“The electors shall meet in their respective states”: Bias and the US Presidential Electoral College, 1960–2012

American Presidential elections are indirect, reflecting popular support for the candidates through the institution of the Electoral College to choose the President. In common with other plurality-based electoral systems, the College tends to exaggerate the apparent mandate received by the winner of the popular vote but, on occasion, can deliver victory to the second-placed candidate. Despite a sizeable literature on its operation and vagaries, however, relatively little attention has been paid to the question of systematic bias in the College: does one party receive a consistent advantage over the other from the College's operation? The paper examines the evidence for such a bias in each Presidential election since 1960. Although biases have occurred and in some cases were substantial, neither major party is a consistent beneficiary; the prime source of bias is to be found in the relative effectiveness of parties' own vote-winning strategies.     

Changing the scale and changing the result: Evaluating the impact of an electoral reform on the 2000 and 2004 US Presidential elections

The ‘perverse’ outcome of the 2000 US Presidential election, whereby the candidate with most ‘popular votes’ was defeated in the Electoral College, has stimulated renewed interest in electoral reform in the United States. One option discussed is the Maine/Nebraska system (sometimes termed the Mundt–Coudert scheme) which changes the geography of the contest somewhat. One-fifth of the Electoral College votes are retained for the winner of the popular vote contest in each of the States, with the remainder being allocated to candidates who win in each of the separate Congressional District contests. This paper evaluates the likely outcome of the 2000 and 2004 Electoral College contests if this scheme had been in place. It shows that the 2000 result would not have been changed, but the 2004 outcome would have been even more favourable to the Republican candidate, because his vote total was much more efficiently distributed than his opponent's.     

Italian politics: no improvement in sight

Abstract

The victory of the center left in the April 2006 elections was the product of a small numerical majority that has been translated into a slim parliamentary majority in the Senate. However, the difficulties of Prodi's government have deeper roots. This article explores the structural factors of Italy's never ending political and institutional transitions, both in the political and in the social sphere. Electoral and institutional reforms may help, but the crisis runs deeper because it also affects the authorities, their origin, their quality, their performance and the political community, its fragmentation and its anti-political beliefs.     

Disproportionality and bias in US Presidential Elections: How geography helped Bush defeat Gore but couldn't help Kerry beat Bush

The 2000 and 2004 US Presidential elections were closely fought contests, with in the first case victory in the Electoral College being denied to the candidate with the largest share of the popular vote. Disproportionality in the translation of votes into seats (in this case, from popular votes to votes in the Electoral College) is common to contests using a winner-takes-all electoral system. So is bias, whereby that disproportionality does not apply equally to each candidate. Analysis of the bias at those two elections shows that Bush was favoured at the first but not at the second. Identification of the bias components shows that Bush was advantaged by variations in the number of popular votes per Electoral College voter across the states, and also by variation in turnout. In 2000, his popular votes were also more efficiently distributed than Gore's; in 2004 they were less efficiently distributed than Kerry's, largely because of increased turnout – producing larger numbers of surplus votes – in states that were already safe for Bush.     

The Electoral College and the election of 2000

The United States is one of few contemporary democracies that does not choose its chief executive officer through direct popular vote. Rather, the President of the United States is formally chosen by the Electoral College, and a majority of votes in the Electoral College is required to secure election to the Presidency. In 2000, Republican George W. Bush won a 271–266 majority in the Electoral College despite the fact that his opponent, Al Gore, won about half a million more popular votes.The Electoral College system can be conceptualized as a mechanism by which the results of separate elections in each state and, since 1964, the District of Columbia, can be aggregated to produce a nationwide outcome. It has not experienced major reform since 1804, despite the fact that many critics have regarded the system as archaic, outmoded, and essentially undemocratic. Since the early nineteenth century, more than 600 proposed constitutional amendments concerning the Electoral College system have been proposed and debated in Congress. Some would eliminate the Electoral College system altogether and replace it with direct popular vote. Others would retain the Electoral College system but change the way electors are selected or affect the relationships between popular and electoral votes in each state.Because the popular vote in Florida was very close, and because the remaining states were so closely divided, Florida proved to be the pivotal state in the 2000 presidential election. The closeness and controversy surrounding the Florida outcome has renewed efforts on the part of critics to eliminate or reform the system. However, analysis of the 2000 campaign underscores the fact that both sides based decisions concerning their campaign strategies and allocations of human financial resources in an effort to win an electoral college majority, within the constraints of the present system. It is unlikely that there will be sufficient support to overturn or reform the system through constitutional agreement in the foreseeable future.     

Alan Wilson – contributions to research on population and migration

ABSTRACT

This article reviews Alan Wilson's research on population and migration in the 1970s and the 2010s, which supplements his principal contribution - mathematical modelling of urban and regional systems. In the 1970s, drawing on input-output models of economies and working with Philip Rees, Wilson established the accounting basis for Andrei Rogers' multi-regional projection model, adding international migration. Innovative methods were developed to complete demographic accounts, where there were data gaps. In the 2010s, working with Adam Dennett, Wilson systematized methods for estimating migration flows between regions in Europe, employing his family of spatial interaction models. The key aim of both research strands was to ensure that no information was ignored to ensure consistency in population and migration models. The influence of Wilson's contributions to research on population and migration is traced through a survey of subsequent research.     

‘Sharing the white man's burden’ Nazi colonial revisionism and Australia's New‐Guinea mandate

ABSTRACT

The September 2014 general elections in Fiji resulted in a decisive victory for Prime Minister Bainimarama and his FijiFirst Party. It indicated a desire for stability on the part of the electorate as well as the popularity of measures such as ‘free’ education and the removal of affirmative action programmes for Indigenous Fijians. The Social Democratic Liberal Party garnered a significant portion of the Indigenous vote through appeals to ethnic identity, but will need to broaden its base in future to have any chance of forming a government. The high voter enrolment and participation reflects a hope for more accountability as well as transparency, in contrast to the arbitrariness of the previous eight years. New oversight institutions and a more expansive bill of rights in the constitution offer some ground for cautious optimism in the face of cynicism about the gap between the government's rhetoric and its actions.     

Patronage,Power and Politics in Appleby in the Era of Lady Anne Clifford 1649–1689

Abstract

'The Electoral Management of the Yorkshire Election of 1784'. In the general election of 1784 the Fitzwilliam Whig candidates for Yorkshire declined the poll the night preceding the county election and conceded victory to the pro-Pitt nominees who received organisational support from the Yorkshire Association. This paper uses the Yorkshire county election to provide a detailed case study of electoral organisation and management. It outlines the national and regional political contexts of the election and examines the political and religious prejudices of the protagonists. Furthermore, it details the costs involved and explores the logistics of bringing the enfranchised freeholders, in England's largest constituency, to poll. This paper compares the organisations set up by both sides to direct the election, demonstrating the increasingly professional approach taken by election committees towards the end of the eighteenth century. It demonstrates how in this election the experienced and near-professional committee established by the Yorkshire Association overwhelmed the amateur committee of aristocrats convened by the Earl Fitzwilliam, prompting the latter to make significant changes to his electoral organisation and electioneering strategy for future elections.     

The contribution of Sir Alan Wilson to spatial interaction and transport modelling

ABSTRACT

In a series of papers in the mid-1960s and early 70s, building on his key 1967 paper, Alan Wilson made a series of fundamental contributions to the specification and application of land-use transport models. In this paper the basis of his entropy-maximizing approach to spatial distribution models is outlined with a demonstration that the methods have applications very much beyond its transport roots. The entropy maximization method laid the foundations for the development of a range of multinomial logit share models. He expanded the core transport ideas to the whole range of comprehensive models, initially building on, and extending, Lowry's iconic Pittsburgh model. The factors that have sustained the longevity of Wilson's models are explored and articulated.     

Representation and local democracy: Geographical variations in elector to councillor ratios

In a democracy, one person's vote should count as much as another's vote. While a range of factors can affect this, including the electoral system, party support bases, party campaigning, and the effectiveness and identity of representatives, a key principal is that for each political unit the number of electors per representative should be as equal as possible. Only when equality in electorate to representative ratios is established can equity in other demographic infrastructures be pursued. To achieve representation equality in English local authorities the Electoral Commission's Periodic Electoral Review process considers for each electoral ward the number of councillors, current and forecasted electorates and revisions to boundaries. Here, using 2005 boundaries, we examine variations in elector to councillor ratios in England. Comparing these ratios with 2001 Census data, we investigate whether variations relate to ethnic minority population distributions.We found considerable differences in representation ratios between four types of local authority. Generally, County Districts have fewer electors per councillor and therefore better representation ratios. There are progressively higher ratios for Unitary Authorities and London Boroughs; Metropolitan Districts have most electors per councillor. Comparing each ward's ratio with the representation of its associated district we found most wards lie within what might be considered an acceptable range of variation. Sub-district representation variability relates to urban–rural variations in ward extent and the use of one-, two- and three-seat systems. There is no evidence that variations in ward ratios relate systematically to distributions of ethnic minorities. Despite this, to capture local population characteristics, we advise utilising ethnic group demographic characteristics when forecasting electorates.     

Personal Security and Electoral Demobilization: A Comparative Analysis

This research examines the link between the encroachment upon personal security and political participation among women in Lebanon and Morocco. Analyses are performed on the Status of Women in the Middle East and North Africa Survey conducted by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) from August 2009 to June 2010. Results indicate a strong link between perceptions of personal security in both public and private spheres, and the propensity to vote. The results show that not feeling free to leave the home and experiencing regular sexual harassment in the public sphere curtail women's likelihood to vote. These findings have profound implications for shaping policies as they apply to women in the transitioning Middle East.     

The art of science at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory: The rhetoric of aesthetics and humanism in the national laboratory system in the late 1960s

This paper examines how rhetoric shaped the early history of the National Accelerator Laboratory. In a situation defined by a contentious site search and shrinking budgets for research, Robert Wilson crafted an institutional identity for the NAL that emphasized both aesthetic and scientific experience. The paper addresses the circumstances of the laboratory's founding, the "audiences" important to its success, and the ways in which the physical environment and management structure--framed by Wilson's vision of a scientific utopia--reorganized existing perceptions of physics within a humanistic framework intended to distinguish the NAL from its predecessors in the National Laboratory system.     

Woodrow Wilson's Congressional Government and the Modern Congress: The "Universal Principle" of Change

In Congressional Government Woodrow Wilson analyzes change in Congress during its first century of development. This essay argues that Wilson's analysis of the 19th century Congress, which explains congressional behavior as an outgrowth of both institutional and societal forces, provides a more useful interpretation of change than the institutionalist perspective dominant in the specialized studies of the modern Congress. The essay illustrates the value of Wilson's analysis to contemporary scholars by tracing its impact on the evolution of the author's interpretation of the congressional reforms and changes of the 1970s. The essay attributes the continuing value of Congressional Government to its broad and unified portrait of Congress as a whole.     

A Sample of the Mexican-American Population in 1940

Abstract

Researchers use a mathematical model to perform a counterfactual study of the 1854 Charge of the Light Brigade. They first calibrate the model with historical data so that it reproduces the actual charge's outcome. They then adjust the model to see how that outcome might have changed if the Heavy Brigade had joined the charge and/or if the charge had targeted the Russian forces on the heights instead of those in the valley. The results suggest that all the counterfactual attacks would have led to heavier British casualties. However, a charge by both brigades along the valley might plausibly have yielded a British victory.     

The 1984 Presidential Campaign and the Future of Election Studies

This paper examines the role of leadership in the U.S. House in the context of arguments raised in Woodrow Wilson's Congressional Government. It begins with a discussion of the speakerships of Henry Clay and Thomas Reed as counterexamples to Wilson's generalizations (a model that links the degree of preference homogeneity among legislative followers to a leader's decision about whether to exert policy leadership is presented in an Appendix). Next we argue that preference homogeneity, leadership style and institutional structure form a kind of equilibrium, drawing on the history of the House for supporting evidence. Finally we discuss the application of our theory to House Democrats in the 1980s.     

Free and Fair? Rhodesians Reflect on the Elections of 1979 and 1980

The elections of April 1979 and February 1980 were the first in Rhodesia/Zimbabwe's history to permit universal adult suffrage, allowing for black majority rule. In the first election, Bishop Abel Muzorewa's United African National Council (UANC) won an overwhelming victory, while in the second, British-supervised election, Muzorewa's party was soundly defeated and Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) won over 60% of the vote. By interviewing present and former white Rhodesians, located via Facebook and the print magazine Rhodesians Worldwide, who were witnesses to these two critical elections, this study aims to shed light on which of them was more representative of the will of the people of Zimbabwe, at least in the eyes of the country's white minority.     

Civil Liberties and the Referendum

Abstract

The defeat of the Australian government's attempts to outlaw communism in 1950 and 1951 was a significant victory for the protection of civil liberties. Yet for the Australian Council for Civil Liberties, which had fought a long battle against the measures, the result was not greeted with a sense of triumph. The campaign to avert draconian powers exposed a Council struggling to adapt to the Cold War, and revealed tensions in the Council's belief in democratic institutions and the popular opinion that underpinned them.     

In Frank Bainimarama's Shadow: Fiji,Elections and the Future

ABSTRACT

Fiji's much anticipated election was held in September 2014, returning Frank Bainimarama's Fiji First Party to power under a proportional representation open list system sanctioned by the decreed 2013 constitution. It marks an important step on a long and fraught journey back to parliamentary democracy. A new start has been made, but a lot will depend on how deeply Bainimarama's publicly declared multiracial vision is shared by his own supporters, including the military, overwhelming Indigenous Fijian, which has a proven history of being a friend neither of multiracialism nor of democracy. Whether this turns out to be a pyrrhic victory for one man or a turning point in Fiji's modern history remains to be seen.     

A comparative survey of the economic decline of Empires

Abstract

On 15 December 1965 Tanzania broke off diplomatic relations with the United Kingdom (UK) because of Harold Wilson's policy towards Rhodesia's Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI). Although Tanzanian president Julius Nyerere took this course of action to comply with a resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Organisation of African Unity, he made the support for Rhodesian independence a central pillar of Tanzania's nation-building project. Since 1967 human dignity, African liberation and opposition to racialism and colonialism became central tenets of both Tanzania's foreign policy as well as the Ujamaa socialist policy implemented internally by its government. The loss of a British £ 7.5 million loan notwithstanding, Tanzania's unyielding criticism of British policy towards UDI strengthened Nyerere's national and international legitimacy and reinforced the Tanganyika African National Union's hegemony over the national political space. Relations between Tanzania and the UK were finally restored in July 1968, after the other African governments had re-established them. Nyerere felt sure that this policy reversal would not put at risk his government's political legitimacy.