THE COLFIORITO EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE OF SEPTEMBER–OCTOBER 1997: SURFACE BREAKS AND SEISMOTECTONIC IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CENTRAL APENNINES (ITALY)

Between September–October 1997, a seismic sequence with three main shocks (Mw=5.6, 5.9, on September 26, and Ms=5.5 on October 14) struck the Umbria-Marche region in central Italy between the villages of Nocera-Umbra and Sellano. Although earthquake-induced landslides were observed and mapped in the epicentral area along the main active normal faults, no surface faulting was associated with the two first shocks of September 26. In contrast, the third shock of October 14 produced discontinuous coseismic tectonic ruptures (60 m–500 m long) along a total length of 5 km. Surface ruptures strike in the NNW-SSE direction, dip to the SW and show locally en-echelon geometry (either right-or left-stepping). Coseismic ruptures and active faults are in good agreement with CMT focal-mechanism solutions that indicate normal faulting for the three main shocks. These results provide additional information on surface tectonic ruptures caused by moderate-sized earthquakes, yielding some constraints on seismotectonic processes.     

Fiscal Reform,Policy, and Constraints during Transition in Poland

Two specialists on the Polish economy examine the process whereby the fiscal system of Poland's centrally planned economy was replaced during the 1990s by a system designed for a market economy. Changes in the structure of both revenues and expenditures are described. The authors demonstrate that fiscal authorities in Poland heretofore have maintained budget control despite radical changes in fiscal systems and institutions. However, they identify and assess emerging concerns regarding the ability of fiscal authorities to manage the economy in the face of external shocks, potential mismanagement of extra-budget expenditures such as social security, and increased debt-financing requirements. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E50, E60, H50, H60. 6 figures, 5 tables, 27 references.     

RECESSIONARY SHOCKS AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE ON THE RESILIENCE OF U.K. REGIONS*

ABSTRACT We analyze the resilience of U.K. regions to employment shocks. Two basic notions of resilience are distinguished. With engineering resilience, there is an underlying stable growth path to which a regional economy rebounds following a shock. With ecological resilience, shocks can permanently affect the growth path of the regional economy. Our data set consists of quarterly employment series for 12 U.K. regions (NUTS I) for the period 1971–2010. Using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model specification, we test for the relevance of (engineering) resilience of U.K. regional employment to the four recessionary shocks in our sample. It turns out that U.K. regions do indeed differ in their resilience, but that these differences mainly concern the initial resistance to these shocks and not so much the recovery stage. The SUR model does not allow shocks to have permanent effects and it also does not take the possibility of time differentiated shock spillovers between the 12 regions into account. To this end, we also estimate a vector error‐correction model (VECM) specification where employment shocks can have permanent effects and where also interregional employment linkages are included. We find that employment shocks typically have permanent effects when it concerns the own‐region effects. Permanent effects can also be found for the impact on other regions but the interregional effects are typically only significant for nearby regions.     

Potential Focusing Projects and Policy Change

Why do policies change dramatically? Most prominent theories and many empirical studies of policy change address that question with attention to external shocks to policy systems or focusing events. These shocks or events are usually described as unplanned, unpredicted jolts such as global crises or natural disasters. I assert a role for focusing projects. These planned activities continue traditional priorities in an issue but do so to a degree perceived as excessive by enough people to shatter seemingly stable policy systems. I then propose a theoretical framework to explain the varying impacts from such projects. The framework uses two dimensions: one that accounts for the mobilization of pro‐change forces and one that assesses policy learning by members of pro‐status quo coalitions. I examine this framework in the context of changes to dam‐building policies in four diverse political settings: United States, Australia, Canada, and China. I find intriguing similarities between the focusing projects in these different contexts but also considerable variation in the extent to which they produce policy change.     

DIRECTIONS FOR DIVERSIFICATION WITH AN APPLICATION TO SASKATCHEWAN*

ABSTRACT. Traditional models of regional diversification do not capture the trade-off between stability and living standards. In this paper, we characterize regions as open activity models subjected to both productivity and price shocks. We then partially rank small diversification policies by the direction in which they point away from the current industrial structure in mean-variance space. Some general patterns emerge. In particular, diversification for regional self-sufficiency and away from regional comparative advantage may be undesirable.     

Staying on Top: Why is Munich so Resilient and Successful?

This article seeks to explain why Munich, Germany's most economically successful city in recent decades, has proved so resilient despite various challenges and shocks. It begins by discussing different theoretical understandings of resilience and our methodological approach which builds on complex adaptive systems and evolutionary economic geography perspectives. Using a blend of historical analysis and in-depth investigation of the dynamics of one of the city's most innovative clusters, we argue that Munich's resilience essentially stems from the complex interplay of Germany's distinctive political history and federal system, which has promoted multi-level governance and a strong urban system, longstanding city regional leadership and entrepreneurialism, Munich's inherent assets and diverse economy and the combined strength of its many knowledge institutions, innovation system and networks. The evidence suggests that historic, structural and locational factors and agglomeration effects largely explain Munich's rise to prominence but that sustained urban and regional leadership and effective governance and policy especially in the technological, scientific and educational spheres coupled with intelligent urban planning have played an increasingly important role in sustaining its competitiveness.     

Punctuated Equilibrium in Limbo: The Tobacco Lobby and U.S. State Policymaking from 1990 to 2003

Since the mid-1980s, U.S. tobacco policy has been an intense and acrimonious issue between antitobacco advocates and the tobacco industry. In the United States, the tobacco industry has responded to heightened state antitobacco litigation, adverse public opinion, and public health advocacy by aggressively mobilizing against tobacco taxes and regulations. This article examines whether these tobacco policy trends can be generalized to punctuated equilibrium theory ideas that policy monopolies are stable over long periods and usually change because of sharp and short-term exogenous shocks to the policy system. From 1990 to 2003, there was a sharp mobilization by health advocates in all states and a significant rise in new legislation to control tobacco use. The tobacco industry, nevertheless, was able to generally keep state tobacco taxes low and counter significant regulatory threats to tobacco sales. From this, I conclude that the policy monopoly favoring the tobacco industry did not significantly change, despite the symbolic appearance of punctuation in the policy system.     

Economic resilience of metropolitan,old industrial,and rural regions in two subsequent recessionary shocks

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we focus on the question of how particular types of regions react to economic shocks. Drawing on a case study of Czech microregions, we aim to determine if the old industrial regions differ significantly from other types of regions (metropolitan, urban, rural) in (post)crisis economic development. Two aspects of regional resilience (measured by unemployment growth) were considered: recession and recovery. We focused on the comparison of two subsequent recessionary shocks: the 2008–2010 global recession and the 2012–2013 austerity crisis. Metropolitan regions showed relatively stable economic development. Old industrial regions were more resilient than expected. Rural regions exhibited highly diverse reactions: lower resistance was characteristic for regions specialized (mostly) in automotive and some labour-intensive industries. The first wave of recession increased unemployment mostly in (rural) regions dependent on export-oriented manufacturing, the second wave especially hit larger cities with metropolitan functions. Regions that experienced a sharp unemployment increase in the first recession were generally more resistant in the second wave. All types of regions were internally highly diverse in their reactions to economic crises, which points to the importance of micro-regional variations of economic resilience, the performance of individual local firms and subsidiaries, and extra-regional factors of regional development.     

中国西南贫困地区乡村韧性研究——以重庆市为例

文章聚焦于我国西南贫困地区乡村韧性，以重庆市 120 个抽样村为研究对象，采用熵值法，从经济韧性、社会韧性、工程韧性多维度视角评价重庆市乡村韧性水平。研究发现：①重庆市抽样村庄的乡村韧性平均值为0.46（满分为1），处于中等偏下水平。②重庆市北部地区的乡村韧性水平较高，交通不便、少数民族聚居的东南部地区乡村韧性水平相对较低。③经济韧性水平偏低限制了抽样村的韧性水平，体现在生产资本投入不足、人力资本水平偏低、土地资源禀赋不优。④相较于乡村状态韧性，抽样乡村的响应韧性水平较低，主要原因在于乡村经济子系统与基础设施（减灾防灾）子系统的响应韧性值较低。文章基于研究结果提出了旨在提升我国西南地区乡村韧性的建议。     

Textural and isotopic evidence on the fluid source and transport mechanism of antitaxial fibrous microstructures from the Alps and the Appalachians

The source of fluid‐forming veins is of great importance in order to understand the hydraulic system acting in the earth's crust. The study of syntectonic antitaxial veins is one of the few methods by which the opening history can be deduced from rocks, and thus these veins are of primary importance in determining rock kinematics. Antitaxial veins were taken from black shales in two different tectonic settings in the Helvetic Alps, Switzerland, and the Taconic Appalachians, New York State. These syntectonic extension veins are regularly spaced and are oriented sub‐normal to bedding. The vein microstructure displays a symmetry around the median line in the centre of the vein, and a symmetry in cathodoluminescence banding parallel to the vein–wall interface, which suggests transport along bedding‐parallel dissolution planes from both vein‐walls. Antitaxial veins nucleated in transgranular fractures, but evidence for ongoing multiple crack‐seal increments is lacking; rather, veins grew continuously keeping close contact to the vein‐wall. Radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are higher in the surrounding matrix than in the vein, and higher than the corresponding seawater data in all samples. Variations are small and calcite in both the vein and the host rock were derived from the same source of fluid in the Helvetic samples. Mass balance of Sr suggests that the amount of calcite is too small in the surrounding host rock to be derived locally. Stable oxygen compositions are heavier in the host rock than in the veins, with overall low variation in both δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values in the Mesozoic Helvetic samples. Data point to a rock‐buffered system, the precipitate most likely derived from an external source. The lower Palaeozoic Appalachian veins have lesser δ¹⁸O values than the host rock, similar to the Helvetic veins. Radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr data and a large heterogeneity in stable isotope values indicate an open system. Microstructural and isotopic evidence suggests that the antitaxial veins were formed by pervasive fluid flow, with the solute at least partly derived from an external source.     

WHERE IS AN OIL SHOCK?

Much of the literature examining the effects of oil shocks asks the question “What is an oil shock?” and has concluded that oil‐price increases are asymmetric in their effects on the U.S. economy. That is, sharp increases in oil prices affect economic activity adversely, but sharp decreases in oil prices have no effect. We reconsider the directional symmetry of oil‐price shocks by addressing the question “Where is an oil shock?” the answer to which reveals a great deal of spatial/directional asymmetry across states. Although most states have typical responses to oil‐price shocks—they are affected by positive shocks only—the rest experience either negative shocks only (five states), both positive and negative shocks (five states), or neither shock (five states).     

Russia after the Global Financial Crisis

Two prominent American specialists on the Russian economy present a fundamental analysis of basic economic factors explaining how the global financial crisis has played out in Russia and its implications for the country's future. More specifically, the authors examine the consequences of Russia's dependence on and addiction to resource (oil and gas) rents and of the management system put in place under Vladimir Putin to maintain, secure, and distribute these rents. They then investigate how each of these factors has emerged from the crisis and how it might evolve in the years ahead. Focusing on the distinction between rent dependence and addiction, the authors question the conventional wisdom that diversification of Russia's economy (away from oil and gas) is a desirable objective that will render it less vulnerable to external shocks. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E020, F020, G010, O130. 15 figures, 44 references.     

Determining Olmec maize use through bulk stable carbon isotope analysis

Bulk stable carbon isotope analysis on absorbed organic residues in ceramics can be an effective method for discerning patterns of maize use when the ceramics come from relatively uniform archaeological contexts. The bulk stable carbon isotope method is faster and less costly than the more commonly used compound-specific stable carbon isotope analysis. Moreover, the bulk stable carbon isotope method can determine the presence of C4 plant carbon in samples in which organic compounds have degraded. Bulk stable carbon isotope analysis was used to discern patterns of maize (Zea mays mays) use among a sample of 24 ceramic sherds from an Early Franco Period feasting deposit (ca. cal 650 B.C.) at the Olmec site of San Andrés, La Venta, Tabasco, Mexico. A comparison of the δ 13C results of different categories of ceramics showed that proportionally more maize was used in luxury beverage service wares than in utilitarian vessels, suggesting that maize-based beverages were prominent in this probable elite feasting episode.     

Sociospatial Residential Dynamics: Stability and Instability within a Self-Organizing City

Conceiving the city as a self-organizing system we highlight and examine the phenomena of residential sociospatial segregation in a city and the existence and role of local regions of instability within an otherwise stable urban system. It is argued that the emergence of local pockets of sociospatial instability is governed (among other things) by a self-organization principle we term the captivity principle. The latter is essential to the systemic stability and reproduction of the city as a whole. The discussion is elaborated by reference to empirical evidence and by means of “city games” played on City, a cellular automata simulation model we have specifically designed for this purpose.     

How Did Mississippians Prepare Maize? The Application of Compound‐Specific Carbon Isotope Analysis to Absorbed Pottery Residues From Several Mississippi Valley Sites

A newly developed compound‐specific stable carbon isotope technique allows the detection of maize in absorbed organic pottery residues. This method was applied to absorbed organic residues from a variety of Mississippi Valley potsherds, and successfully identified maize components. Maize was cooked in sampled vessels less often than expected, but otherwise fitted expected patterns of maize use derived from stable carbon isotope analysis of human bone from the region. Absorbed organic pottery residue analysis is useful in determining pottery use, particularly in concert with other analytical methods.     

SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION IN BRITISH UNEMPLOYMENT

ABSTRACT. The recent literature on local unemployment in Britain and the U.S. is reviewed, and a model estimated for Britain which is consistent with the findings of that literature. Spatial econometric techniques are applied to test and elaborate on that model. The results indmte the presence of significant spillovers in adjustments to local demand shocks. These spillovers occur over a wide spatial field and are strongest after a lag, suggesting that they reflect migration behavior. In addition, highly localized spatial interactions are found, consistent with commuting adjustments in response to shocks. Incorporating these effects eliminates spatial autocorrelation from the residuals. A simulation exercise is undertaken to demonstrate the effects of supply- and demand-side shocks on the model solution.     

Assessing the life history of an andean traveller through biogeochemistry: Stable and radiogenic isotope analyses of archaeological human remains from Northern Chile

Bioarchaeology and biogeochemistry can elucidate aspects of individual life histories that are often lost in the archaeological record. Here, we use stable and radiogenic isotope analyses of enamel, bone and hair to reconstruct paleodiet and paleomobility in an adult male interred along a pre‐Columbian route connecting the northern Chilean coast to the inland Loa River Valley. Although this well‐preserved burial included mortuary goods typical of coastal cultures, it was discovered in a vast, uninhabited part of northern Chile's hyper‐arid Atacama Desert. Variation in carbon and nitrogen isotopes reflects dietary differences, while strontium and oxygen isotopes vary geologically and geographically. We use these data to examine paleodiet and paleomobility and to assess whether this was a coastal traveller seeking provisions from the interior or vice versa. Enamel stable isotope analysis is consistent with the consumption of a mixture of terrestrial and marine resources during the first years of life. Bone stable isotope analyses indicate habitual consumption of marine foodstuffs over the last 10–30 years of this individual's life. Interestingly, stable isotope analysis of hair samples provides more fine‐grained information on this individual, suggesting movements between the coast and highlands in the months before his death. Radiogenic strontium isotope data are consistent with residence on the coast or in the Atacama Desert, but are lower than strontium isotope values from higher altitudes. These dietary and geological patterns are reconcilable with coastal residency; the isotopic data are consistent with foodstuffs and textiles found with the burial. Therefore, we argue that this individual was regularly moving from the coast to inland areas, crossing the hyper‐arid Atacama Desert by following strategic interzonal routes that provided access to particular resources. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exotic Nuclei

Abstract

Atomic nuclei are composed of two kinds of nucleons, the positively charged protons and the uncharged neutrons. Two forces are acting in nuclei; the attractive nuclear force between the neutrons and the repulsive electrostatic force between the protons. The number of protons in a nucleus is called its atomic number (symbol Z). The number also determines the number of electrons surrounding the nucleus and, hence, the chemical behavior of an atom; chemical elements differ in thei atomic number. The neutron number is indicated by N, and the mass number – that is, the total number of Z+n nuclear particles in a nucleus – by A. In light stable nuclei, protons and nuetrons are mixed in a ratio close to one-to-one as can be seen in the chart of nuclides (Figure 1). For example, the most abundant stable atomic nucleus of the element oxygen contains eight protons and eight neutrons (Z=N=8, A=16).     

Corondó: palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and palaeoethnobotanical considerations in a probable locus of early plant cultivation (south-eastern Brazil)

Abstract

The site of Corondó, situated in Campos Novos, in the São Pedro D'Aldeia municipe (Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil), was dated between c. 4000 and 3000 years BP. The high prevalence of dental caries in its population suggests that it might have been a locus of plant cultivation, a hypothesis supported by the presence of diverse plant remains and by the high frequency of grinding artefacts at this site. Anthracological analysis aimed to identify the environment of the site. The charcoal spectrum suggests that it was situated in a restinga forest, near to the Atlantic forest and with the presence of mangrove and open restinga in the environment. Firewood supply was probably obtained by the random gathering of dead wood. The combination of anthracological results with data provided by archaeological and bioanthropological research indicated that the population which constructed this site (1) had a relatively stable sociocultural system; (2) carried out a range of individual activities that remained constant throughout the occupation period; (3) lived in a relatively stable environment.     

Contrasting paleofluid systems in the continental basement: a fluid inclusion and stable isotope study of hydrothermal vein mineralization,Schwarzwald district,Germany

An integrated fluid inclusion and stable isotope study was carried out on hydrothermal veins (Sb‐bearing quartz veins, metal‐bearing fluorite–barite–quartz veins) from the Schwarzwald district, Germany. A total number of 106 Variscan (quartz veins related to Variscan orogenic processes) and post‐Variscan deposits were studied by microthermometry, Raman spectroscopy, and stable isotope analysis. The fluid inclusions in Variscan quartz veins are of the H₂O–NaCl–(KCl) type, have low salinities (0–10 wt.% eqv. NaCl) and high T_h values (150–350°C). Oxygen isotope data for quartz range from +2.8‰ to +12.2‰ and calculated δ¹⁸O_H2O values of the fluid are between ?12.5‰ and +4.4‰. The δD values of water extracted from fluid inclusions vary between ?49‰ and +4‰. The geological framework, fluid inclusion and stable isotope characteristics of the Variscan veins suggest an origin from regional metamorphic devolatilization processes. By contrast, the fluid inclusions in post‐Variscan fluorite, calcite, barite, quartz, and sphalerite belong to the H₂O–NaCl–CaCl₂ type, have high salinities (22–25 wt.% eqv. NaCl) and lower T_h values of 90–200°C. A low‐salinity fluid (0–15 wt.% eqv. NaCl) was observed in late‐stage fluorite, calcite, and quartz, which was trapped at similar temperatures. The δ¹⁸O values of quartz range between +11.1‰ and +20.9‰, which translates into calculated δ¹⁸O_H2O values between ?11.0‰ and +4.4‰. This range is consistent with δ¹⁸O_H2O values of fluid inclusion water extracted from fluorite (?11.6‰ to +1.1‰). The δD values of directly measured fluid inclusion water range between ?29‰ and ?1‰, ?26‰ and ?15‰, and ?63‰ and +9‰ for fluorite, quartz, and calcite, respectively. Calculations using the fluid inclusion and isotope data point to formation of the fluorite–barite–quartz veins under near‐hydrostatic conditions. The δ¹⁸O_H2O and δD data, particularly the observed wide range in δD, indicate that the mineralization formed through large‐scale mixing of a basement‐derived saline NaCl–CaCl₂ brine with meteoric water. Our comprehensive study provides evidence for two fundamentally different fluid systems in the crystalline basement. The Variscan fluid regime is dominated by fluids generated through metamorphic devolatilization and fluid expulsion driven by compressional nappe tectonics. The onset of post‐Variscan extensional tectonics resulted in replacement of the orogenic fluid regime by fluids which have distinct compositional characteristics and are related to a change in the principal fluid sources and the general fluid flow patterns. This younger system shows remarkably persistent geochemical and isotopic features over a prolonged period of more than 100 Ma.