium analysis, is based on the difference between the observed population shares of regions and a set of calculated steady-state population shares which would result if the currently observed set of interregional migration rates remained constant. Both approaches indicate short-term effects of migration on the evolving pattern of regional growth and decline. The third approach, based on aggregate interregional flows, allows one to observe some changes in migration behaviour which are not made evident by the first two approaches.     

A Flexible Mathematical Programming Model to Estimate Interregional Input–Output Accounts*

Abstract. This study implements and tests a mathematical programming model to estimate interregional, interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions based on an interregional accounting framework and initial information of interregional shipments. A national input–output (IO) table, regional data on gross output, value‐added, exports, imports, and final demand at sector level are used as inputs to generate an interregional IO account that reconciles regional economic statistics and interregional transaction data. The model is tested using data from a multiregional global IO database and shows remarkable capacity to discover true interregional trade patterns from highly distorted initial estimates.     

Time-series modeling of gross migration and dynamic equilibrium

Firstly, the high association between in- and out-migration is investigated in a time-series context and modeled according to three categories: 1) job transfer, 2) job search and marriage, and 3) return migration. Under certain coditions it is shown that aggregation of these migrations yields a bivariate time-series model having feedbacks in both directions. Secondly, the recent phenomenon of sharp changes in net migration seems to be discontinuous and, hence, catastrophic modeling [Casetti (1981) may be appropriate. However, this paper considers gross migration between cores (metropolitan areas) and peripheries (rest of the nation) for which a continuous function seems adequate. This is done by introducing a multivariate time-series model. This model is empirically supported, especially in Japan, divided into 32 regions, by t-tests and Durbin-Watson ratios, although it excludes economic variables such as employment growth and wage differentials. This may imply that the recent dispersal from core to peripheral regions could be explained primarily by feedback from return migrants. Finallym, provided future streams of gross migration follow the past trends given by simultaneous equation estimates, in-migration and out-migration would approach a stable state in most regions. Irrespective of random shocks in the future, in- and out-migration would tend to approach a stable equilibrium. According to the estimation of the stable states, the 45 core regions in the US would continue to lose population through net outflows while those in Japan would continue to gain. The present model may thus be valid only for short-term forecasts. By introducing feedback and lag structures, however, it does offer one explanation for the recent population turnaround.     

Interregional Migration Modeling via Entropy and Information Theory

In attempting to model gross migration flows, as distinct from net flows, entropy and information theory models supplement those from the demographic tradition. However, clear differences exist between these two classes, including the type of origin and destination information which needs to be supplied, the relationship between the overall decision to migrate and the conditional choice of destination, the role of behavioral variables other than distance, and the expected predictive performance. In this paper, an enhanced interregional migration model is introduced which attempts a further integration of both the above classes. A linear version of the model is used for exploratory data analysis on a large Australian population census data set. Several alternative hypotheses are then tested with the general model. Some guidelines are also indicated toward developing a fully dynamic version of the model as well as a formal hierarchical framework.     

Employment Opportunities,Wages and International Migration in Sweden 1970–1989

In this study I focus on the impact of aggregate labor turnover and regional labor market conditions on gross in- and out-migration within the framework of a neoclassical flexible-wage (equilibrium) model and a fixed-wage (labor-market disequilibrium) model. Using annual panel data on internal gross migration flows in Sweden from 1970 to 1989, I find that regional differences in employment opportunities have the expected effects on migration. The empirical relationship between real wages and gross migration flows is found to be less congruent with theory implications, indicating that compensated regional income prospects are equalized primarily via the interaction between employment opportunities and gross migration flows. Cyclical changes in hirings are shown to have a robust and strongly significant positive scale effect on migration.     

The State of the Art in Modeling Migration in LDCS: A Comment

Early research on migration in LDCs, initially motivated by labor market postulates offered by Harris and Todaro, built upon general equilibrium models of interregional trade. In contrast, recent research on migration (such as Brueckner and Kim in this issue) builds upon a partial equilibrium analysis that is based on an urban land model. There are subtle differences between these models that complicate intermodel comparisons. The current paper, motivated by this complexity, has three purposes: (1) a mathematical explication of the state of the art in migration modeling, (2) a provision of further insights into the Todaro paradox, and (3) a suggestion for future research predicated on melding the urban land and interregional literatures.     

Requiem for the Fixed-Transition-Probability Migrant

In a recent paper titled “Requiem for the Net Migrant” Andrei Rogers persuasively argues for the use of a multiregional perspective rather than a uniregional one in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration. In particular, he highlights the deficiencies of using net migration rates in population projections, giving illustrations of the very large differences that can occur if constant net migration rates are assumed versus fixed interregional transition probabilities. Net migration rates are conceptually unsound because their denominators are not true “at-risk” populations. Fixed interregional transition probabilities, however, are inconsistent with a sound behavioral representation of migration system dynamics. Whereas such stationary Markov models posit a role for shifting origin region populations, they do not embed the assumptions intrinsic to gravity or opportunity model concepts about the role of changing destination region populations. This paper explores alternative, more behaviorally pleasing interregional models that posit a role for shifting destination populations in altering the attractiveness of migration alternatives. Density-dampened, destination-population-weighted transition probability structures are explored. The importance of modeling intraregional migration separately from nonmovement is stressed.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF THE RECENT INTERREGIONAL MIGRATION FLOWS IN ITALY: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT This study investigates the determinants of interregional migration flows in Italy in the light of the upsurge occurred in 1996, after two decades of decreasing internal migration rates. The fixed‐effect vector decomposition estimator (FEVD) is applied to a gravity model using bilateral migration flows for the period 1996–2005. It is shown that the FEVD improves the estimates with respect to the traditional panel data estimators. The GDP per capita and the unemployment rate appear to be the key determinants whose changes push migrants out from their regions and direct them to “better off” destinations. Migrants leaving the regions in the Center‐North respond differently to the push and pull forces compared to southern migrants. The dynamic model provides evidence for the presence of social networks, which in this analysis take place for each pair of regions.     

How to improve the quality of life in peripheral and lagging regions by policy measures? Examining the effects of two different policies in Germany

Peripheral regions commonly appear to be less attractive to live in and policymakers all over the world are applying various measures to make them more attractive. This paper analyzes the effects of two very different measures: The German municipal fiscal equalization scheme and the German structural funds for economically weak areas (GRW). It focusses on the impact on perceived quality of life, measured through interregional migration between German labor market regions. Using a spatial vector autoregressive panel model, we find evidence that equalization transfers have a significant positive impact on regional net migration and contribute to the aim of regional equity. These effects are especially found for regions with low endogenous fiscal capacities. GRW funding reveals no significant effects on net migration rates in total, but short-term effects in rural regions.     

The assumption of equilibrium in the analysis of migration and interregional differences: a review of some recent research

"This paper questions the plausibility of the assumption of interregional equilibrium in recent research into migration and the valuation of amenities in the United States. It is shown that it is difficult to develop a satisfactory explanation for continuing net migration which is compatible with the equilibrium assumption, and that recent relevant research generally fails to support the idea that the U.S. economy is in equilibrium. The association of higher rent levels with in-migration is explained as a short-run phenomenon. If the spatial economy is in disequilibrium, then the valuations of amenities assuming equilibrium will be biased, being probably too low in areas of net in-migration and too high in areas of net out-migration."     

Interregional Wage Disparities, Relocation Costs, and Labor Mobility in Canada

This paper evaluates possible reasons why interregional wage differences might persist over long periods of time, such as a century or more. A general equilibrium model of interacting regions is developed which can consider explanations including interregional differences in production costs, changes in relocation (migration) costs, and differences in interregional transfer payments. Implications from the model are tested using panel microdata from the Canadian Labour Market Activity Surveys of 1989 and 1990. Key findings are that younger, better educated, native English-speaking workers, who presumably have better information and lower mobility costs, appear to have the smallest interregional wage differences. Thus, because the extent of spatial wage dispersion varies across workers with different characteristics, changes in the pattern of spatial wage disparities over time may be in part a demographic phenomenon.     

ESTIMATING INTERREGIONAL UTILITY DIFFERENTIALS*

ABSTRACT The major objective of this paper is to estimate regional utility levels based on interregional migration data. We first revealed three stylized facts concerning migration behavior by examining long‐term Japanese data on interregional migration. We then uncovered inconsistency between net migration and utility differential in the presence of distance‐related migration costs. Based on the stylized facts and the inconsistency problem, we formulated an operational model and estimated interregional utility differentials. We showed that the interregional utility differentials converged until the late 1970s. We also showed that the utility estimates are highly correlated with the per capita real income. We also applied the model to interregional migration data in the United States and Canada and confirmed the model's validity.     

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983 1. Migration Probabilities

This is part one of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983: 2. Disequilibrium

This is part two of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

The Geographic Components of Change in a Migration System

A method for deriving a set of geographic components of temporal change in a system of interregional flows is proposed and applied in an analysis of U.S. interstate migration in the early 1980s. Dynamic change in net migration is conceptualized to consist of system-growth, system-mobility, geographic mix, and competitive components. Hypotheses concerning the structural dynamics of migration systems are suggested, as are some implications for migration-modeling techniques.     

An equilibrium model of gross migration

ABSTRACT The paper presents and tests a new model of migration which differs significantly from the conventional disequilibrium approach. We show that variations in rates of gross migration across regions are equilibrium responses to variations in levels of amenities, governmental policies, etc. The model is tested using data on the gross migration of whites, 1975-80, together with amenities such as climate and with economic variables such as government services, taxes and unionization. Empirical results suggest that the equilibrium model is more consistent with actual migration patterns than is the conventional disequilibrium approach. We estimate compensating differentials and migration elasticities for these variables.     

Modeling Geographic Ferrous Scrap Markets: Regional Prices and Interregional Transactions in the United States*

Abstract. The U.S. Regional Ferrous Scrap Model analyzes spatial variations in prices for two grades of ferrous scrap using a logistic model of choice under differentiated products. The model uses a computer‐generated equilibrium framework to solve for prices that support the observed spatial distribution of supply and demand quantities. This paper presents the model's formal structure and its solution algorithm. The model specification is highly disaggregated with 1,212 supply and 240 demand regions. Characteristics of the equilibrium solution are described for prices and interregional flows. Sensitivity of equilibrium values to changes in model parameters is reported.     

Destination Choice of Athenians: An Application of Geographically Weighted Versions of Standard and Zero Inflated Poisson Spatial Interaction Models

The main aim of this article is to combine recent developments in spatial interaction modeling to better model and explain spatial decisions. The empirical study refers to migration decisions made by internal migrants from Athens, Greece. To achieve this, geographically weighted versions of standard and zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) spatial interaction models are defined and fit. In the absence of empirical studies for the effect of potential determinants on internal migration decisions in Greece and the presence of an excessive number of zero migration flows among municipalities in Greece, this article provides empirical evidence for the power of the proposed Geographically Weighted ZIP regression method to better explain destination choices of Athenian internal migrants. We also discuss statistical inference issues in relation to the application of the proposed regression techniques.