Natural encounters: climate,weather and the Italian Renaissance

This paper examines a key issue in the history of the climate in the pre-instrumental period, that is, how to use narrative sources which make frequent references to weather events, but which need contextualised interpretation. The paper follows an argument that climatological techniques for deriving temperature indices from chronicles, though they have become increasingly elaborate and refined, nevertheless leave out much that is of interest to the social historian. This paper explores the area of the what-is-left-behind when chronicle narratives are reduced to numerical indices. Investigating a broad range of Latin and Italian chronicles from fourteenth and fifteenth-century Italy, the paper draws three main conclusions: that sensitivity to weather events not only varied greatly among writers (as one might expect) but so too did their use of severe weather to serve the purposes of narrative (through sequencing, metaphor and analogy); that sensitivity to meteorological anomaly changed during the period, especially in the fifteenth century with the spread of prognosticating verses; and that the broadening of chroniclers' interests in weather, both ordinary and extraordinary, and in its effects on everyday, material life may allow a connection to and re-evaluation of the Burckhartian idea of the Renaissance ‘discovery of the world’.     

An exploration of regional climate change scenarios for Scotland

Based on a high resolution regional climate model (RCM) experiment, a climate change scenario for Scotland for the end of this century is constructed with the aim of exploring the added value of utilising a regional rather than a global model (GCM) for climate change scenario construction. Spatial variations in regional seasonal average temperature and precipitation change are analysed and the local response of ‘extreme’ weather events to climate warming is assessed using daily model output. The analyses suggest that in comparison with the GCM, the RCM does not provide fundamentally different patterns of seasonal climate change and daily weather response over Scotland, although it does capture more subtle spatial variations in these changes. The RCM also simulates more realistic daily weather events than the GCM, although the relative changes in the frequencies of daily extremes are not greatly different. However, with the limited length of the single model simulation analysed here, it is not easy to establish how robust and significant are the sub‐national patterns of climate response across Scotland. To improve the quality and comprehensiveness of regional climate change scenario information, a number of research issues remain to be addressed.     

旅游气候研究进展与启示

气候是旅游发展的重要因子。近年来,局部地区恶劣气候频繁出现,旅游业发展受到影响。总结国内外旅游气候研究进展,国外研究主要集中于旅游目的地气候条件对旅游业发展、旅游者行为的影响和人类旅游活动对气候的现实和潜在的影响;国内研究则集中在气候旅游资源和旅游地气候舒适度两方面。总的看来,国内外旅游气候研究的中心议题都围绕着气候是旅游业的影响要素,主要贡献有气候是包括自然旅游资源在内的资源形成背景;特殊的气象景观和优良的气候条件是旅游地重要吸引物,进而影响到旅游者决策行为,因此气候调查和分析应视为旅游规划的前提。     

Weather sensitivity and climate change perceptions of tourists: a segmentation analysis

ABSTRACT

Many communities rely on tourism spending, so it is important to understand any potential changes to tourist flows resulting from changing climate and weather patterns. However, tourists are not a homogenous group, as they have different motivations, values, and goals. Therefore, the purpose of this investigation is to better understand potentially varying perceptions and behavior of different tourist types, specifically in regards to their weather sensitivity, climate change concern, and behavioral intention for climate change mitigation. Tourists were randomly surveyed at 20 locations throughout the state of Maine in the United States (n = 704). Segmentation analysis on the activities tourists participated in yielded three segments of Maine tourists: non-nature-based tourists (50.6%), nature-based generalists (16.2%), and nature-based specialists (33.2%). Differences across segments were explored for perceptions of weather impacts, climate change concern, and mitigation intent. Additionally, weather sensitivity was analyzed based on type of overnight accommodations to better understand if this also had a role in differences. Non-nature-based tourists thought that weather variables were less influential during their travels in Maine than the other segments, while nature-based generalists perceived weather to have the highest influence. Additionally, nature-based specialists had the highest level of climate change belief, while nature-based generalists had the highest willingness to engage in climate change mitigation behavior. Results are useful to understand how segments of tourism demand may be altered with a changing climate, such as increased temperatures, precipitation, and storms, and what groups may be the most beneficial to target for marketing or educational efforts to reduce the impact of climate change.     

Experiencing Climate: Finding Weather in Eighteenth Century Cumbria

This article examines whether Tim Ingold's concept of the ‘weather-world’ can be applied within discussions of climate in archaeology. Using a case study of eighteenth century Cumbria, the article first looks at the issues arising when environmental models are used to investigate landscape change. It then assesses the insights on landscape, weather and farming that can be gained from two historical diaries. It is recognised that advances in complex ecosystem and agent-based modelling have improved ‘climate change archaeology’, but that there are aspects of people's relationships with the weather and climate that are ill-suited to quantification. The article concludes by arguing that people's qualitative engagements with the weather are integral to how past people viewed and used the landscape.     

The application of quicklook NOAA AVHRR satellite imagery in Northern Scandinavia for synoptic weather analyses

The suitability of imagery from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA series of satellites for the synoptic classification of circulation trends in the European Arctic is assessed with reference to data from three climate stations. Simplified synoptic cyclonic classifications are derived from the satellite imagery and tested against climate data. Five classes of frontal system are derived from the tracking of systems over the UK‐Scandinavia‐Baltic region using 1460 satellite images over two years. An index based on the qualitative interpretation of satellite imagery was related to the reference data. The tracking of the systems in the imagery also facilitates a comparison of travel times across the region and the frequency of occurrence. Frontal systems that remain largely stationary over the Baltic were found to correlate best with precipitation at the reference sites. The paper thus investigates the use of AVHRR imagery for the categorisation of weather patterns towards deriving quantitative relationships between circulation classes and weather elements (such as temperature and precipitation) where, for example, climate data are sparse or where skills required for the interpretation of Height Potential Fields are lacking.     

‘The languor of the hot weather’: everyday perspectives on weather and climate in colonial Bombay, 1819–1828

This study provides an historical perspective on everyday experiences of weather and climate, through an analysis of the diaries of two colonial figures in Bombay, western India, in the 1820s: Mountstuart Elphinstone (the then Governor) and Lucretia West (the wife of the Chief Justice). The paper explores the ways in which climate impacted upon their daily routine and health, and discusses evidence for the influence of wider climatic narratives within their writings. Climate played a dominant and complex role within colonial discourse, providing both a barrier to colonisation, and a justification for European governance over populations that had become ‘degenerate’ through their exposure to tropical climates. Both of the diaries evidence this influence of climate within the colonists’ daily lives, but demonstrate the differing responses to climate based on the two diarists’ social positions. Mountstuart Elphinstone, in particular, had a strong sense of the impact of climate upon his health, in keeping with contemporary medical beliefs equating climate with physical wellbeing. The paper provides evidence of the evolution of acclimatisation discourse during the early nineteenth century, and suggests that European beliefs concerning tropical climates were changing simultaneously within both the medical establishment and the wider colonial community. The paper also explores the medical excursions that the diarists took to towns in the Western Ghats. It is apparent that their experiences of the climate in such towns were influenced by their prior expectations, a theme which resonates with discourses of climate in our own times.     

Weathering time: walking with young children in a changing climate

ABSTRACT

Children growing up today face a multitude of climate-related challenges, requiring a capacity for creative and ethical modes of attending to both the known and unknown effects of a changing climate. In response to these challenges, I explore the potential in children’s weathering encounters, as observed during an ethnographic research project titled Walking with Wildlife in Wild Weather Times. In particular, I consider the various ways children engage with the weather and what this reveals about our (human) interconnections and minglings with the weather world. In this paper, I focus specifically on the temporal dimensions of child/weather encounters. My aim is to show that taking the time with children to slow down and attend to the elemental affects in the world, can reveal a weathered entanglement of past, present and future and a foundation for a curious and open attentiveness in responding to the climate challenges ahead.     

Assessing the Use of Real-time DataStreme Weather Data in an Introductory Physical Geography Course

The online data from the American Meteorological Society's DataStreme course have been used successfully in a traditional undergraduate college weather and climate class. DataStreme was designed to train K-12 teachers to transform weather data into exciting learning experiences. Adaptation of these materials so that some of this excitement could be infused in a traditional college setting was the goal of this pedagogical experiment. These data and associated learning materials have been adapted specifically for use in undergraduate weather and climate courses and are now being made available by AMS as Online Weather Studies. This paper describes and assesses the use of online data. The assessment involved a comparison of student self-reports of factual knowledge mastery, skills acquisition and satisfaction with the methods used in two sections of the same course, one offered with the real-time weather data and one without.     

关中平原气候变化对低温天气的影响

本文利用陕西省关中平原地区自西向东的宝鸡、泾阳、西安、潼关 4个观测站的逐日气温资料和逐日降水资料 ,分析了关中平原 195 7年到 1972年 16年间本区春季气温、降水与春季低温天气的关系。揭示出关中平原地区春季低温天气发生次数与春季气温存在负相关性 ,与春季降水存在正相关性 ;在所研究的时间段内 ,关中平原地区气候变化趋于冷干 ,春季气候变化趋于冷湿 ,该区春季低温天气的天数趋于增多 ;低温天气的出现与温度的变幅有一定关系。     

Mapping 100 Years of Thornthwaite Moisture Index: Impact of Climate Change in Victoria,Australia

Geographer C. W. Thornthwaite proposed in 1948 a moisture index called Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) as part of a water balance model for a new classification system for climate. The importance of TMI climatic classification has been recognised in many areas of knowledge and practice worldwide over the last 60 years. However, although past climate research was focused on developing adequate methods for climate classification, current research is more concerned with understanding the patterns of climate change. The use of TMI as an indicator for climate change is still an incipient area of research. The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, it is to fully document a methodology based on geostatistics adopted to produce a time series of TMI maps that are accurate and have high spatial resolution. The state of Victoria, in Australia, over the last century, is used as the case study. Second, by analysing these maps, the paper presents a general evaluation of the spatial patterns found in Victoria related to moisture variability across space and over time. Some potential implications of the verified moisture changes are discussed, and a number of ideas for further development are suggested.     

Pressurised pastoralism in South Gobi, Mongolia: what is the role of drought?

The desert-steppe region of southern Mongolia is susceptible to drought and extreme winter weather ( dzud ) that in combination form Mongolia's worst natural hazard. Low precipitation and high climatic variability in this dryland environment impact the landscape and affect pastoralism, the dominant rural lifestyle. Using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), this paper identifies drought occurrence in South Gobi Province, Mongolia. It then examines the relationship of drought with climate factors, interaction with vegetation (derived from Normalised Difference Vegetation Index - NDVI - data), and local human and livestock populations, and the dzuds of 1999–2001. Results show that drought is recurrent in the region, reaching extreme intensity most recently in 2005–2006. In contrast with the prevailing concept of drought impacting dzuds , the study did not find a connection between drought and dzud in South Gobi Province. Though repeated events, these natural hazards occur independently in the region. Climatic variables show increasing temperatures (>1°C), fluctuating precipitation patterns and a decline in vegetation cover. The principal long-term correlation of drought is with human population rather than natural factors, dzud or livestock numbers.     

Vulnerability to climate change hazards and risks: crop and flood insurance

This paper reviews the widely used concepts of risk and vulnerability as they relate to climate and weather hazards, re‐conceptualizes these terms in the context of climate change and illustrates this development using crop and flood insurance as examples. Government subsidization of insurance against risks associated with adverse climatic conditions and weather events, such as flood damage and crop loss, may lead to individual decisions that actually increase the susceptibility of people, property and economic activities to those risks. The processes that give rise to this phenomenon are important in understanding the vulnerability of human populations to climate change. In many regions, existing conditions that give rise to flooding or crop failure are likely to be exacerbated by climate change over coming decades. In the climate change field, vulnerability has been conceptualised as a function of exposure to risk and as an ability to adapt to the effects. In this context, crop and flood insurance are possible adaptive measures. This treatment of vulnerability compares with similar concepts in insurance and risk management whereby events that cause loss are known as perils, and physical conditions, such as climate change, that increase the likelihood of a peril occurring, are known as physical hazards. Human behaviour that increases the exposure of individuals to potential perils is known as morale hazard or moral hazard, depending on the intentions of the person. Vulnerability consequently becomes a function of hazard and responses taken to reduce risk. Examples of crop and flood insurance programs from Canada, New Zealand and the U.S. are used to show how subsidized insurance might create a morale hazard in addition to physical hazards such as short‐term weather events and long‐term climate change, resulting in a higher level of vulnerability than would otherwise exist. These findings demonstrate that human behaviour affects the formation of both exposure and adaptive capacity in the context of vulnerability to climate change. Responses taken to increase adaptive capacity may in some cases be offset by individual behaviour that increases exposure.     

旅游地客流量峰林结构及成因探析——湖南凤凰入境旅游与国内旅游的比较

本文以相对平稳的2011年湖南凤凰每日客流量统计数据为依据,高分辨率分析客流量峰林结构规律及成因,以及入境旅游和国内旅游客流量峰林结构的差异.研究发现,国内客流量年内变化在周、月和季节等时间尺度上均具有明显的规律性,而入境客流量在周时间尺度上无规律可循,仅在月和季节时间尺度上具有一定的规律性.入境客流量峰林结构主要受天气、气候舒适度的影响,而国内客流量峰林结构在受气候变化影响的同时,还与人们的工作及休闲制度密切相关.     

Climatic anomalies,food systems,and subsistence crises in medieval Novgorod and Ladoga

Climatic factors have affected subsistence strategies throughout human history. In northern Europe and Russia, short-term climatic anomalies and weather extremes are commonly thought to underlie famines in the Middle Ages. However, medieval subsistence crises were not just natural disasters and medieval people were not passive victims of climatic anomalies. In addition, the capacity to cope with climatic anomalies has varied temporally and spatially throughout the Middle Ages. Yet only a few studies have explored the climatic impact on regional medieval food systems comprehensively. This article examines the significance of climate variability on subsistence crises in medieval Novgorod and Ladoga (Russia), focusing on the relationship between short-term climate anomalies and crop cultivation. In addition, this paper evaluates the impact of crop failures, frosts, and other weather phenomena on the food system. The materials are drawn from medieval sources, paleoclimatological reconstructions, and archaeological evidence. The results show that short-term climatic anomalies alone rarely lead to severe subsistence crises, and during every famine period there is evidence of other contributing factors, such as unfavourable weather phenomena, disease, or social unrest. The variety of cultivated crops and agricultural techniques is shown to increase the region’s resilience to climatic anomalies and to crop failures.     

Thermal range of coastal tourism resort microclimates

With considerable evidence demonstrating the intrinsic importance of weather and climate for tourist decision-making, the projected redistribution of climatic resources as a result of climate change is anticipated to have important consequences for temporal and spatial patterns of tourism demand. Some of the world's leading coastal tourism destinations (Mediterranean and Caribbean) have been identified as becoming ‘too hot’ for tourism. However, the microclimates of coastal tourism areas have not been considered by such assessments. With a focus on thermo-physiologically relevant climatic parameters, this paper examines the adaptive range of microclimatic conditions available in two coastal resort settings in the Caribbean islands of Barbados and Tobago. Recorded weather parameters include air temperature, black globe temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The microclimatic results, which are presented using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), show that hourly thermal conditions can range up to 4 °C in different outdoor areas of the resort property (beach, garden, pool, cabana). This is salient in terms of characterizing tourism destinations for climate change assessments, as the results reveal that thermal conditions can vary at the micro-scale of a coastal resort, with the ability for tourists to attain thermally comfortable conditions within a single resort property. When a location becomes thermally uncomfortable (i.e. too hot), tourists can change their location (e.g. move from the pool to the beach), providing an onsite adaptive range between 1 °C and 4 °C. The results also demonstrate that thermo-physiologically relevant climatic parameters provide a more precise estimate of the available range of thermal comfort than is inferred from ambient temperature alone. The findings are discussed in the context of tourists’ climatic preferences and reveal that the microclimatic conditions recorded in this study (UTCI 29–36 °C) are well within tourists’ preferred thermal conditions and do not exceed tourists’ thermal thresholds for coastal tourism.     

Climate change perceptions and responses in Scotland's ski industry

The negative impacts of climate change for the ski industry have been well documented. However, research has largely focused on key ski markets in North America and Continental Europe. The study presented in this paper addresses climate change perceptions and responses in the more marginal ski destination of Scotland. Using a qualitative, interpretivist methodology, this paper contributes through a local-scale, single-site study of a ski area where technical adaptations are not utilised and which therefore relies on business responses to climate change. Findings suggest that while local weather is perceived to be a large and unmanageable risk to the industry, and a downward trend is identified in terms of snow reliability, these risks are not perceived to be connected to the wider anthropogenic climate change discourse. Waiting for knowledge to increase before taking adaptive action appears to be the most popular business strategy; however, autonomous adaptation is taking place in the form of business diversification, which mitigates against risks including, but not limited to, climate change. This paper concludes that experiences and perceptions of climate change will be highly localised and as a result so too will adaptive behaviours. Marginal ski destinations such as Scotland will be facing a range of non-climatic impacts which will contribute to their contextual vulnerability to climate change and capacity to adapt.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of the urban heat island effect in a small Brazilian city

This study examined the spatial and temporal patterns of the canopy layer urban heat islands (UHI_UCL) in a small city in southeastern Brazil using the local climate zone (LCZ) system. We analysed the influence of weather conditions, LCZs characteristics, and local surface relief on the UHI_UCL magnitudes. Mobile traverses were used to measure air temperatures during representative nights of wet and dry seasons. Daily maximum magnitudes were observed in compact classes (LCZs 3 and 7) under ideal weather conditions (dry, clear skies, and calm) and higher anthropogenic heat release (weekdays). Seasonal effects on LCZ thermal differences were negligible. The peripheral landscapes were warmer than the city centre in both seasons. Among the warmer areas in the city, magnitudes in compact LCZs 3 and 7 were consistently higher than in LCZ 6. In general, representative sites of the main ‘built’ LCZs in the study area exhibit similar inter-zone temperature patterns to those reported for cities of different sizes from tropical and midlatitude regions. Thermal contrasts of ΔT_{LCZ 3 − D} in the study area reveal significant evidence that small cities can have as strong heat islands as bigger cities. These findings highlight the importance of the LCZ system to identify the main controlling factors driving such thermal differences and the need to extend the application of this approach in other South American cities to yield systematic data of UHI_UCL for urban planning given the coming challenges of climate change over the region.     

Planning for Climate Change Adaptation in a Multi-level Context: The Gothenburg Metropolitan Area

Individual local governments are key players in Sweden's strategy for climate adaptation but their authority does not match the scale of climate change and its impacts. Competences are divided among local, regional and national authorities. Climate adaptation thus requires cooperation, particularly in metropolitan regions. This raises issues of coordination, legitimacy and effectiveness of adaptation measures recommended in local Master Plans. The focus here is on how the 13 municipalities in the Gothenburg Metropolitan Area—expected to be the part of Sweden most affected by impacts of climate change—address and act upon issues of climate change adaptation within the framework of Sweden's Planning and Building Act, which places responsibility for the “common interest” of climate adaptation with local governments. Analysing municipal Master Plans, as well as the comments on these plans from the regional County Administrative Board and from Göteborg Region Association of Local Authorities, the inter-municipal association charged with infrastructural planning, I identify patterns in terms of coordination, legitimacy and effectiveness of planning for climate change adaptation. Results are discussed in relation to propositions from recent research on planning for climate adaptation in multi-level contexts.