KNOWLEDGE MATTERS: THE LONG‐RUN DETERMINANTS OF STATE INCOME GROWTH*

ABSTRACT State per capita income differences narrowed considerably between 1939 and 1976. However, this convergence has been incomplete. We examined the sources of relative per capita income growth using an augmented growth model and a panel of the 48 contiguous states from 1939 to 2004. We explored the effect of tax burdens, public infrastructure, size of private financial markets, rates of business failure, industry structure, climate, educational attainment, and technology production. Our results show that a state's technology and its college attainment rates are the main factors that allow some state's per capita income to remain above those of other states.     

延安市农民收入可持续增长机制探析

近年来,延安市农民人均纯收入一直低于全国平均水平,城乡居民收入差距也不断扩大。为改变这一局面,延安市政府实施了生态移民工程,进行了农业产业结构调整。这些措施在一定程度上改善了农民的生活水平,但是,制约农民收入增长的根本性障碍仍然存在。只有促进高附加值农业的可持续发展、鼓励农村剩余劳动力的外出就业和使农村非农产业实现较快发展,才能建立起农民收入的可持续增长机制。     

Regional Inequality in the EU: How to Finance Greater Cohesion

After outlining the overall scale and evolution of European Union (EU) public expenditure, this paper examines the mechanisms driving the allocation of Cohesion Policy resources. The analysis reveals the extent to which the outcome of the policy's principle- and formula-driven allocation mechanisms is modified by precedent and politico-economic considerations. In particular it shows that the consequent per capita final financial allocations (the intensity of aid) are greatest not for the poorest areas: up to 84% of EU GDP per head, aid increases as income increases. The analysis also emphasizes the on–off nature of the EU policy. In the light of these results a series of simulations are carried out. Attention is given first to a more economically sensitive treatment of transition regions, whose relative growth results in shifts from one category to another and to a mechanism capable of providing differentiated support to all disadvantaged regional economies. Attention is then given to ways of ensuring that final allocations are inversely proportional to income, and that most aid is concentrated on the most disadvantaged areas (Section 5). In the conclusions attention is paid to guidelines which might apply to the reform of the EU Cohesion Policy.     

PRODUCTIVITY AND THE DENSITY OF HUMAN CAPITAL*

ABSTRACT We estimate a model of urban productivity in which the agglomeration effect of density is enhanced by a metropolitan area's stock of human capital. Estimation accounts for potential biases due to the endogeneity of density and industrial composition effects. Using new information on output per worker for U.S. metropolitan areas along with a measure of density that accounts for the spatial distribution of population, we find that a doubling of density increases productivity by 2–4 percent. Consistent with theories of learning and knowledge spillovers in cities, we demonstrate that the elasticity of average labor productivity with respect to density increases with human capital. Metropolitan areas with a human capital stock one standard deviation below the mean realize no productivity gain, while doubling density in metropolitan areas with a human capital stock one standard deviation above the mean yields productivity benefits that are about twice the average. These patterns are particularly pronounced in industries where the exchange of information and sharing of ideas are important parts of the production process.     

THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF EAST SIBERIA AND PROBLEMS OF PREDICTION

A review of population trends in the USSR and in East Siberia suggests that net in-migration will become a negligible source of labor over the next 25 years until the year 2000 because past labor surpluses no longer exist in the western regions of the Soviet Union and because living conditions in the eastern regions are inferior to conditions in the west. East Siberia will therefore have to depend increasingly on the regional rate of natural increase. The region's population is expected to grow from 8 million in 1970 to 10–12 million by the year 2000. The slow predicted growth of population is not expected to become a constraint on the region's economic development because of rising labor productivity and a regional emphasis on energy-intensive and raw-material-oriented industries rather than labor-intensive activities.     

THE CAUSES OF THE ASIAN FERTILITY DECLINE

The Asian demographic transition is treated as one aspect of the global Industrial Revolution, which started in the West but now involves the whole world. In fact, the multiplication of per capita income in Asia in the second half of the twentieth century has been the world's fastest. With the rise in female education, urban living and non-agricultural employment, as well as the mortality decline that began early in the twentieth century and government family planning programmes, fertility fell nearly everywhere from the 1960s presaging below-replacement fertility levels. The continent's macro changes are outlined and micro studies of the causes of fertility decline and the delay or forgoing of marriage are drawn from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand and South Korea. It is concluded that marriages will be increasingly forgone or delayed and that most, perhaps all, ESCAP Asia will this century experience below-replacement fertility. The path followed is much more likely to resemble that of Mediterranean Europe than Northern Europe.     

A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF FARM OUTPUT IN SELECTED LAND-REFORM AREAS OF JAMAICA

The claim of many that certain features of Jamaican land reform discourage optimum increases in farm output has been pointed out. To test the argument, seven land-reform features, which meet methodological, theoretical, and practical restrictions, have been examined. An hypothesis derived mainly from agricultural- economic theory about the linear relation between each of the seven features and farm output per acre has been devised. The hypotheses have been tested with a multiple regression analysis of data from six land settlements selected to represent a variety of geographic settings. The hypotheses have been partially upheld, but must be revised in the following form: (1) in many cases, particularly in the early years of production, farm acreage is negatively related to output per acre; (2) in subsistence areas, where great diversity in agriculture is common, greater diversification leads to greater output per acre; (3) in most cases where farmers live an appreciable distance from their holdings (at least 0.3 miles), output per acre is negatively related to the distance; (4) output per acre declines as the age of operator increases, but only if the operator is mainly dependent on his own labour, and only after a relatively advanced age (60 years, perhaps) has been attained; (5) the number of a farmer's dependents does not affect output (gross income per acre); (6) a farmer's non-farm income does not exhibit a negative relation to output per acre, and may be positively related if the outside income can be used to purchase productive farm inputs; (7) in some cases acreage of additional land used is positively related to output per acre on settlement properties. Hopefully, further research will lead to a more rational basis for the formulation of these hypotheses. Using the regression equations, estimates have been made of the changes in output per acre which could have been achieved with feasible changes in relevant factors. Estimates indicate that current farm output could have been greatly increased in some settlements, thus justifying some of the criticism of Jamaican land reform.     

LOCATIONAL FACTORS IN THE DECLINING INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE OF THE NEW YORK URBAN REGION*

This paper investigates the locational factors that contributed to the decline of the New York urban region's industries during 1972-1975. Based on the static concept of a specialization index, a dynamic comparative advantage index is constructed. A model is then formulated to test the hypothesis that regional competitive advantage (vis-à-vis the nation) is a function of relative disparities in the change of these locational factors. Regression results show that the region's competitive advantage is influenced positively by the differential rate of change in market size, by the differential profit rate before tax, and negatively by the differential rate of change in unit labor cost and in unit energy cost. The differential tax rate does not seem to affect the region's competitive advantage. Nevertheless, a progressive corporate income tax structure tends to neutralize the beneficial effects of the economies of agglomeration and the urban attraction of the region.     

The Piketty phenomenon: why has Capital become a publishing sensation?

Why has Piketty's Capital become a publishing sensation? Not for revolutionary findings; its message that western societies have experienced increases in inequality of income and wealth over the long term is hardly new. Of the several reasons discussed in this article, attention is paid in particular to the book's timing and its claim to reveal the laws of income and wealth distribution in western societies. Had the book been published before 2008 it would have been much less successful. Piketty's revelation of the big trends and their underlying logic helps to objectify, legitimize and offer a kind of catharsis for surging middle‐class anxieties during the Great Recession. These anxieties have been further intensified by evidence that over 90 per cent of the increase in disposable income in the United States has accrued to the top 1 per cent of the population in the past several years, and a not much lower percentage to the top 1 per cent in Britain. In the conclusion it is argued that if Piketty's forecasts are even remotely accurate, capitalism will lose its core claim to legitimacy.     

Treatment or Placebo: Are State Programs Decreasing the Proportion of Uninsured?

Currently there are over 45 million Americans without health insurance. Recent growth in Medicaid and State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) enrollment of children has filled in the sizable gap created by decreased employer‐sponsored insurance since 2000. While the share of children who are uninsured actually decreased between 2000 and 2003, little progress was made in expanding public insurance to adults. As a result, advocates and policymakers at the federal and state level are searching for approaches to deal with the growing number of the uninsured. Conservatives advocate encouraging individuals to buy private insurance while liberals advocate the provision of health coverage through publicly financed health care. Using a 50‐state multilevel individual growth model, this study estimates the net effect of two state approaches in terms of reducing the uninsured: tax incentives (the conservative approach) and direct‐coverage programs (the liberal approach). The results suggest that these approaches have not achieved the results that many advocates had suggested. In the case of tax incentives, the results suggest that states with tax incentives experience increases in the rate of the uninsured. In the case of direct‐coverage programs, results suggest that states receive no relief in the number of uninsured individuals. Finally, the analysis suggests that the efforts originating at the federal level are most successful. These programs are a continuation of the incremental approach policymakers in America have taken to address the problem of the uninsured, rather than taking steps toward a truly comprehensive solution.     

No Race in Any Direction: State Welfare and Income Regimes

This paper has two objectives. First, we examine state adoption and implementation of income support policies under the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. We develop a composite measure of income support that includes welfare programs that scholars traditionally investigate and adds optional policies that encourage independence through work. Second, we engage a substantive focus on the administrative ability and willingness of states to adopt and implement sophisticated income support policies. We investigate the extent to which state government professionalism, ideology, economic resources, and racially based policies have shaped state policy. We find that the percentage of the state population is liberal; state racial demographics and governmental professionalism are critical determinants of state welfare and income support regimes. Significantly, we find no evidence that states are converging toward high‐quality, effectively financed welfare policies or income regime policies to help the poor move into and economically survive in the job market.     

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF SEOUL'S JOB DECENTRALIZATION: A METROPOLITAN INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT.  This study analyzes the economic impacts of job decentralization with the aid of the Seoul metropolitan input–output model (SMIO) for the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). Two main features can be highlighted: modeling perspective and simulation results. The SMIO is a pioneering work in the application of this type of metropolitan input–output analysis to the real world by taking into account the spatial and industrial relationships of multiplier effects simultaneously within a metropolitan economic system. The simulation results show that job decentralization results in a serious spatial and industrial restructuring of the metropolitan economy, and that the SMA gains significant economic benefits from job decentralization, no matter where the job expansion takes place within the metropolitan region. Interesting to find is that job decentralization generates positive induced effects for all scenarios through a virtuous circle of production, income formation, and consumption, given suburbanized population, which is one of the economic reasons why jobs follow people.     

长江三角洲都市连绵区城市规模结构演变研究

本文选取长江三角洲都市连绵区7个年份的城市人口规模数据,分别从城市规模等级结构、首位度、城市规模分形以及城市规模的空间演化等层面对城市规模结构的演变进行了分析,初步揭示了长江三角洲都市连绵区规模结构的分布特征和演变规律,并对其空间演变特征进行了总结。     

EXCLUDING THE POOR FROM LOW INCOME HOUSING PROGRAMS: THE ROLES OF STATE AGENCIES AND USAID IN JAMAICA*

This paper investigates why low-income housing agencies in Jamaica do not accomplish their self-imposed progressive mandates to assist large numbers of poor people. To expose what produces gaps between policy and practice, the analysis focuses on how housing programs are organized, both in Jamaica's two largest state agencies and in USAID. The crucial organizational features include the housing agencies' sources of funding, reliance on the private sector, and associated motives and interests. Among the three agencies, a set of inter-related forces block low income access to housing assistance: (1) most of the policy influences of international development agencies such as USAID, (2) the pervasiveness and increased penetration of market logic into low-income housing programs, (3) state agency bureaucratization and careerism, and (4) an elitist neglect of the housing needs of the poor. Prejudices against the poor based on the belief that they do not repay housing loans are not justified by empirical evidence, much less by the fact that the programs were explicitly created to improve their housing conditions.     

通勤时间的幸福绩效——基于中国家庭追踪调查的实证研究

幸福不仅是个人的心愿,也是城市管理者的执政目标之一,因此,对于城市中普遍存在的通勤时间过长所带来的心理影响研究十分必要。本文采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,考察了通勤时间对于个人主观幸福感的影响。实证结果显示,通勤时间对于个人幸福感存在显著的负向影响,随着个人通勤时间的增加,个人幸福感也随之降低。通勤时间与生活满意度也同样呈现显著的负相关,这也证明了结论的稳健性。通过进一步考察通勤时间负面影响的异质性发现,通勤时间对幸福感的影响在不同社会群体间存在差异,对于个人收入高、教育程度高、家庭收入高的居民而言,通勤时间所造成的负面心理影响更大。因此,政府应重视通勤对居民幸福感的影响,并致力于提高交通效率。     

BASIC PROBLEMS IN THE STAGE-BY-STAGE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSPORT NET IN THE ZONE OF THE BAIKAL-AMUR MAINLINE

The evolution of the transport net within the BAM zone is examined in terms of three development stages. The first stage will involve the construction of the initial framework of the future transport net; aside from the BAM itself, it is recommended that consideration be given to the construction of a permanent motor road instead of the temporary construction road now envisaged. The second stage, in the author's view, should include the start of an extension of the Little BAM northward toward Yakutsk, as well as an oil pipeline (the author does not agree with the view that the BAM would replace earlier plans for a Trans-Siberian pipeline). The third stage would include a gas pipeline from the Yakutian fields to the coast; it is recommended that the gas line follow the alignment of the new railroads. No specific time frame is attached to the proposed three development stages.     

国家精准扶贫政策对贫困农户脱贫增收的效果评价——基于双重差分模型的检验

基于重庆市武陵山区和秦巴山区贫困农户与非贫困农户的调研数据，运用双重差分模型检验精准扶贫政策对贫困农户收入增长的影响。结果表明，贫困农户在精准扶贫政策的支持下，家庭人均纯收入增长显著，与非贫困农户相比差距进一步缩小；家庭主要收入来源，由单一渠道向多渠道转变，人均种植业收入和人均养殖业收入增长最明显，二者贡献率合计达到61.87%；农户的年龄、家庭人口数量、老人小孩数量、耕地面积、耕作半径、是否发展特色产业等因素对贫困农户家庭人均纯收入影响显著。因此，发展特色产业，解决贫困农户的教育、医疗、住房和土地撂荒问题是保障贫困农户脱贫后稳定增收的关键。     

THE EFFECTS OF COLLATERALIZABLE INCOME AND DEBT OVERHANG ON ENTREPRENEURIAL INVESTMENT IN AN OPEN REGIONAL ECONOMY*

ABSTRACT We use a two‐period model to analyze the contractual relationship between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists in an open regional economy. First, we describe the first best investment contract, we study the second best investment contract in the presence of private information, and then we examine the impact of an exogenous second‐period income endowment (collateralizable income) on investment by entrepreneurs. Next, we analyze the interaction between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists when the regional government (RG) must pay off a per capita debt (debt overhang) which it finances by taxing successful second‐period entrepreneurs. We show that a rise in the per capita debt has an effect on investment that is analogous to a fall in the second‐period income endowment. In addition, the overhang of the RG's debt discourages entrepreneurial investment.     

THE CONCEPTUAL LINKS BETWEEN RECREATION SITE DEVELOPMENT AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS*

ABSTRACT. Assessing regional economic impacts of recreation trips is important to public agencies' decisions about using recreation as a rural development tool. Minimizing the total cost of recreation trip production implies that households will spatially distribute their purchases of inputs to trip production, including both trip-specific inputs and durable recreation equipment. A recreation site contributes to a region's economic growth through household purchases of trip inputs. The site's cost effects, price information effects, and recreation and retail agglomeration effects cause changes in household recreation purchases and ultimately generate regional economic impacts.     

Macroeconomic Effects of 21st Century Trade and Investment Agreements: The Case of the Trans‐Pacific Partnership

Following United States withdrawal, the Trans‐Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) is likely to be replaced or complemented by a series of bilateral deals between the US and TPP partners. In this case, TPP will shape trade, finance and public policy globally even without formal US participation. Proponents of TPP emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited projections suggest modest GDP gains after 10 years, varying from less than half a percentage point in the USA to 13 per cent in Vietnam. However, these projections assume full employment and constant income distribution in all countries, excluding some of the major risks of trade liberalization. This article provides alternative projections of the TPP's economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which allows for changes in employment and income distribution. Using this model, the authors obtain very different results. They find that the benefits to economic growth are even smaller than those projected with full‐employment models, and are negative for Japan and the USA. More importantly, they find that the TPP will likely lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality.