湖南构建人口均衡型社会的现实挑战与可能出路

当前湖南构建人口均衡型社会面临着诸如人口与经济发展不协调、人口与资源环境承载力不适应、人口内部各要素发展不均衡、人口流动变迁不平衡等一系列问题和挑战。为解决这些人口均衡问题,要求建立人口均衡型社会发展指标体系,加快实施城乡一体化发展战略,加强人口均衡型社会的前瞻理论研究,注重人口均衡的公共政策组合体系设计,加大人口均衡型社会建设的宣传和培训力度。     

中国大陆人口移动机制与调控对策

本文讨论了人口移动机制的理论;认为经济发展水平和环境质量的空间差异形成了人口移动的区域生态场势,人口自身的生命素质和社会能力构成了人口的生态价位,两者的动态均衡决定了人口移动的空间格局;进而提出对下一世纪人口移动的调控战略。     

九十年代我国人口地理学研究的瞻望

本文在分析我国人口形势的基础上,提出了九十年代结合我国人口实际情况开展人口地理研究的主要课题.同时对人口地理研究中理论与方法的提高也进行了讨论.     

“六普”终结“一孩制”？

＂我们的计划生育工作是不是失败了？＂ 2005年1月6日零点2分,张亦驰在北京妇产医院出生,国家统计局宣布这个小男孩是我国大陆地区的第13亿个公民,这一天也被定为＂13亿人口日＂。＂再创辉煌,应对挑战＂是＂13亿人口日＂的主题,尽管世界罕有的、严格的计划生育政策使得13亿人口推迟了4年到来,但中国人口总量仍然庞大得触目惊心。     

发展循环经济与实现我国区域可持续协调发展

发展循环经济是建设“资源节约型和环境友好型”社会、实现我国区域可持续协调发展的内在要求。本文运用“人口机会窗口”理论和区域人口转变与区域经济增长的一般模式理论及方法,分析探讨了我国区域人口转变与经济增长的现代发展历程和特征;从资源环境对区域经济可持续发展的重大影响方面,提出了发展区域经济应遵循其资源与生态环境可持续发展的基本原则;应全面深刻认识区域资源环境可持续协调发展的循环经济特征,加强循环经济“三大体系”建设,以全面实现我国人口、资源、环境与区域经济的可持续协调发展。     

一般均衡视角的旅游产业福利效应研究——基于中国四个世界双遗产旅游地的面板数据分析

本文利用一般均衡理论,以图解分析法分析旅游产业快速发展对旅游目的地所产生的福利效应。研究显示,旅游产业快速发展对旅游目的地GDP增长率有显著的积极影响,推动了社会福利水平的提升,但对旅游目的地CPI、居民实际收入、工农业等相关产业发展、收入分配、社会治安、生态环境等有显著的消极影响,又在一定程度上降低了当地居民的社会福利,其最终影响取决于积极影响与消积影响的＂双向均衡＂。同时,以中国四个世界自然与文化双遗产旅游区为实证研究对象验证了这种＂双向均衡＂社会福利效应的存在性。研究为我国不同旅游目的地旅游产业的产业定位与可持续发展的政策制定提供了一定的借鉴。     

人口流动对边境地区人口安全的影响及机制分析

本文关注我国边境人口变动和人口流动状况,着重分析了人口流动对边境人口安全的影响机制,并探讨了边境人口流动的影响因素。研究发现,①边境县域人口总体规模稳中略降,人口增速和增量持续减少;②人口净流出已逐步成为边境人口变动主要因素;③边境人口变动与流动影响程度有明显区域差异。外流风险型地区已出现明显的人口负增长和外流,人口安全缺乏数量和质量保障;相对稳定型地区人口保持低速增长,但其人口净流出水平正不断提高,有向外流风险型转变的趋势;相对封闭增长型地区人口增长较快,但流动性较弱。各类边境地区人口流出流入呈现不同特征,并受到经济、教育、城镇化、民族、政策等不同因素影响。     

现代史学方法论视角下的人口循环理论

马尔萨斯理论在史学上被广泛应用。马尔萨斯认为人口的增长导致饥饿和社会危机,随之而来的是人口数量的减少、消费增加,随后人口数量又开始增加。人口数量的稳定波动就是人口循环周期。20世纪30年代俄国经济学家雅什诺夫在史学研究中第一次揭示了马尔萨斯人口循环理论。随后W.阿贝尔和M.波斯坦在欧洲史研究方面运用了该理论。20世纪下半叶人口循环理论得到了深入的研究,尤其受到法国年鉴派史学家布罗代尔等人的重视。随后,J.戈尔斯通的人口结构理论为人口循环理论的发展注入了新的活力。近几年以J.卡姆罗斯、P.图尔钦为代表的学者广泛采用数学模拟方法研究人口循环理论,运用这一方法可将人口循环周期分为增长阶段、紧缩阶段和生态危机阶段。此外,运用人口循环理论取得的研究成果有助于对社会和经济发展做出预测。     

明代人口分布对社会经济的影响

明代人口分布与社会经济发展有着密切的关系。从地域上看,明代人口分布并不均衡;从时间上看,明代前、中、后期各地区人口分布发生了一些变化。明代人口分布状况对社会经济布局、经济结构调整、城镇的发展、劳动结构和职业结构的变化以及局部地区人口过剩和资源紧张等方面均产生了极大影响,既有积极作用,又有消极作用。     

梁中堂与控制人口的"二胎"化试验

2010年是《中共中央关于控制我国人口增长问题致全体共产党员共青团员的公开信》发布30周年。根据国家人口与计划生育委员会的说法,实行计划生育政策30年,中国少生4亿人口。     

Integrating Delegation into the Policy Theory Literature

Public policy scholars have developed a number of theories of the policymaking process. Their work has come to define what some now refer to as the "policy theory" literature. Our task is to identify theoretical and empirical courses of study that will advance this research program. We limit ourselves to identifying an existing theory that already provides such an advance and discuss some of its theoretical benefits and empirical support. Specifically, we make the case that there exists a well-developed theory of delegation that rivals what we deem to be the best of the existing policy theories. We also suggest that existing theoretical frameworks might benefit from incorporating delegation theory explicitly and conclude that policy research has much to contribute to the development and useful application of delegation models.     

Scotland's demographic regime: Population and the politics of devolution

Scotland, with just over 5 million inhabitants, is a small country relative to most of its neighbours in Europe, including England. Under the recently (re)established Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, devolved responsibilities have provided a new context within which the characteristics of its demographic regime have come to be seen as problematic. In this paper we review the empirical evidence underpinning political perceptions of a population ‘crisis’ in Scotland and argue that spatial comparisons have been particularly influential in this politicisation of population. We then examine the dimensions of the population debate through the voices of politicians and the media. We conclude with a brief consideration of the relationships between population and devolved politics, suggesting a direction for policy‐relevant research to which population geographers could make a major contribution.     

“普世价值”的意识形态陷阱及其批判

“普世价值”的是非论争已成为当今热门话题。“普世价值”作为一种社会思潮和思想体系,其理论根源是抽象的人性论,它以非政治话语否定我国的主流意识形态,试图取消马克思主义在我国的主导地位,在本质上表现为西方的话语霸权及其思想渗透的新方式,由此具有明显的意识形态色彩。     

应给“民营经济”正名

该文指出,目前国内所称谓的“民营经济”或“民营企业”,其实质是指私有经济或私人企业。“民营”这一概念是我国由计划经济向市场经济转轨过程中特定阶段的产物,它模糊了产权关系,缺乏科学的内涵界定,并给一些人借机浑水摸鱼提供了可乘之机。因此,在现阶段,应给“民营经济”正名。     

The "Mouse That Roared": Agenda Setting in Canadian Pesticides Politics

Issue redefinition and venue shopping have been identified as key strategies for enacting agenda and policy change, but much work remains to be done in elaborating these processes. I argue that an important aspect of issue redefinition involves shifting not only the image of an issue but also the bases for considering those issues—what I call policy principles. Policy principles are the core values, beliefs, or guidelines attached to policies that help direct decision making. The emergence and acceptance of new principles by the public and policymakers can be a vital source of policy change, at times having far greater consequences for policy than redefining an issue. Venue shopping is also a multifaceted undertaking involving efforts by policy entrepreneurs and advocacy groups to keep issues out of venues they would rather not participate in as well as move decision making to new arenas. Moreover, while the literature suggests that shifting venues is usually a sensible strategy, sometimes venue shopping can backfire. A case study of the municipal movement to restrict the nonessential use of lawn and garden pesticides in Canada illustrates these theoretical points and shows the applicability of agenda setting models to contexts outside the United States.     

对外开放政策在新疆的成功实践

十一届三中全会以来,对外开放成为我国的重要方针政策。在党中央、国务院的亲切关怀和大力支持下,新疆充分发挥自身独特的地缘、区位、历史、人文、资源等优势,创造性贯彻落实对外开放政策,经过30年的探索与实践,成功地完成了从反修防修的国防前哨到我国向西开放重要门户的历史性巨变。据统计,2008年新疆出口贸易额在全国排名第11位,位居中西部地区省区市之首,边贸规模也在全国沿边省区中名列第一。同时,对外开放由经济领域逐步扩展到教育、文化、卫生、科技等领域,并对这些领域产生了广泛影响。     

The Politics of Greek Environmental Policy

This article serves a dual purpose. Its substantive goal is to provide an account of Greek environmental policy formation and implementation over the last twenty years. Its theoretical goal is to examine the relative impacts of specific political factors, as contrasted with aggregate levels of socioeconomic and institutional development, in shaping environmental policy in an industrializing country. such as Greece. More specifically, it is argued that certain aspects of state-society relations and of the internal organization of the Greek state are frequently the major reasons behind the country's difficulties in formulating implementable preventive policy and in implementing adequately constructed policy.     

我国特大城市协调性发展的创新模式探究

改革开放以来,工业化与城镇化成为我国经济快速增长和社会全面发展的主要驱动力。城市现代化与交通运输网络体系的建立促进了城乡一体化发展,缓解了城乡二元结构矛盾。但由于我国人口众多,基础设施建设不足,城市发展面临的主客观因素复杂,发展协调性问题日益突出。大城市尤其是百万人口以上的特大城市,城市盲目蔓延,生态环境污染与破坏严重,发展严重不协调。针对我国特大城市发展协调性问题,对其发展背景、挑战、研究的必要性和创新模式构建等根本性问题进行初步的探索研究,以全面促进我国城市健康可持续发展。     

我国出境旅游发展水平的国际比较研究

出境旅游市场是我国当前三大旅游市场中增长最快的市场,对出境旅游发展水平与阶段的正确认识是理论研究与政策实践的基础。基于全球44个主要的国际旅游客源国家与地区的1980年至2004年出境旅游及相关数据,本文采用截面回归与面板数据模型进行的研究发现：随着人均GDP与人均国民总收入的增长,一国的出境旅游率将会呈现指数形态的上升,在现价美元16000元左右将会出现出境旅游的爆发性增长;但一国的出境旅游率存在大国效应,人口规模与出境旅游率呈负相关关系;研究结果还显示,只有经济发展到达一定阶段后,经济增长速度对出境旅游增长的影响才会明显表现出来。     

Minding the Undertow: Assessing Water "Privatization" in Cuba

Abstract:  The privatization and commercialization of water has proven to be one of the most controversial policy developments of the past 20 years. Largely associated with the neoliberalization of the world economy, it comes as a surprise to many that the socialist government of Cuba signed a 25-year contract with a Spanish multinational in 2000 to manage the supply of water in Havana. This paper provides an historical context for water reforms in the country and the first comprehensive study of this little-known contract. Based on key interviews and primary documentation we argue that there are no easy explanations for why the contract was signed, or whether it has achieved its objectives. There are, however, interesting lessons to be learned for public–private partnerships elsewhere in the world, and insights into the changing fabric of socialism in Cuba.