Spatial Spillovers and Regional Growth: A Cognitive Approach

Spatial spillover effects are widely studied in the literature, as an important source of externality and therefore of discrepancy between private and social optimum, creating the emergence for ad-hoc policy interventions. Within the literature, their spatially-bounded nature is highly emphasised, but the mechanisms for their spatial diffusion are generally considered as a black box, with no reference to territorialized channels through which these externalities spread around. The study aims to present a literature review on the spatial spillover concept, emphasising two main stages of reflection, the so-called spatial approach and the functional approach. This work identifies in a third approach, the cognitive approach, a new perspective to the interpretation of spatial spillovers and their conditions, and on this approach it elaborates theoretically and empirically. The main assumption is that the capabilities of economic agents to absorb and utilize spillovers—implicitly assumed by the spatial spillover theory to be invariant with respect to space—in reality highly depend on strongly territorialized and un-imitable assets, such as local trust, sense of belonging and creativity. This assumption is tested empirically on all NUTS 2 of the 27 European member countries, thanks to a regional forecasting growth model developed by the author, called MASST.     

Knowledge Spillovers and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence Using a Spatial Panel Data Model

This article investigates the impact of knowledge capital stocks on total factor productivity (TFP) through the lens of the knowledge capital model proposed by Griliches (1979) , augmented with a spatially discounted cross-region knowledge spillover pool variable. The objective is to shift attention from firms and industries to regions and to estimate the impact of cross-region knowledge spillovers on TFP in Europe. The dependent variable is the region-level TFP, measured in terms of the superlative TFP index suggested by Caves, Christensen, and Diewert (1982) . This index describes how efficiently each region transforms physical capital and labor into output. The explanatory variables are internal and out-of-region stocks of knowledge, the latter capturing the contribution of cross-region knowledge spillovers. We construct patent stocks to proxy annual regional knowledge capital stocks for N =203 regions during 1997–2002. In estimating the effects, we implement a spatial panel data model that controls for spatial autocorrelation as well as individual heterogeneity across regions. The findings provide a fairly remarkable confirmation of the role of knowledge capital contributing to productivity differences among regions and add an important spatial dimension to discussions in the literature by showing that productivity effects of knowledge spillovers increase with geographic proximity.     

Bayesian Analysis of Knowledge Spillovers in European Regions*

Abstract. This paper estimates the effects of knowledge spillovers on patent growth rates across 335 European regions over the 1989–1999 period. We propose a dynamic model based on an innovation production function. A Bayesian approach is used to take into account area‐specific innovation and spatial spillovers. The estimation of the model proceeds via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results show significant positive and negative spatial effects on innovative activity. The model allows for a rich spatial specification, which we illustrate by incorporating transport proximity measured by transportation time between regions to augment the typical spatial proximity measure of connectivity between regions. Doing this produces more pronounced spatial spillovers that exhibit a more polarized spatial pattern than a model relying on spatial proximity alone.     

RECESSIONARY SHOCKS AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE ON THE RESILIENCE OF U.K. REGIONS*

ABSTRACT We analyze the resilience of U.K. regions to employment shocks. Two basic notions of resilience are distinguished. With engineering resilience, there is an underlying stable growth path to which a regional economy rebounds following a shock. With ecological resilience, shocks can permanently affect the growth path of the regional economy. Our data set consists of quarterly employment series for 12 U.K. regions (NUTS I) for the period 1971–2010. Using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model specification, we test for the relevance of (engineering) resilience of U.K. regional employment to the four recessionary shocks in our sample. It turns out that U.K. regions do indeed differ in their resilience, but that these differences mainly concern the initial resistance to these shocks and not so much the recovery stage. The SUR model does not allow shocks to have permanent effects and it also does not take the possibility of time differentiated shock spillovers between the 12 regions into account. To this end, we also estimate a vector error‐correction model (VECM) specification where employment shocks can have permanent effects and where also interregional employment linkages are included. We find that employment shocks typically have permanent effects when it concerns the own‐region effects. Permanent effects can also be found for the impact on other regions but the interregional effects are typically only significant for nearby regions.     

Analyzing the Relationship Between Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease at the Small Area Level: A Bayesian Approach to Spatial Modeling

We model the relationship between coronary heart disease and smoking prevalence and deprivation at the small area level using the Poisson log-linear model with and without random effects. Extra-Poisson variability (overdispersion) is handled through the addition of spatially structured and unstructured random effects in a Bayesian framework. In addition, four different measures of smoking prevalence are assessed because the smoking data are obtained from a survey that resulted in quite large differences in the size of the sample across the census tracts. Two of the methods use Bayes adjustments of standardized smoking ratios (local and global adjustments), and one uses a nonparametric spatial averaging technique. A preferred model is identified based on the deviance information criterion. Both smoking and deprivation are found to be statistically significant risk factors, but the effect of the smoking variable is reduced once the confounding effects of deprivation are taken into account. Maps of the spatial variability in relative risk, and the importance of the underlying covariates and random effects terms, are produced. We also identify areas with excess relative risk.     

DISENTANGLING AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES: AGENTS,SOURCES, AND SPATIAL DEPENDENCE*

ABSTRACT This paper expands the literature on agglomeration economies in three ways. It disentangles amenity and productivity effects of agglomeration; it decomposes aggregate scale effects into agglomeration factors of interest to policy makers; and it estimates own effects and spillovers to neighbors. It proposes a spatial simultaneous equations model in a spatial equilibrium framework with three agents—workers, consumers, and producers of traded‐goods and housing. Results for Ohio counties estimate economies resulting from population size, agglomeration causes, and public service quality and cost on each of the three agents in own and neighboring counties.     

Estimating Spatial Models Within A Disequilibrium Framework

Modeling demand in a spatial context requires careful handling of regional interactions. In situations where there are constraints in some markets that lead to spillovers to others it is useful to build this explicitly into the model. In this paper I present a theoretical model that is related to the disequilibrium and the spatial econometric literature. Under certain conditions the model may be estimable and an appropriate estimation technique that uses the EM algorithm, is put forward. A data set from the U.K. market for secondary school places provides a test for the procedure.     

WHERE IS AN OIL SHOCK?

Much of the literature examining the effects of oil shocks asks the question “What is an oil shock?” and has concluded that oil‐price increases are asymmetric in their effects on the U.S. economy. That is, sharp increases in oil prices affect economic activity adversely, but sharp decreases in oil prices have no effect. We reconsider the directional symmetry of oil‐price shocks by addressing the question “Where is an oil shock?” the answer to which reveals a great deal of spatial/directional asymmetry across states. Although most states have typical responses to oil‐price shocks—they are affected by positive shocks only—the rest experience either negative shocks only (five states), both positive and negative shocks (five states), or neither shock (five states).     

Infrastructure and Growth in a Spatial Framework: Evidence from the EU regions

This paper examines the return to infrastructure in the European Union regions in a spatial framework. It innovates on the earlier literature on infrastructure and growth by a combination of regional focus, disaggregation of infrastructure types and consideration of spatial dependence. Different types of infrastructure capital are considered as determinants of economic performance at the Nomenclature des Unités Territoriales Statistiques level. To account for growth spillovers among regions, a spatial Durbin model is estimated. The results confirm the important role of infrastructure and identify the highest rates of return as associated with telecommunication, quality and accessibility of transportation networks, with a positive impact of roads and railways.     

Destination choices of Chinese rural–urban migrant workers: Jobs,amenities, and local spillovers

Using the 2014 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, we analyze rural–urban migrant workers’ destination choices after the global financial crisis, with an emphasis on jobs, amenities, and local spillovers. By using an equilibrium‐sorting model, this paper disentangles local spillovers from local attributes in the estimation process. We employ both an artificial instrumental variable and the provincial highway passenger flow in 1979 to tackle the endogeneity issue. After controlling for the network effects of migrants from the same origin, we find a separate and strong preference for colocating with a large population of migrants, regardless of origin. The results remain robust when we take into account labor supply‐driven migration, spatial autocorrelation between provinces, different industry definitions, and regional differences within provinces. Our results imply that due to institutional barriers, the rural‐migrant community will still be a very important factor in the foreseeable future. In addition, as the ongoing industrial upgrading and transfer policies in China may lead to a westward movement of rural–urban migrants, the movement will be expedited when the older, less educated, or lower income migrants relocate.     

DOES FIRM OWNERSHIP AFFECT SPILLOVER OPPORTUNITIES? EVIDENCE FROM CHINESE MANUFACTURING

The clustering of economic activity is believed to generate both positive own‐industry (localization) spillovers and negative competitive pressures. Using data on manufacturing enterprises operating in China during 1998–2006, this paper provides evidence on the net effect of opposing spillovers from nearby economic activity. Central to the analysis is the opportunity to distinguish local manufacturing enterprises by state, private, or foreign ownership. Systematic differences in average productivity of these firms enable inferences about differences in the strength of spillovers from one type of firm to another type. Results indicate that spillovers are larger within the same ownership type than they are across them, consistent with localization economies that operate within segmented channels of influence.     

USING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF BIDDERS TO DETECT COLLUSION IN THE MARKETPLACE: EVIDENCE FROM TIMBER AUCTIONS*

ABSTRACT.  This study develops identification strategies utilizing spatial bidding patterns to detect possible collusion in auction markets. The identification strategy is applied to examine bidder behavior using data drawn from nearly 3,000 auctions (over 10,000 individual bids) for cutting rights of standing timber in British Columbia for the period 1996–2000. Results suggest that observed patterns of behavior are inconsistent with a model of perfectly competitive bidding. Further, changes in such patterns across geographic space are remarkably consistent with patterns of decay in the transmission of knowledge reported in previous empirical work on spillovers.     

The Geography of Knowledge Spillovers Between High-Technology Firms in Europe: Evidence from a Spatial Interaction Modeling Perspective

The focus in this article is on knowledge spillovers between high-technology firms in Europe, as captured by patent citations. The European coverage is given by patent applications at the European Patent Office that are assigned to high-technology firms located in the EU-25 member states (except Cyprus and Malta), the two accession countries Bulgaria and Romania, and Norway and Switzerland. By following the paper trail left by citations between these high-technology patents we adopt a Poisson spatial interaction modeling perspective to identify and measure spatial separation effects to interregional knowledge spillovers. In doing so we control for technological proximity between the regions, as geographical distance could be just proxying for technological proximity. The study produces prima facie evidence that geography matters. First, geographical distance has a significant impact on knowledge spillovers, and this effect is substantial. Second, national border effects are important and dominate geographical distance effects. Knowledge flows within European countries more easily than across. Not only geography, but also technological proximity matters. Interregional knowledge flows are industry specific and occur most often between regions located close to each other in technological space.     

Spatial and Sectoral Characteristics of Relational Capital in Innovation Activity

The paper presents prima facie evidence of the role of relational capital in innovation activities, and underlines the spatial and sectoral difference of the effects of relational capital on innovation processes. Relational cpaital is defined in this paper as the stock of relations that a firm can entertain with other firms, institutions, research centres, measured through the intensity of cooperation among local actors. The paper is structured in two parts. In the first part, a review on the literature is presented, and the similarities and differences between the concept of relational capital and the more common concept of knowledge spillovers is underlined. In the second part, the empirical results of the analysis are presented; the empirical analysis is based on a database of 133 firms' observations, located in different geographical areas. With a quantitative approach, the paper replies to the following key questions: Is relational capital a determinant for innovation activities? If it is so, does it have the same role in urban and non-urban areas? Does it have a different role in specialized and despecialized areas? The empirical results to these questions help in understanding whether it is true that competitive city regions in the global economy are the major locations for relatively exclusive knowledge and learning resources. The paper shows that if relational capital plays a role in innovation activities, it may very well be that its role strongly depends on the sectoral as well as the spatial characteristics in which the innovation process takes place. Non-urban areas characterized by strong local synergies and highly specialized activities may even be more facilitated in their inovation activity.     

INTERREGIONAL KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS AND OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE IN A MODEL OF FREE TRADE AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH*

ABSTRACT A two region model of horizontal innovation with free trade and occupational choice is used to examine the spatial patterns of innovation and manufacturing industry in interior and core‐periphery long‐run equilibria. The inclusion of skill heterogeneity among workers creates a tension between stabilizing productivity effects that coincide with reallocations of workers across industries, and destabilizing productivity effects that arise with localized stocks of knowledge capital. We find that while core‐periphery equilibria are always saddlepath stable, interior equilibria are saddlepath stable when knowledge spillovers exceed a threshold level but are unstable otherwise. In addition, incorporating skill heterogeneity into the model allows for interior equilibria with asymmetric shares for innovation and industry.     

中国省区间的外资R&D知识溢出及其空间差异研究——基于随机前沿生产模型(SFA)的实证

基于随机前沿生产函数构建的区域知识溢出模型,实证分析了中国省区层面的外资R&D空间溢出效应及其差异。结果显示,我国外资R&D活动不仅对本省存在溢出影响,对邻省亦有重要贡献;东部省区同时受益于其东、中部邻省的外资R&D溢出效应,但中西部省区均只从同一区域且邻近省份的外资R&D活动获益。研究还发现,我国三大区域内部均已结成紧密的省际空间联系,外资R&D双向溢出显著;但东部与中部省区的空间关联度不强,外资R&D呈单向溢出格局;而中部与西部之间目前仍存在明显的空间分割特征,造成彼此之间互无溢出。     

Scale economies and the geographic concentration of industry

In recent empirical literature on spatial agglomeration, manypapers find evidence consistent with location-specific externalitiesof some sort. Our willingness to accept evidence of agglomerationeconomies depends on how well key estimation problems have beenaddressed. Three issues are particularly troublesome for identifyingagglomeration effects: unobserved regional characteristics,simultaneity in regional data, and multiple sources of externalities.Two empirical results appear to be robust to problems createdby the first two issues: (a) individual wages are increasingin the presence of more-educated workers in the local laborforce, which is consistent with localized human-capital externalities,and (b) long-run industry growth is higher in locations witha wider range of industrial activities, which suggests thatfirms benefit from being in more diverse urban environments.Other evidence is supportive of agglomeration effects relatedto regional demand linkages and short-run, industry-specificexternalities.     

FACTOR ACCUMULATION,EXTERNALITIES, AND ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY IN REGIONAL GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM EUROPE

This paper proposes a model that incorporates capital accumulation and spatial spillovers across economies, while allowing for regional differences in absorptive capacity. This model is estimated using a sample of EU regions, over a period including the enlargement of the single‐market area in the middle of the first decade of the 21st century. Results confirm the relevance of local absorptive capacity that is directly linked with the process of making the most of externalities. Capital deepening reduced the role of capital in explaining the regional productivity gap, but was not enough to help lagging regions to equal the return to human capital investments reached by most advanced regions.     

How green is the valley? Foreign direct investment in two Norwegian industrial towns

Since the early 1900s, foreign direct investments (FDIs) have greatly affected Norwegian society, especially peripheral communities. This article analyses how transnational corporations (TNCs) use territory down to the local level, and how this complex relationship between firms and spaces is shaped by attributes related to the TNC and the characteristics of the local economy. An extensive literature discusses different types of effects and spillovers, such as vertical supply linkages and spin-offs, but theoretical explanations of outcomes are more difficult. The literature links positive as well as negative outcomes to local conditions and to the investment motives of the entity making the FDI, but says little about how these vary with types of business, communities and national economies, and how these interactions generate different outcomes. We conclude that FDIs have different abilities to transform an area. We argue that FDI can trigger path-dependent dependency when it is dominated by economic capital and path-dependent development when it consists of a balance of economic capital, social networks and knowledge. This variation in the effects of FDI is illustrated by an empirical analysis of two industrial towns in Western Norway, one with natural resources and the other with intangible technology resources.     

Travel-Time Constraints on Destination-Choice Sets

The importance of travel-time constraints in spatial choice is widely recognized in the literature of geography and related disciplines, but little work has been done toward developing operational models of spatial choice wherein these constraints and their effects are made explicit. The purpose of the paper is to test the accuracy of predictions produced by a destination choice model that does not take explicit account of travel constraints under the assumption that observed choices are made from choice sets delineated by a constraint of maximum travel time. Observed choices are generated by simulation from a new random utility model consistent with the constrained nature of individual choice sets. Results show that the characteristics of constraints are a decisive factor in the accuracy of the unconstrained choice model. Choice probabilities of the constrained reality are predicted with a reasonably good accuracy in some instances, but predictions are less impressive, and even poor, in many others.