GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM OF A REGIONAL ECONOMY WITH A FINANCIAL SECTOR–PART II: A SIMPLE BEHAVIORAL MODEL

ABSTRACT. Simple behavioral assumptions are incorporated into an accounting framework that provides linked budget and balance sheets for sectors of a regional economy. A short-run Keynesian-type model is developed where quantities rather than prices adjust, and where regional prices and interest rates are equal to national levels. The analysis highlights the importance of the financial services sector as an active factor in regional growth. Consumer deposit and debt preferences, and limitations imposed on credit extension by the financial services sector can have important effects on the regional economy as evidenced by changes in the export multiplier.     

Employment Opportunities,Wages and International Migration in Sweden 1970–1989

In this study I focus on the impact of aggregate labor turnover and regional labor market conditions on gross in- and out-migration within the framework of a neoclassical flexible-wage (equilibrium) model and a fixed-wage (labor-market disequilibrium) model. Using annual panel data on internal gross migration flows in Sweden from 1970 to 1989, I find that regional differences in employment opportunities have the expected effects on migration. The empirical relationship between real wages and gross migration flows is found to be less congruent with theory implications, indicating that compensated regional income prospects are equalized primarily via the interaction between employment opportunities and gross migration flows. Cyclical changes in hirings are shown to have a robust and strongly significant positive scale effect on migration.     

TRANSBOUNDARY INCOME AND EXPENDITURE FLOWS IN REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS*

ABSTRACT. Nearly all regional input-output models have been constructed without a proper accounting of inflows and outflows of personal income and personal consumption expenditures. Typically invoked is a no cross-payments assumption, analogous to the no cross-hauling assumption for commodities. We present a new accounting framework based on the classification of flows according to the location of income generation, receipt, and spending, and argue that only flows endogenous in all three respects should be part of a closed regional I-O model. We use the framework to compute the upward bias in multipliers in a typical regional I-O model. We also present several methods for estimating transboundary flows.     

Regional inequality in China during its rise as a giant exporter: A value chain analysis

China's exports success has implications for regional income inequality, because most of its export products are manufactured in the coastal zone. We propose a value chain-based accounting framework to quantify the contributions of exports to regional income inequality. We employ newly developed interregional input–output tables for China, which distinguish between processing export activities and ordinary export activities. We analyze the period 2002–2012, the decade during which China became the “Factory of the World.” We find that an RMB of processing exports contributed much more to regional inequality than an RMB of ordinary exports or domestic final demand. Still, changes in regional inequality (increasing in 2002–2007 and decreasing between 2007 and 2012) are much more due to rising ordinary exports in the first subperiod and the growth of domestic final demand coupled with changes in the configuration of value chains in the second.     

Regional Policy in Transition - A Multi-level Governance Perspective on the Case of Denmark

Denmark would appear to be a radical, but overlooked, example of the general Western European trend away from national top-down schemes towards a situation where regional policy is a multi-level activity in which European and regional actors are heavily involved. In order to analyse such transformations the article first proposes a conceptual framework capable of accounting for different forms of regional policy and their interaction, and then applies it to the Danish case. The analysis of inter-organizational relations, strategies and resource dependencies show that in Denmark the new paradigm in regional policy resembles a decentralized form of industrial policy in which regionally-based actors play a major role via their organizational and informational resources, but that central government still plays a major role as a regulator of the activities of other actors within a multi-level institutional setting.     

The Local Implications of Major Job Transformations in the City: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach

The changing dynamics of regional and local labor markets during the last decades have led to an increasing labor market segmentation and socioeconomic polarization and to a rise of income inequalities at the regional, urban, and intraurban level. These problems call for effective social and local labor market policies. However, there is also a growing need for methods and techniques capable of efficiently estimating the likely impact of social and economic change at the local level. For example, the common methodologies for estimating the impacts of large firm openings or closures operate at the regional level. The best of these models disaggregate the region to the city (Armstrong 1993; Batey and Madden 1983). This paper demonstrates how spatial microsimulation modeling techniques can be used for local labor market analysis and policy evaluation to assess these impacts (and their multiplier effects) at the local level‐to measure the effects on individuals and their neighborhood services. First, we review these traditional macroscale and mesoscale regional modeling approaches to urban and regional policy analysis and we illustrate their merits and limitations. Then, we examine the potential of spatial microsimulation modeling to create a new framework for the formulation, analysis and evaluation of social and local labor market policies at the individual or household level. Outputs from a local labor market microsimulation model for Leeds are presented. We show how first it is possible to investigate the interdependencies between individual's or households labor market attributes at the microscale and to model their accessibilities to job opportunities in different localities. From this base we show how detailed what‐if microspatial analysis can be performed to estimate the impact of major changes in the local labor market through job losses or gains, including local multiplier effects.     

Spatial Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence

This paper suggests some new empirical strategies for analyzing the evolution of regional income distributions over time and space. These approaches are based on extensions to the classical Markov transition matrices that allow for a more comprehensive analysis of the geographical dimensions of the transitional dynamics. This is achieved by integrating some recently developed local spatial statistics within a Markov framework. Insights to not only the frequency with which one economy may transition across different classes in the income distribution, but also how those transitions may or may not be spatially dependent are provided by these new measures. A number of indices are suggested as ways to characterize the space‐time dynamics and are illustrated in a case study of U. S. regional income dynamics over the 1929–1994 period.     

HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND EXPENDITURE IN EXTENDED INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS: A COMPARATIVE THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT At the regional level in-migrant and indigenous workers are likely to have different income levels and consumption propensities. The effects that these differences have upon a local economy are explored within an extended input-output modeling framework. Two iterative input-output models, due to Miernyk et al. and Blackwell, are recast as systems of simultaneous equations and are shown to produce identical results. A detailed analysis is made of model structure and a method is outlined for the decomposition of income multipliers. Empirical versions of the two models, for Boulder and Cork, are reconstructed with data from the original studies and are used to make comparisons of the two local economies.     

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS IN LOCAL HOUSING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. METROPOLITAN REGIONS

ABSTRACT.  This paper investigates the effects of national and regional economic conditions on outcomes in the single-family housing market: housing prices, vacancies, and residential construction activity. Our three-equation model confirms the importance of changes in regional economic conditions, income, and employment on local housing markets. The results also provide the first detailed evidence on the importance of vacancies in the owner-occupied housing market on housing prices and supplier activities. The results also document the importance of variations in materials, labor and capital costs, and regulation in affecting new supply. Simulation exercises, using standard impulse response models, document the lags in market responses to exogenous shocks and the variations arising from differences in local parameters. The results also suggest the importance of local regulation in affecting the pattern of market responses to regional income shocks.     

A Flexible Mathematical Programming Model to Estimate Interregional Input–Output Accounts*

Abstract. This study implements and tests a mathematical programming model to estimate interregional, interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions based on an interregional accounting framework and initial information of interregional shipments. A national input–output (IO) table, regional data on gross output, value‐added, exports, imports, and final demand at sector level are used as inputs to generate an interregional IO account that reconciles regional economic statistics and interregional transaction data. The model is tested using data from a multiregional global IO database and shows remarkable capacity to discover true interregional trade patterns from highly distorted initial estimates.     

Land Markets in the Harris-Todaro Model: A New Factor Equilibrating Rural-Urban Migration

Recent research in the Harris-Todaro (HT) tradition has added an important new element to the model by incorporating an urban land market. Brueckner and Zenou (1999) (hereafter BZ) argue that a model where migration equalizes expected wages between city and countryside may overlook another important force that equilibrates the process of rural-urban migration. This force is the migration-induced rise in the urban cost of living, which occurs principally through escalation of urban land rents as the city population expands. Land-rent escalation, which tends to limit rural-urban migration, provides an important additional force that may help determine city sizes in developing countries. The present paper provides a simpler alternative to BZ's analysis by assuming that urban residents smooth their income as they cycle between formal and informal employment. This allows migration decisions to be based on the expected wage, as in the usual HT framework, in a model that includes a land market. The analysis shows that this modified framework generates results slightly different from those of BZ.     

Why are artists getting poorer? About the reproduction of low income among artists

In the period 2006 to 2013, Norway has experienced a substantial increase in public subsidies to culture as well as a substantial increase in real income growth in general. This paper discusses different explanations for why Norwegian artists’ real artistic income has declined between 2006 and 2013, despite the positive economic development in Norway. We have based the study in particular on two comparable studies on the income and work situation of Norwegian artists in 2006 and 2013. We analyse and discuss why the artists’ real artistic income has declined during this period. We do not find a single, general, explanation for this, but the income decline does not primarily seem to be due to either an increasing number of artists or a decline in public scholarships to artists. Our two most striking findings are: (i) A substantial decline in most artists’ artistic working hours and a corresponding increase in artistically related and non-artistic working hours, and (ii) a tendency for artists to derive less of their income from the market, together with an apparent decrease in cultural consumption (spending) among Norwegians. These two factors – especially the latter – seem to be the major factors behind the decline in artistic income.     

SOCIAL POLICY AS REGIONAL POLICY: MARKET AND NONMARKET FACTORS DETERMINING REGIONAL INEQUALITY

ABSTRACT We decompose the recent changes in regional inequality in Brazil into its components, highlighting the role of spatially blind social programs. We aggregate personal income micro data to the state level, differentiating nine income sources, and assess the role of these components in the observed changes in regional inequality indicators. The main results indicate that the largest part of the recent reduction in regional inequality is related to the dynamics of the market‐related labor income, with manufacturing and services favoring deconcentration. Labor income in agriculture, retirement and pensions, and property rents and other sources favored concentration. The social programs Bolsa Família and Benefícios de Prestação Continuada are responsible for more than 24 percent of the reduction in inequality, although they account for less than 1.7 percent of the disposable household income. Such positive impact on regional concentration is impressive, since the goals of the programs are clearly nonspatial.     

基于不同区划系统的中国区域经济差异分解研究

基于不同区划系统,采用锡尔系数分解方法来定量测度中国区域经济差异。首先,基于省级空间单元,通过一阶段锡尔系数分析1978年以来中国区域差异的格局及其动态演变;然后,分别基于三大地带--省(直辖市、自治区)--地(市、区、自治州)或者县(市辖区、县级市、县)这两类三级结构的地域行政单元,运用二阶段嵌套锡尔系数分解方法,将差异进一步分解至省内差异水平上,由此揭示出不同于省际分析的区域经济差异特征:省内差异是全国总体差异的重要组分,对于总体差异的影响较地带间差异和省间差异显著得多。     

Evolution of the Labor Market in a Regional City:The Changing Economic Performance of Emigrants from Mexico City*

Abstract. This paper draws on micro‐level data to fully inform the debate on decentralization and regional development. Using labor‐income trajectories of emigrants from Mexico City, the paper analyzes how the labor market in a regional city, Leon, evolves. Results from the econometric model suggest that migrants’ labor‐income trajectories differ between the large agglomeration and the regional city in an early stage of the evolution of the labor market, but converge in a later stage. Specifically, the slope of the earning function for recent migrants is steeper and statistically different from the slope for early migrants. The findings presented in this paper enrich the existing theory by providing microfoundations to a typically macroeconomic area of research and enable policy makers to better understand the processes underpinning the evolution of regional labor markets.     

A Dynamic Household Model for the Housing Market of Amsterdam

This paper addresses the issue of incorporating household dynamics into operational dynamic urban models. Dynamic model approaches that can be used to model urban change are introduced and discussed. We conclude that these different approaches are best combined in an accounting framework. An example of an accounting framework for a dynamic model of Amsterdam is presented. The household submodel is discussed in detail and some preliminary results are given.     

上海市就业市场状况与城市犯罪的空间计量分析

基于2008年上海市经济普查数据和城市犯罪数据,改变以往学者以失业率描述就业市场状况的做法,构建就业市场状况指数,并将其扩展到所有行业;同时,构建空间计量模型,研究上海市就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系,结果表明:1)就业市场状况对刑事犯罪率影响显著,不同行业的影响并不相同;其中,批发零售业、租赁和商业服务业、居民服务和其他服务业、公共管理和社会组织业就业的集中会引发犯罪活动的发生。2)空间计量模型在解释就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系时,计量效果良好。3)"空间效应"是影响刑事犯罪率的重要因素,其影响来自"空间邻近效应"和"空间误差效应"。     

Clusters versus Cluster Initiatives,with Focus on the ICT Sector in Poland

The article focuses on the topic of clustering, which has become a popular concept, both from the academic and political perspective, and as an efficient business model. The distinction between clusters, understood as geographical concentrations of specific industries, and cluster initiatives, understood as more formalized actions undertaken by regional actors, is proposed. The primary objective of this study is to verify if these two types of structures are overlapping each other. This problem arises because the motivation for forming some cluster initiatives may be different economic policy instruments rather than existing market potential of a specific regional economy. The study finds that not all of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) cluster initiatives in Poland represent real concentration of ICT-related divisions included in statistical classification of economic activities in the European community Rev. 2 classification, as measured by location quotients (LQs) for indicators on employment, firms' incomes and number of enterprises. However, there is a visible pattern that the LQs are higher in smaller geographic areas (NUTS 4 (Nomenclature of units for territorial statistics)), which usually represent big cities, being the cores of cluster initiatives. The study also discusses the phenomenon of the internationalization of clusters and the value added to that process from forming formalized cluster initiatives, which create favourable institutional framework for transborder cooperation.     

近期内未出游城镇居民的旅游障碍与目的地选择偏好研究

通过与近3年内有过国内旅游经验的城镇居民进行对比分析,本文对近3年内未出游城镇居民的旅游障碍和目的地选择偏好进行了研究。文章以城镇居民为调查对象,采用问卷调查、统计分析的方法进行实证研究,在全国15个城市发放2500份问卷,共收回有效问卷2296份,其中近期内未出游城镇居民问卷639份,然后以近期内出游者样本作为对照组,利用对比分析和非参数Ridit分析等方法分析近期内未出游者,并得出如下主要结论：（1）时间因素、经济因素、心理因素和旅游意识因素构成近期内未出游者的主要旅游障碍;（2）相比近期内出游者,近期内未出游者的经济因素、身体因素和旅游意识因素的障碍性更强;（3）近期内未出游者的目的地选择因素按偏好程度可以划分为6个层次,其中旅游安全和目的地环境是最重要的因素,但相比于近期内出游者,旅游的总费用和目的地环境条件（包括餐饮、交通等）对该群体影响更大,而核心吸引物的优劣影响则较小。在此基础上,本文还针对性地提出了市场拓展策略。     

REGIONAL INCOME EVOLUTION IN SOUTH AFRICA AFTER APARTHEID*

ABSTRACT South Africa is one of the wealthiest countries on the African continent. The high national level (and growth) of GDP per capita, however, masks significant differences in economic performance across South Africa's regions. This paper uses (spatial) Markov chain techniques to describe the evolution of the entire cross‐section regional income distribution in terms of its intra‐distributional characteristics during the post‐Apartheid period. The results indicate a heavily diverging regional income distribution. Relatively poor regions are likely to remain poor or become even poorer and the richest regions will maintain their lead in terms of income levels. Explicitly taking account of space furthermore shows that these high‐income regions are acting as local growth poles, absorbing economic activity from their immediate surroundings. Location, trade, education, and the variable fortune of the gold mining industry seem to be important determinants of the observed evolution.