新型城镇化下中部流出地村庄的人口转型特征与微观成因——以湖南岳阳市为例

新型城镇化驱动下,乡村人口转型呈现就近非农化不断增强等新特征。本文以岳阳市为例,首先揭示人口转型的总体格局,选定城关型、偏远山区型、传统农业型三个典型村庄,全面透视其外出、常住人口的转型特征,揭示自然本底、地域经济、社会服务的影响。发现：中部地区人口以流向省外为主,但回流增强,主要流向镇街;城关型村庄人口以就近（地）非农化为主;偏远山区村庄异地城镇化为主、就近非农化为辅;传统农业村庄人口外流、就近城镇化与非农化并存;村庄资源禀赋及利用程度、地域经济水平、生活服务配套等对人口外出程度和距离、择居（业）、年龄和家庭结构、村庄兴衰有不同影响,城镇化应因况施策。     

Regional economic resilience: the role of national and regional policies

In recent years, economic resilience has become a popular term in both theory and policy practice. This interest was triggered by the fact that some regional economies were extremely vulnerable, while others have managed to overcome, more or less effectively, the worse consequences of the current economic crisis. Within this context, questions arise regarding the role that policies at both the national and subnational levels can play in shaping regional economic resilience. Although high in the academic and political agenda, understanding the policy and governance aspects of resilience still remains a relatively underdeveloped area. The paper contributes to this debate focusing on an area which has been most severely hit by crises, the Region of West Macedonia, in Greece. The case study builds on the historical trajectory of the region in order to explain how different types of policies have influenced the ability of West Macedonia to respond to economic slumps and crises of the last 30 years. Evidence suggests that national protectionist policies largely explain not only resilience of the region against previous crises, but also its vulnerability towards the still ongoing economic crisis.     

Determinants of regional resilience to economic crisis: a European perspective

The impact of the economic crisis has been highly asymmetric across the European regions. The objective of this paper is to investigate the determinants of resilience to economic crisis across European regions. Regional economic resilience was assessed based on employment changes during 2008–2013, while socioeconomic determinants were analysed pre-crisis (2002–2007). A highly heterogeneous pattern of resilience was observed within countries, while significant differences were also revealed between the continental northern-central regions and the southern periphery. A multilevel logistic regression model indicated the magnitude of country-effects on the performance of regional employment during crisis periods. Both EU-referenced and country-referenced regional resilience identified the positive effect of accessibility and the negative effect of a large manufacturing sector in the ability of regions to withstand recessionary shocks. Education and economic development level positively affected the resilience of both large and small regional European economies. Investing in education enhances the spatial homogeneity across Europe in terms of its ability to react to economic shocks. The results reveal the importance of narrowing disparities among regions and formulating targeted and differentiated regional development policies at country level, taking into consideration the size of the economy of the regions.     

THE IMPACT OF SPECIFIC-SECTOR CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE AND MIGRATION

ABSTRACT.  It is common in empirical regional economics to use total employment as an explanatory variable while investigating issues such as the level and distribution of income and migration. This paper argues that sector-specific changes in employment and labor market performance can have different effects on economic growth, the collection of tax revenue, migration, and the level and distribution of household income. As such, it is important to model sectors separately. We find that expansions in employment opportunities for a high-wage sector such as computer manufacturing or bioengineering, a medium-wage sector manufacturing, and the lower-wage sector of retailing have differing economic consequences for a small city. We use a data intensive computable general equilibrium model to obtain these results.     

1990-2009年中国区域差异与空间格局——以人口重心与经济重心为例

利用至2009年的省级数据,与前人结论进行了对比,纠正了某些认识。①与我国几何中心相比,人口重心和经济重心均表现出不均衡性;②政策因素和由此导致的开放程度、开放时序的差别,是区域差异的最主要原因之一;③经济危机是经济重心产生剧烈跳动的主要原因;④广东省人口的快速增长是人口重心持续的西南向移动的真正原因,而经济重心的东南向移动是珠江三角洲和长江三角洲经济发展共同作用的结果;⑤人口重心和第一产业重心较为吻合,而与经济重心、第二产业重心、第三产业重心较为离散。     

Local employment growth patterns and the Great Recession: The case of Spain

The 2008 financial and economic crisis has led to widespread destruction of employment in Spain. Using municipality data, I examine employment growth differences between urban cores, urban hinterlands, and rural areas during the pre‐crisis period and the recession period. The data show that patterns of growth and decline have been very uneven across different types of areas. While in the boom years, hinterlands and rural areas experienced higher growth, urban core areas have done better during the recession years. I then test three strands of explanations for local growth differences: (i) the role of the local sectoral composition, (ii) the role of human capital, and (iii) the role of access to urban core areas. Estimations for employment growth in the two periods show that the crisis has altered some of the drivers of local employment growth and that human capital has been a key determinant of local resilience during the Great Recession.     

试论区域经济地理学的实践功能

本文列举了区域经济地理学研究中存在的危机表现,认为克服危机的出路在于参与区域发展与开发的实践。在当代的中国,实践领域是非常宽广的,区域经济地理学的科学属性和方法特别适合实践的要求。文章提出了当前应参与的实践课题和实践过程中应注意解决的一些理论认识。     

Youthful Creativity in Regional Australia: Panacea for Unemployment and Out‐Migration?

This paper addresses the theme of youth out‐migration from rural Australia, in the context of recent policy discussions about creativity and its role in regional development. Ethnographic fieldwork in one rural location – the New South Wales Far North Coast – is drawn upon to highlight how creative industries are being cast as a potential way of promoting cultural activities and jobs for young people, and in turn, how they might be imagined as a means to mitigate youth out‐migration. Yet, creative industries have contradictory employment and social outcomes. Creative industries are likely to generate higher rates of youth participation in economic activities than public data reveal. However, strategies for future job growth should also consider the limitations and instabilities of creative industry employment. Second, and more broadly, the paper discusses those socio‐cultural dimensions of nascent creative industries that may have a more substantial impact when conceived as part of strategies to stem youth exodus from rural areas. Creative activities may contribute to rural development in indirect ways, especially if linked to policy goals of increased tolerance of youth activities, better provision of cultural services, and improved well‐being for young people. While formal job‐creation may be limited, creative industries could mitigate some of the impacts of youth migration to cities by enriching regional social life and mediating perceptions of the advantages and drawbacks of rural versus urban life. This kind of policy imagination requires a shift in attitudes towards young people and a more genuine commitment to encourage young people to feel that they belong in non‐metropolitan areas.     

Employment growth and regional development: industrial change and contextual differences between Denmark and Sweden

This paper explores the potential drivers behind uneven regional development in the context of employment growth in Denmark and Sweden. In particular, we are interested in the roles of urbanization, industrial change and the rise of the new economy as manifested in the growth of the two economies in 2002–2007. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to analyse the impact of a number of key industrial sectors on regional employment growth in the two countries. The empirical analysis is based on longitudinal matched employer–employee data retrieved from official registers in each economy from 2002 to 2007, a period of strong national growth following the crisis of early 2000. Our findings indicate that the two economies follow a similar pattern in addressing total employment growth; but looking at changes in employment levels across the national borders of these two relatively similar open economies, we find that, although in general these economies react relatively similarly to changes, embarking on a narrower analysis of the individual sectors reveals marked national differences. This indicates that context matters in the analysis of regional economic dynamics in terms of structure, system and policy.     

The Politics of Crisis: Deconstructing the Dominant Narratives of the Housing Crisis

This paper considers how dominant narratives of the housing crisis, since the 2008 banking crisis in England, have been created and what actions taken in its name. The paper deconstructs the term “crisis”, highlighting that its meaning has evolved from a critical moment to a protracted narrative which must be understood historically. Through discourse analysis into housing and party political policy, media and think tank reports, we argue that the employment of housing crisis by the government and others perceives it as an outcome of housing supply constraints and over-regulation—narratives that have justified subsequent policy actions aimed at propping up the housing and financial systems, opening new avenues for housing commodification, deregulation and financialisation and reproducing crisis anew. However, we note that these narratives can also break down and space can be created for the articulation of new narratives which refocus housing crises as emerging from inequality and class divisions.     

Capital Assistance for Small Firms: Some Implications for Regional Economic Welfare

This paper analyzes the role of finance capital in regional economic development. A cost‐benefit approach is invoked in order to estimate the welfare impacts of a regional loan and guarantee program for small firms in Israel. Program‐created employment is treated as a benefit and an employment account that separates net from gross employment, is presented. An estimate of net wage benefits is then derived. This involves adjusting wages across different earnings classes in order to account for the variation in opportunity costs of labor at different levels. The estimation of costs includes the opportunity costs of capital, administration, default, and tax‐raising costs. Results point to substantial regional welfare effects. We stress the need to account for changing regional economic structure in this kind of evaluation framework.     

MIGRATION AND SELF‐SELECTION: MEASURED EARNINGS AND LATENT CHARACTERISTICS*

ABSTRACT Research in regional and labor economics has established that economic incentives play a significant role in the process of internal migration. The most common approach is to view migration as a form of human capital investment undertaken by individuals who expect to benefit from the standpoint of increased earnings. One of the central concepts in these models is self‐selection. Individuals who self‐select the option of migration tend to differ from the nonmigrant population in ways that are not measured in most data sets. The contribution of this paper is in its distinction between two aspects of migrant selection. On one hand, some workers possess unmeasured traits that might simultaneously affect their wages and their propensity to engage in risky human capital investment such as migration. On the other hand, measured earnings might exert a direct effect on migration. Based on samples of employed Swedish males and females at two points in time, this study seeks first to examine whether migration between the two periods occurs in the presence of correlation between unmeasured factors present in both earnings during the first period and the subsequent decision to migrate. Second, it looks for an explicit role of earnings per se in the migration decision. Results of the study provide support for selection based on unmeasured traits for both genders. For females, there is also evidence of selection based on measured earnings.     

中部农区农户打工距离研究——以河南三个样本村为例

对农户打工距离和区位的研究是认识农民工流动空间规律的基础。通过对河南省三个不同类型样本村的实证研究,发现打工距离整体分散、局部集中,打工人数随距离的变化呈"U"型分布,打工者在打工目的地的分布上具有群聚特征。影响农户打工距离选择的主要因素是年龄、家庭类型、家庭代数、上学人数和关系网络因子。年龄较大者、家庭类型较简单者、家庭代数较多者、上学人数较多者和关系网络较少者,选择在本地打工的概率较大,反之亦然。     

Exports' Contribution to Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for California,Massachusetts, and Texas,Using Employment Data

The paper shows an interregional trade model from which testable parameter restrictions for economic base theory, shown to be equivalent to the hypotheses of the Granger causality test, are derived. The results of the tests for three states, based on various bifurcation methods, suggest that economic base theory holds strongly for the crudest definition of the base, but not for others. The frequency analysis indicates a likely association between inherent cyclicalities in employment growth data and economic base theory. The regional multipliers and the timing of economic adjustments to exogenous shocks are also discussed.     

Parental migration and the educational enrolment of left-behind children: evidence from rural Ponorogo,Indonesia

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the effects of parental migration on children’s educational enrolment following the recent reforms in Indonesian educational policy. We find that, in general, parental migration has a positive impact on school enrolment, although this varies by the child’s age and the gender of the migrant parent. Parental migration has an adverse impact on the school enrolment of younger children who are eligible for free education, but a positive impact on older children who are no longer able to access state educational support. The gender of the migrant parent matters, as paternal migration appears to have a more positive impact on children’s educational enrolment than maternal migration. Maternal migration is associated with a reduction of younger children’s likelihood of a being in school, while paternal migration makes no difference to their school enrolment. For older children, maternal migration has a lower positive impact compared to paternal migration. Our qualitative interviews also show mixed findings: some children appreciate their migrant mothers’ migration efforts and are motivated to persevere in continuing education, while others are weighed down by their migrant mothers’ sacrifice and develop a sense of obligation to reduce their financial burdens by leaving education early to enter paid employment.     

Regional Responses to the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis: A Case of Self-Help or No Help?

The currency-cum-financial crises of the 1990s, particularly that which hit Southeast Asia after the devaluation of the Thai baht on 2 July 1997, are suggestive of the relevance and pervasiveness of contagion or negative spillover effects that are largely regional in scope. As such, one of the mantras since the onset of the Southeast Asian financial crisis has been the need for 'regional solutions to regional problems'. Given that the two focal institutions in Southeast Asia, namely the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), were perceived as being successful in their past attempts in problem-solving, there were high expectations that such regionalism would be the key in finding solutions to the Southeast Asian financial crisis and mitigating the aftershocks. Accordingly, this paper evaluates the regional responses to the crisis, taking stock of both preventive and curative initiatives of significance. While the focus is on ASEAN and APEC, consistent with the concept of 'loose' or 'non-institutionalised' regionalism in Southeast Asia and the larger Asia-Pacific regions, other ad hoc unilateral or bilateral initiatives of significance by other Asian member countries in APEC are also examined, particularly those by the region's dominant economic power, Japan. Current regional responses have not been very successful. This has led to a shift in the emphasis to unilateral and bilateral arrangements. Japan's contribution has been by far the largest relative to others. The crisis and the responses to it have revealed that unless there is greater institutionalisation, ASEAN countries would continue to look outside the region for assistance to facilitate their recovery.     

网络舆情危机下旅游形象感知的变化及对出游意向的影响——以青岛“天价虾事件”为例

随着中国旅游经济的快速发展，提升和维护旅游形象成为旅游目的地的关键任务之一。然而，在互联网时代，网络舆情事件正在对旅游目的地形象带来新的威胁，值得引起学界关注。文章以青岛“天价虾事件”为例，采用结构方程模型，基于潜在游客视角尝试回答：网络舆情危机下，潜在游客对旅游目的地形象感知是否发生变化，形象感知的变化能否引起其出游意向的变化?结果表明：①网络舆情危机下，潜在游客的认知形象变差会直接导致情感形象和整体形象变差；同时，情感形象变差也会对直接引起整体形象变差。②网络舆情危机下，受认知形象变化和情感形象变化的影响，潜在游客的出游意向受到明显抑制；其中，情感形象起直接作用，认知形象起间接作用。     

RURAL–URBAN MIGRATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT: THEORY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS*

ABSTRACT We develop a regional model where, in the city, unemployment prevails because of too high (efficiency) wages, while, in the rural area, workers are paid at their marginal productivity. We characterize the steady‐state equilibrium and show that it is unique. We then consider two policies: decreasing urban unemployment benefits and subsidizing urban employment. We find that decreasing the unemployment benefit in the city creates urban jobs and reduces rural–urban migration since new migrants have to spend some time unemployed before they can find a job in the city. On the other hand, raising employment subsidies increases urban employment but may also increase urban unemployment because it triggers more rural–urban migration. In this respect, the employment subsidy policy can backfire by raising rather than reducing urban unemployment.     

我国大学生就业城市选择意愿及其影响因素分析

引导大学生合理的就业流动是促进各类城市协调发展的有效途径。本文以不同类型的就业城市为研究对象,通过全国7个城市的1600余份调查问卷,利用多项Logit模型分析了我国大学生就业城市的选择意愿及影响因素。研究表明,大学生倾向以自身生源地为界限对劳动市场的地域进行二元划分,职业发展机遇和家庭因素在就业地的选择中最为重要,地区特质和自然生态环境的影响最弱,生源地和个人观念都与就业地的选择显著相关。在此基础上提出引导大学生就业流动的政策建议。