The Distribution of Population and Related Indicators in Long-Term Planning of Passenger Traffic

A methodology in described to forecast the “passenger intensity” of population centers and economic regions or subregions, expressed as the ratio of passenger departures to total population. Intra-regional passenger intensity in found to be closely related to income levels and to availability of a transport net. A greater complexity of factors dictates the passenger-forming role of economic regions in inter-regional traffic.     

When Innovation Does Not Pay Off: Introducing the “European Regional Paradox”

In the last few decades, innovation has been widely recognized to be the engine of wealth and prosperity as it intensifies competition and increases productivity, which both in turn lead to significant economic benefits such as higher income per capita and increased employment. However, empirical evidence in this article illustrates that innovation seems not to have paid-off for some of the most innovative regions in Europe, as these regions, despite being highly innovative, grow at a slower pace than their national counterparts, as well as presenting poor economic outcomes such as low income per capita and high unemployment rates. The aim of this article is to communicate this intriguing observation to both innovation scholars and to policy-makers, since its very existence seems to cast doubt not only on one of the most principal assumptions in the field of innovation studies (i.e. innovation as the engine of growth) but also on one of the most fundamental pillars currently underpinning several regional, national and supranational economic policies.     

Welfare accounting and the environment: reassessing Brazilian economic growth, 1965-1993

Few countries in recent decades have experienced economic growth as rapid as that in Brazil. The period spanning the late 1960s and mid 1970s, during which GDP growth was especially strong, is often referred to as the ‘economic miracle’. Yet, the use of per capita GDP growth as a proxy for economic development (or social welfare improvement) can be questioned on both distributional and environmental grounds. Scholars such as Ahluwalia and Chenery have noted that per capita GDP growth places greater weight on the income of richer income groups, and have proposed distribution‐neutral and pro‐poor alternatives. More recently, studies by the World Resources Institute and others have questioned the environmental sustainability of GDP growth and have introduced an alternative national income accounting methodology that factors in estimated losses associated with natural resource depletion. To date, no studies have undertaken both types of revisions concurrently, creating a revised national welfare measure based on per capita GDP, but corrected for both distributional bias and resource depletion. Such a measure is derived in this article and applied to the Brazilian case. The results cast doubt on the proposition that rapid economic growth in Brazil has resulted in comparable welfare gains.     

COMPARATIVE GEOGRAPHY OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE USSR: AN INITIAL INVESTIGATION

Several aspects of the distribution of institutions of higher education and their graduates are compared for the Soviet Union and the United States. The concentration of institutions and students is found to be greater in the USSR. Differences in regional enrollment rates relative to the location of institutions and students may be partly explained by differences in the curriculum structure of American and Soviet institutions of higher education and the greater degree of local control over higher education in the United States. A direct relationship exists in both countries between the percentage of graduates in a region and percentage urban and per capita income. Regional inequality in the percentage of graduates in urban versus rural areas is much greater in the USSR while regional inequality in the percentage of male and female graduates was only somewhat greater in the United States. Level of urbanization, migration of students and graduates, economic opportunity and economic structure are seen as important factors helping explain regional variation in the distribution of graduates.     

An Assessment of the Causal Relationship between Growth and Inequality in Spanish Regions

This paper analyses the causal relationship between economic growth and income inequality in Spanish regions from 1970 to 2000. We examine such a relationship using a panel of data with four time observations on the level variables for each region. Thus, we use a modified form of traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short times series that are available. Applying a sum–difference test, we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth in Spanish regions leads to less income inequality, rather than any other possible causal relationship.     

Does the Centre Hold? Testing Palma's Proposition (A Comment)

This Comment tests empirically the important proposition made by Palma in this journal (Development and Change, 2011) that deciles 5 to 9 of the income distribution across developing economies have been able to secure and defend a stable share (around 50 per cent) of the total available income, so that changes in income inequality are now a matter of struggle between the top 10 per cent and the bottom 40 per cent of the population, ranked by income. The author finds that the proposition does not hold: changes in top 10 per cent shares are matched by changes in the shares of both the other cohorts.     

THE EFFECTS OF METROPOLITAN JOB GROWTH ON THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILY INCOME*

ABSTRACT. This article examines how a metropolitan area's job growth affects its income distribution, using CPS data from 1979 to 1988. Metropolitan growth increases the poorest quintile's income by a greater percentage than for the average family. Metropolitan growth also increases the value of property owned by the richest quintiles. Economic development programs to increase local growth will have a net progressive effect if the cost per job created is low, and these costs are financed by personal taxes. But programs with a high cost per job, or financed by cutting welfare, will reduce the net income of the poorest quintile.     

新时期国内旅游抗周期性及双对数需求弹性分析

2000年以来,我国人均收入超过1000美元,国内旅游进入快速增长期,呈现抗周期性的新特征。本文在形态指标分析的基础上,界定了旅游业抗周期的概念及两种表现形式。相关统计数据实证检验发现,2003年SARS危机后,2004年国内旅游强力反弹,2009年国民经济进入低谷期后国内旅游率先恢复,形成一种受短期波动影响较小的惯性增长。同时,本文依据1994年～2012年时间序列数据建立了双对数模型,分析全国及城市居民国内旅游收入弹性和价格弹性,结果显示,收入需求弹性大于价格需求弹性,收入增长对居民国内旅游的推动作用大于价格的限制,形成了“刚性”的旅游需求,这是新时期国内旅游迅猛增长及抗周期性形成的根本原因。     

Macroeconomic Effects of 21st Century Trade and Investment Agreements: The Case of the Trans‐Pacific Partnership

Following United States withdrawal, the Trans‐Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) is likely to be replaced or complemented by a series of bilateral deals between the US and TPP partners. In this case, TPP will shape trade, finance and public policy globally even without formal US participation. Proponents of TPP emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited projections suggest modest GDP gains after 10 years, varying from less than half a percentage point in the USA to 13 per cent in Vietnam. However, these projections assume full employment and constant income distribution in all countries, excluding some of the major risks of trade liberalization. This article provides alternative projections of the TPP's economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which allows for changes in employment and income distribution. Using this model, the authors obtain very different results. They find that the benefits to economic growth are even smaller than those projected with full‐employment models, and are negative for Japan and the USA. More importantly, they find that the TPP will likely lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality.     

Income Inequality and Voter Fractionalisation: An Empirical Study of 16 Multi-Party European Democracies

This article empirically investigates relationships between voter fractionalisation and economic inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient of income inequality and a new index of fractionalisation developed for this study. Our main findings are as follows. States with high income inequality have less voter fractionalisation. States with higher GDP per capita have more voter fractionalisation. States with high election thresholds for parliamentary representation have less voter fractionalisation. Eastern European states and states with high unemployment rates have more voter fractionalisation. States with greater ethnic fractionalisation have less voter fractionalisation. Fractionalisation has been greater in recent decades (2000s and 1990s) than earlier decades (1980s).     

中国女性农民工务工活跃度研究——基于全国29省份调查数据与陕西省实证研究

基于全国范围内(除京沪港澳台地区)女性农民工外出务工调查数据,提出女性农民工务工活跃度新概念,并将该概念分解为四个活跃度因子:务工距离、务工时间、务工地点数以及务工频数,用层次分析法得出各因子的权重并计算各省市区的活跃度。引入对应各省市区农民人均纯收入进行回归分析,与多项式模型拟合较好,活跃度随农民人均纯收入的减小而有增大的趋势。分别对四个活跃度因子的地理空间分布进行研究,运用聚类分析法进一步探究务工活跃度结合农民人均纯收入在地理空间上的分布特征,并在全国范围内划分出7个区域类型。最后以陕西省为例,用Logistic回归模型得出女性农民工的个人、家庭及其他因素对务工活跃度有较大影响。     

REGIONAL INCOME EVOLUTION IN SOUTH AFRICA AFTER APARTHEID*

ABSTRACT South Africa is one of the wealthiest countries on the African continent. The high national level (and growth) of GDP per capita, however, masks significant differences in economic performance across South Africa's regions. This paper uses (spatial) Markov chain techniques to describe the evolution of the entire cross‐section regional income distribution in terms of its intra‐distributional characteristics during the post‐Apartheid period. The results indicate a heavily diverging regional income distribution. Relatively poor regions are likely to remain poor or become even poorer and the richest regions will maintain their lead in terms of income levels. Explicitly taking account of space furthermore shows that these high‐income regions are acting as local growth poles, absorbing economic activity from their immediate surroundings. Location, trade, education, and the variable fortune of the gold mining industry seem to be important determinants of the observed evolution.     

The service sector,regional specialization,and economic growth in the Victorian economy

During the Victorian period there were substantial regional variations in employment in the service industries. Explanations of economic growth in this period have been dominated by the notion that it was industry-led. If that were so, service growth would be a function of industrial growth. Testing of this thesis by econometric methods suggested that industry provided a poor explanation for variations in services, and that the main explanation was provided by variations in income. This raised other questions, since income per head in the industrial areas was generally much lower than in the less industrialized and service-oriented south of England. There is an abundance of evidence to suggest that this service-oriented regional growth was not derived from industrial development but from international trade and finance together with the consumer spending of a wealthy landed society. There was thus a substantial element of economic and spatial dualism in the Victorian economy. The role of heavy industry in Victorian growth thus needs to be revised considerably downward, and the importance of services and the South East region in particular revised considerably upward. Indeed it is by no means sure that the industrial regions provided the principal stimulus to Victorian growth: the evidence of this study would suggest otherwise.     

On hunger and child mortality in India

Despite accelerated growth there is pervasive hunger, child undernutrition and mortality in India. Our analysis focuses on their determinants. Raising living standards alone will not reduce hunger and undernutrition. Reduction of rural/urban disparities, income inequality, consumer price stabilization, and mothers’ literacy all have roles of varying importance in different nutrition indicators. Somewhat surprisingly, public distribution system (PDS) do not have a significant effect on any of them. Generally, child undernutrition and mortality rise with poverty. Our analysis confirms that media exposure triggers public action, and helps avert child undernutrition and mortality. Drastic reduction of economic inequality is in fact key to averting child mortality, conditional upon a drastic reordering of social and economic arrangements.     

Inclusive growth from an urban perspective: a challenge for the metropolis of the twenty-first century

This paper addresses the study of inclusive growth from an urban perspective. It proposes to focus the relationship between urban economic growth and income distribution in cities in which manufacturing production and external demand play a central role. Opposed to the literature that considers economic growth leads to an increase in inequality in income distribution, we present some operative economic tools from Marshallian Industrial Districts theory and from urban economic theory with which to develop an economic strategy for inclusive urban growth, making possible to achieve simultaneously economic growth and improvements in income distribution. An interesting example of a metropolis with a dynamic of economic and employment growth compatible with a reduction in income inequality is provided by Barcelona. This metropolis disposes a Survey of living conditions and habits of the population since 1986 that allows an analysis in terms of inclusive urban growth.     

Elastic labor supply and agglomeration

This study analyzes the interplay between the agglomeration of economic activities and interregional differences in working hours, which are typically longer in large cities, as they are normally more developed than small cities. For this purpose, we develop a two‐region model with endogenous labor supply. Although we assume a symmetric distribution of immobile workers, the symmetric equilibrium breaks in the sense that firms may agglomerate when trade costs are intermediate and labor supply is elastic. We also show that the price index is always lower, while labor supply, per capita income, real wages, and welfare are always higher in the more agglomerated region.     

Political Economy of Income Distribution: A Comparative Study of Taiwan and Mexico

Both Taiwan and Mexico have experienced remarkable economic growth since the 1960s. Taiwan demonstrates that higher income level can be accompanied by falling income inequalities. However, unlike Taiwan, the course of economic growth in Mexico has left the country with a very unequal distribution of income. This paper compares the government policies of income distribution in Mexico and Taiwan and identifies the factors contributing to the success of Taiwan and to the highly uneven income distribution in Mexico. The paper concludes that market-oriented growth does not automatically reduce inequality or poverty. The prospects for better income equity and sustainable economic development would be greatly enhanced through implementation of policies aimed at redistributing land and skills, facilitating small enterprises, and increasing domestic saving.     

共容利益:社区参与旅游发展之利益协调

收益分配问题绝不只是单纯的经济问题,而是涉及政治和社会制度安排的"正义"问题。本文基于对农村旅游发展现实的大量观察和前人对于中国社会问题丰富的研究成果,把宏观制度研究与微观行为分析结合起来,将影响旅游收益分配的政治过程内生化、模型化,展现了在农村旅游发展中,各利益主体——政治精英、商人利益集团、社区农民为实现各自的目标价值,在制度激励和约束下就利益的分配进行重复博弈的动态过程。本文指出,旅游收益不平衡的制度性根源在于国家的政治、经济、法律制度设计偏重于增长而未能有效地维护个人和社会的正当利益。仅仅依靠金钱补偿,或者调整收入分配政策根本不可能达到或实现分配正义的目标。分配正义的实现需要一系列根本性的制度变革,"从顶到底"地建立一个能给予共容利益最大决策权的政治体制和经济机制。     

安徽省旅游经济发展及其对国民经济作用分析

利用1995年至2011年安徽省旅游业发展统计数据分析了安徽省旅游经济发展构成要素。根据贡献率和拉动率的大小分析了旅游总收入、国内旅游收入和国际外汇收入对安徽省GDP的作用,并通过宾馆床位及旅行社数量变化对旅游总收入的弹性分析了旅游要素的效应。研究表明:①安徽旅游收入总体呈跨越式增长,旅游收入波动性比较明显,旅游收入构成上硬性收入(食、住、行、游)比重高,软性收入(购、娱)比重低。②旅游人次呈现快速增加趋势,入境旅游人次波动性较国内旅游人次强,入境旅游人次占总接待人次比重不高,只占1%左右。③无论是贡献率还是拉动率,国内旅游收入对安徽省GDP的影响相较于旅游外汇收入都具有绝对的优势。④旅游总收入对宾馆床位及旅行社数量变化的敏感性大。     

中国区域旅游经济差异的空间统计分析

本文借助ArcGIS技术,结合空间统计分析方法,以2000年以来全国31个省、直辖市和自治区的人均旅游收入的空间分布格局及其演变过程为研究对象,在分析区域旅游经济差异的相关研究基础上,对2000年～2011年的中国区域旅游经济差异的空间格局、互动关联模式以及演变过程进行分析.研究发现,中国区域旅游经济差异的空间格局整体上呈现出较强的空间依赖性;局部上则长期表现出高高相聚和低低相聚的两极分化格局;邻接省、直辖市和自治区的旅游经济发展存在着关联互动,使得中国区域旅游经济差异不断演变并出现新的空间格局.