A Framework for Exploring Urban Retail Discontinuities. 探索城市零售业不连续性的框架

A key area in the analysis of urban structural evolution is identifying discontinuities. Effective analysis could improve long‐term forecasting and provide a better understanding of how to steer an urban system toward a desirable future state. We use a simple aggregate retail model to demonstrate an algorithm for identifying discontinuities in model parameter space. Explorations of retailing in both Greater London and South Yorkshire in the United Kingdom illustrate how understanding a system's potential for discontinuity can provide insights for both policy makers and retail businesses. The Harris and Wilson model, described in the section so‐named, is used as a simple archetype to illustrate the new framework. This model can be developed in a straightforward way to incorporate further refinement. In “ Executing the model and visualizing the results ,” we describe a single model run and in “ Investigating discontinuities ,” we explain our framework for detecting and analyzing discontinuities. “ Identifying discontinuities in the London retail system ” shows the results of applying this methodology to the Greater London retail system, and in “ Practical applications ,” we explore the policy applications for this technique as related to the decline of town centers in the South Yorkshire retail system. Some concluding comments are offered in “ Conclusions .”     

Multiagent Systems and the Dynamics of a Settlement System

In order to simulate the evolution of a system of settlements with a dynamic model, many processes must be integrated: the spatial aggregation of population, the complexification of urban activities, and the increasing hierarchical differentiation of settlements. The model must also simulate the progressive structuration of the settlement system through a growing variety and enlarged range of interactions between its elements. “Multiagent systems” provides a flexible modeling method for dealing with the multiple spatial interactions of cooperation and competition and relations that generate and regulate the evolution of a settlement system. Its principles are described and applied to building an evolutionary model, including a simulation tool. The model combines economic and spatial rules to produce birth, growth, decline, and functional diversification of the towns. The “urban transition” from an agrarian settlement system toward a hierarchical system of trade- and manufacturing-oriented towns and cities can be simulated.     

THE SIMULATION OF URBAN SYSTEM DYNAMICS IN ATLANTIC CANADA, 1951–1991

A dynamic urban model is used to study the post-war evolution of the Atlantic Canada urban system. The computer-based simulation model is calibrated for the period 1951-86 and then employed to predict the 1991 population of each cma and ca within the system. The simulation results show that, to a large extent, the evolution of the system can be understood in terms of endogenous system dynamics rather than exogenous events. Specifically, competition among the cities of the region is a significant factor in the urban system evolution. The high degree of abstraction of the model means that data requirements for application are minimal, and the calibration procedure is relatively simple. The successful predictions show that the model can yield useful results in spite of its simplicity.
Un modèle dynamique est employé afin ďétudier ľévolution du système urbain de la région atlantique du Canada depuis 1951. Le modèle de simulation est ďabord calibré sur la periode 1951-86, et ensuite utilisé pour générer une prévision de la population en 1991 de chaque rmr et ar dans la région. Les résultats montrent que ľévolution démographique du système peut être expliqué, pour la plupart, par la dynamique inhérente du système. Plus précisement, le processus de concurrence économique et démographique entre les villes de la région est décisif; les événements exogène sont ďune moindre importance. Le modèle est plutot simple et abstrait; par conséquent, son application exige relativement peu de donnés, et le procédé calibration est relativement simple. La qualité des prévisions déographiques indique que ce genre de modèle, malgrésa simplicité peut êre utile.     

THIS IS NOT AMERICA: EMBEDDING THE COGNITIVE‐CULTURAL URBAN ECONOMY

The aim of this article is to broaden the epistemological basis for investigating the current shift to cognitive‐cultural economies and the resurgence of cities and its socio‐spatial articulation. The point of departure here is that the drivers of the structural changes are indeed more or less ubiquitous, but are played out in different national institutional and urban contexts resulting in potentially diverging cognitive‐cultural economies. Four main drivers of change after 1980 are distinguished. The first is the rise of a new technological paradigm based on digital technology. The second is the thrust towards deregulation and privatization as planks of the neo‐liberal political programme. The third is the intensification of all kinds of linkages between regions across the globe. The fourth driver constitutes the processes of individualization and increasing reflexivity that have fragmented consumer markets. By identifying distinct filters which might shape and mould the impact of these more general drivers on concrete urban areas, a comprehensive framework is presented that can be used to analyse and compare the trajectories of cities while linking them to a larger narrative of societal change. A central line of reasoning is that agglomeration economies – pivotal in Allen Scott's analysis of the emergence of a cognitive‐cultural economy – are themselves embedded in concrete social and institutional contexts which impact on how they are played out. To make this point, we build upon Richard Whitley's business systems. Given this institutional diversity, we expect that various institutional contexts will generate different cognitive‐cultural economies.     

Romanian Spatial Planning System: Post-Communist Dynamics of Change and Europeanization Processes

This paper addresses the post-communist history of Romania's spatial planning system with the two-fold aim of describing its evolution and identifying the role played by the EU in this process. Taking as a starting point the contradiction between the formal goals of Romanian spatial planning and the actual spatial development patterns, the paper proposes a contextualized analysis of the system's changes. It complements the focus on the formal technical dimension with a look at the broader socio-political context, driving forces and path dependencies. It identifies five episodes within this time frame and argues that they were catalysed by factors outside the immediate technical dimension of spatial planning, such as the changes in the Romanian political scene, the dynamics in the governance and planning culture, the evolution of the economy, the actual development patterns and most notably, by the process of Europeanization. While often the role of the EU is taken for granted as a general positive force for Romania, the paper makes instead the distinction between the use of Europeanization as a rhetorical external driving force and the real changes brought about by the process.     

城市系统演化的复杂性研究

城市演化是由复杂多样的动力和主体推动的,受全球、国家和地方尺度的多重影响,表现出复杂的演化规律和特征。笔者认为城市系统演化模式与过程的研究需要发展一个基于复杂性理论的跨学科的分析框架。本文首先提出一个城市系统演化的概念模型,然后运用层次理论分析了城市系统演化的复杂相互作用,论述了城市系统演化的组成异质性、时空复杂性、决策复杂性等复杂性表征,最后讨论了城市系统演化的各种复杂规律。     

Staying on Top: Why is Munich so Resilient and Successful?

This article seeks to explain why Munich, Germany's most economically successful city in recent decades, has proved so resilient despite various challenges and shocks. It begins by discussing different theoretical understandings of resilience and our methodological approach which builds on complex adaptive systems and evolutionary economic geography perspectives. Using a blend of historical analysis and in-depth investigation of the dynamics of one of the city's most innovative clusters, we argue that Munich's resilience essentially stems from the complex interplay of Germany's distinctive political history and federal system, which has promoted multi-level governance and a strong urban system, longstanding city regional leadership and entrepreneurialism, Munich's inherent assets and diverse economy and the combined strength of its many knowledge institutions, innovation system and networks. The evidence suggests that historic, structural and locational factors and agglomeration effects largely explain Munich's rise to prominence but that sustained urban and regional leadership and effective governance and policy especially in the technological, scientific and educational spheres coupled with intelligent urban planning have played an increasingly important role in sustaining its competitiveness.     

Supply-Side Urbanization? A Pooled Time Series Analysis

Tests of Tolley's supply-driven urban growth model for expanding sets of countries for time periods varying from 1831–1980 to 1951–1980 lead to its rejection in most contexts. The exception is for higher-income market economies, where supply-driven and demand-driven determinants of urban growth are shown to alternate with long-wave periodicity: During epochs of structural transformation following stagflation crises, supply-driven determinants dominate; during periods of technological diffusion following deflationary depressions, demand factors come to the fore. But for middle- and low-income nations, whatever the cross-section and timespan, Tolley's hypothesis is not supported: Coefficients have the wrong sign, suggesting that urban growth is greatest when there are the greatest relative gains in rural productivity, but are statistically insignificant. The need is demonstrated for an urban growth theory that is substantially broader than normally has been modeled, with dynamics that are firmly grounded in an understanding of the periodic structure of economic macrohistory.     

Establishing a Market-orientated Urban Planning System after State Socialism: The Case of Tallinn

The article examines the development of the urban planning system in Tallinn from 1991, when Estonia re-established its independence from the Soviet Union, until 2004. The planning laws and planning documents are analysed from the point of view of what kind of tools they provide for the public authority to intervene in urban development. It is argued that a liberal ad hoc urban planning that was established in the early 1990s is currently gradually being replaced by a more regulatory system where the rights of landowners are increasingly yet not always comprehensively defined in advance. Nonetheless, despite the recent revival of planning, the market still primarily dictates Tallinn's urban development.     

The Shadow Field of Reindeer Management: A Case Study from Finland

Abstract

This article applies the analytical concept of shadow field in relation to reindeer management, to explain why some herders and reindeer herding cooperatives do not adhere to government regulations on herd size. The underlying processes and structures related to reindeer numbers are exemplified through two case studies of two Finnish reindeer herding cooperatives, which for several years have exceeded the total allowable quota of reindeer. The case studies reveal a different reality of reindeer management, which functions according to a logic and agenda not always understood by the State authorities or incorporated into the management decisions. This reality is the outcome of anomalies in the official reindeer management system, including the system's disclosure of herders from the decision-making process, the system's provision of self-determination and self-monitoring regarding the organisation of reindeer herding to the cooperatives, the system's weak external control and a subsidy system which promotes reindeer ownership instead of production. Combined, these anomalies enable and encourage the formation of a shadow field of reindeer management. This paper uses as its theoretical framework Pierre Bourdieu's theory of practice, and focuses especially on the key notion of field and shadow field in addressing the Common Pool Resource discussion related to reindeer herding.     

The Augustan Temple and Forum of the Colony of Barcino: A 90 Degree Turn

The Augustan Roman temple at Barcino has been a key element during the last 60 years in the research of the colony's urban development. Its peculiar elongated and narrow plan, first proposed in 1835, and its location at the highest point of the ancient city have dictated our understanding of the urban layout of Barcino by conditioning the shape of the city's forum and affecting the interpretation of the archaeological excavations carried out in the area since then. This paper proposes an alternative plan of the temple, based on data drawn from recent archaeological excavations, topographical analysis, typological comparisons, and the study of written sources. Our alternative hypothesis for the temple permits an in‐depth reinterpretation of the plan of the forum and the evolution of the urban plan.     

珠江三角洲巨型区域空间组织与空间结构演变研究

选取1990年、1995年、2000年,2005年和2010年珠江三角洲各城市数据,构建综合指标体系,利用全局主成分分析测算珠三角空间组织格局演变过程,提取珠三角空间组织格局演变的城市经济、物质空间和人口空间因子。研究发现:①珠三角空间组织格局经历"单中心"向"双中心"的演变过程,并开始呈现多中心网络化趋势;②城市区域空间组织经历缓速演变、加速演变和转型演变三个阶段,效率由低级向中、高级形态变化;③从全球化、区域化、市场化、城市化和分权化等维度来解释珠三角城市区域空间组织和效率格局演变的动力机制。建议从增强城市竞争力、推进空间均衡和加强资源环境协调等角度引导珠三角空间组织格局演变。     

EVALUATING THE AGGREGATE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF CANADIAN METROPOLITAN AREAS

Few attempts have been made to develop and test a conceptual framework for the comparative analysis of urban spatial structure and growth. This paper offers one aggregate approach as well as a series of empirical tests based on Canada's 27 largest urban areas. Six composite indices are introduced: population densities, rates of change, intraurban population redistribution, mobility rates, incidence of low-income populations, and degree of social polarization. Regression analyses reveal that differences among urban areas in spatial patterning and structural change are consistent with the hypothesized effects of city size, age, transport usage, social heterogeneity, production base, and physical setting. Yet immense regional and intraurban diversity remains. No single model of urban structure is sufficient to capture this diversity. On enregistre peu de tentatives pour mettre au point et tester un cadre conceptuel qui puisse servir à I'analyse comparative de structure spatiale et de croissance urbaine. Get article offre une approche g/oba/e ainsi qu'une série d'analyses empiriques basées sur les 27 territoires urbains canadiens les plus grande. Six indices composes servent aà l'analyse: densité de population et taux de changement de ces densités, redistribution et taux de mobilité de la population intra-urbaine, incidence de revenus faibles et importance de la polarisation sociale. Les analyses de régression démontrent que les différences dans l'arrangement des espaces et le changement des structures entre les zones urbaines sont en accord avec les effets supposés de taille urbaine, d'âge, d'utilisation du transport, d'hétérogénéité sociale, de base de production et de cadre physique. Cependant, une très grande diversité régionale et intraurbaine de-meure, II n'existe pas un seul modèle de structure urbaine capable d'englober cette diversité.     

Techniques for the Recreational Evaluation of an Area

Because of the problem of factor weights in any integral evaluation of landscapes for recreational purposes, a systems approach is proposed for classifying factors in terms of relative significance. Internal and external landscape structures are distinguished. Internal structure involves the organization of the landscape, including components and their natural interactions. External structure reflects the landscape system's relations with other systems, either adjacent landscapes or systems of human activities. For purposes of recreational evaluation, landscape elements must be differentiated into classes in terms of their impact on recreation: active elements, favoring particular recreational uses; limiting elements; compensatory elements. The state of recreational resources must also take account of current economic use of the land. Some types of economic uses combine more readily with recreational uses than others. The systems technique is illustrated with reference to the Moscow region and the Issyk-Kul' basin in Central Asia.     

Finance,Home Building,and Urban Residential Structuring

Abstract: The aim of this article is to improve our understanding of finance in home building by introducing an actor perspective in structure‐oriented theories of capital circulation. David Harvey's three‐circuit theory, with fixity‐motion processes and (de‐/re)‐territorialisation, is taken as the starting point. The analysis is based on a case study of Norwegian home‐building finance, outlining the emerging structure of housing and finance under the Norwegian version of neoliberalism; comprising deregulation and re‐regulation phases. The article delineates today's home‐building finance, and identifies large banks, small banks, large investment funds and small investment funds as structural actors operating within actual fixity and motion processes, causing a distinct territorialisation of urban landscapes, as exemplified by gentrification.     

Turkey's Emergence as a Geopolitical Power Broker

In a framing essay commenting on a symposium devoted to Turkey's role in a dynamic geopolitical world system, a prominent American political geographer presents the case for Turkey's evolution from regional power within that system to a key geopolitical balancing agent, reflecting its pivotal location within Eurasia. After first exploring the implications of the collapse of the USSR for U.S.-Turkey relations, he critically assesses the ruling Turkish political party's (AKP) recent foreign policy formulation of Turkey as a leader/role model of its own "civilizational basin" (Middle Eastern and Central Eurasian countries). Citing a range of linguistic, cultural, ethnic, and religious differences between Turkey and the Arab lands, he argues that Turkey's true civilizational basin is limited to Central Asia, where Russia holds geopolitical primacy, and advocates a broader framing of Turkey's geopolitical orientation as reflecting location, economics, oil, water, and natural interests. Such a conceptualization suggests that Turkey's pivotal role as balancing power may not be broadly defined as a bridge between Europe and Eurasia, but rather as a bridge between the EU and Russia. Also, the country's status as a role model may be more applicable for regional powers sandwiched between great powers than for emerging Islamic democracies per se.     

Citizen Emperor. Napoleon in Power

Abstract

The recent Italian elections have taken place under a new proportional system, but have confirmed and even strengthened the main trends already at work since the beginning of Italy's political transition. The center-left coalition has won by the slightest margin, thus ensuring the third alternation in power since 1994. The system's extreme competitiveness underscores its full-fledged bipolar format, the eclipse of center parties, and the continuing electoral stagnation and political integration of extreme left and right. These trends coexist with a party system fragmentation whose level is within the standard of other European systems of moderate pluralism and this fragmentation is, moreover, kept at bay by the coordination ensured by the majority bonus seats provided through the electoral law. At the same time, the main parties show persistently low levels of structural consolidation, that tend to hinder the stability and effectiveness of coalition cabinets. This problem might paradoxically have been sharpened by systemic competitiveness through a negative impact on coalitional discipline and the maximization of destabilizing effects of the smallest changes in electoral and parliamentary behavior.     

制度变迁与中国城市的发展及空间结构的历史演变

我国的城市发展水平同经济发展水平的偏离,说明对城市发展及其空间结构演变分析不能仅局限在物质经济领域,需要我们寻求影响城市发展及其空间结构变化的新因素一制度因素,把制度作为影响城市发展及其空间结构的一个主要的变量,来对此加以解释。为此,本首先构建了“制度变迁一城市发展变化”的理论框架,然后用该理论从宏观和微观两个方面来检验1949-1998年间制度变迁对城市发展及其空间结构的影响。与西方国家的以市场经济为主要动力驱动型的城市发展模式不同,中国城市的发展及其空间结构的演变在很大程度上是制度变迁而诱致的结果。但不同的制度对城市数量增长、组织体系及空间布局和对城市空间结构演变的作用力度又不尽相同。改革开放后,由于制度变迁带来的激励作用,中国城市获得了快速发展,城市空间结构快速变化。但与此同时,中国城市化的发展水平与相同发展条件下的世界城市化水平的差距却在拉大。而且随着市场经济体制的逐步完善,影响城市增长及空间结构的演变力量的因素越来越趋于分散化,制度变迁对城市发展所带来的激励作用正在弱化。为适应新世纪我国城市发展的战略目标,需要进行体制创新,为中国城市的发展及其空间结构的演变提供新的制度支持。