An elasticity analysis of the effectiveness of pronatalist measures in Taiwan

The total fertility rate (TFR) of Taiwan has remained below the replacement level 2.1 for past thirty years. Currently, 16 of its 22 counties and cities have TFRs below 1.3, with TFRs in middle and southern Taiwan even below 1. In the recent decade, various pronatalist policies have been adopted in Taiwan to cope with the low fertility issue. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these policies. In order to identify the group(s) of women that should be targeted to increase the TFR effectively, we have constructed a stochastic model to perform an elasticity analysis. The results show that changes in marriage rates among women aged 25–29 years would have the largest impact on the TFR, with an elasticity value of 0.32. This means that every 1 per cent increase in the marriage rate of women aged 25–29 may increase the TFR by about 0.32 per cent (i.e. an increase of about 2.6 children per 1000 women). The TFR is also very sensitive in responding to changes in the marriage rate and parity-1 fertility rate of 30–34-year-old women, with elasticities of 0.19 and 0.16 respectively. The divorce rate has a small but negative impact on the TFR. Also, the possible contribution of third- and higher-order births is insignificant. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing the marriage rate among women in their late twenties and early thirties, and supporting first births of women in their early thirties, are likely to raise Taiwan’s fertility rate effectively.     

A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.     

Reflecting on a Decade of Australian Social Housing Policy: Changes in Supply and Geography, 2001–2011

This paper compares the intent of three Australian social housing policy interventions in the decade to 2011 with outcomes shown in time series data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census. The three policy interventions are the supply stimulus that occurred in 2009 with funding to construct almost 20 000 new social housing dwellings by 2012, the push to diversify social housing supply through the transfer of public housing stock to community not‐for‐profit housing providers, and the physical renewal of public housing estates to reduce concentrations of social deprivation. Its aims are threefold: to understand how the supply and geography of social housing dwellings has changed over the past decade; to relate these changes to the objectives of social housing policy in the time period; and to identify issues for the future of social housing in Australia emerging from identified disparities between policy rhetoric and supply reality. The paper employs quantitative analysis of social housing supply for all of Australia and mapping of social housing supply changes in the east‐coast mainland state capital cities. This analysis reveals the overall stagnation of social housing supply in Australia over the previous decade, combined with evidence of stock loss in areas of renewal in some cities.     

Data Integration Issues in Research Supporting Sustainable Natural Resource Management

Current decision‐making in natural resource use and management aims at delivering ecologically‐sustainable development to achieve conservation and economic benefits. The process of guiding natural resource use requires the integration of social, economic and biophysical information on which to base management decisions. This paper discusses the integration of socio‐economic information for natural resource management (NRM) planning and decision‐making in the Australian context. A comprehensive resource of socio‐economic data is the Census, which is undertaken every five years by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the whole of Australia. Unfortunately there are qualitative and quantitative issues stemming from the use of ABS census data maps for NRM decision‐making, as they are at a different scale to and the boundaries do not coincide with biophysical information. These issues include the variable shape of collection districts, the use of enumerated data for population‐based statistics, the large size of collection districts in low populated areas, and the averaging of socio‐economic information over the collection districts. Examples highlight these issues and show a way forwards in improving data integration, which includes simple spatial overlay methods and regression modelling.     

REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article: Urban Transport in ASEAN. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, ASEAN Economic Research Unit, Research Notes and Discussions Paper No. 43 Richmond, W.H. and Sharma, P.C. (eds) Mining and Australia Elkington, J. Suntraps. Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, 1984, 400 pp Eyles, J. Senses of Place Taylor, P. and House, J. (eds) Political Geography: Recent Advances and Future Directions Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC) Manual For Use in Statistical Work     

Urban and Rural Estimates of Poverty: Recent Advances in Spatial Microsimulation in Australia

This paper reports on the calculation of poverty rates for small areas in Australia using a spatial microsimulation model. The spatial microsimulation methodology used involves reweighting data from confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) from surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to small area census data, also from the ABS. The method is described in this paper, and then maps of poverty using poverty rates derived from this small area estimation method are shown for the eastern coast of Australia and its capital cities. Further analysis of poverty rates in capital cities is then conducted. We find that areas of higher poverty risk can be clearly identified within Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Brisbane. We also find that areas of high poverty are frequently ‘buffered’ by areas of moderate poverty. This is not always the case since, in some areas, we find a high poverty area neighbouring a low poverty area but, generally, there appears to be a moderate poverty ‘buffer’ in most capital cities.     

Archives,anthologies and other source books†

Documents on Australian International Affairs 1901–1918. Edited by Gordon Greenwood and Charles Grimshaw. (Nelson. In association with the Australian Institute of International Affairs and the Royal Institute of International Affairs).     

Enhanced European Union–Australia security cooperation through crisis management

ABSTRACT

Since January 2003, the European Union (EU) has launched over 30 civilian and military crisis management missions under the Common Security and Defence Policy. These missions have involved the participation of both EU member states and third states. In order to help facilitate the participation of third states in these missions, the EU established the Framework Partnership Agreements on crisis management, setting out the legal framework for third-state participation. In April 2015, Australia became the seventeenth country to sign such an agreement with the EU. This agreement reflects both the common interest and values shared by Australia and the EU and the extent to which EU–Australia relations have evolved and deepened over the years. In addition, the increased engagement and socialisation of Australian military and civilian personnel with individual EU member states through their participation in such operations as the International Security Assistance Force operation in Afghanistan, led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the Combined Maritime Force have further facilitated opportunities for security cooperation at the EU level. Shared concerns and interests on counterterrorism, counter-piracy, instability and capacity-building have also opened up opportunities for increased cooperation between the EU and Australia. This article assesses the significance of the Framework Partnership Agreements on crisis management for EU–Australia relations within the area of security cooperation, and examines future prospects for cooperation.     

Modelling Potential Socio-economic Determinants of Building Fires in South East Queensland

This paper investigates the relationships between areas of building fire incidence, levels of socio-economic disadvantage and the underlying socio-economic characteristics in the South East Queensland (SEQ) region, Australia. Disaggregated fire incident data was acquired from the Queensland Fire and Rescue Service (QFRS) and then aggregated to the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) defined index of socio-economic disadvantage (called ‘SEIFA’) has been used as the basis to identify relationships between socio-economic disadvantage and building fires. A regression model was then developed to predict the incidence of building fires using a range of socio-economic variables. Five significant predictors were identified that include: i) percentage of unemployed, ii) proportion of Indigenous population, iii) families living in separate dwellings, iv) one parent, and v) parent families with children less than fifteen years of age. Results also show that the distribution of building fires varies markedly across the SEQ region, with some of the Brisbane inner suburbs, areas of high socio-economic disadvantage, and parts of inland SEQ associated with relatively high fire rates.     

Rethinking Remoteness: A Simple and Objective Approach

This paper re‐examines the characteristics and assumptions of current remoteness/accessibility classifications in Australia and proposes a simple and easily understandable alternative measure for remoteness. In this study, remoteness is redefined simply as the average distance between two nearest people within an appropriate spatial unit where population distribution is assumed to be homogenous. By definition, the most straightforward remoteness and incapacity index (RII) would be remoteness times a measure of the incapacity for social and commercial interaction, where remoteness is gauged by the square root of the area divided by the population, and incapacity is measured by the reciprocal of population. Australian Bureau of Statistics Statistical Local Area (SLA) level population data and digital boundaries have been utilised for assessment of this index. The utility of the RII is demonstrated with two examples of activity measures for general practitioner services and businesses. At the State/Territory level, RIIs are negatively related to both general practitioner services per person (Pearson correlation coefficient r=?0.873), and the number of businesses per person (r=?0.546). The correlation can be further enhanced by normalising the distributions of the remoteness scores with a simple logarithmic function. The strong correlations confirm that remoteness has a substantial inverse impact on daily activities. Greater distance means longer time and higher costs for travelling, diseconomy of scale, and higher personnel costs. The RII provides an alternative measure of remoteness that is both intuitive and statistically straightforward and, at an SLA level, closely coincides with the commonly used but complex Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia Plus (ARIA+). Significantly, the RII is free of the service specific and policy sensitive adjustments justified by accessibility that have been introduced into existing measures.     

Swings and Roundabouts? Patterns of Voting for the Australian Labor Party at State and Commonwealth Lower House Elections, 1901-96

Federation for Australia in 1901 was closely followed by the rise of the mass party, an organisation with the potential to reduce the regional differentiation that federalism is designed to protect. Loyalty to party can submerge local issues in nationally based partisanship, and the Australian Labor Party (ALP) may have performed precisely this role, particularly if voters have not differentiated between voting for the ALP at state and Commonwealth elections. This article examines the pattern of electoral support for the ALP at state and Commonwealth elections since 1901 and finds that an apparent similarity in long-term voting support masks important variations both within and between states. The potential for mass party loyalty to create uniform voting responses across the federation has been strongly moderated by the diversity inherent in the federal system.     

用GDP评价新中国头30年建设成就的几个问题

GDP是国民经济账户体系的一个核心指标,简单地用GDP评价新中国头30年的建设成就,并不完全合适;目前1952～1978年GDP主要有张风波、国家统计局、麦迪森三种数据,其中,麦迪森数据平均比国家统计局数据高出29.8%左右;传统上认为,发展中国家的经济总量被低估主要表现在未观测经济方面,但实际上,产品经济是计划经济国家经济总量被低估的另一个重要方面;汇率法GDP并不能真实地反映我国的经济实力及在世界上的地位,购买力平价GDP是一个重要的参考。现行的1952～1978年GDP低估了中国这一时期的建设成绩,应同时使用社会总产值和社会总产品的若干数据和事实进行补充和调整。     

Identifying Functional Regions in Australia Using Hierarchical Aggregation Techniques

This paper continues our work focused on developing a new socio-economic geography for Australia such that the chosen spatial aggregation of data is based on an analysis of economic behaviour. The underlying hypothesis is that the development of a geographical classification based on underlying economic behaviour will provide new insights into critical issues of regional performance, including unemployment differentials, the impact of industry, infrastructure and changes in local public expenditure on local labour markets. As a precursor to detailed work on the 2006 Census of Population and Housing data, we establish the proof of concept in this paper of the Intramax methodology using 2001 Journey-to-Work data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the state of New South Wales. The functional regionalisation generated by the Intramax method is then tested using ABS labour force data. We compare 2001 ABS Census of Population and Housing data aggregated by the ABS labour force regions to the same data aggregated using our functional regions. The results demonstrate the potential value of this technique for the development of a new geography.     

The Long Arm of the Third Reich

Mission histories and autobiographies dealing with the internment of Germans from New Guinea in Australia during World War II remember the shock and hardship of the initial detention and the journey from New Guinea to Australia, stories of funny events and good times in the camps, and the struggle with the Australian bureaucracy to get back to New Guinea. The time of enthusiastic or reluctant commitment to National Socialist leadership and ideology has had hardly any space in personal memories or written history, neither in mission accounts nor in Australian war histories. This article examines the politics of Tatura Camp 1, where most Germans from New Guinea were interned, within the context of wider Australian and German internment policies. The Germans from New Guinea were not cut off from the outside world behind barbed wire, but became entangled in a net of interacting and conflicting agencies. By examining the role of the German Reich and Switzerland, and their interaction with the Australian government, military authorities, and internees, the article shifts away from national histories of internment, which set the interning nation as the central reference point, to transnational histories.     

The politics of numbers: explaining recent challenges at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has experienced several significant challenges in recent years, including a declining operating budget, criticisms of its technical capability and concerns about political interference. In-depth interviews were conducted with senior ABS and Treasury Department officials to obtain their perspectives on the causes of the agency’s difficulties. Interview data were interpreted using frameworks from the political science literature on delegation, including the principal-agent paradigm, models of bureaucratic strategy and the public service bargains approach. The study finds that the principal-agent perspective does not help to explain the ABS’s difficulties, but that problems of administrative strategy and tacit bargains between the government and the ABS have contributed significantly to the agency’s challenges. The findings provide insights into the politics of official statistics, and shed light on the evolving role and status of expertise in Australian politics and government.     

Government performance and dissatisfaction with democracy in Australia

ABSTRACT

Satisfaction with democracy has declined rapidly in Australia, reaching the lowest level recorded since the 1970s in 2019. Whereas Australian citizens used to be among the most satisfied democrats in the world, there is now evidence of widespread dissatisfaction. What explains this rapid decline in political support? Comparative studies emphasise the role of government performance, both political and economic, in shaping citizens’ attitudes towards the political system. This paper examines the role of government performance in shaping satisfaction with democracy in Australia, using Australian Election Study data from 1996 to 2019. The results demonstrate that frequent changes of prime minister, which a majority of voters disapproved of, and rising economic pessimism contributed to the decline of democratic satisfaction in Australia.     

Community Antagonism Towards Asylum Seekers in Port Augusta,South Australia

An overtly hostile response to asylum seekers was observed in questionnaire responses provided by residents of Port Augusta, South Australia in April 2002. A social construction approach to identity and representation was used to interrogate this antagonism within its social, cultural, political and geographical contexts. Asylum seekers were constructed as ‘burdensome’, ‘threatening’ and ‘illegal’, and opposition to them was set within the discursive framework of a ‘Self/Other’ binary. Enmity towards asylum seekers was articulated concurrently with overwhelming support for the Federal Government's exclusive and deterrence‐oriented asylum policies. However, vehement opposition was expressed regarding the government's decision to construct Baxter Immigration Reception and Processing Centre in close proximity to Port Augusta. Factors contributing to the respondents’ negative perceptions of asylum seekers include xenophobia (specifically Islamophobia), events of geopolitical significance, and problematic government and media representations of asylum seekers. An awareness of these factors is necessary to unpack and, potentially, to destabilise the negative constructions of asylum seekers circulating in contemporary Australian discourses. Their entrenchment in the national consciousness may lead to tangible social implications including fear, friction and ultimately violence between the ‘Self’ and ‘Other’, and this should therefore be countered. Community antagonism also contradicts notions of a culturally tolerant Australia and fosters electoral support for the policies of exclusion and deterrence that undermine Australia's commitment to international human rights frameworks.

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The history of Australian legal opposition to Japanese Antarctic whaling

ABSTRACT

Whaling has been a consistent theme in Australia’s relations with Japan since the 1930s, Australia having endeavoured to regulate, restrict, or bring to a complete halt Japan’s Antarctic whaling virtually since it began. Australia’s motivations have been mixed, involving at various points, some combination of protection of Australia’s coastal whaling industry, concern for Australia’s security, for safeguarding Australia’s Antarctic territorial claim, and more recently, concern for Australia’s whale-watching industry and/or for the whales. Since environmental consciousness became a primary factor in the 1970s, Australian policy has been aligned with that of anti-whaling non-governmental organizations (NGOs), albeit that certain actions of NGOs have caused difficulties for the Australian Government. Law – inclusive of legal argument in the course of diplomacy, domestic laws, and international litigation – has been a mechanism of influence used by the Australian Government and NGOs. This paper traces Australia’s legal opposition from its beginnings until Japan’s announcement in December 2018 that it would end Antarctic whaling.