Long-term decline of regions and the rise of populism: The case of Germany

What characterizes regions where right-wing populist parties are relatively successful? A prominent hypothesis proposed in the emerging “geography of discontent” literature claims that places that are “left behind” constitute a breeding ground for the rise of populism. We re-examine this hypothesis by analyzing the rise of populism in Germany. Our results suggest that high vote shares of populist parties are associated with the long-term decline of a region's relative welfare, which goes beyond a lifespan of people inhabiting such “left behind” places. Moreover, we are able to show that a place-based collective memory about past prosperity plays a crucial role in shaping present resentment. Finally, we find the education level of the regional population to be an important channel through which the collective memory about the past translates into populism support today.     

The nation of the people: An analysis of Podemos and Five Star Movement's discourse on the nation

This article empirically explores how populist actors talk about the nation. This is a research area mostly tackled in studies on right-wing populism, with other forms of populist politics usually left out of the analysis. To fill this academic gap, we focus on the Spanish party Podemos and the Italian Five Star Movement (M5S). The former is a paradigmatic example of radical left populism, whereas the latter is commonly considered as a catch-all populist party with no clear ideological connotation. Through a discourse analysis on leaders' speeches and official public declarations, we focus on the role that national identity plays in the strategies of Podemos and M5S and on the type of nation they discursively construct. Whilst Podemos' populist strategy purposely aims at contending to the right ideologically loaded concepts and signifiers to construct an idea of nation fitting the party's leftist values, M5S's strategy mostly aims at appropriating valence issues, such as the “Made in Italy” brand and the concept of “national interest”. Thus, our analysis contributes to clarify the differences between the leftist political culture of Podemos and the “post-ideological” one of M5S, as also reflected by survey data confirming strong differences in “nationalist” attitudes between their respective electorates.     

Partisan Efficiency in an Open-Rule Setting: The Amending Process in the U.S. Senate, 1865–1945

Given significant differences between the House and Senate's amending processes, one would anticipate the Senate majority party to be far less successful when voting on the floor. However, recent work has demonstrated that majority party success on the Senate floor is remarkably similar to the House. We argue that an overlooked explanation for majority party success stems from its ability to control intra-party amending activity through coordination between members of the majority party. Utilizing a new data set consisting of all amendments receiving recorded roll call votes in the Senate from 1865–1945, we demonstrate that majority party extremists refrain from offering amendments despite the relative open-floor setting. Nevertheless, chamber majorities cannot restrict minority legislators from offering amendments designed to force them to cast uncomfortable votes and delay the legislative process.     

Divided Government and the Rise of Social Regulation

Political scientists have debated the causes of divided government since the Reagan administration. In addition, a handful of scholars have also pondered the possible consequences of divided party rule for politics and policy. Still, one serious oversight in the divided'government literature is the potential consequences of divided party rule for the types of policy pursued during divided and unified party regimes. Divided government may create incentives for conflicting institutions to use social regulation debates, often considered the most divisive public policy debates, as "wedges" in order to damage the opposing party in future elections. Each party also has an incentive to embrace social regulation in order to reaffirm its allegiance to its core constituency. This article tests the hypothesis that divided government produces more important social regulation votes than unified government. I define the population of important votes as all Key Votes in the House of Representatives from 1953 to 1998. The data analysis reveals that important social regulation votes are in fact more prominent during eras of divided government than during unified party control. This finding has potential implications for the tenor of our national politics as well as the public trust.     

Labour electoral landslides and the changing efficiency of voting distributions

The translation of votes into seats under first–past–the–post electoral systems with single–member constituencies invariably results in disproportional allocations of seats relative to votes among the main two parties. It also tends to produce biased outcomes, with one party getting a more disproportionate share of the seats with a given share of the votes than does its opponent. In Great Britain, these biases favoured the Conservative party until the 1980s, but now strongly favour Labour. Production of those biases results from a variety of influences involving the interaction of the geography of party support with that of constituency boundaries. Increasingly, that interaction has favoured Labour: without any explicit manipulation of the constituency map to its own ends, it now benefits substantially from the equivalent of the malapportionment and gerrymandering cartographic abuses typical of the United States, because of its ability to manipulate its vote distribution within the constituency system.     

Criss-crossing Boundaries: Ultraorthodox Jewish women go to work

The most prestigious work in the ultraorthodox Jewish community is full-time, unpaid, religious study, which is allocated to men. As a result, married women are often responsible for both homemaking and breadwinning. This study examines the 'going to work' of these Israeli wives as an encompassing operation of two directions--the going to and the coming from work. First, it analyses the sociocultural evolution of ultraorthodox gender identities which induced the 'going to work' of the wives. Second, it probes the personal consequences of job-related exposure to modern values of work and gender, following the wives' 'coming from work.' In-depth interviews with 55 married women holding out-of-community jobs that increase their exposure to modern norms revealed discontent regarding domestic help and the financial contribution of their husbands. Dissatisfaction was articulated in subtle terms, by referring to fatigue and the hope that their husbands would eventually look for paid jobs. Such expressions of discontent, associated with the 'coming from work,' are suggestive of private resistance and the modification of personal values. The gendered geography of ultraorthodox women's work illustrates also the geography of their subordination and resistance.     

Marginality and the New Geography of Domestic Violence Policy in Post-Communist Poland

The article explores the spatial distribution and institutional geography of domestic violence service provision in post-communist Poland. A new institutional geography providing services to victims of domestic violence is emerging in Poland as a result of NGO activism and new pro-woman policies implemented by the state. NGOs, often in partnership with local governments, are the most vital means of service provision in large and medium size cities, while in rural areas, public agencies predominate in the institutional geography of service provision. The assumption that NGOs will emerge to address the needs of victims of domestic violence is not realistic in rural areas. While urban Poland is developing an institutional geography to address domestic violence, state and NGO activists must focus on shrinking the rural margins of Poland's institutional geography.     

Geography and Election Results: Disproportionality and Bias at the 1993–2004 Elections to the Australian House of Representatives

The Alternative Vote system used for elections to the Australian House of Representatives is generally believed to disadvantage the Australian Labor Party in contests with the Liberal and National parties. However, most analyses on which such conclusions are based over-simplify the situation by not separating out the translation of votes into seats according to whether the election outcome in a district is determined using the first-preference or two-party preferred (2PP) votes. Analyses of bias at five recent elections which recognise that separation find little bias against either party in the districts where the determination used the 2PP votes (i.e. no candidate received a majority of the first preferences), but considerable bias in those where the outcome was decided on first-preferences. Furthermore, that bias was not in one direction, but rather favoured the largest party in each of those contests. The reason for this is identified in the geography of support for the two parties, which produces the equivalent of a ‘cracked gerrymander’ in sufficient districts to have a significant impact on the outcome.     

Insurgents against Brussels: Euroscepticism and the right-wing populist turn of the Lega Nord since 2013

Under the leadership of Matteo Salvini, the Lega Nord has shifted away from its previous political identity as a voice for Italy’s north and has placed hostility towards the policies and institutions of the European Union (EU) at the heart of its rhetoric. Nowadays, the enemy is Rome no longer: it is Brussels, European institutions, and the threat to the national sovereignty posed by the EU. Borrowing from the Italian political philosopher Nicola Matteucci, we would describe Salvini’s Lega as a ‘populist insurgency’. That is to say, it is a populist party that marries the traditional populist evocation of the virtues of the people against the corrupt elites, with a pervasive glibness of analysis.     

Globalization,robotization, and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy

Criticism of economic globalization and technological progress has gained support in Italy in the last two decades. However, due to the differentiated exposure of local labor markets to this process, electoral outcomes have varied considerably across the country. By observing the local impact of three global economic phenomena (flows of migrants, foreign competition in international trade, and diffusion of robots) alongside with the patterns of local electoral outcomes potentially associated with discontent, this study analyzes the economic forces driving the evolution of general elections in 2001, 2008, and 2013 in Italy. The analysis reveals that all these global factors had an impact on political outcomes associated with discontent, albeit in different ways and changing over time. All three factors are associated with increases in votes for far‐right parties in the period 2001–2008, but only robotization continues to have such an impact in the following period, while immigration is associated with an increase in votes for the Five‐Star Movement at the expense of far‐right parties. The results and extensions exploiting recent advances in political geography, political economy, and spatial econometrics make it possible to draw some general and methodological conclusions. Global drivers interact with elements pertaining to the political supply that empirical researchers should not be oblivious about. Political spillovers across neighboring areas add to the direct impact of locally mediated economic factors. Finally, the adoption of shift–share instrumental variables to identify the impact of robotization may lack robustness.     

Destroying the Joint and Dying of Shame? A Geography of Revitalised Feminism in Social Media and Beyond

Has feminist geography really lost all relevance? This paper examines what the revitalisation of interest in feminist thought and practice, especially in Australia, means for geography. We illuminate the trajectory of the feminist revitalisation in new media and beyond through developing a spatial analysis influenced by Rose and Fincher. Notions of paradoxical space and issue publics inform this reading of two pivotal moments in the feminist revitalisation: first, the creation of Destroy the Joint, a campaign launched and maintained in Facebook and Twitter spaces; and second, the Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard's speech against sexism and misogyny in Parliament in October 2012. Both these moments, coming from political and public spaces, received worldwide interest, and we critically examine the context and ramifications of these instances while situating the institutional processes surrounding them within the growing feminist revitalisation. In so doing, we argue that these Australian‐based cases indicate a growing feminist movement that is open and multiply focused, connecting personal politics to public campaigning, and achieving material impacts. We conclude that developing a feminist geography of new media is a challenging task, as these spaces circumvent and renegotiate traditional spatial dimensions – including scale and place – through their dynamic networks. It is, nevertheless, a task worth doing.     

A Geography of Consumption and a Geography of Services

Professor Kovalev, a specialist in rural settlement, proposes the development of two new branches of economic geography in the Soviet Union that would be concerned with the study of regional differences in consumption and services. The proposal reflects the increasing concern of the Soviet party and government for raising the living standards of the population. Kovalev discusses a number of methodological problems, such as the availability of data.     

Voter Behaviour in Rural Areas: A Study of the Farrer Electoral Division in Southern New South Wales at the 1998 Federal Election

The National (Country) Party, traditional beneficiary of a countrymindedness ethos in rural and regional Australia, suffered a significant electoral setback at the 1998 federal election from a new conservative force in Australian politics, the One Nation Party. One Nation has been characterised as the party of the ‘old’ Australia, those least able to cope with the pace of recent social and economic changes, rationalisation and centralisation of services and the exodus of people from rural and regional areas. Such a characterisation is supported by findings from this study of the geography of voting and the social correlates of One Nation's support base in the Farrer electoral division in south‐western New South Wales.     

Components of partisan bias originating from single-member districts in multi-party systems: An application to Mexico

We extend the estimation of the components of partisan bias—i.e., undue advantage conferred to some party in the conversion of votes into legislative seats—to single-member district systems in the presence of multiple parties. Extant methods to estimate the contributions to partisan bias from malapportionment, boundary delimitations, and turnout are limited to two-party competition. In order to assess the spatial dimension of multi-party elections, we propose an empirical procedure combining three existing approaches: a separation method (Grofman et al. 1997), a multi-party estimation method (King 1990), and Monte Carlo simulations of national elections (Linzer, 2012). We apply the proposed method to the study of recent national lower chamber elections in Mexico. Analysis uncovers systematic turnout-based bias in favor of the former hegemonic ruling party that has been offset by district geography substantively helping one or both other major parties.     

Fighting over friends and neighbors: The effect of inter-candidate geographic distance on intra-party competition

Previous studies on intra-party competition have largely neglected the role played by geographic distance between co-partisan candidates. In this study, we argue that candidates who live further away from intra-party competitors on the same party list benefit electorally from their remoteness. Moreover, we contend that the electoral effectiveness of exhibiting local personal vote attributes – a theoretically and empirically well-established candidate strategy to cultivate personal votes – also depends on the geographical proximity of localized co-partisan candidates. Using a unique and untapped dataset of more than 5,000 Finnish election candidates' home address coordinates over four consecutive parliamentary elections (1999–2011), we run beta regression models to examine the effects of candidate remoteness and nearest candidates' local characteristics on intra-party vote shares. To measure the remoteness of a particular candidate, we develop a novel index based on the distribution of co-partisans over concentric circles around that candidate. The empirical analyses show that the effect of geographic remoteness depends on local party strength and the degree of urbanization: candidates particularly benefit from more distant co-partisans in party strongholds and rural and suburban municipalities. Moreover, all models confirm that nearby located localized co-partisans decrease a candidate's own vote share. These findings have important implications for politicians' careers, party nomination strategies and future empirical research on intra-party competition.     

乡村振兴背景下农村基本公共服务与多维贫困的时空耦合特征研究

村级尺度上探索农村基本公共服务与区域贫困之间的关联特征以及二者耦合作用机理,是实现精准扶贫与乡村振兴战略有机结合的重要一环。本文分别建立农村基本公共服务和多维贫困综合发展监测模型,结合时空探索性分析和耦合协调分析方法,综合揭示两者的时空发展分布特征及其耦合关联关系。2015—2018年研究区内58个行政村的实证结果表明：①研究区内农村基本公共服务的发展呈中段高、南北段低的空间非均衡性分布,整体发展差异呈缩小趋势;②研究区内贫困村的多维贫困状况在空间分布上呈现出中北段地区贫困程度较轻、南段贫困程度较深的格局;③农村基本公共服务与多维贫困存在空间负相关性关联与明显耦合,且自实施乡村振兴战略以来,贫困村多转为同步型发展。研究结果可为现阶段乡村振兴战略的实施提供科学的决策依据和参考。     

Beyond the commodity economy: the persistence of informal economic activity in rural England

A widely held view in economic geography is that the commodity economy — in which goods and services are produced by capitalist firms for a profit under market conditions — has permeated, albeit slowly and unevenly, ever more areas of daily life. Until now, however, little evidence has been provided of the extent and unevenness of its penetration. This is the intention of this paper. First, secondary data are used to evaluate the penetration of commodification in the advanced economies. Rather than find its permeation into every crevice of daily life, a non-commodified sphere as large as the commodified sphere is identified. Reporting case study evidence on the commodification of household services in rural England, explanations are then sought for the persistence of these non-commodified spaces and the uneven penetration of commodification. This reveals that despite household services being more commodified in higher income rural areas, commodification and its uneven contours cannot be explained simply in terms of economic determinants. Although economic forces prevent the advance of commodification, especially in lower income rural areas, strong 'cultures of resistance' to the edicts of commodification also impede its deeper penetration. The paper thus concludes by outlining the roles played by both economic and cultural forces in shaping commodification and its uneven contours, as well as the need for economic geography to broaden its scope beyond the commodity economy.     

江苏省城乡公共服务区域差异的调查分析

根据江苏省样本地市的城乡公共服务水平及居民满意度调查数据,通过构建指标体系及权重,构造重要性与满意度矩阵等方法,本文从基础教育,医疗卫生,社会福利,文体服务、公共设施和生态环境及公共服务等方面对江苏省城乡公共服务水平的差异进行了分析。结果表明:江苏省城乡公共服务水平的区域差异明显,苏北地区的城乡差异较大,苏中和苏南地区较小;居民对城市公共服务满意度总体好于农村;城市与农村各类公共服务水平差距显著,尤其表现在文体服务与公共服务设施上;多数地市城乡公共服务水平协调度偏低。针对分析结果,本文提出了促进江苏省城乡公共服务协调发展的政策建议。     

江苏省城乡公共服务发展差距及其障碍因素分析

以江苏省13个省辖市为研究样本,通过构建评价教育、卫生、环境和基础设施等公共服务指标体系,运用熵值法、协调度模型和障碍度模型等方法,对江苏各省辖市的城乡公共服务发展水平进行综合评价。结果表明:①城乡公共服务发展水平区域分异明显;②不同类型公共服务发展水平城乡差距各不相同,基础教育服务城乡差距明显,医疗卫生服务乡村远落后于城市,生态环境服务城乡差距相对较小,基础设施服务城乡差距位居中等;③城乡公共服务协调发展水平可以划分为四种类型,城乡基础教育和医疗卫生等服务领域发展水平差距是影响多数省辖市城乡公共服务协调发展的最大障碍因素。     

From exchange to voice. Voting in southern Italy

The article focuses on the Italian general election held on 4 March 2018, which was notable for the surprising results in southern Italy. These results will be analysed by looking at two dimensions of electoral behaviour: on one hand, participation and volatility, on the other the success of the protest parties, the Five Star Movement (M.5.S.) and the League. These features will be considered in relation to the territorial distribution of the vote. More specifically, in the 2018 election participation was exceptionally high, especially in the south which in some regions saw electors returning to the polls. But electoral volatility is still high. Both factors affected the extraordinary success of new protest parties and collapse of the traditional parties. Traditionally in the south the vote has gone to moderate and pro-government parties, but this time in all constituencies the M.5.S., an ‘eccentric’, protest or populist party-movement, which in many cases took over 40 per cent of the votes, with a peak of 50 per cent in Campania and Sicily. Further, the wave of protest votes favoured another party with no previous support in this geographical area, the League. It may be too soon to say whether these changes in the form and dynamics of the party system are long-lasting and able to achieve a lasting change in the political spectrum, but so far the outcome of election has given a further push to the radicalization of both electoral demand and supply.