Reconstruction of regional and national population using intermittent census-type data: The case of Portugal, 1527–1864

Abstract

We offer a new methodology for the construction of annual population stocks over the very long run. Our method does not require the assumption of a closed economy, and can be used in situations in which local annual gross flows are obtainable. Combining gross flows with intermittent census-type data, it is possible to arrive at local, regional and national population stock estimates at annual frequencies. We provide an application to early modern and nineteenth century Portugal, using a large sample of parish-level statistics up to the first modern census of 1864. All six major regions of the country are considered.     

EUROPEAN UNION REGIONAL PRODUCTIVITY DYNAMICS: A “DISTRIBUTIONAL” APPROACH*

ABSTRACT Working within the “distributional approach,” this research offers evidence of past and future polarization in aggregate regional labor productivity in EU‐15. This finding is robust to alternative definitions of the spatial units used and does not appear to be the result of regional structural change. Spatial effects are found but are of rather localized nature. Turning to separate sectoral analyses suggests that past and future polarization in labor productivity across European regions may be associated with regional productivity differences in the services sectors.     

The spatial dimension of internal labor markets

We integrate into a unified framework the spatial and the employment dimensions of worker mobility, tracing workers across firms, across establishments, and across regions. Drawing upon the spatial dimension of internal labor markets in firms with multiple establishments in multiple locations, our results indicate that the contemporaneous wage premium to migration is around 3 percentage points. For the case of job switchers, we find that the return to regional migration is due to access to better jobs at the destination. We also document the existence of an urban premium for same‐employer migrants but for employer changes this premium is driven by selection.     

A NEOCLASSICAL MODEL OF REGIONAL GROWTH IN INDONESIA

In this paper a neoclassical model of regional growth is specified, estimated, and applied to the provinces of Indonesia. While parametric estimates indicate that factors of production respond as expected to neoclassical incentives, the attractiveness of growing regions for capital and labor inputs leads to instability and divergence among regions when the model is solved dynamically. A simulation of government intervention via a policy of encouraging capital growth in lagging regions demonstrates the potential of reversing such effects and encouraging regional convergence.     

THE IMPACT OF SKILL‐SPECIFIC MIGRATION ON REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DISPARITIES IN GERMANY

Differences in regional unemployment are still pronounced in Germany, especially between eastern and western Germany. Although the skill level seems important for the relationship between regional disparities and labor migration, corresponding empirical evidence is scarce. Applying dynamic panel models, we investigate the impact of labor mobility differentiated by educational attainment of the workers on regional unemployment disparities between 2000 and 2008. The impact of low‐ and medium‐skilled migration is consistent with traditional neoclassical reasoning, suggesting that labor mobility reduces differences in regional unemployment rates. In contrast, the migration of high‐skilled workers tends to reinforce disparities.     

Prospects of Population Migration in the USSR

The author offers a methodology for estimating inter-regional population flows in the USSR for the next quarter of a century. The method is based on expected regional manpower needs related to a model of the future distribution of production. Corrections are made for expected regional differences in the need for live labor [depending on the level of mechanization], in rates of natural increase and in the degree of mobility of the population of certain regions.     

国内区域贸易、国际贸易与国家竞争力

大国国内区域贸易与国际贸易关系主要表现在两个方面:一是国内区域贸易与国际贸易存在一定程度上的相互替代的关系;二是国内区域贸易与国际贸易存在相互促进的关系,发展国内区域贸易能提升大国在国际经济中的竞争力。     

Inter- and intraregional inequality in a spatial economy

In this paper, we develop a three-region economic geography model with workers of heterogeneous skills and mobility rates to consider how first-nature, regional differences impact both inter- and intraregional inequality. In our model, the skill premium within a region summarizes both the degree of intraregional inequality between mobile, skilled workers and immobile, unskilled workers and the interregional inequality through differences in the welfare of unskilled workers across regions. Regions with the highest skill premium have the greatest degree of intraregional inequality and provide the lowest level of welfare to unskilled workers, relative to other regions. We find that the skill premium will be higher in regions with a greater supply of unskilled labor, lower supply of housing, or are more remote. An increase in a region's housing supply or centrality will lower intraregional inequality and raise the welfare of the local, unskilled workforce. However, the magnitude of these changes are declining in the initial number of skilled workers in the region. The model is extended to consider imperfectly elastic housing supply. The larger the price elasticity of housing, the larger the range of values, such that more populated regions will host a disproportionate share of skilled workers, have lower levels of intraregional inequality, and provide higher levels of welfare for unskilled workers.     

COVID-19 and employment relief programs: A tale of spatially blind policies for a spatially driven pandemic

We use the case of Chile to analyze the effectiveness of a spatially blind employment relief program (hereafter referred to as the LPE program) established by the Chilean government and implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. Chile is an interesting case because on the one hand its nonpharmaceutical interventions were spatially driven by health indicators based on small geographical areas; hence, producing sizeable regional and temporal variation of the local conditions induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the LPE program was designed and implemented nationally without distinction of local labor market or pandemic conditions, and each firm could decide whether to enroll in the program. By exploiting the spatial-temporal variation of exogenously imposed lockdowns and using a difference-in-differences panel data framework, we find that the LPE program was only effective for a group of regions in the country but, more importantly, that the LPE program was less effective during lockdowns. Moreover, the requirements of the LPE program were vague and did not target specific populations or entities. Consequently, our results suggest that women, informal and small firm workers, and most economic sectors throughout the country were less able to take advantage of the benefits of this program.     

On the role of amenities in models of migration and regional development

"The role of location-specific amenities in human migration decisions, and subsequently regional development, is explored. A framework is developed which motivates a new assessment of existing alternative models of regional development, indicating the need for additional modeling efforts which focus upon amenities as critical elements in such analyses. The approach hinges upon the notion that amenity values are capitalized into wages, rents, or other local prices. This process of capitalization enables researchers to explore the implicit value that society places upon amenities, which can then be used in assessing future regional-development trends in a more comprehensive manner."     

Firms, regions and competitiveness: a broad-brush approach

The objective of this paper is to give an account of the first step of a research programme which has recently been completed. The first step can be labeled a broad-brush approach in order to separate it from later steps. It is intended to give an explorative indication of the extent to which sectors within manufacturing industry are dependent upon regional resources for productivity and innovation to reach a level of international competitiveness, as well as identifying which resources are of importance. The aim has been to identify the conditions for the vast majority of sectors and regions, and thereafter in later steps via the residuals, to point to relations and phenomena which are not sufficiently accounted for. These deviations from the norm, have been examined using a different approach from that employed here. Part of the second step is presented very briefly at the end of the paper.     

SKILLS,EDUCATION, AND CANADIAN PROVINCIAL DISPARITY*

ABSTRACT We derive synthetic time series over the 1951–2001 period of the skills of labor market entrants for the 10 Canadian provinces from the 2003 ALL survey. The effect of the skills variable on regional income is significant and substantial. Skills acquired by one extra year of schooling result in an increase in per capita income of around 5 percent, which is close to microeconomic Mincerian estimates. Our literacy indicator does not outperform human capital indicators based on education. This contrasts sharply with recent cross‐country evidence and suggests substantial measurement error in cross‐country schooling data.     

How to improve the quality of life in peripheral and lagging regions by policy measures? Examining the effects of two different policies in Germany

Peripheral regions commonly appear to be less attractive to live in and policymakers all over the world are applying various measures to make them more attractive. This paper analyzes the effects of two very different measures: The German municipal fiscal equalization scheme and the German structural funds for economically weak areas (GRW). It focusses on the impact on perceived quality of life, measured through interregional migration between German labor market regions. Using a spatial vector autoregressive panel model, we find evidence that equalization transfers have a significant positive impact on regional net migration and contribute to the aim of regional equity. These effects are especially found for regions with low endogenous fiscal capacities. GRW funding reveals no significant effects on net migration rates in total, but short-term effects in rural regions.     

Unity and Diversity in High-tech Growth and Renewal: Learning from Boston and Silicon Valley

A new model of knowledge-based regional economic development was invented in Boston during the 1930s and subsequently transferred to northern California where it also had independent roots. Drawing upon academic, business and government resources and configuring them in new formats created new firms and new industries. Nevertheless, the two regions often appear dissimilar when they are contrasted synchronically, due to the different stages they may be in at the time. Thus, some observers argue that Boston and Silicon Valley are distinctive watersheds, irrelevant to follow-on regions. However, if the development process of these two prototypical high-tech regions are analysed diachronically, a trajectory with similar phases of development may be identified. We suggest that these two regions exemplify a general model for high-tech regional growth and renewal.     

Supporting ‘Film Cultural Peripheries’? The dilemmas of regional film policy in Norway

Public funding is crucial for the small Norwegian film industry. Based on an analysis of policy documents and interviews with regional film workers, this article discusses the implementation of regional film policy in Norway, and the tensions it has caused between center and periphery with respect to the allocation of funding. The creative industries discourse and the cluster concept are important for understanding this implementation; despite the new regional film policies the capital Oslo remains the undisputed hub of film production, and low production volume is still a challenge for the regions. Size, the article explains, is not only central when discussing Oslo as compared to the regions, but has also become a contentious issue within the regions. A key concern for the government, the article suggests, is how to create strong film milieus all over the country, which may entail the risk of spreading funding too thinly across the regions, resulting in a fragmented industry.     

How to Attract Managers and Professionals to Peripheral Regions? Recruitment Strategies in the Weser-Ems Region,Germany

An adequate supply of highly qualified workers is a central prerequisite for the ability of peripheral and economically lagging regions to develop. In order to take advantage of endogenous potential, bottlenecks in human knowledge and know-how must be overcome by means of support from outside. An important element in this is migration. Taking as an example the Weser-Ems region in northwestern Germany, the strategies used by local enterprises to motivate managerial staff to move from other regions are shown and the level of success achieved is described. As is shown, the regional labour market has lost significance for the upper segment in the course of structural changes in the economy, which has led to an increase in the necessity for cross-regional searches in order to fill managerial posts. As enterprises in peripheral locations have poor starting conditions in the cross-regional competition for highly qualified workers, this development demands that more and more enterprises mobilize considerable resources for the recruitment of staff. Although the findings indicate that the potential of workers willing to migrate is greater and more diverse than is often assumed, they also show that certain types of enterprises have great difficulty in overcoming independently the personnel-related disadvantages resulting from the location, and require support through regional structural policy.     

Governance, institutional capacity and partnerships in local economic development: theoretical issues and empirical evidence from the Humber Sub-region

Recent research on local and regional economic development has focused upon transformations in local governance and institutional capacity. It has been argued that local authorities have ceded power to other actors and institutions involved in economic development and regeneration, and that the success of local and regional economic development is closely related to the strength of 'institutional capacity' within an area. In this paper, we examine these claims with reference to the operation of EU Structural Funds in the Humber Sub-region of the UK. Previous research on local governance and institutional capacity has had a limited empirical focus, drawing conclusions from studies of either economically 'successful' regions or regions undergoing regulatory and institutional transformation and precluding analysis of the nature and conditions of local governance and institutional capacity in less developed regions. Our case study evidence not only suggests that arguments about the declining influence of the local state are overdrawn, but also indicates a need for more nuanced accounts of the role of institutional capacity in regional development.     

实施区域倾斜政策逐步缩小我国地区经济发展差距

本文根据区域政策在地区经济发展和地区差距变动中的作用,提出应当对我国中西部地区实施区域倾斜政策,以实现控制地区相对差距不再扩大的第一步目标和地区绝对差距逐渐缩小的第二步目标。指出这一区域倾斜政策应当是一个兼顾效率与公平的区域政策,是一个向重点地区和重点领域倾斜的区域政策,是一个包括经济优惠、社会公平和生态补偿等方面手段的区域政策。     

NRM Regions in Australia: the ‘Haves’ and the ‘Have Nots’

This paper identifies external factors affecting the capacity of Australia's now‐formalised 56 regional natural resource management (NRM) bodies and their community‐based Boards to meet planning and management responsibilities. It demonstrates that little is known about the basic capacity‐related characteristics of NRM regions, despite the lengthy and elaborate process of regionalism that Australia has embarked upon, with its associated and substantial devolution of responsibilities and resources. A suite of indicators is used to develop an ‘exploratory’ capacity typology of NRM regions. The ten regional ‘types’ identified are found to attract varying budget allocations under the Natural Heritage Trust Extension and National Action Plan for Salinity and Water Quality. There are indications that State and regional interests within and outside NRM can significantly influence the distribution of resources. An examination of resources allocated to capacity‐building activities shows significant differences between regions in the scale of resources allocated (0–96% of total budget). The paper argues the case for intervention to reduce the gap between ‘have’ and ‘have not’ regions, and for further exploration of disparities in the allocation of resources to capacity‐building activities. Clarification is needed of the extent to which capacity‐building activities adequately target regional NRM bodies and their Boards.     

SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY AND THE WAGE CURVE REVISITED*

ABSTRACT Most “wage curve” studies ignore the geography of local labor markets. However, when a local labor market is in close proximity of other labor markets, a local shock that increases unemployment may not lead to lower pay rates if employers fear outward migration of their workers. Hence, the unemployment elasticity of pay will be greater, the more isolated the local labor market is. Wages are also expected to be higher in regions that interact strongly with other regions. These hypotheses are confirmed by means of an estimation of wage curves with data for 327 regions of western Germany over the period 1990–1997.