人工神经网络：一种新的旅游市场需求预测系统

本探究了人工神经网络(ANN)作为一种新型的预测系统在旅游市场需求研究中的重要性,并指出：在对旅游需求进行预测时,人工神经网络较之多元回归分析方法适用范围更广,显性更强。     

Trends and triggers: Climate,climate change and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

The conventional discourse relating climate change to conflict focuses on long term trends in temperature and precipitation that define ecosystems and their subsequent impact on access to renewable resources. Because these changes occur over long time periods they may not capture the proximate factors that trigger conflict. We estimate the impact of both long term trends in climate and short term climatic triggers on civil conflict onset in Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that both operationalizations have a significant impact. Climates more suitable for Eurasian agriculture are associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict, while freshwater resources per capita are positively associated with the likelihood of conflict. Moreover, positive changes in rainfall are associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict in the following year. We also assess the outlook for the future by analyzing simulated changes in precipitation means and variability over the period 2000–2099. We find few statistically significant, positive trends in our measure of interannual variability, suggesting that it is unlikely to be affected dramatically by expected changes in climate.     

Population Trends in a Contested Pseudo-State: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

A U.S. population geographer specializing in the former Soviet Union surveys the results of an October 2005 census conducted in a contested pseudo-state known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). Data from the enumeration provide the first credible information about recent population characteristics, including nationality composition and migration from the war-torn republic. The data make it possible to ascertain the crude magnitudes of population losses in the republic's constituent rayons as well as changes resulting from deaths and expulsion of ethnic Armenians and/or Azerbaijanis. Changes documented since the last (1989) Soviet census in the region indicate that the current republic's population differs quite dramatically from that of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of Azerbaijan, complicating efforts to broker a lasting peace agreement between the pseudostate's two neighbors. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23, 1 figure, 1 table, 36 references.     

华人网络与基督教网络的相互嵌入——近代新加坡华人基督教跨国网络探析

论文分析探讨了近代新加坡华人基督教跨国网络的发展历程和近代华人基督教的跨国网络结构。认为近代新加坡华人基督教跨国网络大致可以分成三个发展阶段,它是在"基督教网络"与"华人网络"相互嵌入的过程中形成的,这个过程不是单方主导的结果,而是双向互为的。在这个中西交汇的网络结构中,"基督教网络"和"华人网络"分别成为对方可资利用的资源。一方面,基督教通过"华人网络"中的地缘、血缘等关系网络,扩大自己的影响和传播范围;另一方面,华人也利用"基督教网络"拓展了自己的生存空间。     

旅游小企业与就业研究——桂林阳朔西街案例

文章选取中国旅游小企业发展的典型地区桂林阳朔西街为案例地,对旅游小企业与当地居民就业的关系进行探讨。在对案例地进行大量调查的基础上,文章分别从旅游小企业与直接就业、旅游小企业与就业困难人群就业、旅游小企业与从业人员培训这三个方面来进行研究,最终得出的结论为：旅游小企业在促进旅游目的地居民就业方面起着重要的作用,而且与大型旅游企业相比,旅游小企业在帮助当地居民、女性、就业困难人群就业以及对目的地居民的培训方面的作用更为突出。     

Orality in Persian Argumentative Discourse: A Case Study of Editorials

Languages have their own distinctive styles of argumentation. It seems some languages like Arabic and Persian have a preference for using the “oral” features of parataxis, formulaicity and repetition as persuasive devices in argumentation. The purpose of this article is first to examine these “oral” characteristics in Persian argumentation, and then to tie together the two areas of research: the study of orality and the study of metadiscourse. The article claims that these oral characteristics in Persian are means of gaining rhetorical effectiveness. Therefore, they should be considered as metadiscourse devices used to create a bond between writer and reader.     

旅游地域结构的量化研究--以湖南省为例

运用景观生态学的空间格局指数定量分析旅游资源空间分布格局,采用门限自回归模型模拟旅游客源市场的时间变化特征,运用模糊聚类分析方法对入境旅游客源市场进行分类,并以湖南为例作实证研究。     

Privatization and Democratization in Lithuania: A Case Study of Who Benefits in Siauliai

While Lithuania had undertaken substantial political and economic reform prior to independence, the greatly accelerated pace of privatization following the restoration of same resulted in the emergence of a business class at the local level controlling most of the economic wealth. Concurrent with the process, the state became increasingly less able to either subsidize local governments or assist those hurt most by the reforms. A case study ofSiauliai, Lithuania demonstrates that while the new local business class is overrepresented in the city's government other social elements are not without political voice. Indeed, there appears to be substantial evidence of an "urban regime" linking political office seekers and business interests in an interdependent relationship permitting the former a significant degree of latitude in responding to the demands of pensioners and other citizen groups who make up the majority of their political base.     

文化权理论在少数民族社区旅游发展中的应用研究—以四川省理县桃坪羌寨为例

文化权的主体是拥有、认同该文化的少数民族全体,主要包括文化自决权、文化发展权和文化使用权。企业资本介入到少数民族社区旅游开发后,少数民族的文化权被忽视、盗用和滥用的现象屡屡发生。本文拟从文化权理论的视角,通过具体案例分析少数民族社区旅游发展过程中出现的矛盾和冲突,探讨在企业资本介入后如何让少数民族自身在社区旅游发展中成为真正的受益者,从而让少数民族自身产生主动保护和传承民族文化的内在激励,实现少数民族传统文化资源的可持续利用。     

Global Value Chains and Open Networks: The Case of Italian Industrial Districts

Italian district small and medium enterprises (SMEs) developed aggressive strategies to extend their sales networks and supply chains abroad. Literature on districts offered alternative explanations about the impacts of internationalization on local manufacturing systems. The authors consider the evolution of Italian districts in the framework of global value chain approach, focusing on the role of leading firms. Based on a survey of 650 Italian SMEs and financial indicators, the paper describes the rise of a new district firm model, the open network, which becomes a key node of global value chains. The paper also analyses the relationships among internationalization, innovation strategies and performance of SMEs.     

Processing Complexity in Networks: A Study of Informal Collaboration and its Effect on Organizational Success

Do organizations with more collaborative partners perform better than organizations with fewer partners? And is this relationship conditional on the ability of those partners to provide nonredundant resources from their network of contact with other actors? This article answers these questions with data describing the participation of governmental and nongovernmental organizations in the Cooperative Funding Initiative (CFI), a program sponsored by the one of the five water management districts in Florida. Results show a positive relationship between the inclusion of more partners in a project and the chances of getting funded, but also that once the project becomes too inclusive; those chances decrease if the partners fill more structural holes (e.g., provide more nonredundant resources). In other words, organizations perform better by adding more partners as long as this addition does not result in excessive complexity. These results are valuable for the growing community of policy scholars seeking to understand the specific conditions under which collaborative behavior positively affects organizational performance.     

Urban and Rural Definitions in Regional Context: A Case Study on Turkey

Transformations in the urban and rural areas under the effects of global economic, social and political circumstances have rendered their boundaries more blurring. It has become increasingly difficult to make a clear distinction between urban and rural. This paper intends to bring definitions of urban–rural into discussion in the context of Turkey. It reveals the results of a research project (conducted by Hürriyet G. Ö?dül with Serkan Öngel and Habip Uluçay from Mimar Sinan Fine Arts University, Istanbul, Turkey, in 2007 and financed by the Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey and Mimar Sinan Fine Arts University Research Fund), aiming at revealing the degrees of the urbanity and rurality throughout the country, with an emphasis on the diversification of regions in the urban–rural context. The study is conducted at the NUTS 4 level. Districts are classified as “dominantly rural, dominantly urban and transitional” through the factor analysis based on six structures: agricultural production, non-agricultural production, employment, demography, education and flows of money, goods and people. The urban–rural profile of the country is found as rural and transitional. It is possible to observe some areas displaying deep rural characters in well-developed western regions and some “prosperity spots” dispersed throughout the less-developed eastern regions. Then, regional classifications ranging from “concentrated urban regions” to “rural regions” are made at the NUTS 1 level. Finally, the results are evaluated in perspectives of spatial planning of Turkey and entering process to the EU.