The Net Effects of Large Plant Locations and Expansions on County Employment*

This paper argues that the net economic impact of new firm locations or expansions is determined by a multitude of opposing forces. Using a unique database, I set out to evaluate the net effects of these opposing forces by looking at the net change in local employment and population arising from large (greater than 300 new jobs) firm locations or expansions in the State of Georgia. The analysis suggests that the employment multipliers associated with new firm locations are much less than one; that is, the net employment effect of a large firm opening is smaller than the gross employment impact. This result is consistent with other empirical economic impact studies, which find multipliers much smaller than those of typical input–output models, often less than unity, and a previous study showing little net effect of large plant openings. Expansions of existing establishments are shown to have substantial multiplicative effects, however, with an average employment multiplier of 2.0. I discuss possible reasons for differential impacts across new and expanding firms, focusing on the nature of the firms. Differences in net impact across industries and high‐tech versus low‐tech firms also is evaluated. I find that the impact of large firm locations or expansions on population in the resident county generally is negative, but positive for the broader region encompassing the county of location and its contiguous neighbors.     

DO LOCATION‐BASED TAX INCENTIVES ATTRACT NEW BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENTS?*

ABSTRACT This paper examines how offering tax incentives in a local area affects the entry of new business establishments. We use the federal Empowerment Zone (EZ) program as a natural experiment to test this relationship. Using instrumental variables estimation, we find that the EZ wage tax credit is responsible for attracting about 2.2 new establishments per 1,000 existing establishments, or a total of 20 new establishments in EZ areas. New establishment growth is strongest in the retail (about 40 new establishments) and service (about five new establishments) sectors, and offset by declines or slower growth in other industries.     

SPATIAL IMPACTS OF AGGLOMERATION EXTERNALITIES*

ABSTRACT This article examines the extent to which agglomeration economies in one location affect employment growth and establishment births, using data from the Dutch province of South‐Holland. The data are of particular interest because they represent a census, rather than a sample, of all establishments and the location of establishments can be pinpointed to within 416 (postal) zip code areas averaging less than 6 km² in size. Results suggest that agglomeration economies positively affect employment growth and the location of new establishments, but with the possible exception of manufacturing, this effect dies out quickly with distance. Thus, the main finding is that for many industries, agglomerative forces may well operate at a geographic scale that is smaller than a city.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ESTABLISHMENT AGE DISTRIBUTION AND URBAN GROWTH*

ABSTRACT This paper explores the relationship between urban growth and establishment‐level dynamics through geographic variations in the establishment age distribution. Using administrative microdata, I find that faster growing cities have higher rates of entry and exit, and younger establishments, on average. The resulting differences in the age distribution account for 38 percent of the variation in MSA employment growth, leaving the majority due to differences among establishments of the same age. In particular, entry and the growth and survival of young establishments (aged five years or less) account for the majority of the variation in MSA growth.     

THE IMPACT OF SPECIFIC-SECTOR CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE AND MIGRATION

ABSTRACT.  It is common in empirical regional economics to use total employment as an explanatory variable while investigating issues such as the level and distribution of income and migration. This paper argues that sector-specific changes in employment and labor market performance can have different effects on economic growth, the collection of tax revenue, migration, and the level and distribution of household income. As such, it is important to model sectors separately. We find that expansions in employment opportunities for a high-wage sector such as computer manufacturing or bioengineering, a medium-wage sector manufacturing, and the lower-wage sector of retailing have differing economic consequences for a small city. We use a data intensive computable general equilibrium model to obtain these results.     

Explaining Congressional Staff Members’ Decisions to Leave the Hill

The high turnover of congressional staff members can have a negative effect on the functioning of Congress as an institution. Though junior staff turnover is not considered a significant concern, the high turnover of senior staff members is problematic. Using data from a survey of staff members located in the Washington personal offices of House of Representatives members, this article investigates what factors influence the likelihood to leave congressional employment. Specifically, I explore how solidary, purposive, and material work incentives influence staff members’ plans to exit. The results of two different models—one for junior and mid-level staff members and one for executive staff members—indicate that purposive incentives, and material incentives that accrue for future employment opportunities, carry the most weight across both models. Current salary has a significant effect on executive staff members, but not on their lower-level counterparts. Following this analysis, I propose actions that congressional offices might take to retain staff.     

A socioeconomic impact assessment of three Italian national parks

The expansion of protected areas (PAs) is feared to negatively affect the local economy, as every PA, albeit to different degrees, entails restriction to the economic activities. The literature on the topic has started assessing what is the socioeconomic impact of PAs, mostly focusing on the Global South. The objective of this article is the analysis of the socioeconomic impact of three Italian national parks (NPs), established in the 2000s, using a counterfactual approach based on both the outcome regression diff-in-diff and the doubly robust diff-in-diff combined with different propensity score-based and Mahalanobis distance matching procedures. We find that the three Italian NPs have a robust and statistically significant impact on average income of residents in municipalities hosting them. Conversely, there is weak evidence that population and local establishments are positively affected, and touristic local establishments and employment are negatively affected by the three NPs. All together the results indicate that the three NPs have no negative effect on the socioeconomic dynamics of the territories impacted, although additional investigations are required to shed lights to the impact mechanisms.     

CHANGES IN THE LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT AND OWNERSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM CALIFORNIA*

ABSTRACT We use the National Establishment Time‐Series database to describe shifts in the geographic dispersion of employment and ownership of firms. Focusing on data on business establishments in California, and establishments anywhere in the United States that are owned by firms headquartered in California, we find shifts in the operations of businesses headquartered in California to other states. However, this shift has been offset by increased employment in the state by firms headquartered elsewhere, resulting in California's share of national employment holding quite constant. The evidence points to increasing geographic dispersion of firms' operations, especially in industries with lower communication costs.     

Workers’ Compensation and State Employment Growth*

Abstract. Workers’ compensation reforms have been on the table in virtually every state over the last several years, and many states have launched comprehensive reforms. At least nine states undertook major reforms of their workers’ compensation systems in 2004 alone, and the reforms were driven largely by claims that higher workers’ compensation costs are driving away businesses and the employment that comes with them. This paper examines the relationship between workers’ compensation costs, as proxied by benefits/earnings, and employment across U.S. states and the District of Columbia from 1976 to 2000. Workers’ compensation costs are found to have a statistically significant negative impact on employment and wages, but the elasticities are very small, suggesting that workers’ compensation is not a likely cause of jobs woes in most states. Unemployment insurance appears to have an effect of similar magnitude. Medical cost inflation is found to be a significant factor in explaining movements in workers’ compensation costs over time.     

Contextualizing Welfare's Work Disincentive: The Case of Female-headed Family Poverty

The conventional model of the relationship between welfare incentives and poverty rates holds that welfare payments produce an income-enhancement effect that removes families from poverty until some threshold. Beyond this point increased payments engender a work-disincentive effect resulting in increased rates of poverty. We challenge the model's assumption that poverty levels are a simple and spatially invariant response to welfare incentives, contending instead that local employment conditions may substantially alter the relation. Our reformulation of the conventional modeling approach is based on the expansion method. Specifically, we extend the model to include the effects of local labor-market conditions on the response of poverty levels to welfare incentives. In contesting the invariance assumption, the expansion method allows us to determine where and in what contexts welfare is “work discouraging.” The empirical analysis, which is undertaken at the county level, indicates that welfare payments vary in their influence on poverty rates across different employment contexts. A national map portraying this parameter instability demonstrates that female-family poverty rates are most responsive to welfare assistance in the rural South and least responsive in the metropolitan Northeast. Finally, we examine two sharply contrasting locales to illustrate how poverty is governed by specific employment and welfare characteristics.     

IMMIGRATION AND FIRM EXPANSION*

ABSTRACT Research generally focuses on how immigration affects native workers, while the impact of immigration on domestic firms is often overlooked. This paper addresses this important omission by examining whether firms respond to immigration by expanding their production activities within a city in order to utilize the abundant supply of low‐skilled workers. Using data on immigration and the universe of establishments in U.S. cities, the results indicate that firms respond to immigration at the extensive margin by increasing the number of establishments. Not surprisingly, immigration has a more positive impact on the number of establishments that are small in size and in relatively mobile, low‐skill intensive industries. Additional evidence indicates that immigration has little impact on employment within existing establishments, the intensive margin, or on the number of establishments in service industries which may expand simply due to immigrant consumption.     

Industry Characteristics Linked to Establishment Concentrations in Nonmetropolitan Areas

In this paper we investigate industry characteristics associated with the clustering of establishments in three-digit SIC manufacturing industries in nonmetropolitan areas. The dispersion parameter k of the negative binomial distribution is selected as the measure of industry spatial concentration. Associations between industry characteristics and spatial concentration are investigated using OLS regression analysis. Our findings indicate that the spatial clustering of establishments is positively related to industry average establishment size, reliance on natural resource inputs, labor intensity, cost shares of professional and technical employees, and cost shares of low-skilled workers. Agglomeration is negatively related to multiplant structure, employment in precision production, and reliance on local product and input markets.     

The spatial dimension of internal labor markets

We integrate into a unified framework the spatial and the employment dimensions of worker mobility, tracing workers across firms, across establishments, and across regions. Drawing upon the spatial dimension of internal labor markets in firms with multiple establishments in multiple locations, our results indicate that the contemporaneous wage premium to migration is around 3 percentage points. For the case of job switchers, we find that the return to regional migration is due to access to better jobs at the destination. We also document the existence of an urban premium for same‐employer migrants but for employer changes this premium is driven by selection.     

Tourism as a vehicle for regional development in peripheral areas – myth or reality? A longitudinal case study of Swedish regions

In the contemporary so-called ‘competition state era’, many rural and peripheral regions are in decline. Tourism is increasingly viewed as being able to alleviate and rejuvenate regions that are facing economic difficulties. The European Union has launched several programmes with the goal of stimulating growth and employment in peripheral areas. These programmes are often used to support tourism development projects. In this paper, a longitudinal analysis of spatial changes in Swedish tourism is conducted. The analysis is based on statistics regarding overnight stays in Swedish commercial accommodation facilities. The aim is to investigate if tourism and tourism policy contribute to the reduction in disparities between regions. Although there are exceptions, the main findings indicate that the potential for creating sustainable rural tourism growth through tourism policy seems to be much less than the popular discourse suggests.     

TECHNOLOGICAL CATCH‐UP AND GEOGRAPHIC PROXIMITY*

ABSTRACT This paper examines productivity catch‐up as a source of establishment productivity growth. We present evidence that, other things equal, establishments further behind the industry frontier experience faster rates of productivity growth. Geographic proximity to frontier firms makes catch‐up faster. Our econometric specification implies a long‐run relationship between productivity levels, where nonfrontier establishments lie a steady‐state distance behind the frontier such that their rate of productivity growth including catch‐up equals productivity growth at the frontier. We use our econometric estimates to quantify the implied contribution to productivity growth of catch‐up to both the national and regional productivity frontiers.     

邮轮旅游供应链的旅行社激励机制研究:组织游客奖励还是营销推广扶持?

考虑到旅行社在我国邮轮旅游销售供应链中的重要性,邮轮港口所在地政府为推进邮轮旅游产业发展,普遍对旅行社实施两种激励政策——组织游客奖励与营销推广扶持。但两类激励政策对当地政府、邮轮公司及旅行社的效益影响尚不明确。本文首先建立“政府-邮轮公司-旅行社”三阶段主从博弈模型,以研究两种激励政策对两企业运营决策的作用机理,并给出政府在最大化市场需求目标下的最优激励政策。其次,借助数值仿真实验分析了不同情形下基于最优激励政策时市场需求和企业利润的变化。结果表明:站在政府角度,激励政策有两种选择——仅采取营销推广激励或者两种激励方式并存,而且最优激励设计受到补贴预算、旅行社营销推广能力及其岸上游收益的影响。站在旅行社角度,作为激励政策的直接受益方,其定价与营销努力决策会受到两类激励方式的不同影响;而对于营销推广能力较强的旅行社,可以依赖于政府奖励适当提高船票价格,以改善当前国内邮轮市场的低价竞争。站在邮轮公司角度,即使自身没有直接得到激励资金,其仍能间接获得激励政策所带来的红利。研究结论可为政府的邮轮旅游激励政策的设计提供理论参考,并为邮轮公司与旅行社在面对政府财政干预时提供决策建议。     

Natural disasters and relief assistance: Empirical evidence on the resilience of U.S. counties using dynamic propensity score matching

This paper utilizes a novel dynamic propensity score matching approach for multiple cohorts of U.S. counties between 1989 and 1999 to examine local economy resilience to rare natural disasters. Affected counties are sorted based on disaster intensity and are carefully matched to similar counties that did not experience a disaster. A difference‐in‐difference estimator compares trends of affected counties’ postdisaster business establishments, employment, and payroll to counterfactual trends in the matched counties. All affected counties experienced short‐run drops in economic activity that was particularly noticeable in higher‐intensity disasters. In the longer run, less distressed counties returned to their estimated counterfactual trends, but counties with lower predisaster socioeconomic conditions still lagged in growth, particularly in cases of lower‐intensity disasters. Policymakers can use this information to better prepare responses to future disasters.     

Continental excursion, 1928, of the Glasgow university school of geography

An assessment is made of developments in agriculture and fish farming within the Integrated Development Programme (I.D.P.) for the Western Isles. The five‐year I.D.P., which was launched in 1982, was partly funded by the E.E.C. The extent of investment in agriculture and fish farming is reviewed. The growth of employment and output in fish farming is reported, and various agricultural indicators such as trends in livestock numbers and performance are assessed. Various conclusions and lessons that can be drawn from the experience of the Western Isles I.D.P. are discussed. The paper is a summary of a detailed assessment recently carried out by the author for the Highlands and Islands Development Board.     

The determinants of county growth

The determinants of population and employment growth were explored from a broader interregional (as opposed to intraregional) perspective. Data for the 1970s, at the county level of disaggregation, were used to analyze the effects of economic, demographic, and climatic variables on population and employment growth in a simultaneous equation framework. The use of data from the more than 3000 US counties provides a considerably larger testing ground than those used in previous research. The point of departure was a conventional, general equilibrium model in which both households and producers are geographically mobile. The study's dependent variables refer to population, total, and manufacturing employment densities. Family income had a powerful effect in stimulating both population and employment density. A 10% increase in family income led to a 7.9% increase in total and a 9.2% increase in manufacturing employment densities. High family income must stand for high demand, and thus, firms are drawn to an area. High family income also drew households to an area. A 10% increase in family income led to a 5.5% increase in population density. High family income must represent "good" neighborhoods for households. High family income was positively correlated with population and employment density, but in other recent studies either a negative and significant relationship or an insignificant relationship were reported. Local taxes consist of the receipts of county government and those of municipalities, townships, school districts, and special districts within the county. The elasticities reported in Table 4 suggest that a 10% increase in such taxes resulted in about a 0.072% reduction in county population density during the decade. The Industrial Revenue Bonds (IRBs) and the percent of the labor force that is unionized are 2 potential policy instruments at the state level. The study results suggest that IRBs have not stimulated either manufacturing or total employment, and the coefficients were statistically insignificant in the structural equations. The elasticities imply that a 10% increase in percent union reduces total employment by 0.42% and manufacturing employment by 0.18%. The effect on population was tiny. Further, while not intended, the interstate highway program may have been a significant redistributor of population and employment but has not caused immigration of people and jobs from central cities.