Diversity and employment growth in Canada, 1971–2001: can diversification policies succeed?

In this paper, we explore the link between diversity in the local economy, the process of diversification and employment growth. To do so, we first examine diversification trends between 1971 and 2001 across 382 Canadian areas (urban and rural). We then examine whether or not the more diversified areas display faster employment growth. Over some periods and for some types of area they do, but over other periods they do not. Furthermore, there is no clear link between the process of diversification and growth. Also, proximity to a large diversified economic unit (metropolitan areas) tends to be associated with growth; thus, it is not only the local characteristics of regions that determine their growth levels. Our evidence suggests that economies associated with diversity can occur concurrently with economies associated with specialisation. In the light of these complex relationships, we conclude that diversification policies are difficult to justify on the grounds of employment growth and would in any case be difficult to implement successfully due to the overall inertia observed in diversity levels.     

都市区与非都市区城镇用地扩张的驱动力研究——以长三角地区为例

本文利用土地变更调查数据与经济社会统计数据,分析2001-2006年间长三角地区都市区与非都市区以及都市区内部不同单元的城镇工矿用地变动差异和主要影响因素,探讨都市区城镇用地扩展的驱动机制及演变特征。研究发现,虽然长三角地区城镇用地的整体扩张速度正趋于放缓,但变化趋势在不同类型的区域间存在明显差异。都市区比非都市区增长地更快,其中外围县地区超越中心市成为新一轮的增长热点地区。利用人口、非农产业、房地产投资等社会经济活动指标数据所做的回归分析表明,非农产业的发展是推动都市区城镇用地扩展的关键因素,而对非都市区的城镇工矿用地扩展而言,城镇人口集聚的拉动仍在起主要影响作用。在都市区内部存在功能分工的背景下,中心市与外围县在驱动因素和效果上存在差异。     

THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC DIVERSITY ON UNEMPLOYMENT AND STABILITY*

ABSTRACT. For many years, regional scientists, economists, and geographers have been unable to clarify the influence of economic diversity on unemployment and instability in regional economies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. This article presents plausible theory, proper units of analysis, valid measures, and more inclusive models of the diversity-stability relationship. The findings are generalizable because the sample includes most metropolitan areas in the U.S. The empirical analysis estimates the influence of diversity, employment concentrated in unstable industries, population size, growth rate, and control variables on unemployment and employment instability during the 1972–88 period. The results indicate that metropolitan areas which are more diverse experience lower unemployment rates and less instability than areas which are less diverse.     

Troubled water? Acquiescence,conflict, and the politics of place in watershed management

Controversy surrounds proposed revisions in access and recreation policy at central Massachusetts' Wachusett Reservoir, a crucial source of drinking water for metropolitan Boston. This policy conflict illuminates a broader tension between rural and exurban resource-supply areas and metropolitan areas that are committed to resource extraction and urban growth. Boston dominates the reservoir region and extracts its resources, while less powerful local residents disagree with and sometimes protest against policies detrimental or perceived to be detrimental to their interests. Despite this tension, data gathered from surveys at the reservoir, supplementary interviews, archival research, and attendance at public meetings reveal that many potential sites of acrimony are characterized by positive attempts to reclaim place rather than direct opposition to outside domination. Findings suggest that residents in the reservoir region have attached their own values to the reservoir, including both rational valuation of specific non-drinking-water benefits and non-instrumental valuation of the reservoir as an integral part of residents' lifeworlds. Although tensions persist between Boston and the Wachusett region, area residents' complex valuation of the reservoir as a space of utility and a place of everyday life suggests opportunities for consensual resource coalitions and initiatives.     

Rising Inequality in an Era of Austerity: The Case of the US

US inequality has rapidly increased since the early 1970s. For advanced economies, inequality is linked to stronger incentives that enhance growth, education, innovation and entrepreneurship. However, the rise in US inequality is concentrated in the top 1%. Hence it is increasingly possible that economic rewards may be too uncertain to promote effort, suggesting the US has crossed a tipping point in which inequality reduces growth. Other costs include more social and political instability, making inequality the next potential “crisis” facing America. This study first examines trends in inequality and then reviews arguments that suggest that it is both good and bad for growth in America's cities. We then provide evidence that there has been a reversal in the effects of inequality after 2000 with it now being associated with less income and job growth in US metropolitan areas. We conclude by arguing that no general solution is possible without significant political reforms that equalize political influence.     

The Influence of Local Contextual Characteristics on the Implementation of a Statewide Voter Initiative: The Case of California's Substance Abuse and Crime Prevention Act (Proposition 36)

Much of the scholarship on initiatives emphasizes the link between voting behavior and initiative election outcomes or the strategies employed during the policy enactment phase. Little research has considered implementation or whether initiatives ultimately achieve their intended goals. Although the initiative process provides a direct link between the people and policy, it cannot be assumed that upon voter approval, an initiative will simply be implemented in a meaningful and uniform manner within the scope of the initiative's original intent. Using a case study of California's Substance Abuse and Crime Prevention Act (SACPA/Proposition 36) I ask how local politics and other contextual factors influence the implementation of a statewide voter initiative. Using aggregate data drawn from each of California's 58 counties, results indicate that politics at the county-level, measured via counties' general ideological dispositions and more specific policy preferences toward drug abuse and drug offenders affect how they implement the initiative. Contrary to popular conceptions, results here confirm that initiatives are not uniformly implemented, but in fact, will be manifested in quite different ways due to local contextual differences.     

La dynamique spatiale des marchés locaux de l'emploi au sein du champ métropolitain de Québec, 1981–2001

Spatial Dynamics of Local Labour Markets in the Québec City Metropolitan Field, 1981–2001
This research analyzes the spatial dynamics (from 1981 to 2001) of local labour markets at an infra-regional scale, namely the Québec metropolitan field, with particular emphasis on interactions between the metropolitan region and its hinterland. It seeks to better understand the factors underlying this evolution. Centrographic analyses were performed to characterize the evolution of the spatial configuration of local labour markets (displacement of gravity centre, shape change, evolution of dispersion indices and of workforce preferential distribution axes). Between 1981 and 2001, almost all employment poles experienced an increase in the mean-distance tied to their recruitment area, that being particularly true for peri-metropolitan poles which employ an increasing part of their workforce inside the metropolitan labour basin, where a more qualified and diversified labour force is available; thus, giving rise to significant reverse commuting. In addition to the influence of distance to metropolitan area, a multiple regression model shows that factors such as manufacturing specialization and employment growth within job centres also play a crucial role in the spatial dynamics of local labour markets in the Québec City metropolitan field.     

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic change in nonmetropolitan areas

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic growth in nonmetropolitan regions of the United States is estimated using data for 1960-1970. The dependent variables considered include in-migration, out-migration, growth in employment, and growth in income. The findings indicate that there is a definite link between the patterns of economic and demographic change in nonmetropolitan areas but that it differs in important respects from that which has been observed in metropolitan areas.     

FROM THE FIRM GROUND OF RESULT AND FACT TO THE TOSSING SEA OF CAUSE AND THEORY: THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN URBAN DEVELOPMENT*

Are government policies of any real significance in shaping the pattern of development in metropolitan regions? This essay summarizes the widely-held view that ‘economic forces’ determine the distribution of jobs and residences in urban areas, and argues that this conclusion involves serious conceptual difficulties. The essay then shows how the theory of political influence and related concepts can be used to clarify the issue of causation in urban development, and summarizes the authors' own substantive conclusions—that under certain specifiable conditions government activities do have a highly significant role in shaping metropolitan growth.     

In the Shadow of the Tower: Spatial proximity to mosques,visible diversity,and support for the radical right

Growth in racial, ethnic, and religious minority populations in western societies has coincided with the growing success of nativist and radical right political parties. A leading target for nativist politicians has been Islamic religious symbols, particularly mosques. But does the presence of mosques within citizens’ milieux influence their political behaviour? To explore this question, we draw on longitudinal survey data from the Netherlands augmented by a web-scraped list of Dutch mosques to investigate the influence of local context – both architectural context in the form of spatial proximity to mosques and local demographic context in the form of visible diversity – on support for the Party for Freedom (PVV), a radical right, nativist political party. Our analyses reveal that while proximity to a mosque increases support for the radical right, proximity to a mosque with a minaret exerts a stronger effect. Also, closer proximity to a mosque with a minaret and greater local diversity amplify the differences in party support between the left and right. These findings allow us to better understand the impact of symbolic cultural threat on voting for nativist parties.     

北京都市区就业-居住空间结构及特征研究

近二十年来,在经济社会转型和城市化进程不断加快的背景下,我国许多大城市的就业-居住空间结构发生了巨大的变化。本研究以北京都市区为例,建立北京都市区就业-居住基础地理信息数据库,运用GIS空间分析技术对北京就业-居住空间关系进行多尺度分析,在界定就业中心和居住中心的基础上,评价北京都市区的就业与居住平衡状况。研究结果表明,就业-居住分离是当今北京城市空间结构的突出特征。     

Delivering a national spatial development strategy: a success story?

The Slovenian national planning policy has been in a renewal process since 2014. The process required an evaluation to reveal to which level the defined measures have been delivered and discuss the policy’s future role. The mixed-methods evaluation approach consisted of a document analysis, a questionnaire with local communities and interviews with representatives of the ministries. Implementation of measures depends on multiple factors: capacity, personal priorities of actors, interpretation skills, financial support, political will for co-operation, etc. The potential to mitigate the influence of factors on implementation through a co-evolutionary trend of planning is elaborated in the light of Europeanization.     

Government institutions and the dynamics of urban growth in China

Economic growth in China in recent decades has largely rested on the dynamism of its cities. High economic growth has coincided with measures aimed at improving the efficiency of local governments and with a mounting political drive to curb corruption. Yet the connection between government institutions and urban growth in China remains poorly understood. This paper is the first to look into the link between government efficiency and corruption, on the one hand, and urban growth in China, on the other hand and to assess what is the role of institutions relative to more traditional factors for economic growth in Chinese cities. Using panel data for 283 cities over the period between 2003 and 2014, the results show that the urban growth in China is a consequence of a combination of favorable human capital, innovation, density, local conditions, foreign direct investment, and city‐level government institutions. Both government quality—especially for those cities with the best governments—and the fight against corruption at the city level have a direct effect on urban growth. Measures to tackle corruption at the provincial level matter in a more indirect way, by raising or lowering the returns of other growth‐inducing factors.     

Benefitting from Learning Networks in “Open Innovation”: Spin-off Firms in Contrasting City Regions

R&D and innovation increasingly take place in networks that extend beyond the boundaries of a single firm, with customers in an important role in the learning processes involved. This phenomenon is captured by the term “open innovation”. Advantages of open innovation encompass cost reduction and an increased competitiveness. Spatial innovation theory however indicates that the potential of open innovation is not the same for all urban regions, there may be differences between large metropolitan areas and small cities. In this context, the authors compare university spin-off firms in two contrasting urban regions in Europe, Delft in the Netherlands and Trondheim in Norway (a metropolitan area versus an isolated city) with regard to the profile of their learning networks and the contribution of these networks to growth. Learning networks appear to differ in structure and strength, in spatial configuration and also in the influence on job growth. Thus, networks in Delft (in a large metropolitan area) tend to be stronger compared to those in Trondheim (isolated city), whereas the influence of network strength on growth tends to be negative in Delft but positive in Trondheim. Overall, firms in Trondheim tend to rely more on own resources and capabilities and less on learning networks in open innovation.     

Research,knowledge transfer,and innovation: The effect of Italian universities’ efficiency on local economic development 2006−2012

We test whether there is a link between the performance of universities, measured through a concept of efficiency, and the economic development of the regions in which they operate. Indicators of teaching, research, and third mission are considered as outputs. To handle endogeneity problems between the efficiency of universities and economic development, a system generalized method of moments and then an instrumental variable approach are used. Our findings reveal that the presence of efficient universities fosters local economic development. Knowledge spillovers occur to areas that are in close geographical proximity to efficient universities. Results are robust to different estimation strategies.     

The role of aviation networks for urban development

City officials are continuously working to attract airlines willing to fly to new destinations. The inherent expectation is that a more extensive aviation network stimulates economic growth. This paper investigates empirically the causal implication of this hypothesis. Using data on nonstop flights by origin and destination over the period 1984–2013, we propose a new measure for a metropolitan area's connectivity to the national aviation network. We then use this measure to investigate its contribution to local economic development, as captured by the growth in population, in total employment, in per-capita income, and new firm entry. To ensure causality, we use instrumental variable methods that exploit geography and destination airports growth as a way to capture the exogenous variation in the likelihood to add new travel routes. Our results suggest that a metropolitan area's air connectivity, resulting from an expansive local aviation network, has a positive effect on population, on employment and on the number of businesses established in that location.     

地方政府管治下城市空间拓展——以广州市为例

改革开放以来的一系列制度变化对地方政府的政府职能和管治手段提出了新的要求,并由此对城市空间拓展产生了深远影响。以广州市为研究对象,探讨了其近十年城市空间拓展与地方政府管治的关系,发现市级政府以行政区划调整为手段、以战略规划为纲领的管治方式主导了城市生产及流通空间的建设;同时,由于各级政府之间利益协调的原因,地方政府管治过程出现了尺度分异,表现为区级政府与房地产市场共同作用下外围地区空间拓展向北低效蔓延的管治失灵现象。通过对政府管治在城市空间构建过程中的作用和成效的探讨,以期对引起人们对中国城市化进程中地方政府管治和城市空间关系的思考。     

LOCAL INPUT AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN U.S. MANUFACTURING: 1972–2002*

ABSTRACT This research analyzes manufacturing growth and decline across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions during the 1972–2002 period. We decompose real value added growth across local labor market areas in the lower 48 U.S. states into contributions from labor, capital, and total factor productivity. We then estimate a model describing the long‐run growth of labor, capital, and productivity and find that increased productivity increases the growth of labor and capital, as well as a positive correlation between labor and capital stock growth. We also find evidence that human capital investment and agglomeration economies encourage productivity growth, while unionization discourages it.     

都市圈发展的新背景、新趋势及其规划响应

随着经济全球化的深入发展,城市之间的竞争日益加剧,城市发展越来越呈现出区域化特征,大都市成为了世界城市和城市化发展的主流。在这样的新背景之下,都市圈发展呈现出一些新的趋势,中心性进一步强化并出现多中心的新形式,空间扩散广域化并日趋连绵成片,区域进一步融合并且跨界发展明显。世界各主要都市圈的规划纷纷对这些新形势做出了响应,即以全球性、整体性的视角来审视都市圈发展所面临的问题,致力于形成多中心的空间结构,促进产业扩散与转移,对交通进行网络化整合,并建立类似都市圈政府的机构对都市圈规划进行管理。这些良好的经验可以作为我国都市圈理论研究和规划实践的有益借鉴。     

A SIMPLE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING QUARTERLY LOCAL-AREA PERSONAL INCOME*

ABSTRACT A single-equation econometric approach is developed for estimating personal income on a quarterly basis for counties and county aggregates (e.g., metropolitan areas). An experiment is conducted on state data to test the accuracy of the estimates. The experiment indicates that they would be highly accurate for large local areas; for local areas comprising at least 20 percent of their state's total personal income, the estimates would fall within 2 percent of BEA-type estimates 95 percent of the time. An aggregate estimation approach is shown to be preferable to a component approach. Using data on local department store sales, the quarterly personal income estimates are shown to forecast better than the currently available annual estimates.