新型城镇化下中部流出地村庄的人口转型特征与微观成因——以湖南岳阳市为例

新型城镇化驱动下,乡村人口转型呈现就近非农化不断增强等新特征。本文以岳阳市为例,首先揭示人口转型的总体格局,选定城关型、偏远山区型、传统农业型三个典型村庄,全面透视其外出、常住人口的转型特征,揭示自然本底、地域经济、社会服务的影响。发现：中部地区人口以流向省外为主,但回流增强,主要流向镇街;城关型村庄人口以就近（地）非农化为主;偏远山区村庄异地城镇化为主、就近非农化为辅;传统农业村庄人口外流、就近城镇化与非农化并存;村庄资源禀赋及利用程度、地域经济水平、生活服务配套等对人口外出程度和距离、择居（业）、年龄和家庭结构、村庄兴衰有不同影响,城镇化应因况施策。     

基于腾讯迁徙大数据的长三角城市群春运人口流动时空特征

开展城市群人口流动研究对促进区域人口有序流动和城市群协同发展具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。本文基于腾讯迁徙大数据，运用GIS空间统计和K-shell分解等方法，从人口流动总量、位序、时序和网络层级等方面，对我国长三角城市群2018年春运期间的人口流动特征进行系统研究。结果表明：①长三角城市群春运期间大规模的“返乡流”和“返城流”呈现明显的对称性，并分别于除夕和第一个工作日达到最高峰。②经济发展水平相对较高的上海、苏州、杭州等为劳动力输入型城市，而经济发展水平相对较低的盐城、安庆和滁州等为劳动力输出型城市。③长三角城市群内部人口流动网络具有明显的层级特征，其中上海和杭州是人口辐射核心城市，上海-合肥、上海-南京、上海-杭州等是人口流动的主体路径；空间上东部-西部横向人口流动最为频繁，大体呈现“Z”字形。     

西安市人口的分布变动研究

基于三次人口普查数据,对西安市80年代以来的人口分布变动进行了系统研究。结果表明:西安市在20世纪80年代便已形成"中心区人口减少、内圈和中圈人口快速增长、外圈人口低速增长"的区域差异格局,90年代这种区域差异格局更明显。通过人口分布模型的回归拟合,尝试性预测了西安市未来人口分布的趋势。结果显示:2010年西安市人口分布的峰值将出现在距市中心约2.5km的城墙与二环线之间。最后探讨了西安市人口分布变动的促进机制。     

我国目前面临的人口安全风险及应对措施

本文依据人口安全的基本内涵及其重要性,分析了目前我国人口安全面临的风险,并结合中共中央、国务院《关于全面加强人口和计划生育工作统筹解决人口问题的决定》精神,就如何应对我国人口安全风险进行了相应的对策探讨。     

人口的增殖流动与明清华北平原的村落发展

影响村落生长的因素主要是村落人口的自然增殖与流动。融入型人口流动改变了村庄的姓氏结构,它是多姓村落形成的主要原因,而寄居型人口流动不但在一定时段改变了村庄的姓氏构成,对村落的裂变以及村落数量的增加也具有很大的影响,它是村落裂变分化的主要原因之一。     

民国时期西北地区少数民族人口迁徙之研究

今天西北地区的民族构成及分布与民国时期各民族的人口迁徙流动有密切关系。灾荒、战乱匪祸及人为的经济、政治压迫等因素共同作用，造成该地区人口的非正常迁徙频繁发生，而且迁徙情势复杂多变，并最终对近代西北社会的发展产生了重大影响。     

略论我国少数民族人口流动及其影响

进入九十年代．我国少数民族社会变迁过程中的一个明显特点就是其人口流动变得日趋活跃。本文以少数民族人口流动为主题,比较全面地阐述了少数民族人口流动的背景、现状及存在的问题．指出了我国少数民族人口流动的特点及其趋势．分析探讨了少数民族人口流动给城市民族关系和少数民族社会发展带来的多种影响。     

中世纪西欧庄园人口变动与商业复兴基础的形成

中世纪西欧商业复兴产生的社会基础在于庄园的内部发展和变动。庄园缓慢的进步导致了人口的增长,人口增长的压力造成了庄园内部的变动。开拓荒地和新庄园的建立,增加了西欧的产品数量,同时也造成了人口的流动,使得原来封闭的庄园出现了松动,为商业复兴提供了物质和人力基础;商人阶层的出现并不是突兀的,也不是从一开始就作为庄园的对立面出现的。他们继承了早期商业交往的形式,商品交往仍然以补充庄园之不足为目的,而且他们在社会中没有地位,但是他们确确实实成了一个新的阶层,并成为职业性商人,为成熟的城市商人的出现蓄积了基础。     

COVID-19疫情对中国节日人口城际出行影响研究

论文基于百度迁徙数据,对比 2020 年与2019年中国清明节、劳动节、国庆节3个重要节日人口城际流动差异,探讨 COVID-19 疫情对中国节日人口城际出行影响。研究指出：①2020年清明节、五一劳动节百度迁徙日均人口城际流动强度分别较2019年同期下降50.1%和45.2%,同时影响程度存在显著的空间差异;②2020年劳动节、国庆节百度迁徙日均人口城际流动强度指数分别较同年前一个节日增加了17.7%和36.7%,人口出行网络的路径权重、紧密性在持续增加。其中劳动节分析表明,疫情影响下人们倾向于短途出行,同时目的地选择更加多元化;③2020年4月份以哈尔滨市为主的局部疫情复发导致黑龙江省人口城际流入、流出水平分别下降 0.360 个单位和0.365个单位,同时对周边地区人口出行存在负向扩散影响。     

探析黑龙江省人口问题及对策

黑龙江省近年来出现了人口自然增长率低、出生率低及老年人口比例迅速上升等问题,同时大量适龄劳动力人口流失,其中高学历流出人口比例逐年上升.这些人口现象在黑龙江省内引起了诸如人口安全问题和社会保障等问题.本文将针对黑龙江省人口状况、变化发展趋势以及面临的问题进行分析,对引起的问题提出相应的解决策略.     

1995-2010年中国省际人口迁移态势与空间格局演变——基于社会网络分析的视角

采用第五次人口普查、2005年人口抽样调查和第六次人口普查数据,基于社会网络分析的视角,研究了省级尺度下中国人口迁移态势与空间格局演变特征。结果显示:(1)1995-2010年间,中国人口迁移规模迅速增大,省际间人口迁移规模差异明显;上海、浙江人口迁入率显著上升,河南、安徽人口迁出率显著上升。(2)北京、上海、安徽、四川等13省是我国人口迁移网络的核心节点,人口迁移网络表现出中心性、收敛性和地区非均衡性特点。(3)京津地区、长三角地区、广东是我国主要人口辐合流场,安徽、四川、河南、湖南等中部省份是我国主要人口辐散流场。研究表明,不同地区的人口迁移有显著的空间异质性,各地应根据自身人口迁移趋势及在全国人口迁移网络中角色,科学制定区域人口政策与经济社会发展规划。     

Poor people on the move: county-to-county migration and the spatial concentration of poverty

Poverty rates in high-poverty and low-poverty rural counties, and, thus, the spatial concentration of poverty, are affected by poverty-specific differences in in-migration and out-migration patterns. These patterns are investigated using 1985–90 county-to-county migration data from the decennial census. Effects on poverty rates of four migration flows (in- and out-migration of poor, in- and out-migration of nonpoor) are quantified, and their impacts on spatial concentration of poverty are assessed. The effect of selected county characteristics on the migration of the poor and nonpoor in nonmetro counties are estimated. The poor are as mobile as the nonpoor, and the migration patterns of both poor and nonpoor generally maintain and reinforce the pre-existing spatial concentration of poverty.     

基于村域微尺度的人口流动类型空间分异及作用机理——以云南玉龙县为例

村域微尺度人口流动过程对县级单元就近城镇化发展、小城镇发展和新型农村社区建设等方面影响凸显.以云南玉龙县为研究区域,以行政村为基本空间单元,深入剖析人口流动村域类型空间分异特征,识别人口流动村域类型空间分异的关键影响因素及其作用机制.研究表明:①玉龙县村域人口流动特征呈现明显的空间分异,具体表现在人口流动强度和人口流动...     

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic change in nonmetropolitan areas

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic growth in nonmetropolitan regions of the United States is estimated using data for 1960-1970. The dependent variables considered include in-migration, out-migration, growth in employment, and growth in income. The findings indicate that there is a definite link between the patterns of economic and demographic change in nonmetropolitan areas but that it differs in important respects from that which has been observed in metropolitan areas.     

Time-series modeling of gross migration and dynamic equilibrium

Firstly, the high association between in- and out-migration is investigated in a time-series context and modeled according to three categories: 1) job transfer, 2) job search and marriage, and 3) return migration. Under certain coditions it is shown that aggregation of these migrations yields a bivariate time-series model having feedbacks in both directions. Secondly, the recent phenomenon of sharp changes in net migration seems to be discontinuous and, hence, catastrophic modeling [Casetti (1981) may be appropriate. However, this paper considers gross migration between cores (metropolitan areas) and peripheries (rest of the nation) for which a continuous function seems adequate. This is done by introducing a multivariate time-series model. This model is empirically supported, especially in Japan, divided into 32 regions, by t-tests and Durbin-Watson ratios, although it excludes economic variables such as employment growth and wage differentials. This may imply that the recent dispersal from core to peripheral regions could be explained primarily by feedback from return migrants. Finallym, provided future streams of gross migration follow the past trends given by simultaneous equation estimates, in-migration and out-migration would approach a stable state in most regions. Irrespective of random shocks in the future, in- and out-migration would tend to approach a stable equilibrium. According to the estimation of the stable states, the 45 core regions in the US would continue to lose population through net outflows while those in Japan would continue to gain. The present model may thus be valid only for short-term forecasts. By introducing feedback and lag structures, however, it does offer one explanation for the recent population turnaround.     

ECONOMIC REGION NET MIGRATION PATTERNS IN THE USSR: 1979-89

This article investigates economic region net migration patterns in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period. Net in-migration and net migration rate increases (compared to 1970-79) occurred in both the western and eastern portions of the Northern USSR region, while net out-migration and rate declines occurred throughout the Southern USSR. Net in-migration again occurred to Siberia, especially Tyumen' Oblast, and there was a reduced rate of net out-migration from the Nonchernozem Zone and Central Chernozem Region of European RSFSR.     

Regional Out-Migration Rates and Migration Histories: A Longitudinal Analysis

A longitudinal approach to migration behavior makes it possible to identify a sufficient condition for positive associations between rates of in-migration and rates of out-migration in the same regions. The longitudinal approach centers on the intervals of time that individuals spend in a region, and these intervals can be analyzed in terms of probability distributions or the equivalent hazard functions or survivor functions. Differences in the distributions of these intervals between subpopulations whose residence in a region begins with in-migration and subpopulations whose residence begins with other events are sufficient for temporal variations in rates of in-migration to produce variations in out-migration rates in subsequent periods of time. Tests for such differences are performed using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

Urban bound migration and rural investment: the case of Mexico

The authors investigate an agriculturally based policy for improving rural incomes and for retarding the rural-urban migration flow. The production of agricultural goods is characterized by a production function in which output increases with increases in agricultural labor inputs, capital, public infrastructure, land, and technology. Differences among regions in agricultural technology will reflect regional differences in education, the institutionalized form of productive organization, and differences in access to technological information channeled through more technically advanced cities. To pick up the effect of out-migration changes in state agricultural labor supply and upon agricultural output, the state's agricultural out-migration rate is included together with the agricultural labor force. The gross migrant flow between 2 locations is hypothesized to depend upon a set of variables influencing the individual's perception of the economic rate of return to be gained by moving, a set of variables reflecting the individual's propensity to relocate, the labor displacement effects of investments, and the at risk population at 1 location available to migrate. It is also taken into account that individuals differ in their response to information about origin and destination wage differentials and that individuals may or may not perceive a new ecnomic gain from migration but may base the decision on other considerations. Results of a statistical analysis using data from the Mexican census of population for 1960 and 1970 are: 1) size of the rural labor force was negatively associated with agricultural wages, contrary to expectations; 2) small farmers have benefited from the expansion of irrigation in Mexico; and 3) higher urban wages attract migration, and higher growth rate of agricultural income retards rural-urban migration. With respect to the 1950-60 decade both agricultural income and rural out-migration impacts could have been substantial but both the impact on local urban growth and on the rate of in-migration to the primate city would have been slight.     

Impact of Characteristics of Origin and Destination Provinces on Migration: 1995–2000

During the second half of the twentieth century, internal migration in Turkey played an important role in the redistribution of the population, the concentration of capital in major cities, and the expansion and restructuring of metropolitan areas. To be able to explain the results of this restructuring process, it is important to investigate the provincial differences in migration determinants. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the characteristics of origin and destination provinces and the distances between them on internal migration at the end of the twentieth century in Turkey using global and local forms of regression analysis. Therefore, there are two main parts of the study. The first part includes analyzing the in-migration globally. Second, the spatial distribution of the out-migration with respect to determinants among all the provinces of Turkey is investigated. According to the results, in-migrants are correlated with the characteristics of provinces such as industrial employment, service sector employment and number of university students. Out-migration is investigated for each province according to the aforementioned characteristics of the destination provinces and the distances between them. The results of the study reveal that there are locally varying relationships in out-migration in Turkey.     

The assumption of equilibrium in the analysis of migration and interregional differences: a review of some recent research

"This paper questions the plausibility of the assumption of interregional equilibrium in recent research into migration and the valuation of amenities in the United States. It is shown that it is difficult to develop a satisfactory explanation for continuing net migration which is compatible with the equilibrium assumption, and that recent relevant research generally fails to support the idea that the U.S. economy is in equilibrium. The association of higher rent levels with in-migration is explained as a short-run phenomenon. If the spatial economy is in disequilibrium, then the valuations of amenities assuming equilibrium will be biased, being probably too low in areas of net in-migration and too high in areas of net out-migration."