A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.     

Hopes,dreams and anxieties: India's one-child families

While rapid fertility decline in India in the last two decades has received considerable attention, much of the discourse has focused on a decline in high parity births. However, this paper finds that, almost hidden from the public gaze, a small but significant segment of the Indian population has begun the transition to extremely low fertility. Among the urban, upper income, educated, middle class, it is no longer unusual to find families stopping at one child, even when this child is a girl. Using data from the India Human Development Survey of 2004–2005, we examine the factors that may lead some families to stop at a single child. We conclude that the motivations for this very low fertility are likely to be a more extreme form of those for low fertility rather than reflecting the qualitative change in ideologies and worldviews that is hypothesized to accompany very low fertility during the second demographic transition.     

社会变革与当代农村婚姻家庭变动研究的回顾和思考

文章着重就开展社会变革与当代农村婚姻家庭变动研究的意义 ,迄今这方面研究的状态、不足 ,分析视角等作了初步考察。指出 1 940～ 1 990年是中国农村社会变革最剧烈的时期 ,农民的婚姻家庭行为所受触动之大是史无前例的。目前完整经历过社会变革影响的人口群体和调查对象日渐萎缩和减少 ,因而非常有必要加大对这一研究的投入。     

The State Legislature in American History: A Review Essay

Abstract

The author discusses a very rich resource for studying the Great Depression: the Censuses of Manufactures from 1929, 1931, 1933, and 1935. He highlights the strengths and weaknesses of this source in terms of the information available on the schedules and the quality of the data. In terms of information collected, these censuses compare favorably with the modern Census of Manufactures with some limitations. The author also draws on some published studies to argue that the records held at the National Archives are (in general) complete enumerations of the establishments existing at the time. He then conducts tests for the presence of measurement error and finds a limited role.     

Masculinities in Asia: A Review Essay

Abstract:

Masculinity as an analytical concept has received limited attention in historical and cultural studies of Asia, and particularly of South and Southeast Asia. Only a small number of works produced in South and Southeast Asian studies address the historical construction and evolution of masculinities in the regions and even fewer offer in-depth inquiries into the extent to which historical forms of masculinity governed social relations. The specific dynamics of the relationship between ideologies and the ways that manhood is interpreted, experienced and performed in daily life in the past and in present times remain underexplored. This essay reviews three recent publications that demonstrate that masculinity has been crucial to ideologies and techniques of rule in colonial, national and globalised contexts and, as such, needs to be placed at the centre of analyses of empire, nation and globalisation. It directs attention to promising areas for future comparative research on masculinities in Asia.     

Second demographic transition or aspirations in transition: an exploratory analysis of lowest-low fertility in Kolkata,India

Fertility transition occurred during the 1970s in Kolkata (erstwhile Calcutta), capital of the state of West Bengal, India, and has remained persistently at the low fertility level. Fertility rate in Kolkata attained its lowest-low level in the beginning of the present century. It currently has the lowest fertility rate (TFR 1.2) in India. This could be a case of second demographic transition (SDT) or pertains to changing dynamics in childbearing, childrearing, and/or aspirations for children. Using primary data of 600 couples (1200 individuals) and employing quantitative and qualitative methods, this study found that constraints in childbearing and childrearing; and aspirations for children have a strong negative and significant effect on second and higher order childbearing among couples, particularly among women. In our study there was no strong evidence of voluntary childlessness as well as decline in the importance of marriage, family and children as posited by SDT. Thus we argue that SDT might have to be redefined for a developing country context.     

Peter Brown's The Rise of Western Christendom, Second Edition: A Review Essay

Peter Brown, perhaps the world's leading scholar in the field of late antiquity, has produced a substantially revised and expanded edition of one of his major books, drawing on the vast volume of recent work. This essay summarizes its central arguments, especially the significance it attributes to developments away from the Mediterranean and to the seventh century, which together allow the topic to be seen in a compelling new light. It applauds the sustained excellence of Brown's prose, as well as his frame of reference and historical imagination. Some questions are raised concerning his deployment of sources, the importance given to the north, the ability to make decisions that people are credited with, and the coming of Islam. That a scholar of Brown's eminence is able to relish and appropriate effectively work that appeared subsequent to the first edition of this book is a tribute to his stature.     

洪秀全家族婚育状况量的分析

《洪氏宗谱》是一部与洪秀全有关的族谱。利用族谱对洪氏家族婚育状况作定量分析和研究,不仅对洪氏家族的婚育状况有一定的认识,也有助于对我国传统社会婚育状况的研究和认识。内容涉及平均世代间隔、婚配率、有子率、有子数量构成比率、人口变动分析和早婚早育等。     

Warfare,Imperialism, and the Making of Modern Chinese History: A Review Essay

This historiographic essay contends that warfare made and unmade the Qing dynasty between 1644 and 1911, and its study has helped to create the field of modern Chinese history during the past seventy years. It advances three principal claims. First, the literature on war, especially interstate conflict, can serve as a synecdoche for the development of the modern China field as a whole since the 1950s. The research interests of late Qing specialists have oscillated along an “external-internal-external” axis that corresponds with three distinct periods of intellectual inquiry, scholarly production, and generational dominance. Second, historians have reached inaccurate conclusions about the state capacity of the Qing Empire after 1840 through a crude analysis of the First Sino-Japanese War, a mistake they can rectify by adopting a longer-term perspective on the state-making process. Third, scholars have deftly traced the changing role of military power in modern Chinese politics but have also adopted the interpretive categories of wen and wu from literati discourse without sufficient critical reflection. In the future, researchers may seek to explore the intersection of warfare and the environment, technology, and ethnic identity, approaches that will continue to move the field in comparative, global, and Inner Asian directions.     

The second demographic transition, new household forms and the urban population of France during the 1990s

European household structures and their geography have been transformed in recent decades as a response to the interplay of demographic events and changing lifestyles. The formation of new households generally outstrips the rate of population increase, as more numerous and smaller households result from changing patterns of marriage, child-bearing, divorce and longevity. This paper tests some of the underlying hypotheses of the 'second demographic transition' using data from the most recent (1999) French population census. It provides an analysis of changing national household structures over the last quarter of the twentieth century and highlights the importance of smaller households, with particular emphasis on the rise of living alone. Trends identified in earlier work have intensified during the 1990s. In discussing the geography of new household forms, the paper focuses particularly on the evolution of major central cities and argues for more explicit links between their distinctive population and household structures and wider socio-economic change.     

A Mean and Random Past: The Implications of Variance for History

Abstract

Historians seeking to identify the Irish have overwhelmingly relied upon nominal record linkage, thus limiting studies to periods and contexts in which corroborating records exist. Surname analysis provides an alternative: a subset of 283 Irish surnames was able to correctly isolate 40 percent of known Irish individuals across thousands of entries, which is sufficient for sampling the Irish in demographic studies. This conclusion was based on an analysis of 278,949 names from the London area in the 1841 census, and was tested and refined against 42,248 historical records pertaining to the poor in London between 1777 and 1820.     

女性执政困境：玛丽一世女性王权合法性的确立

玛丽一世作为英国历史上第一任女王,自继位伊始,其统治的合法性就充满了争议。亨利八世的婚姻案,使玛丽失去了继承王位的合法身份,爱德华六世临终遗嘱指定简·格雷作为继承人。尽管玛丽通过议会的支持处决了简并成为女王,但同西班牙的菲利普的婚姻加剧了民众对其统治合法性的质疑。中世纪晚期以来的政治理论和思想,也对女性统治充满了偏见。玛丽一世通过逐一回应对于其王权合法性的质疑,逐步确立了女性王权的合法地位。女性王权的合法确立,为后来伊丽莎白一世的继位奠定了基础,加速了民众对于女性君主王权的认同。     

Marriage,Love Magic,and Adultery: Warlpiri Relationships as Seen by Three Generations of Anthropologists

ABSTRACT A nuclear family, that is the social unit comprising a husband, wife(s) and their children, is one of the significant core elements around which the great majority of societies are built. An individual's most immediate social and emotional relationships, those between children and parents, between husband and wife, and between siblings are encapsulated within it. How these relationships are realised in actual practice is partly dependent upon the form marriage takes. In this paper, I analyse Warlpiri marriage as practice and institution by drawing on and comparing material by Mervyn Meggitt (from his work at Lajamanu in the 1950s), Diane Bell (based on her work at Alekarenge in the 1970s) and my own data from my fieldwork at Yuendumu (from the mid 1990s and onward). My aim is to explore the following questions: What constitutes a marriage in Warlpiri eyes today? Are there continuities with the past? What has changed since the 1950s? And, what do these continuities and changes mean in regard to the way Warlpiri people live their lives today?     

读《中国近代史上的官绅商学》

章开沅主编的《中国近代史上的官绅商学》的突出特点,在于摆脱了西方研究理论的束缚,选取活跃于当时历史舞台上的几个重要社会群体,着重分析它们在近代的交错流变以及它们与社会变迁之间的互动关系,以窥视特定历史时期内社会转型的特征。故该书不论是在学术价值、理论建树方面,还是为现实提供借鉴方面,都不失为一部佳作。     

The historical geography of early Canada: A Review

The oil refinery/petro‐chemical complex at Grangemouth has played an important part in the rise of the United Kingdom petro‐chemical industry which has been one of the most dynamic elements of the nation's manufacturing sector.¹ The complex has a special significance within Central Scotland in view of the contrast between its rapid development and the declining fortunes of the traditional industrial base. This paper analyses its structure and development and also examines its role as the focus of official attempts to promote Grangemouth/Falkirk as a ‘growth centre’.     

The Not So Peaceful Civilization: A Review of Maya War

The first Maya encountered by Europeans in the early sixteenth century were exceedingly warlike, but by the 1940s the earlier Classic Maya (AD 250–1000) were widely perceived as an inordinately peaceful civilization. Today, in sharp contrast, conflict is seen as integral to Maya society throughout its history. This paper defines war, reviews the evidence for it in the Maya archaeological record, and shows how and why our ideas have changed so profoundly. The main emphasis is on the Classic period, with patterns of ethnohistorically documented war serving as a baseline. Topics include the culture history of conflict, strategy and tactics, the scope and range of operations, war and the political economy, and the intense status rivalry war of the eighth and ninth centuries AD that contributed to the collapse of Classic civilization. Unresolved issues such as the motivations for war, its ritual vs. territorial aims, and sociopolitical effects are discussed at length.     

The Chalcolithic Period of the Southern Levant: A Synthetic Review

In the southern Levant, the late fifth millennium to mid-fourth millennium BC—traditionally known as the Chalcolithic period—witnessed major cultural transformations in virtually all areas of society, most notably craft production, mortuary and ritual practices, settlement patterns, and iconographic and symbolic expression. A degree of regionalism is evident in material culture, but continuity in ceramic styles, iconographic motifs, and mortuary practices suggests a similar cultural outlook linking these sub-regions. Luxury items found in group mortuary caves provide good evidence for at least some inequality in access to exotic materials. The level of complexity in social organization, however, is still debated. Divergent interpretations of Chalcolithic socio-economic organization suggest that, with the large amount of new information now available, a reevaluation of the debate is due. In this article we synthesize the more recent evidence and weigh interpretations of processes that led to the widespread fundamental changes witnessed during the late fifth to early fourth millennium BC.     

The Strange Situation of Attachment Research: A Review of Three Books

Attachment theory currently plays an important role in both research and practice concerned with children's healthy development, yet there is mounting criticism of its core assumptions and methods of investigation. Three recent books bring together a number of these criticisms, based on cross-cultural studies of children in diverse environments as well as an historical analysis of how attachment theory was created and sustained over time. The two cross-cultural books (Attachment Reconsidered, edited by Naomi Quinn and Jeannette Mageo, and Different Faces of Attachment, edited by Hiltrud Otto and Heidi Keller) include ethnographic observations of how infants and young children are cared for in many non-Western societies, as well as research on children's behavior in attachment-related situations. Common themes include multiple caregiving, maternal responsiveness, and autonomy versus relatedness, viewed from evolutionary, cross-cultural, and developmental perspectives. Marga Vicedo's historical study (The Nature and Nurture of Love) offers a scholarly account of the creators of attachment theory and the social-historical context of its development. Based on detailed documentation of the intellectual careers of these people, those who influenced them and those who criticized them, Vicedo builds an argument that attachment theory is not as scientifically solid as has been claimed, and that its core ideas are ultimately damaging to mothers. Taken as a whole, these books suggest seven observations on the current “strange situation” of attachment theory, which are summarized at the conclusion of the review.