Factor Decomposition of Rural Income Inequalities in China

A Chinese geographer explores changes in inter-provincial rural income inequality in China since the late-1970s economic reforms by decomposing it into different component factors based on the Gini index (more specifically, into contributions by different income sources: wages, household operations, properties, and transfers). The influence of each factor on inequality changes is further decomposed into its structure effects and its real inequality effects. Quantitative analysis then makes it possible to determine the relative influence of each component on changes in rural provincial inequality over time.     

基于计量经济学模型的内地赴澳门游客量预测

本研究选择中国大陆地区人均可支配收入、消费者物价指数、国内生产总值,以及澳门与大陆之间商品进出口总额、港币与人民币汇率等变量,建立计量经济学模型估计内地赴澳门游客的数量。模型数据来源于澳门、大陆和香港官方公布的历年季度数据。在建立公式化的预测模型之后,本文还对模型的拟合优度和预测精度给予评估,对模型的基本假设进行了检验。本研究成果可作为有关政府部门和企业的决策参考。     

基于不同区划系统的中国区域经济差异分解研究

基于不同区划系统,采用锡尔系数分解方法来定量测度中国区域经济差异。首先,基于省级空间单元,通过一阶段锡尔系数分析1978年以来中国区域差异的格局及其动态演变;然后,分别基于三大地带--省(直辖市、自治区)--地(市、区、自治州)或者县(市辖区、县级市、县)这两类三级结构的地域行政单元,运用二阶段嵌套锡尔系数分解方法,将差异进一步分解至省内差异水平上,由此揭示出不同于省际分析的区域经济差异特征:省内差异是全国总体差异的重要组分,对于总体差异的影响较地带间差异和省间差异显著得多。     

沉没成本、制度环境与企业出口地理动态

本文使用2002-2011年中国海关出口数据,探究成本视角下企业出口地理动态和作用机制。实证结果表明企业出口活动和邻近企业溢出均对企业在出口市场上的进入和退出存在显著双面性影响：企业出口活动不利于企业进入新市场,但利于企业继续留在国外已有市场中;邻近企业溢出为企业进入新市场创造了有利条件,但加快了企业从已有市场退出。本文还发现在市场化程度较低和政府干预程度较高的地区,企业出口活动和邻近企业溢出发挥的“双面性”影响明显。这意味地方制度环境能影响中国企业出口地理动态,塑造了企业出口的动机和策略。     

Migration and regional inequality: changing characteristics of China’s economic inequality

Scholars studying economic inequality in China have maintained that regional inequality and economic divergence across provinces have steadily increased over the past 30 years. New studies have shown that this trend is a statistical aberration; calculations show that instead of quickly and sharply rising, regional inequality has actually decreased, and most recently, remained stable. Our study suggests that China’s unique migratory regime is crucial to understanding these findings. We conduct a counterfactual simulation to demonstrate how migration and remittances have mitigated income inequality across provinces in order to show that without these processes, we would have seen more of a rise in interprovincial income inequality. We conclude by arguing that inequality in China is still increasing, but it is changing and becoming less place-based. As regional inequality decreases, there are signs that point to the increasing importance of interpersonal inequality.     

中国电子机械制造业出口产品贸易网络研究——基于产品内分工与贸易视角

在区分中间/最终产品、一般/加工贸易后，描述了中国电子机械制造业出口产品贸易网络，并探讨了出口经验和产品关联如何影响企业进入网络从事出口和拓展优势贸易伙伴。结果表明：①出口地、目的国、出口地-目的国维度出口经验和产品关联可以显著地促进4种电子机械制造业产品企业进入特定贸易网络进行出口。②在位出口企业扩展优势伙伴方面，出口地-目的国维度出口经验对4种企业均有促进作用；目的国出口经验、出口地产品关联的促进作用集中在中间产品企业；出口地出口经验则集中在一般贸易企业。     

SOCIAL POLICY AS REGIONAL POLICY: MARKET AND NONMARKET FACTORS DETERMINING REGIONAL INEQUALITY

ABSTRACT We decompose the recent changes in regional inequality in Brazil into its components, highlighting the role of spatially blind social programs. We aggregate personal income micro data to the state level, differentiating nine income sources, and assess the role of these components in the observed changes in regional inequality indicators. The main results indicate that the largest part of the recent reduction in regional inequality is related to the dynamics of the market‐related labor income, with manufacturing and services favoring deconcentration. Labor income in agriculture, retirement and pensions, and property rents and other sources favored concentration. The social programs Bolsa Família and Benefícios de Prestação Continuada are responsible for more than 24 percent of the reduction in inequality, although they account for less than 1.7 percent of the disposable household income. Such positive impact on regional concentration is impressive, since the goals of the programs are clearly nonspatial.     

A Flexible Mathematical Programming Model to Estimate Interregional Input–Output Accounts*

Abstract. This study implements and tests a mathematical programming model to estimate interregional, interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions based on an interregional accounting framework and initial information of interregional shipments. A national input–output (IO) table, regional data on gross output, value‐added, exports, imports, and final demand at sector level are used as inputs to generate an interregional IO account that reconciles regional economic statistics and interregional transaction data. The model is tested using data from a multiregional global IO database and shows remarkable capacity to discover true interregional trade patterns from highly distorted initial estimates.     

PROSPECTS FOR SOVIET GAS EXPORTS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS

This paper assesses the prospects for Soviet gas exports to Western Europe, analyzing both supply (domestic) factors, such as gas production, consumption, and transportation, and demand (foreign) factors such as gas demand and market share. This is done using a network allocation model of the Soviet gas pipeline network (for 1985, 1990, and 1995) and a country-by-country analysis of the gas market in Western Europe. In general, the outlook for increased gas exports to Western Europe, at least to the turn of the century, is rather bleak. This is mainly due to a relatively slower rate of growth of gas demand in Western Europe than projected earlier, coupled with overcontracting of gas supplies, because the USSR has enormous gas reserves, ample production, and no major pipeline bottlenecks restricting export volumes. Its huge pipeline construction program allows both domestic consumption and exports to be comfortably accommodated     

20世纪30年代中国农业雇工收入地区差异研究

本文采用卜凯1929—1933年所做的中国农村调查数据,用基尼系数法计算了我国不同地区农业雇工平均收入水平及差距,并采用非参数的高斯核密度估计方法分析农业雇工收入分布情况及影响机制。研究表明:20世纪30年代农业雇工收入水平地区差异性客观存在但并未出现两极分化;农业雇工平均收入水平按地区发展状况呈阶梯状递减趋势,地区内部农业雇工收入差距与地区经济发达水平大体呈正U型发展态势;东、中、西部地区之间发展的不均衡性是导致全国农业雇工收入差距较大的重要因素。     

基于齐夫法则的江苏省旅游收入规模结构变化研究

借用齐夫法则研究了江苏省近10年的旅游收入规模结构变化,并与差异度变化加以对比。结果显示无论是国内旅游收入还是国际旅游收入,规模分布均基本遵循齐夫定律,与差异度变化趋势也相一致;无标度区范围均呈扩大趋势,规模结构逐步得到优化。但两者也有不同点:(1)前者从局部单分形演变为几乎覆盖全域的单分形,而后者则从局部单分形→几乎覆盖全域的单分形→局部单分形→双分形;(2)前者是先呈帕雷托模式后呈不规则的帕雷托模式,而后者则是前几年呈不规则的帕雷托模式,后几年标度区一呈对数正态分布模式,标度区二呈不规则的帕雷托模式;(3)前者的规模变差是先扩大后缩小,而后者则是前几年规模变差略有波动,后几年两个标度区之间的差距稍有扩大,但各标度区内部的规模变差却呈缩小趋势。齐夫法则可为分析旅游收入规模结构变化提供新的定量方法。     

Residential property disparities in city districts in Prague,Czech Republic

City districts are often classified as ‘rich’ or ‘poor,’ a phenomenon that occurs within cities all over the world. While income inequality, wealth inequality, and other kinds of social inequality are frequently tracked, there is a surprising lack of research concentrating on how social inequality manifests as differences between parts of cities, especially outside of the U.S. That is mostly due to insufficient available data. In this paper, we propose a methodology for measuring the relative inequality between city districts by using the average prices of residential properties in various parts of the city, and assessing their relative difference. This approach has several advantages, as property listings are often readily available even in cities where income data is not. This methodology has potential for measuring developments in inequality in a much wider range of cities. As a proof of concept, we apply this methodology to property prices in Prague during the period 2003–2012 to identify a trend of either growing or decreasing inequality among individual parts of the city. We have found that during this period the disparity has grown only 5.97%, which means the overall growth of disparity between the city districts was negligible.     

China’s Information and Communication Technology in Geographic Perspective

Two economic geographers analyze the unprecedented growth of China’s information and communication technology (ICT) industry over the past decade (2000–2010)—an industry increasingly important as a new engine powering exports and providing infrastructure and services critical to sustaining economic growth. Using agglomeration and inequality indices including the Herfindahl and the Gini, the authors show that the geographic concentration of ICT activities has decreased over time, in tandem with a decline in their regional inequality; however, a new ICT development index (IDI) designed for this study reveals a significant and persistent gap in ICT development between the country’s advancing and lagging provinces. The paper also explores a range of factors contributing to “leapfrog” ICT growth in some provinces, as well as the challenges likely to be faced by the industry in the future. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L630, L960, O180, O330. 2 figures, 4 tables, 85 references, 1 appendix.     

抗战时期西北皮毛贸易与大后方经济变动

皮毛是西北地区重要的畜牧产品。近代以来,随着天津的开埠通商,在天津口岸的经济辐射作用下,大量西北皮毛通过黄河水运汇集至包头后再通过平绥铁路运至天津出口美英等国,皮毛成为西北最重要的出口物资,大量西北皮毛的出口也成为西北地区皮毛业外向化的重要表现。但抗战爆发以后,西北皮毛贸易发生了巨大变化。首先,西北皮毛出口运输路线改为向西汇集兰州后再通过甘新公路或甘新大道运至猩猩峡出口苏联,使得苏联取代战前美国成为中国最大皮毛进口国,这也直接推动了战时中苏易货贸易的发展。其次,由于战时西北皮毛出口运输较战前出口运输路途艰险,加上战时出口市场萎缩等原因,造成战时西北皮毛出口量较战前减少。战时西北皮毛出口量的减少,迫使部分皮毛出口转内销,西北皮毛业从战前外向化开始转为战时内向化。西北皮毛内销数量的增加,也推动了大后方毛纺织业的发展。因此,战时西北皮毛业的内向化一定程度上为战时大后方经济的发展积累了新的动力因素。     

Laboratories of (In)equality? Redistributive Policy and Income Inequality in the American States

Prior literature has emphasized demographic, economic, and political explanations for increasing income inequality in the United States, with little attention paid to the role of state‐level policy. This is despite great variation across states in both the level of inequality and the rate at which it is rising. This paper asks whether differences in state policy choices can help explain this variation; specifically, we examined a range of state redistributive policies enacted between 1980 and 2005 and identified four common approaches likely to impact inequality: taxes on the wealthy, taxes on the poor, spending on the poor, and labor market policies. We used pooled cross‐sectional time‐series data and a fixed‐effects model to assess the relationship between states’ use of each policy approach and two measures of market income inequality: the Gini coefficient and the income share of the top 1 percent. We find policies played a significant role in shaping income inequality in the states. For three of these four policy approaches, we found less inequality following expansions of state redistributive policy. Yet, for another, we identified the opposite pattern. These findings highlight the importance of state policy choices in shaping market inequality, and have implications for designing state policies to reduce income inequality since the success of these efforts depends on the policy approach used to redistribute income and wealth.     

近代中国农村收入分配与消费差异研究

本文首先计算了近代中国农村收入的宏观基尼系数;之后通过作为农村最高收入阶层的城居地主和最低收入阶层的雇农,具体分析近代中国农村收入分配差距及其变动趋势;最后通过恩格尔系数比较了近代农家不同收入群体的消费水平差异,以印证对农村收入差距状况的估计。三种方法的结论均表明,近代中国农村各阶层间的收入分配差距并没有高到悬殊的程度,也没有出现恶化的趋势,农村不同收入阶层间的恩格尔系数差距也不很大。     

新时期国内旅游抗周期性及双对数需求弹性分析

2000年以来,我国人均收入超过1000美元,国内旅游进入快速增长期,呈现抗周期性的新特征。本文在形态指标分析的基础上,界定了旅游业抗周期的概念及两种表现形式。相关统计数据实证检验发现,2003年SARS危机后,2004年国内旅游强力反弹,2009年国民经济进入低谷期后国内旅游率先恢复,形成一种受短期波动影响较小的惯性增长。同时,本文依据1994年～2012年时间序列数据建立了双对数模型,分析全国及城市居民国内旅游收入弹性和价格弹性,结果显示,收入需求弹性大于价格需求弹性,收入增长对居民国内旅游的推动作用大于价格的限制,形成了“刚性”的旅游需求,这是新时期国内旅游迅猛增长及抗周期性形成的根本原因。     

MODELING DYNAMIC INTERINDUSTRY REGIONAL GROWTH IN THE PRESENCE OF STRUCTURAL SHIFTS AND OUTLIERS*

ABSTRACT. Kraybill and Dorfman (1992) propose a model of intermediate and export demand which uses ordinary least-squares and linear systems techniques to produce a state-space representation of the time element of output change. Their model produces dynamic multipliers which trace the temporal path of regional growth, and has many advantages over previously employed time series methods. This study extends their methodology to accommodate structural shifts and outliers found in the least-squares relationship between industry and export output by using a recently-introduced technique–multiprocess mixture estimation. An application of the Kraybill-Dorfman method and the extensions proposed here to monthly time series data on Ohio employment is used to illustrate these issues.     

An Assessment of the Causal Relationship between Growth and Inequality in Spanish Regions

This paper analyses the causal relationship between economic growth and income inequality in Spanish regions from 1970 to 2000. We examine such a relationship using a panel of data with four time observations on the level variables for each region. Thus, we use a modified form of traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short times series that are available. Applying a sum–difference test, we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth in Spanish regions leads to less income inequality, rather than any other possible causal relationship.     

The Structure of Russian Industrial Exports in Comparative Perspective

A British economist presents a comparative study focused on the change in the technological structure of Russia's high- and medium-technology industrial exports. The export profiles of 19 countries in the post-communist region, including the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are compared with those of China, India, Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia. Classifying 260 export activities for each of the 24 countries according to the level of technology intensity required in production, the author measures change in export structures by employing the Krugman Specialization Index and the Balassa Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage. The results of measures are followed by a discussion of implications for the future development of high-tech industries and higher value-added exports in Russia. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F14, O11, O30, P50. 4 figures, 2 tables, 36 references.