FIRE IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON: A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODEL FOR POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT.  This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farm-gate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of field management and deforestation fires to simulate the impact of road-paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.     

ANALYZING POLICY IMPACT: SELECTION OF A LINEAR TREND MODEL

Policy analysts, as well as politicians, have shown great interest in assessing both short-term and long-term consequences of public policies in recent years. Recent time-trend studies have attempted to depict the time dimension of policy consequences through extensions of regression techniques. This study examines three linear trend models which have been used to depict policy impact through time-series analyses, and identifies the relative advantages and disadvantages associated with the use of each model. The three models are applied in a quasi-experimental time-series design to time-series of per capita state expenditures for large cities, in eight states, over a twenty-year period. Differences in degrees of multicollinearity and autocorrelation inherent in the three models are discussed, and the model providing the most conservative coefficient estimates is identified.     

CARTER AND HUMAN RIGHTS: ADMINISTRATIVE IMPACT OF A SYMBOLIC POLICY

Analyses of foreign policy impact seldom take into account the domestic and symbolic consequences of implementation. This study begins with the assumption that since President Carter's human rights policy is largely an exercise in symbolic politics, the criteria for understanding its impact have more to do with the impression than with substantive improvement in human rights. Implementation to date has been felt primarily in administrative adjustments and revisions, not on concrete achievements in human rights around the world. While in terms of substantive criteria the impact of the policy has been minimal, in terms of increased bureaucratic visibility and other symbolic responses, the policy's implementation can be considered successful.     

THE ASSUMPTIONS OF POLICY ANALYSIS

The preconditions of policy making are a concern in a human mind about some situation, actual or hypothetical, which is perceived as important and the conceived possibility that human action could make it better. Perceptions of the situation and of its origins and of the scope if any for acting on it and the actions conceived as available vary immensely with the culture of the society involved; and they change with time. This theme is illustrated by a brief summary of British political and cultural responses to poverty and to unemployment in the last hundred years.     

COMPARATIVE REGIONAL POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS: EX POST EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE EUROPEAN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND*

ABSTRACT. This paper addresses the issue of ex post impact analysis of regional policies in the European Community. The analysis is both methodological and applied in nature. After a concise overview of existing impact assessment methods, a two-step approach by means of an exploratory frequency method and an explanatory rational expectations-based model is proposed in order to provide an empirical framework for cross-regional comparative evaluation of the performance of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The seope and applicability of the method is illustrated by means of a case study for Dutch regions.     

入境旅游免签政策的游客吸引效应及其异质性

本文以中国首个入境旅游免签试点政策为准自然实验,以1996-2016年53个地级市为研究样本,采用双重差分法评估了入境旅游免签政策对入境旅游人数的影响,并进行一系列稳健性检验,最后从客源地异质性和政策调整效应等维度做了进一步分析。研究发现：①入境旅游免签政策的实施显著地促进了入境旅游人数增长;②入境旅游免签政策对欧洲国家的政策效果最好,对亚洲国家和大洋洲国家有显著的正向影响,而对北美洲国家无显著作用;③2010年入境旅游免签政策的调整未能显著吸引入境游客。     

TOWARD A POST-POSITIVIST POLICY ANALYSIS

Book reviewed in this article
Paul Diesing, Science and Ideology in the Policy Sciences
Daniel Callahan and Bruce Jennings, Ethics, The Social Sciences, and Policy Analysis
Frank Fischer, Polities, Values, and Public Policy: The Problem of Methodology