Restructuring Intra-urban Space during China's Transition. Jian Feng

An American geographer whose research focuses on Europe reports on changes in geographical patterns and trends in merchandise export trade after the dismantling of political- economic divisions prevailing during the Cold War and their replacement by European political and economic integration as well as globalization. Analysis and comparison of international trade data for the years 1960 and 2010 reveal a dramatic expansion in the role of Germany and China in European merchandise trade, accompanied by a decline in the importance of the United States and United Kingdom. The author also demonstrates how some countries such as the Netherlands have expanded their exports to a broader range of European countries, whereas others appear to be consolidating their roles as leaders of regional trade blocs (e.g., Italy in Southeastern Europe).     

The Global Flea Market: Migration,Remittances and the Informal Economy in Tonga

Some common assumptions about the form and use of migrants' remittances in the South Pacific are examined and questioned in the light of information from a micro-economic study of one group of remittance recipients in the flea market of Nuku'alofa, the capital of the Kingdom of Tonga. The findings of this study suggest that economic analysis and policy recommendations based on the existing macro-economic data on recorded remittances and other economic aggregates should be treated with caution. The unrecorded inflows of remittances in kind and the associated spread of the domestic informal sector have had some important implications for the functioning of Tonga's economy. There is some evidence to suggest that the growth of informal, international trade is fostering other significant changes in the domestic economy. The functioning of remittance-dependent economies such as Tonga is much more complex than existing economic analysis suggests, and involves substantial investment – not just consumption – with the emergence of entrepreneurs and the manipulation of dependence, rather than merely passive receipt of cash and expenditure focused on consumption.     

AGGLOMERATION AND TRADE: STATE‐LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM U.S. INDUSTRIES*

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the connection between economic agglomeration and trade patterns within the United States at the industry level. On the consumption side, industry‐ and state‐specific international imports and elasticities of substitution are shown to be systematically connected to consumption agglomeration effects, while on the production side, industry‐ and state‐specific international exports and intermediate input trade are shown to be systematically connected to production agglomeration and specialization effects. Industry structures play an important role in the determination and magnitude of these effects.     

The Ins and Outs of Iranian Industrial Resilience under Sanctions

This paper draws on export data from four of Iran’s key trade partners—the European Union, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Turkey—to examine the robust and positive correlations between the export of parts and machinery to Iran and Iran’s industrial output, as measured by production index data published by the Central Bank of Iran for industrial enterprises with over 100 employees. The period of analysis is 2000 to 2017. It may seem intuitive that the output of Iranian manufacturers depends on the ability of companies to source intermediate goods such as parts and machinery. However, the imposition of sanctions on Iran is shown to have temporarily decoupled the relationship between European industrial exports to Iran and the Iranian industrial production index—the index remained stable even as European exports fell. An analysis of trade data for the other three trade partners included in this study quantitatively substantiates reports noting that in order to sustain the industrial production index, Iran engaged in processes that can be collectively described as “import reflection.” This entails substituting European intermediate inputs with Chinese inputs while also circumventing sanctions pressures on trade by sourcing European inputs via re‐export from the UAE and Turkey. These processes were fundamental to Iran’s economic resilience in the face of multilateral sanctions and have played a central role in Iran’s defense of its industrialized economy and particularly its non‐oil exports as the administration of US President Donald Trump pursues a new unilateral campaign of “maximum pressure” sanctions.     

DO LOCAL AMENITIES AFFECT THE APPEAL OF REGIONS IN EUROPE FOR MIGRANTS?*

ABSTRACT This paper delves into the factors, which determine the attractiveness of regions in Europe for migrants. Contrary to the literature on the United States, which has increasingly focused on the role of amenities, existing research in Europe tends to highlight the predominance of economic conditions as the main drivers of migration. Differentiating between economic, sociodemographic and amenity‐related territorial features, we examine the appeal of various regional characteristics for migrants by analyzing net migration data for 133 European regions between 1990 and 2006. Our results show that, in addition to economic, human capital‐related and demographic aspects, network effects and—in contrast to existing literature—different types of regional amenities exert an important influence on the relative attractiveness of sub‐national territories across the European Union. Our findings therefore indicate that locational choices in Europe may be much more similar to place‐based preferences in the United States than originally thought.     

The Russian economic puzzle: going forwards,backwards or sideways?

The question addressed in this article is whether the recent strong growth of the Russian economy is sustainable. The main difficulty is assessing the conflicting evidence. Developments since the financial crisis of 1998 are reviewed, including growth performance and macro‐economic management. There is an analysis of the nature and extent of Russian economic dependence on exports of oil and gas and the direction towards state control since 2003 is described. The article reviews the interaction of competitive power politics among the political elite with economic policy and assesses factors favouring and factors working against continued rapid growth over the next five years. One conclusion is that informal rules operating in the economy differ across sectors, and Russian economic development is in part robust; but there are powerful influences working towards a slowdown in growth.     

Kennedy's Alliance for Progress: countering revolution in Latin America. Part I: From the White House to the Charter of Punta del Este

One of the first acts of the new administration of President John F. Kennedy in 1961 was to promote an ‘Alliance for Progress’ throughout Latin America. JFK's stated goal was ‘to transform the American continent’ by improving the often desperate living conditions of its peoples; advancing industrialization; diversifying and increasing exports (especially away from heavy dependence on single items such as coffee); encouraging interstate trade and communications; and—above all—strengthening democracy: a term to inspire but one rarely, if ever, defined. The primary means for achieving these ends would be the extension of loans by the United States and others, thereby building up capital for industrial production while increasing food and raw material supplies to maximize foreign exchange—all with the aim of reversing the ‘dependency’ of ‘underdeveloped’ Latin America upon the more ‘advanced’ economies of the north Atlantic area. Kennedy's expressed fear was that Latin America, its impoverished peoples ripe for revolution, would follow the path of Cuba under the new regime of Fidel Castro. In the first part of a two‐part analysis the historical and political origins of the Alliance are traced to both US and Latin American sources, including schemes within the Organization of American States and ‘Operation Pan America’; in the second part the economic failures and the strategic successes of the Alliance during the presidencies of Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard M. Nixon will be evaluated as another, if varied, stage in the evolving ‘hegemonic presumption’ of the US towards its southern neighbours.     

抗战时期西北皮毛贸易与大后方经济变动

皮毛是西北地区重要的畜牧产品。近代以来,随着天津的开埠通商,在天津口岸的经济辐射作用下,大量西北皮毛通过黄河水运汇集至包头后再通过平绥铁路运至天津出口美英等国,皮毛成为西北最重要的出口物资,大量西北皮毛的出口也成为西北地区皮毛业外向化的重要表现。但抗战爆发以后,西北皮毛贸易发生了巨大变化。首先,西北皮毛出口运输路线改为向西汇集兰州后再通过甘新公路或甘新大道运至猩猩峡出口苏联,使得苏联取代战前美国成为中国最大皮毛进口国,这也直接推动了战时中苏易货贸易的发展。其次,由于战时西北皮毛出口运输较战前出口运输路途艰险,加上战时出口市场萎缩等原因,造成战时西北皮毛出口量较战前减少。战时西北皮毛出口量的减少,迫使部分皮毛出口转内销,西北皮毛业从战前外向化开始转为战时内向化。西北皮毛内销数量的增加,也推动了大后方毛纺织业的发展。因此,战时西北皮毛业的内向化一定程度上为战时大后方经济的发展积累了新的动力因素。     

SOVIET ASIAN-PACIFIC TRADE AND THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

During the 1970s and early 1980s it was generally accepted, by both Soviet and Western specialists, that in the Soviet Far East the expansion of exports to the nations of the Pacific Basin offered a solution to the region's economic problems. However, recent policy statements suggest the rejection of this export-led development strategy. This study examines the changing structure and dynamics of Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region. At present, for a combination of economic and political reasons, Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region is dominated by exports of machinery and equipment and petroleum to the socialist nations of the region, inasmuch as Japanese demand for Soviet natural resources is stagnant. Therefore, because of the resource orientation of the Far Eastern economy, contemporary trade relations do not favor the expansion of the Soviet Far Eastern export base. Consequently, the future role of the region in the national economic system will be determined largely by the availability of domestic capital investment funds.     

Book reviews

Book Reviewed in this articles. International Relations theory Security as practice: discourse analysis and the Bosnian war. By Lene Hansen. Informal coalitions: mastering the hidden dynamics of organizational change. By Chris Rodgers. The anarchical society in a globalized world. Edited by Richard Little and John Williams. Human rights and ethics Guantánamo and the abuse of presidential power. By Joseph Margulies. Complicity with evil: the United Nations in the age of modern genocide. By Adam LeBor. International law and organization Max Planck commentaries on world trade law: world economic order, world trade law. Edited by Peter‐Tobias Stoll and Frank Schorkopf. Max Planck commentaries on world trade law: institutions and dispute settlement. Edited by Rüdiger Wolfrum, Peter‐Tobias Stoll and Karen Kaiser. Key issues in WTO dispute settlement: the first ten years. Edited by Rufus Yerxa and Bruce Wilson. Crimes against humanity. By Geoffrey Robertson. Laws of fear: beyond the precautionary principle. By Cass R. Sunstein. Democracy, minorities and international law. By Steven Wheatley. Foreign policy Seize the hour: when Nixon met Mao. By Margaret MacMillan. Conflict, security and armed forces Nation‐building: beyond Afghanistan and Iraq. Edited by Francis Fukuyama. Kosovo between war and peace: nationalism, peacebuilding and international trusteeship. Edited by Tonny Brems Knudsen and Carsten Bagge Laustsen. Empire in denial: the politics of state‐building. By David Chandler. The age of war: the United States confronts the world. By Gabriel Kolko. Terror on the internet: the new arena, the new challenges. By Gabriel Weimann. Political economy, economics and development The World Economic Forum: a multi‐stakeholder approach to global governance. By Geoffrey Allen Pigman. Mapping the markets: a guide to stockmarket analysis. By Deborah Owen and Robin Griffiths. Ethnicity and cultural politics Islam and global dialogue: religious pluralism and the pursuit of peace. Edited by Roger Boase. Energy and environment Field notes from a catastrophe: climate change: is time running out? By Elizabeth Kolbert. History Stalin's wars: from world war to Cold War, 1939–53. By Geoffrey Roberts. Suez 1956: the inside story of the first oil war. By Barry Turner. Keith Kyle died on 21 February 2007. He will be much missed by all at Chatham House and particularly by the editors of International Affairs, not least for his authoritative articles and reviews, and generous advice. Twelve days: revolution 1956. By Victor Sebestyen Churchill's man of mystery: Desmond Morton and the world of intelligence. By Gill Bennett. The battle for Spain: the Spanish civil war 1936‐1939. By Antony Beevor. Europe The new Atlanticist: Poland's foreign and security policy priorities. By Kerry Longhurst and Marcin Zaborowski. Endgame in the Balkans: regime change European style. By Elizabeth Pond. Europeanization, varieties of capitalism and economic performance in Central and Eastern Europe. By Lucian Cernat. Democracy in the new Europe. By Christopher Lord and Erika Harris. Russia and Eurasia Putin's Russia and the enlarged Europe. By Roy Allison, Margot Light and Stephen White. Dependent on oil and gas: Russia's integration into the world economy. Edited by Shinichiro Tabata. Middle East and North Africa Killing Mr Lebanon: the assassination of Rafik Hariri and its impact on the Middle East. By Nicholas Blanford. Sub‐Saharan Africa The new multilateralism in South African diplomacy. Edited by Donna Lee, Ian Taylor and Paul D. Williams. Peace without power: Ghana's foreign policy 1957‐66. By Kwesi Armah. Asia and Pacific The king never smiles: a biography of Thailand's Bhumibol Adulyadej. By Paul M. Handley. China's trapped transition: the limits of developmental autocracy. By Minxin Pei. China: a guide to economic and political developments. By Ian Jeffries. Regionalism and globalization in East Asia: politics, security and economic development. By Mark Beeson. North America The silence of the rational center: why American foreign policy is failing. By Stefan Halper and Jonathan Clarke. Ethical realism: a vision for America's role in the world. By Anatol Lieven and John Hulsman. Is Iraq another Vietnam? By Robert K. Brigham. Überpower: the imperial temptation of America. By Josef Joffe. Latin America and Caribbean Hugo Chávez: oil, politics and the emerging threat to the US. By Nikolas Kozloff. Empire's workshop: Latin America, the United States, and the rise of the new imperialism. By Greg Grandin.     

The Booming Russo-Japanese Economic Relations

A noted Japanese economist analyzes the history, present status, and future prospects for Russo-Japanese economic relations. The author demonstrates that the boom in trade between the two countries in the 2000s is unprecedented, ending the stagnation in bilateral trade that began in the early 1980s, when the era of large-scale Siberian resource development projects came to an end. He argues that underlying the current boom is an eastward shift in the Russian economy, characterized by its energy and investment policies as well as foreign economic relations. The paper considers in detail two important factors supporting this boom: (1) Japan’s exports of automobiles to Russia; and (2) Russia’s exports of oil and gas to Japan. He concludes with a guardedly optimistic prognosis suggesting growth in the bilateral economic relations on the grounds of the continuing eastward shift of the Russian economy and a marked correspondence between the demand and supply of the two countries. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F140, O520, P280, Q430. 7 figures, 4 tables, 50 references.     

试论建国初期广东侨批业管理政策

建国初期的侨批业是经营寄递海外华侨汇款及书信并收寄侨眷回执的私营行业。建国后随着解放军在华南地区军事上的顺利推进,包括侨批业管理在内的一系列重要政策在广东得以迅速制定和推行。在“便利侨汇”、“外汇归公,利益归私”原则的指导下,各项侨批业管理政策试图努力扭转侨批业长期奉行的经营服务方针,使之服从于国家经济建设大局,但由于管理政策自身作用有限以及社会经济实力恢复尚需时日,从新中国成立到朝鲜战争爆发之前,广东侨批业管理并未达到预期目的。     

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN THE OLD AND NEW EUROPE: THE ROLE OF AGGLOMERATION EXTERNALITIES

As Europe is currently characterized by huge disparities in the economic performance of “old” and “new” states, we investigate whether this is the result of local agglomeration—specialization and diversity—externalities. Our spatial econometric analysis focuses on total factor productivity dynamics over the period 1996–2007 for 13 industries located in 276 European regions. Consistently with the “nursery cities” theory, we find that diversity exerts a positive effect in the knowledge‐intensive services of the “old” Europe urban areas, while specialization is still effective in the “new” Europe low‐tech manufacturing. Human and technological capital has also a positive impact.     

A Flexible Mathematical Programming Model to Estimate Interregional Input–Output Accounts*

Abstract. This study implements and tests a mathematical programming model to estimate interregional, interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions based on an interregional accounting framework and initial information of interregional shipments. A national input–output (IO) table, regional data on gross output, value‐added, exports, imports, and final demand at sector level are used as inputs to generate an interregional IO account that reconciles regional economic statistics and interregional transaction data. The model is tested using data from a multiregional global IO database and shows remarkable capacity to discover true interregional trade patterns from highly distorted initial estimates.     

Macroeconomic Effects of 21st Century Trade and Investment Agreements: The Case of the Trans‐Pacific Partnership

Following United States withdrawal, the Trans‐Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) is likely to be replaced or complemented by a series of bilateral deals between the US and TPP partners. In this case, TPP will shape trade, finance and public policy globally even without formal US participation. Proponents of TPP emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited projections suggest modest GDP gains after 10 years, varying from less than half a percentage point in the USA to 13 per cent in Vietnam. However, these projections assume full employment and constant income distribution in all countries, excluding some of the major risks of trade liberalization. This article provides alternative projections of the TPP's economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which allows for changes in employment and income distribution. Using this model, the authors obtain very different results. They find that the benefits to economic growth are even smaller than those projected with full‐employment models, and are negative for Japan and the USA. More importantly, they find that the TPP will likely lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality.     

A Geographical Product Differentiation Model of Trade Competition in Third Markets

Product differentiation trade models have been developed in order to account for some contemporary patterns of international trade that are inexplicable under the theory of comparative advantage. This paper presents the case for the geographical differentiation of products. A generalized geographical product differentiation model of trade competition in industrial third markets is outlined within a discrete choice framework. The model treats product price and quality, as determined by country of origin, as distinct variables in export competition. An indirect empirical test of the model's validity, using the cases of export competition between the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany and the United States and Japan, indicates that the generalized model is worthwhile in its ability to account for successful trade competition.     

Whose Wealth Is It Anyway? Mozambique's Outstanding Economic Growth with Worsening Rural Poverty

Despite rapid economic growth and massive inflows of aid, rural poverty in Mozambique is worsening. Agricultural production and productivity have not increased in the last decade. Use of chemical fertilizers and other modern technology is at a low level and decreasing. The present development model emphasizes that the role of government and donors is to provide human capital and infrastructure, while the private sector is responsible for economic development and ending poverty. The most recent national surveys confirm what is being seen elsewhere in Africa — that this non‐interventionist strategy does not raise agricultural productivity or reduce poverty. While 80 per cent of Mozambique's population is engaged in agriculture, this sector contributes only 20 per cent of GDP. This suggests that investments in agriculture are likely to generate pro‐poor growth, both to rural and urban dwellers. This policy failure is increasingly recognized, but donors and government have invested too much political capital in the current policy to change easily.     

THE ENDURING PUBLIC STRUGGLE TO CONSTRUCT,CONTROL, AND CHALLENGE HISTORICAL MEMORIES

Sumit Guha's History and Collective Memory in South Asia, 1200–2000 develops important arguments about the public significance of historical knowledge and the essential role of historians in public life. All societies need collective memories to sustain their cultural identities, as Guha shows in this wide‐ranging account of how such memories have been constructed in South Asian societies since the thirteenth century. The knowledge of historical experts is increasingly challenged or derided by contemporary social groups and political activists, who circulate their own historical narratives via new networks of communication. Political uses of historical knowledge are not new, however, as Guha shows in detailed accounts of how Hindu, Muslim, and British imperial regimes all used historical narratives to justify their own power. He also explains how other social groups challenged official historical narratives with their own popular stories about the past. This book contributes to recent work in global intellectual history by comparing similarities in the historical practices of premodern Europe and South Asia, discussing the cross‐cultural exchanges in colonial‐era institutions, and describing postcolonial challenges to European ideas. Guha thus offers an insightful analysis of how social and political forces influence and respond to the cloistered institutions that produce historical knowledge and construct collective memories. He concludes that evidence‐based historical narratives must be continually defended amid current public assaults on historical knowledge in both South Asia and the United States. More generally, Guha's book suggests the need for ongoing analysis of how public events, social conflicts, and new communication systems can reshape or discredit the work of historical experts.     

The economic impact of the Australia–US free trade agreement

The Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) came into effect in 2005. It was the second preferential trade agreement that Australia signed, after its agreement with Singapore, and marked a departure from the primacy of Australia's previous trade policy of unilateral and multilateral trade liberalisation toward preferential liberalisation. This paper assesses the economic effects of AUSFTA by applying the Productivity Commission's gravity model of trade from its Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements review. The evidence reveals AUSFTA resulted in a fall in Australian and US trade with the rest of the world—that the agreement led to trade diversion. Estimates also show that AUSFTA is associated with a reduction in trade between Australia and the United States.     

Export of Services of Servicing Exports?

Information and communications technology has ensured that many producer services, as well as more ‘basic’ services such as transportation or insurance, are now more tradable than ever. All the indications are that this trade will increase. This has raised the international profile of service and altered governments to their potential as sources of export revenue. This is seen as one way of enhancing national (or regional) economic performance. But should this be assumed to be a panacea for improving national economic growth and restructuring? The general pattern and structure of international trade in services is examined to show that, while valuable, the direct contribution of services to national exports is actually growing relatively slowly and the pattern of trade is highly concentrated. It may actually be important to recognize and nurture the indirect contribution of services to overall national export activity. Goods production and distribution is increasingly dependent on service knowledge and skill; its export competitiveness is a function of the expertise and intellectual knowledge (mainly services) incorporated in the products, the ‘value’ of those products to consumers, and the ways in which they reach out to their markets.