MIGRATION AS A WAY TO DIVERSIFY: EVIDENCE FROM RURAL TO URBAN MIGRATION IN THE U.S.

This paper extends the utility maximization model of migration by introducing income and unemployment‐related uncertainties as determinants of utility, and analyzes the effects of the informational advantages of migrants. The paper maintains that migration would expand an individual's economic choices and opportunities and allow diversification. Consequently, diversification advantages influence the location decisions of migrants, an effect captured by the correlation of incomes at the origin and potential destinations. We use the discrete choice model based on random utility maximization as the framework for our empirical investigation of migration from the United States rural to urban counties. This paper takes advantage of an equivalent relation between the conditional logit model and Poisson regression to study the migration decisions using aggregate data among a large set of spatial alternatives. The results show that the diversification concerns have significant effects on location decisions of the rural‐urban migrants in the United States.     

A Geographical Product Differentiation Model of Trade Competition in Third Markets

Product differentiation trade models have been developed in order to account for some contemporary patterns of international trade that are inexplicable under the theory of comparative advantage. This paper presents the case for the geographical differentiation of products. A generalized geographical product differentiation model of trade competition in industrial third markets is outlined within a discrete choice framework. The model treats product price and quality, as determined by country of origin, as distinct variables in export competition. An indirect empirical test of the model's validity, using the cases of export competition between the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany and the United States and Japan, indicates that the generalized model is worthwhile in its ability to account for successful trade competition.     

U.S. North-South labor migration and trade

The authors examine the roles of labor migration and commodity trade in the inter-regional equalization of the real wage rate in the United States. The emphasis is on North-South patterns. Theoretical models are first outlined and then tested using 1960 and 1970 census data and multi-regional input-output data for 1963. It is found that "the pattern of trade-embodied labor flow closely resembled the pattern of direct labor migration." It is also noted that "the South's hierarchical profile of relative plentifulness among age, education, and race-specific categories of work force tended to persist and remain fairly stable between 1960 and 1970.... One plausible hypothesis is that interregional commodity trade is accomplishing the bulk of the requisite adjustment in bringing about the real wage equalization."     

International Acquisitions: Host and Home Country Explanatory Characteristics

To better understand what place-specific attributes are most important to foreign direct investors, we consider the pattern of international foreign acquisitions, for the year 1993, from a simultaneous home and host country perspective. It is shown that the world's most prominent buyer and target countries are few in number. Furthermore, with the use of a stepwise-like Poisson regression procedure, we determine that both home and host country conditions are important in explaining the spatial pattern of low-tech and high-tech international acquisitions.
Specifically, international high-tech and low-tech acquisitions are best described by country-specific variables measuring trade, investment risk assessment, patents and tourism and that low-tech acquisitions are also linked with a country's domestic economic strength and government efficiency and stability. The outliers from the Poisson regression equations provide evidence that, in particular, the United States and Canada as well as, other countries geographically adjacent are disproportionately active in this type of foreign direct investment.     

Attitudes Towards Divided Government and Ticket-splitting in Australia and the United States

Divided party government has become a frequent occurrence in both the United States and Australia in recent years. In the United States, Morris Fiorina has argued that this result is intentional on the part of the voters, who do not fully trust either party to govern by itself. We test this theory in both the United States and Australia by comparing the voting patterns of those who prefer divided versus united party government. It is hypothesised that Fiorina's theory will actually work better in Australia than in the United States, due to the presence of a strong party system as well as a voting system for the Australian Senate that facilitates strategic voting on behalf of small parties. Indeed, near-identical logistic regression models demonstrate that Australians' attitudes about divided government are a very significant predictor of straight-ticket voting even when a host of other factors is controlled for, whereas in the United States such attitudes are insignificant.     

U.S. and Japanese Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis

East Asia has led the world in economic growth and export expansion in recent decades. The phenomenal rate of economic growth among the so‐called “four little tigers”—Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan—enabled them to achieve newly industrializing country (NIC) status in the 1980s, followed by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Earlier studies explained the development from the government‐led development paradigm, or the so‐called the statist approach. Scholars also argue that foreign direct investment (FDI) played an important role in the economic development, thanks to technology transfers. Kojima and Ozawa and later Kohama, however, argue that Japanese FDI help East Asian economies while U.S. FDI do not because Japanese technology transfer practices are appropriate for East Asian countries but not the United States'. Thus, we revisit the issue of East Asian economic development and test the economic effects of FDI from the United States and Japan. Using a Barro‐type growth model, we test the effects of FDI from the United States and Japan on economic growth in East Asian NICs. We find that FDI from both the United States and Japan helped economic growth in the “four little tigers,” but not in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.     

A Model to Relate the Size of the Central Business District to the Population of a City

A set of dynamic models of CBD growth are developed. They hypothesize that growth rates depend upon the population growth rate together with the increasing unwillingness of people to travel to the city center as city size increases. A prediction of the model is that absolute decreases in CBD size can occur associated simply with population growth rather than technological change as is usually postulated. The models are tested using retail sales data for the United States. Good predictions are generally found, especially when the unique CBD of New York City is removed from the data set. However, the model which has the greatest theoretical validity relative to central place theory does not have the best fit to the data. Implications of this are discussed, along with those of utilizing transformations in regression models.     

后冷战时期马来西亚对美政策评析

后冷战时期,马来西亚与美国展开一连串激烈交锋,两国关系一度非常紧张。马来西亚对美采取强硬政策的原因,包括冷战后国际政治格局变化,美国东南亚政策的改变,以及金融危机后马来西亚的政治和经济安全面临的严重威胁等。但马美经贸关系继续发展,美国还跃升为马来西亚最大的出口市场和外资来源,这与马来西亚成功的外交谋略不无关系。对美政策有效地捍卫了马来西亚的政治和经济利益,提高了马来西亚的国际地位,基本体现了马来西亚当时的国家利益,充分显示了小国外交的智慧。     

Restructuring Intra-urban Space during China's Transition. Jian Feng

An American geographer whose research focuses on Europe reports on changes in geographical patterns and trends in merchandise export trade after the dismantling of political- economic divisions prevailing during the Cold War and their replacement by European political and economic integration as well as globalization. Analysis and comparison of international trade data for the years 1960 and 2010 reveal a dramatic expansion in the role of Germany and China in European merchandise trade, accompanied by a decline in the importance of the United States and United Kingdom. The author also demonstrates how some countries such as the Netherlands have expanded their exports to a broader range of European countries, whereas others appear to be consolidating their roles as leaders of regional trade blocs (e.g., Italy in Southeastern Europe).     

POISSON GRAVITY MODELS OF SPATIAL FLOWS*

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to bring together a number of results on spatial flow models, and to reformulate them within a unified probability framework based on Poisson frequencies. To do so, a class of discrete stochastic processes, designated as independent flow processes, is developed which not only yields a complete characterization of Poisson flow frequencies, but also allows a wide range of gravity-type flow models to be formulated within this distributional framework. In particular, a hierarchical classification of 12 model types is developed, and each model type is shown to be characterizable directly in terms of behavioral axioms on independent flow processes.     

Fitting Constrained Poisson Regression Models to Interurban Migration Flows

This paper demonstrates the effects of fitting singly and doubly constrained spatial interaction models using the Poisson regression approach. A large data set containing migration flows between labor market areas in Great Britain in 1970–71 is used. The results of fitting unconstrained, singly constrained, and doubly constrained models are compared with respect to goodness of fit and the interpretability of parameter estimates. The addition of other explanatory variables to the model is also explored.     

Preserving the Status Quo: Britain,the United States,and Bolivian Tin, 1946–56

This article analyses the relationship between Britain, the United States, and Bolivia in the context of the tin nexus after the Second World War. While the connection between Britain and Bolivia was long-standing - Bolivian tin had been shipped to Britain since the nineteenth century - it extended far beyond simple bilateralism. Such was the intricate web of connections in the global tin industry that any rupture in the Anglo-Bolivian relationship would have fundamental ramifications on the equilibrium of the industry, and, in turn, Britain's predominant position within it. The United States had overtly challenged Britain's dominance during the Second World War by constructing a smelter to be supplied by Bolivian ores. Despite the financial exigencies of the post-war period, the profound upheavals in the domestic Bolivian tin industry, and the contentious, destabilising tin-procurement policy pursued by the United States, Britain was determined to confront this threat. By actively seeking to preserve its long-term contract for Bolivian tin, Britain was able to maintain its predominance in the post-war global tin industry. At the same time, Bolivia deftly utilised Anglo-American rivalry to ensure more than one outlet for its most critical export commodity.     

Specialization of Agriculture in Relatively Similar Natural Environments of the USSR and the United States

Four pairs of minor civil divisions in the United States and the USSR are compared to determine differences of agricultural land use in areas with similar soils and heat and moisture supplies. In the United States, crops exceed animal products as a source of farm income only in the driest area. In the Soviet Union, crops are the principal source of farm income in both dry and more humid areas. This is related to the fact that the United States produces forage grasses and forage root crops mainly in more humid areas, while the Soviet Union relegates forage crops to a secondary role after bread grains and industrial row crops. Grain yields in the United States rise markedly from drier to more humid areas. In the Soviet Union the highest yields are achieved in the moderately dry chernozem zone.     

Fish Markets of Belize: Problems of Fish Consumption

The coastal waters of Belize, in Central America, are well stocked with fish, but since early colonial limes the commercial development of marine resources, beginning with the exploitation of turtles in the 17th century, has depended more on foreign markets than domestic markets for fish. Today the bulk of the most popular fish (spiny lobster, conch and snappers) is collected by five fisherman cooperative societies for export to the United States, leaving some preferred specimens in short supply in the domestic market. Where marine resources are utilized for domestic consumption, the demand for fish is highly selective. Most species have a low consumer demand. This imbalance in the demand for fish is exacerbated by government supported price controls on different species that favor the purchase of the most popular fish. The degree to which fish are consumed in the Belizean households is culturally determined. Based on a survey, Black Caribs have the highest consumption of fish followed by Creoles and Spanish-speaking mestizos. Basic research on fish consumption habits is an important fisst step in developing marketing strategies to encourage people to eat more fish and to accept those species that are currently rejected.     

Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs

In this paper we examine dynamic relationships among wheat prices from five countries for the years 1981–1999. Error correction models and directed acyclic graphs are employed with observational data to sort–out the dynamic causal relationships among prices from major wheat producing regions: Canada, the European Union, Argentina, Australia, and the United States. An ambiguity related to the cyclic or acyclic flow of information between Canada and Australia is uncovered. We condition our analysis on the assumption that information flow is acyclic. The empirical results show that Canada and the U.S. are leaders in the pricing of wheat in these markets. The U.S. has a significant effect on three markets excluding Canada.     

Variation in strontium isotope ratios of archaeological fauna in the Midwestern United States: a preliminary study

Strontium isotope values (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) in bone and tooth enamel have been used increasingly to identify non-local individuals within prehistoric human populations worldwide. Archaeological research in the Midwestern United States has increasingly highlighted the role of population movement in affecting interregional cultural change. However, the comparatively low level of geologic variation in the Midwestern United States might suggest a corresponding low level of strontium variation, and calls into question the sensitivity of strontium isotopes to identify non-local individuals in this region. Using strontium isotopes of archaeological fauna, we explore the degree of variability in strontium ratios across this region. Our results demonstrate measurable variation in strontium ratios and indicate the potential of strontium analysis for addressing questions of origin and population movement in the Midwestern United States.     

The Trouble with U.S.-Third World Studies

Robert J. McMahon. The Cold War on the Periphery: The United States, India, and Pakistan . New York: Columbia University Press, 1994.
Kenton J. Clymer. Quest for Freedom: The United States and India's Independence . New York.     

Can Russia Compete in the Global Economy?

A noted British economist and analyst of current developments in Russia investigates that country's competitiveness in global merchandise export markets by seeking to determine its trade specialization and comparative advantage in a global context. In search of consistent trends, the author compares Russia's scores in 2000 on the Balassa Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage with those of 2004, and also for that year with a selected list of international competitors (Brazil, India, China, Turkey, and the United States) as well. He then discusses recent (through June 2006) government efforts to stimulate export growth in sectors currently underrepresented in Russia's trade profile and assesses prospects for improvement in the balance of Russia's export profile. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E20, F14, F40. 7 tables, 20 references, 1 appendix.     

The Statistical Modeling of Flow Data When the Poisson Assumption Is Violated

The Poisson model typically provides a poor fit to flow data but more complex models are difficult to operationalize, especially with production or attraction constraints. Quasi- and pseudo-likelihood approaches retain the attractive computational features of the Poisson model. A shopping model example suggests the latter approach to be preferable.     

ATTENUATION RELATION FOR WEST EURASIA DETERMINED WITH RECENT NEAR-FAULT RECORDS FROM CALIFORNIA,JAPAN AND TURKEY

Strong ground motion close to a fault can be expected to be very large, so its estimation is essential for human safetv. Although a few strong-motion data exist for the west Eurasian region, we proposed in a previous work [Berge-Thierry et al., 2003] an attenuation relation for spectral acceleration using strong-motion data recorded in west Eurasia (mainly in Europe) and some in the western United States: this relationship was derived for the French Safety Rule, which is applied for seismic hazard assessment at nuclear power plants. In this study, we propose a constraining of the amplitude saturation term related to the proximity of the fault, and an adding of an amplitude saturation term in the regression model. We add, to the data-set previously used to derive the west Eurasian attenuation relationship strong-motions recorded during recent large earth-quakes: the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) event in Japan and the 1999 Kocaeli (Izmit) event in Turkey. The regression analysis, adopted from Fukushima and Tanaka [1990], is non-linear, so an iterative procedure is applied. The determined regression coefficients lead to a prediction of a peak ground acceleration of about 0.7 g for soil site conditions at a fault distance of 0.5 km. The Q coefficient deduced, from the distance coefficient is in agreement with scattering Q models. The introduction of the saturation term leads to significantly lower predictions of average spectral accelerations at short distances as compared with using the Berge-Thierry et al. [2003] empirical model.