战略性新兴产业空间演化及区域经济耦合发展研究——以长三角区域为例

本文在分析长三角区域战略性新兴产业空间演化的基础上,运用耦合度模型对该区域战略性新兴产业与区域经济协调发展的整体情况和分空间情况进行研究,得出该产业与区域经济耦合促进作用非常明显、该产业仍然滞后于区域经济发展水平、区域经济各发展要素对该产业的贡献度不均衡、该产业发展资金投入不足等结论。最后,对长三角区域如何有效发展战略性新兴产业提出对策建议。     

Institutionalising Future Geographies of Financial Inclusion: National Legitimacy Versus Local Autonomy in the British Credit Union Movement

In Great Britain, financial infrastructure withdrawal and community economic decline have focused attention on the capacity of locally "alternative" financial institutions to combat social and financial exclusion. This paper examines one such institution, the residential or "community" credit union, which provides a low-cost source of credit for members drawn from a common bond area usually based upon place of residence and/or work. Although community credit unions have traditionally been seen as providing individuals and communities with the opportunity to access credit and savings facilities in areas where there has been contraction in bank and building society provision (the financial "mainstream"), ongoing attempts exist to move away from the traditional role of community credit unions. This transition has set up three main challenges for the British credit union movement, discussed in this paper as follows: (1) a struggle over the attempt to redefine the "model" credit union within the national credit union movement; (2) the changing regulatory context for credit union development, including attempts to embrace credit unions within New Labour policies on social exclusion; and (3) a "local" challenge, including the incorporation of credit unions into community economic development initiatives. The paper considers how these challenges feed into wider understandings about the social relations, categorisation and autonomy of locally "alternative" financial institutions. We argue that future research on geographies of financial inclusion focusing on "alternative" institutions and their relationship to the financial mainstream needs to pay close critical attention to potential contradictions and tensions operating at different, yet intersecting spatial scales.     

Capitalizing on Women's Social Capital? Women‐Targeted Microfinance in Bolivia

Both social capital and microfinance are central to mainstream development interventions, and both are predicated on the need to recognize the importance of social factors in development. Microfinance institutions mobilize social capital in the form of a group guarantee, and aim to support the development of sustainable financial institutions and income generation. Women are targeted in part because of the effectiveness of their social capital as collateral. However, although social capital is assumed to support development and income generation, the precise dynamics involved in this are rarely explored. This article examines the construction of social capital and its relationship to income generation, based on a long‐term ethnographic study of village life in rural Bolivia and the microfinance institution operating there. The author examines the complexity and gendered contradictions implied in the way that social capital is generally viewed to support economic development. It is suggested that the way microfinance institutions use social capital to support sustainable financial institutions and income generation does not always reflect the way that women's networks support access to resources and ultimately, economic development.     

Back to BASICs? The Rejuvenation of Non‐traditional Donors’ Development Cooperation with Africa

The world economy is in a state of flux. While most OECD countries struggle to minimize the damage of the global financial crisis, a few countries maintain positive economic growth rates and are thus changing global power configurations. Among the most important emerging economies for international development are the BASIC countries: Brazil, South Africa, India and China. This article analyses why these countries have rejuvenated development cooperation, what they actually do in Africa, and how they do it. It argues that the most important aspect of the rejuvenation of non‐traditional donors’ development cooperation with African economies is not the direct effects on these economies, be they positive or negative, but the potential gains that may accrue to African economies in terms of larger room for manoeuvre due to increased competition and the challenge to traditional donors’ development hegemony.     

1952～1954年湖北省农村私人借贷的历史考察

私人借贷在全国解放前一直是农村金融体系的重要组成部分.解放以后,从1952～1954年湖北省的调查材料来看,由于经济落后、家庭经济弱小、缺乏完善的社会保障和现代金融体系等原因,农村的私人借贷虽受到抑制但仍有一定的发展,与解放以前相比,这一时期的私人借贷形式较为简化,利率较低,功能上也以互助互济为主.国家银行业务在农村的延伸和农村信用社等现代金融组织的发展在一定程度上压缩了私人借贷的空间,但并不能完全替代私人借贷.     

The Macro‐Economic Effects of Directed Credit Policies: A Real‐Financial CGE Evaluation for India

The effectiveness of directed credit programmes as an instrument for economic development is the subject of considerable debate. However, the focus of this debate is almost exclusively on the intra‐sectoral effects of directed credit and its adverse effects on financial sector performance, neglecting possible spillover effects on demand, production and investment in the rest of the economy. This article tries to fill this gap by examining the macro‐economic effects of directed credit in India with the help of a novel real‐financial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Focusing on credit rather than money, the model goes beyond earlier modelling approaches by (1) incorporating directed credit policy and credit rationing; (2) recognizing the dual role of credit for working capital and investment; and (3) allowing for switches between credit‐constrained, capacity‐constrained and demand‐constrained regimes. The results from short‐ and medium‐term simulation experiments with the model indicate that, when credit market failures result in rationing as in India’s agricultural and small‐scale industrial sectors, the macro‐economic effects of directed credit are likely to be significant and positive.     

The Brazilian devaluation: national responses and international consequences

The Asian financial crisis in 1997 reached Latin America the following year. The Brazilian devaluation in January 1999 demonstrated the vulnerability of Latin America's largest economy to external shocks, but it was also a consequence of fiscal imbalance. This article explores the background to the devaluation and explains the circumstances under which it might lead to an improvement in economic performance. The article then examines the impact of the devaluation on Brazil's neighbours in MERCOSUL, particularly Argentina. It also considers the lessons of the Brazilian devaluation in the context of attempts to reform the global financial architecture and in the light of the volatility of capital flows to emerging markets. The main conclusion is that the impact of the devaluation will be felt most strongly in Brazil and that a successful outcome will require economic and political reforms over and above those already adopted by the Cardoso administration.     

Out of the dark but not out of the cage: women's empowerment and gender relations in the Dangme West district of Ghana

In Ghana, strategies to address poverty among rural women have often been linked to women's empowerment programmes with credit as a core component of these. Yet, many programmes focus on the economic benefit to women without necessarily looking at the impact on gender relations at the household level and its implications on women. Using quantitative and qualitative data from the Dangme West district of Ghana, this article shows how poverty reduction programmes with credit components can reduce women's vulnerability to poverty and empower them. But much more needs to be done to complement these efforts. The study shows that women beneficiaries as against women non-beneficiaries have significantly improved their socio-economic status through access to financial and non-financial resources. This has in certain instances improved gender relations at the household level, with women being recognized as earners of income and contributors to household budget. However, some women still regard their spouses as ‘heads’ and require their consent in decisions even in issues that have to do with their own personal lives. Moreover, the improved economic status of women has resulted in a ‘power conflict’, creating confrontation between spouses. The article recommends that, as part of their programmes, assisting organizations and institutions must address ‘power relations’, the basis of gender subordination at the household level, otherwise socio-cultural norms and practices, underpinned by patriarchal structures, will remain ‘cages’ for rural women.     

Welfare accounting and the environment: reassessing Brazilian economic growth, 1965-1993

Few countries in recent decades have experienced economic growth as rapid as that in Brazil. The period spanning the late 1960s and mid 1970s, during which GDP growth was especially strong, is often referred to as the ‘economic miracle’. Yet, the use of per capita GDP growth as a proxy for economic development (or social welfare improvement) can be questioned on both distributional and environmental grounds. Scholars such as Ahluwalia and Chenery have noted that per capita GDP growth places greater weight on the income of richer income groups, and have proposed distribution‐neutral and pro‐poor alternatives. More recently, studies by the World Resources Institute and others have questioned the environmental sustainability of GDP growth and have introduced an alternative national income accounting methodology that factors in estimated losses associated with natural resource depletion. To date, no studies have undertaken both types of revisions concurrently, creating a revised national welfare measure based on per capita GDP, but corrected for both distributional bias and resource depletion. Such a measure is derived in this article and applied to the Brazilian case. The results cast doubt on the proposition that rapid economic growth in Brazil has resulted in comparable welfare gains.     

新中国成立初期中南区乡村个体农民融资途径与结构研究

新中国成立之初,随着国家银行业务在农村的延伸及农村信用合作社的建立,在农村形成了私人借贷、国家农贷与农村信用社三者并存的乡村借贷体系。在新的农村金融体系中,国家银行和信用合作社逐渐占据了主导地位。新体系的建立,增加了农村资金的供给,一定程度上满足了农民克服生活困难、发展家庭经济的需要,同时也压缩了高息借贷的活动空间。     

Brazil as an intermediate state and regional power: action, choice and responsibilities

Since the early years of the twentieth century, Brazil's major foreign policy aspiration has been to achieve international recognition based upon the belief that it should assume its 'natural' role as a 'big country' in world affairs. Although the bases for an autonomous foreign policy have become more restricted in the post-Cold War period, Brazil still seeks to preserve an independent voice within the international community and a certain level of independent capacity to determine its actions. In addition, the country has demonstrated a clear intention of wanting to expand the roles that it plays and the responsibilities that it assumes in regional politics, in Third World agendas and in multilateral institutions. As democracy deepens its roots within the country, Brazil has attempted to link an increasingly activist stance in world affairs with political support at home based upon a more active partisan involvement in foreign policy. In this context, the present government's fight against poverty and unequal income distribution at home and its assertive and activist foreign policy can be viewed as two sides of the same coin. In this article the authors provide an overview of the core features of Brazilian foreign policy, focusing upon four aspects: (i) the instrumental nature of Brazilian foreign policy and its close relationship with the country's economic and development objectives; (ii) the commitment of Brazil to multilateralism; (iii) the growing importance for Brazil of regional politics and security; and (iv) the recent evolution of Brazil's relations with the United States. The conclusion reviews the main challenges facing Brazil and the difficulty of matching increased ambition with concrete results.     

Cash Transfers and the Well‐being of Older People in Brazil

This article provides a comprehensive assessment of the effects of social protection interventions on material and subjective elements of well‐being. Drawing on a longitudinal survey located in two relatively deprived parts of Brazil, it assesses the effects of pensions and other cash transfers on the well‐being of older people and their households. This analysis is located within a dynamic economic and public policy context. The article finds that pension benefits significantly increase per capita income and that this is strongly associated with overall levels of satisfaction with household well‐being. Levels of reported subjective well‐being do not fall as respondents age, and the survey finds high levels of optimism about future well‐being. The positive effects of pension benefits were supported by upgraded health services and by more specific policies such as access to credit on favourable terms. Overall, the authors conclude that a combination of economic growth and effective public policies significantly boosted the well‐being of most households in their survey, and that Brazil can be taken as a model of good practice for other middle‐income countries.     

Remaking the architecture: the emerging powers,self‐insuring and regional insulation

This article examines the interaction between the emerging and traditional powers in global governance reform, and asks whether we are heading towards an international financial system that is more fragmented, where power is more diffused and national and regional arrangements play a more prominent role, at the expense of global multilateral institutions. It begins with a brief discussion of the global systemic and country‐specific factors that motivate Brazil, China and other emerging countries to accumulate large currency reserves. We find that national arrangements for managing financial and currency crises will continue to hold sway for emerging countries in the wake of the global crisis. However, the actual capacity of regional arrangements in managing future financial crises is uncertain, and the significance of regional alternatives in the emerging architecture should not be overstated. The real capacity of East Asian regional arrangements to manage financial crises, payments problems or currency attacks is still untested, and key thresholds in multilateralization still lie ahead. In South America, multilateral lender‐of‐last‐resort support inside the region is largely confined to the sub‐regional level and is limited by Brazil's reticence. Enduring reliance on bilateral measures for financial crisis management is noted. Where there has been progress in regional solutions, since the global crisis, has been in the role of regional development banks in providing financing for developing countries to enact counter‐cyclical policies. Such support also provides insulation for states in the region against the contagion effects of international financial crisis. We are in the midst of transitioning to a more diverse and multi‐tiered global financial and monetary system. A reformed IMF could have a role to play in addressing global imbalances and encouraging a shift from national reserves to collective insurance, however, it would be preconditioned by significant shifts in the policy, lending operations, and internal governance of the Fund, and willingness among the G20 to strike a new consensus on how to deal with imbalances, and new accommodation on acceptable reserve levels.     

A Grassroots Developmental Strategy for Africa: Towns as Agents of Growth Through Financial Credit

Since independence, governmental leaders in Africa have not pursued the policy option of making towns, represented as incorporated units, borrowers of commercial credit. To improve the quality of life among rural populations, governments in Africa should pursue the development strategy of making financial credit available to the towns located in those communities, because there is a high distribution of managerial expertise and material resources among the population. This article considers how African governments may adopt a development strategy that will encourage towns to borrow financial credit to engage in various economic and social activities, just like private companies. If these activities become viable, they may be a useful start in reversing the deterioration in economic and social well-being that several rural communities in Africa have suffered.     

Arthur Koestler and his ties to Zionism and Jabotinsky

At the end of the nineteenth century, and more pronouncedly between the two World Wars, Jews in Eastern Europe created wide networks of credit cooperatives, which at their peak supported about a third of the non-Soviet Jewish population in Eastern Europe. The establishment and continuous management of these cooperatives were greatly assisted by the two major Jewish philanthropic organizations of the period, the Jewish Colonization Association (JCA) and the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee (JDC). These organizations acted as charitable institutions but also as third-sector organizations which aspired both to assist and to socially engineer East European Jewish society. In British Mandate Palestine a Zionist branch of the movement was established, which was, however, free from the influences of these philanthropic organizations. The article describes and analyzes this little-researched phenomenon while seeking to place it within the theoretical frameworks of philanthropy and transnationalism. It concludes with an observational comparison between the political context in which Jewish credit cooperatives were created, namely East European ethnic regimes, and the Israeli ethnic democracy.     

GREEN GROWTH OR ECOLOGICAL COMMODIFICATION: DEBATING THE GREEN ECONOMY IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH

This article examines recent institutional thinking on the green economy and the implications of official understandings and structuration of a green economy for the global South. Assertions about the transformative potential of a green economy by many international actors conceals a complexity of problems, including the degree to which the green economy is still based on old fossil economies and technical fixes, and the processes through which the green economy ideation remains subject to Northern economic and technical dominance. The article places the intellectual roots of the green economy within a broader historical context and suggests some ways the strategic economic and ideological interests of the global North remain key drivers of green‐economy thinking. The analysis is substantiated through two illustrative Latin American examples: the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor and green economy initiatives in Brazil. These suggest that, if the green economy is to address global challenges effectively, it must be conceptualized as more than a bolt‐on to existing globalizing capitalism and encompass more critical understandings of the complex socio‐economic processes through which poverty is produced and reproduced and through which the global environment is being transformed, a critique which also applies to mainstream discourses of sustainable development.     

The Russian economic puzzle: going forwards,backwards or sideways?

The question addressed in this article is whether the recent strong growth of the Russian economy is sustainable. The main difficulty is assessing the conflicting evidence. Developments since the financial crisis of 1998 are reviewed, including growth performance and macro‐economic management. There is an analysis of the nature and extent of Russian economic dependence on exports of oil and gas and the direction towards state control since 2003 is described. The article reviews the interaction of competitive power politics among the political elite with economic policy and assesses factors favouring and factors working against continued rapid growth over the next five years. One conclusion is that informal rules operating in the economy differ across sectors, and Russian economic development is in part robust; but there are powerful influences working towards a slowdown in growth.     

Strengthening the Foundations? Alternative Institutions for Finance and Development

The 21st century has ushered in the emergence of alternative institutions for liquidity provision and development finance, many of which are Southern‐led. The special issue that follows this Introduction assesses the extent to which existing theoretical perspectives and tools are sufficient for evaluating the implications of these alternatives for the global financial architecture. Our analysis finds that while an increasingly varied landscape of diverse institutions designed to foster financial stability and development comes with inherent risks, these new forms of finance bring real benefits to an architecture that has long been deemed insufficient. Larger and more capable Southern‐led institutions not only mean additional sources of financing for emerging market and developing countries, but also could increase their voice in an international financial architecture long dominated by the most advanced economies. That said, the variation in the landscape could create inequities and fault lines between new and existing institutions, which will be difficult to overcome through the coordination of a fragmented and diverse system. Finally, despite the increases in capital for liquidity provision and development made available by these new institutions, significantly more financing and coordination will be needed to achieve financial stability and economic development on a global scale.     

转轨时期中国居民消费行为规律及调整对策

消费需求不足是制约转轨时期中国经济发展的一个关键因素。有效扩大居民消费,实现经济可持续发展,是经济学界关注的重要学术问题。本文借鉴西方消费理论以及国内外相关研究成果,全方位、多视角分析转轨时期中国居民消费行为规律及其变化趋势,探究扩大居民消费的基本对策,以期提高国民生活质量,实现经济的持续增长和社会的和谐发展。