UNCERTAIN INCOME AND HOUSING PRICE AND LOCATION CHOICE*

ABSTRACT. In this paper, we adapt recent developments in uncertainty modeling to the location choice paradigm. In particular, we analyze the impact of income and housing price uncertainty on housing demand and location demand characteristics in a partial equilibrium framework. We begin by recognizing that housing consumption cannot readily be altered in response to changes in income and price. We find that income and house price risk affect housing and location demands in different ways. Additionally, the spatial characteristics of price risk also affect consumer housing and location demands. For example, if housing price risk is lower farther from the central city, housing demand can be greater in those locations even with the higher transportation cost. Thus, over some locations, the expected price gradient could be positive.     

基于ELES模型的城乡居民国内旅游消费结构实证分析

本文依据ELES理论,利用2002—2008年的数据,从边际消费倾向、消费投向、收入弹性及价格弹性四个方面对我国城乡居民国内旅游消费中的食、住、行、游、购、娱等9类消费的结构进行了实证分析,主要结论如下。（1）城镇居民的国内旅游边际消费倾向为0．0636,农村居民为0．1174;在9类单项旅游消费中,购物和其它服务的边际消费倾向最高,消费投向主要为购物、其它服务和长途交通。（2）农村居民各单项旅游消费需求的收入弹性均大于l,城镇居民基本旅游消费需求的收入弹性小于l,非基本旅游消费需求和餐饮消费需求的收入弹性大于1。（3）城乡居民各项旅游消费需求的自价格弹性较大,互价格弹性较小;城镇居民非基本旅游消费需求和餐饮消费需求的自价格弹性大于1,农村居民各项旅游消费需求的自价格弹性均大于1。     

新时期国内旅游抗周期性及双对数需求弹性分析

2000年以来,我国人均收入超过1000美元,国内旅游进入快速增长期,呈现抗周期性的新特征。本文在形态指标分析的基础上,界定了旅游业抗周期的概念及两种表现形式。相关统计数据实证检验发现,2003年SARS危机后,2004年国内旅游强力反弹,2009年国民经济进入低谷期后国内旅游率先恢复,形成一种受短期波动影响较小的惯性增长。同时,本文依据1994年～2012年时间序列数据建立了双对数模型,分析全国及城市居民国内旅游收入弹性和价格弹性,结果显示,收入需求弹性大于价格需求弹性,收入增长对居民国内旅游的推动作用大于价格的限制,形成了“刚性”的旅游需求,这是新时期国内旅游迅猛增长及抗周期性形成的根本原因。     

需求弹性对产业活动的指示功能研究

需求弹性对产业活动有很强的指示功能。围绕需求弹性不同的商品的需求(量)对经济变量的依存关系,研究如何运用需求弹性指导产业活动行为有重要意义。本文概述了需求弹性的数学基础,结合需求弹性释义,从价格弹性、需求收入弹性和交叉(价格)弹性等方面讨论了需求弹性对产业活动的指示功能。     

Housing Market Dynamics Under Stochastic Growth: An Application to the Housing Market in Boulder, Colorado

Recent housing-market studies have modeled slow stock and price adjustment with some success. However, the empirical procedures used in these models break down if housing stocks or prices are driven by stochastic growth. In this paper I suggest an error-correction model for analyzing housing supply and demand under conditions of stochastic growth for a regional housing market. The model is applied to the housing market in Boulder, Colorado from 1981 through 1995—a period of rapid growth in housing values in the area. Long-run housing supply and demand are shown to be inelastic with respect to changes in the price of housing. The results indicate that developers respond more accurately to housing-market disequilibrium attributable to supply-side disturbances than to disturbances generated by changes in the demand for housing. On the other hand, price appreciation is driven primarily by demand disturbances.     

SPATIAL HEDONIC MODELS OF AIRPORT NOISE,PROXIMITY, AND HOUSING PRICES*

ABSTRACT Despite the refrain that housing prices are determined by “location, location, and location,” few studies of airport noise and housing prices have incorporated spatial econometric techniques. We compare various spatial econometric models and estimation methods in a hedonic price framework to examine the impact of noise on 2003 housing prices near the Atlanta airport. Spatial effects are best captured by a model including both spatial autocorrelation and autoregressive parameters estimated by a generalized moments approach. In our preferred model, houses located in an area in which noise disrupts normal activities (defined by a day–night sound level of 70–75 decibels) sell for 20.8 percent less than houses located where noise does not disrupt normal activities (defined by a day–night sound level below 65 decibels). The inclusion of spatial effects magnifies the negative price impacts of airport noise. Finally, after controlling for noise, houses farther from the airport sell for less; the price elasticity with respect to distance is −0.15, implying that airport proximity is an amenity.     

Optimizing the Spatial Structure of the Agricultural Production Function

Important characteristics of spatial agricultural production functions are derived by introducing a non‐negative curvilinear spatial demand function for production input intensities. Given the usual neoclassical rationale assumptions of spatial demand for capital and labor inputs under competitive environment of farming in developing agricultural economies, the optimal production levels are determined by optimizing spatial demand for production inputs. Decreasing price‐to‐transport costs ratio (that is, decrease in the prices of capital goods or increase in freight rates) and increasing wage‐to‐travel costs ratio (that is, increase in labor wages or decrease in the travel rate) expand the limits of the (spatial) optimal boundary of the demand for agricultural capital goods and labor input respectively. These effects occur on account of the operation of (positive) spatial price gradient and (negative) wage‐gradient in the market region. It may be noted that elasticities of demand for production factors are spatially variant and have significant effects on the alterations in the structure of agricultural production. However, the spatial optimal solution of production has a complicated relationship with them. The price elasticity has negative and wage elasticity has positive spatial gradients in the market region. Farmers located in the periphery of the market region are not much affected by the proportionate changes occurring in the prices of agricultural capital goods but are more sensitive to the proportional changes in labor wages. Because of a decreasing trend in capital input demand and increase in labor input with distance from the market, capital‐product diminishes with a decreasing rate and labor‐product increases with an increasing rate in the spatial structure of agricultural production. As a result, capital‐labor ratio falls toward zero, which raises profit rate per unit of capital investment especially in the outer part of the market region. The equilibria of optimal production with price elasticity as well as of capital intensity with labor employment (that is, capital‐labor ratio as unity) determine spatial limits of the optimal production zone which is shifted outward subject to the provision of cheap transportation, stabilizing market prices and/or increasing wage rate at the market center. It will help in extending outwardly the optimal spatial limits of capital investment and will mobilize capital resources of farmers in the periphery for efficient and competitive capital‐dominated farming.     

THE ROLE OF INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE SUPPLY OF HOUSING*

ABSTRACT As the housing stock in a city is duplicated, developers must devote greater amounts of resources to the provision of infrastructure. If the production of infrastructure is characterized by decreasing returns to scale, this will cause the price of developable land to increase. The conditions under which an upward-sloping supply curve for housing will result are discussed. Using cross-sectional data for U.S. cities from 1973 to 1982, it is shown that land prices fail to increase with the quantity of construction and that the price elasticity of the supply of housing is infinite.     

THE EXCHANGEABILITY OF HEDONIC PROPERTY PRICE STUDIES*

ABSTRACT. Observations drawn from multiple markets are essential to the construction of indices of housing costs and to measures of demand for housing attributes. It is not evident when multiple markets exist or whether such markets exist for some attributes but not for others. We test for multiple markets by using Bayesian methods to assess the transferability (random exchangeability) of entire hedonic price expressions from one site and time to another, the transferability of hedonic price functions for particular attributes, and the degrees of similarity that hedonic price functions must have in order to be transferable. In our illustrations, price functions for structural housing attributes are generally transferable; prices for neighborhood attributes are not. Therefore, in our illustrations, the desired price indices and demand functions should be estimable for neighborhood attributes, but not for structural ones.     

城镇可持续生活供水价格研究--以陕西省关中地区为例

本分析了关中地区城镇生活水价现状和问题,得出了城镇生活水价是不可持续的结论,即水价低于供水生产成本,水价结构不合理。在探讨可持续水价的调整原则的基础上,提出了价格杠杆调节关中生活水价的措施,包括：逐步把水价调整到成本水价以上的水平,并调整水价结构,使之能反映供水成本和水资源价值;实行累进加价制度,对超定额用水征收高水价;实施季节性水价等。     

基于时变参数模型的中国房地产投资研究

房地产投资能够直接带动国民经济增长,但发展过快也会给经济带来负效应,协调好房地产投资与国民经济发展的关系尤为重要。本文首先综述国内外相关研究成果,发现现有定量研究无法真实反映房地产业本身结构的变化;其次,建立时变参数模型,对房地产投资与国民经济发展之间的关系进行了实证研究;最后得出研究结论和政策建议。本文的研究结论:一是房地产投资对GDP拉动作用显著;二是房地产投资受GDP、国内银行贷款以及利率的影响各不相同。与现有研究文献相比较,本文在研究视角和方法上均有-定的突破。     

HOUSING CONSUMPTION DECLINES WITH INCOME IN THE OPEN‐CITY MODEL: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

This paper demonstrates that the standard urban model (SUM) has important, previously unknown, and rather counterintuitive predictions about the determinants of housing consumption in cities. For example, the SUM predicts that, as higher wages in the central business district prompt city growth, the housing space per household falls, that is, rising income is associated with falling housing consumption. Empirical testing using a specially constructed panel data set of U.S. cities, confirms this prediction. When city size, income, and housing price rise, housing space per household falls.     

HOUSE PRICE IMPACTS OF RACIAL,INCOME, EDUCATION,AND AGE NEIGHBORHOOD SEGREGATION

We study housing prices and neighborhood segregation. We advance the literature by (1) studying not just racial segregation like previous studies, but also segregation by age, income, and education level, (2) using a finer unit of geography to construct segregation measures, (3) incorporating spatial statistics, and (4) separating segregation effects from underlying population level effects. We find race segregation is positively related to house prices, with an elasticity of 0.19. In contrast, income and educational segregation reduce housing values, with elasticities of ?0.23 and ?0.21. By comparison, house age has an elasticity of ?0.15. Age segregation is not generally capitalized.     

STATE REVENUE ELASTICITY AND EXPENDITURE GROWTH

Recent analyses and theories of public choice suggest faster public sector expansion in states with highly elastic revenue structures. This paper estimates the contribution of elasticity of tax revenues to the growth of expenditures in the 50 American states since 1960, based on elasticity measures for state revenue sources compiled by the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, an index of state tax structural change, and controls for federal aid to states, population increase, and per capita growth in real income. Results for 1960-1970 show a small positive relationship between revenue elasticity and expenditure growth, but this becomes weak and negative for 1970-1976. Spending has increased most in states with the least elastic revenue sources; these states have made considerable changes in tax laws, while states with elastic revenue sources have been more likely to cut taxes than to increase spending. Federal aid, rather than tax elasticity, is the best predictor of state expenditure growth, while legislative changes in tax structure have enabled states to keep pace with rising demand for revenue due to growth in population and real income.     

Israeli Settlement in Occupied Territories and its Impact on Housing Prices in Israel

The real price of housing in Israel rose 132 percent from 1959 through 1988. This paper investigates the factors standing behind the temporal movement of the real price of housing. Special emphasise is given to the role of government policies that encouraged settlement in occupied territories. A static model of the housing market is formulated and estimated, which takes into account the interrelation between the housing market in Israel proper and the emerging market in the occupied territories. In addition to confirming the role of demand shifters in accounting for the increase in real housing prices, it is found that settlement in occupied territories was an important moderating factor. According to our estimates, settlement in occupied territories accounts for a moderation of 1 percent in the annual rate of price appreciation during the Labor government, and 2.4 percent during the Likud government. These figures are in line with our expectations in view of the different policies pursued by the rival governments.     

A MODEL OF URBAN HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR WITH LEISURE CHOICE

This paper provides a complete comparative-static analysis of the simplest model of urban household behavior that incorporates time explicitly. Results involving the housing-price function and the effects on housing consumption and location (radial distance from the CBD) of exogenous changes in preferences for housing, housing price, and money costs of transportation are the same as in models not incorporating time explicitly. In addition, it is found that housing consumption and location are negatively related to commuting time, positively related to nonwage income, and ambiguously related (both a priori and empirically, for reasonable values of the relevant variables) to the wage rate.     

VALUING ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY: A SPACE‐BASED STRATEGY*

ABSTRACT This paper develops and applies a space‐based strategy for overcoming the general problem of deriving the implicit demand for nonmarket goods. It focuses specifically on evaluating one form of environmental quality, distance from Environmental Protection Agency designated environmental hazards, via the single‐family housing market in the Puget Sound region of Washington State. A spatial two‐stage hedonic price analysis is used to: (i) estimate the marginal implicit price of distance from air release sites, hazardous waste generators, hazardous waste handlers, superfund sites, and toxic release sites; and (ii) estimate a series of implicit demand functions describing the relationship between the price of distance and the quantity consumed. The analysis, which represents an important step forward in the valuation of environmental quality, reveals that the information needed to identify second‐stage demand functions is hidden right in plain sight—hanging in the aether of the regional housing market.     

TRAFFIC EXTERNALITIES AND SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSE PRICES*

ABSTRACT. This study is the first to lend empirical support to the common belief that traffic intensity affects property values. Using a standard hedonic pricing model, this paper investigates the price effects on housing of traffic within a neighborhood. Results using data on single-family housing transactions for two different locations in a medium-sized city show a substantial negative price effect of traffic externalities. The magnitude of the effect is shown to be location specific.     

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF HOUSING TRAIT PRICES IN A THIRD WORLD CITY*

ABSTRACT. A first step in the process of economic analysis of housing markets in Third World cities is the econometric analysis of housing trait prices. The information on market price of housing is basic to the derivation/estimation of other market parameters such as housing demand and supply elasticities. In addition, housing trait prices constitute invaluable inputs into the analysis of effects of government housing programs. This paper presents estimates of housing trait prices in a Third World city housing market, the city of Jos in Nigeria. Nonlinear stochastic specification of a policy constrained hedonic price function is presented as an unbiased estimator of housing trait prices. The Box-Cox statistical procedure was employed in the paper to obtain hedonic regression coefficients which are the parameters needed to compute the average prices evaluated both at the mean of each trait and at their margins. The potential uses of housing trait prices for policy analysis are discussed briefly.     

THE COMPARATIVE STATIC RESPONSE OF RENTAL HOUSING TO A PRICE CHANGE: INFLATION AND GOVERNMENT POLICY*

ABSTRACT. A two period consumer choice model is presented in which housing is treated as a quality differentiated good. The short-run comparative static response of rental housing to a price change is examined via an example, an exogenous increase in the inflation rate. Two stylized facts are alternately used; interest income is taxed, and interest rate ceilings are imposed on small savings deposits. The partial equilibrium distributional impact of inflation, in the context of rental housing markets, is also discussed.