Dimensions of Spatial Price Dispersion Before and After the Crash of 1929

The spatial and temporal patterns of prices are analyzed over the 1919–40 period. Arguments are made for the distinctiveness of different economic episodes, including the crash of 1929, in terms of their local price effects. Nevertheless, it is also shown that the variability between cities and between components of their price series declined through the early 1940s. Alternative conceptions of spatial price systems are introduced, and due regard is also given to the structure and interpretation of city CPI data. Implications are drawn regarding the proper design of a theory that would explain the observed patterns of spatial price dispersion. This larger project is left, however, to another time.     

旅游景区一票制及其效率——基于产品捆绑定价模型的经济学分析

旅游景区一票制的理论基础是产品捆绑定价模型,但因为景区产品区别于其它一般产品,对景区进行捆绑定价时,不仅要考虑游客对景区的保留价格,还要考虑游客对景区时间消费量的预期（即保留时间）。本文通过只包含两个景区的保留价格一保留时间模型,对游客闲暇时间约束下的景区一票制定价及其绩效进行了分析,并推出了以下结论：（1）除了游客保留价格和保留时间,套票有效期的长短、参与一票制的景区数量的多少等也会影响一票制效率;（2）混合票制会增加效益,而纯一票制的效益不如非一票制的效益好。笔者在此基础上提出了一些建议。     

Ordovician series and stages in Chinese stratigraphy: steps toward a global usage

The first Chinese Ordovician series was erected by Lee & Chao (1924). Since then, many regional Ordovician series and stage names have been established and mostly published in Chinese. The present study is a review of these regional units with a discussion of their definitions and correlation to the international standard. Among them, the Ichang series, Neichiashan series, Chientangkiang series, Yushanian stage and Dawanian Stage are most important; all regarded as regional stage divisions in China. The Lower, Middle and Upper Ordovician Series with their new definitions (Webby 1998) are now accepted in China. The global stage names, which have been approved (Tremadocian and Darriwilian), and “Caradocian” and “Ashgillian”, which are potentially to be part of the global standard, should be formally used in China. The Darriwilian Stage is defined in a global stratotype section near Huangnitang, Changshan, SE China. Only two regional stage names, the Yushanian and Dawanian, still remain since the international correlation of these two units has not yet been resolved. The main type Ordovician successions of China are identified, revised and regional correlations briefly outlined.     

基于手机信令数据的城市时间活力模式及影响因素研究——以南京市中心城区为例

本文基于手机信令数据从时间维度诠释城市活力的概念,并构建其评价指标体系。研究从活动强度、活动混合度、活动联系强度三个维度测度城市活力,在此基础上通过对一日24小时的城市活力时间序列进行聚类,得出五种城市时间活力模式,并构建计量模型分析社会经济和建成环境对不同时间活力模式的影响。主要结论有：(1)南京市中心城区城市时间活力模式可分为高活力波动型、高活力稳定型、中活力波动型、中活力稳定型和低活力稳定型五类;(2)不同时间活力模式在空间上的分布具有一定规律,高活力波动型时间活力模式多位于区域就业中心与公共服务、商业服务中心附近;(3)影响因素方面,居住人口密度、年龄结构、经济水平、交通区位、功能性质、开发强度均对高活力波动/稳定型街区的形成有促进作用。研究从时间维度扩展了城市活力的研究视角,可为探索城市时空间规划、保障城市高质量可持续发展提供重要参考。     

An Initial Analysis of River Discharge and Rainfall in Coastal New South Wales,Australia Using Wavelet Transforms

In many coastal catchments of south eastern New South Wales, Australia, changes in river morphology are a response to human impact superimposed on spatial and temporal patterns of variability in precipitation and discharge. Understanding, and preferably quantifying, spatial and temporal patterns of hydrologic variability are essential to understanding natural changes, and to separate these from artificial changes in river systems. Prediction and management of water resources are also dependent upon this understanding. We assess the variability in precipitation and discharge using the wavelet transform which projects the time series of data into a three dimensional surface of frequency, amplitude and time. The analysis reveals that changes across time often reflect changes in individual seasons and may be linked to changes in particular seasonal atmospheric circulation systems. Strong perturbations in the analysis of one catchment are consistent with documented, geomorphically‐effective, flooding sequences. The characteristics of the series in the transformed data reveal interesting differences at certain times and scales which may be a reflection of changes in larger scale atmospheric processes.     

The nineteenth century Gazette Corn Returns from East Anglian markets

The official Corn Returns for individual market towns, published weekly in the London Gazette, present an opportunity for examining the activity of English country grain markets during the nineteenth century. This paper describes this currently neglected source and considers its credibility and value, using records for East Anglia as a case study.The paper is set against an account of the methods employed in collecting the Returns and a discussion of problems of reliability particularly in the quantity series. The annual quantity series for wheat and barley from 1820 to 1864 for nine East Anglian markets are then examined using methods of time series factor analysis. It is argued that the similarities in these series demonstrate a high degree of consistency and therefore credibility.The general fluctuations in wheat and barley sales in these East Anglian markets are related to production, but differences between the various markets are analysed in terms of a hypothesis that sets the farmers' decisions as to where and to whom to sell the grain within the context of the general farm economy, relating them to the balance between the sale and carriage price for grain on the one hand and the need for and cost of farm inputs on the other. The paper ends with suggestions of other areas of research where these Corn Returns could prove valuable.     

Southern African glass beads: chemistry,glass sources and patterns of trade

Three-hundred-and-sixty glass beads from 19 archaeological sites in southern Africa dating between about the 8th and 16th centuries AD were analyzed using LA-ICP-MS, determining 47 chemical elements. The eight different bead series, previously defined on morphological characteristics, possess different glass chemistries. Some bead series were made from plant-ash glasses, others from soda-alumina glasses. Zhizo series beads of the late 1st millennium AD were probably made from Iranian glass. Later bead series were made of glass probably manufactured in South Asia, though there are changes through time in both South Asian glass recipes and bead morphologies.     

Shooting in the Dark: Recovering the Jewish Farmers of an American Zion

Abstract

The authors argue that the publication of any new historical data series requires a formal estimate of its margins of error. We show how overall margins of error may be calculated for the standard forms of historical data series from information on the reliability of its components. The presentation of such margins of error should be transparent, allowing readers both to judge the estimate and to test the implications of applying different standards. An illustration is provided for Hoffmann's industrial output series for Britain, 1780–1831. The calculations emphasize the value of this approach to the recent debate on measuring growth rates during the British Industrial Revolution and suggest its merits more generally.     

Time-weighted magnetic indices as predictors of ionospheric behaviour

A time-weighted accumulation of the ap index, ap(τ) (Wrenn, 1987; Wrenn et al., 1987, 1989), together with other similar indices, was explored as a predictor of ionospheric behaviour, using ƒ₀F2 data for a selection of locations in Australia and Europe for September and October 1989. All the time accumulated indices showed improved linear correlations, indicative of a response time of the order of about 15 hours. The response time could be decomposed into a lag between respective time series and a persistence time, although the decomposition appeared unnecessary as the persistence time carried the same information. Of the individual indices investigated, aa(τ) appeared best and the auroral oval equatorward edge index (AI index) was poorest, although the differences were not statistically significant. Comparisons between the aa, ap and Kp indices, plus comparisons between different ionospheric parameters showed that forecasting may be improved using different transformations of the data. While these results appear good, further studies using other stations and seasons are warranted to confirm their utility for forecasting.     

VALUING ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY: A SPACE‐BASED STRATEGY*

ABSTRACT This paper develops and applies a space‐based strategy for overcoming the general problem of deriving the implicit demand for nonmarket goods. It focuses specifically on evaluating one form of environmental quality, distance from Environmental Protection Agency designated environmental hazards, via the single‐family housing market in the Puget Sound region of Washington State. A spatial two‐stage hedonic price analysis is used to: (i) estimate the marginal implicit price of distance from air release sites, hazardous waste generators, hazardous waste handlers, superfund sites, and toxic release sites; and (ii) estimate a series of implicit demand functions describing the relationship between the price of distance and the quantity consumed. The analysis, which represents an important step forward in the valuation of environmental quality, reveals that the information needed to identify second‐stage demand functions is hidden right in plain sight—hanging in the aether of the regional housing market.     

The changing shape of island epidemics: historical trends in Icelandic infectious disease waves, 1902–1988

Iceland's centuries-long history of epidemics with its unusually complete disease records has attracted study from several disciplines. But detailed spatial data of particular interest to historical geographers date only from 1895 and were consistently maintained for about a century thereafter. Within this period, this paper concentrates on morbidity records of reported cases of infectious diseases for an 87-year window which was open between 1902 and 1988. In this time slice, spatially detailed data for seven demographically important infectious diseases allow the geography of 131 discrete epidemic waves with a recorded total of 529,000 cases to be tracked. Changes in the behaviour of the seven diseases over the period are analyzed and related to both epidemiological theory and to the changing historical geography of the island. The paper complements earlier Icelandic work by the authors on the historical geography of single diseases (measles, influenza and poliomyelitis) by extending the range of diseases, and by considering their common spatial behaviour and their interrelationships.     

Are the Economies of Canada and the United States Integrated? Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

In recognition of his contributions to the development of the method of cointegration analysis for analyzing nonstationary time series, late Sir Clive William John Granger (September 4, 1934–May 27, 2009) was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2003. Since then, this method has become a dominant paradigm in empirical economic research. However, this method is not without critics. This article is one in a series to point out some inconsistent arguments used in the development of the method of cointegration analysis. To illustrate by example, we apply the method of time series cointegration analysis and present statistical evidence that supports the proposition that the economies of Canada and the United States are integrated. We conclude this article by laying out a foundation to formally criticize the method of cointegration analysis in subsequent research.     

Sir John Coxe Hippisley: That ‘Busy Man’ in the Cause of Catholic Emancipation

The late 18th and early 19th centuries represent a critical time for the emergence of modernity in western political life. Of particular interest is the confluence at that time of increased religious toleration with political reform. Research for an earlier study, Parliamentary Politics of a County and its Town: General Elections in Suffolk and Ipswich in the Eighteenth Century (Westport, 2002), led to an examination of Sir John Coxe Hippisley, MP (1747–1825). In many ways, his political career is an exemplar of the broader conflicts of contemporary English political life writ small. Set between 1790 and 1818, Hippisley's parliamentary career is fascinating, for while he was an active and precocious supporter of catholic emancipation, he represented Sudbury in Suffolk, a borough with a high proportion of protestant dissenters. His constituents found Hippisley's enthusiasm for catholic emancipation repugnant, but not so much so that they could not be convinced to continue to vote for him if the price was right. Consequently a constant and expensive wooing of his constituents marked his parliamentary career. On a national level, Hippisley's constant and public pursuit of catholic emancipation, coupled with his equally avid quest for preferment, led to a series of quixotic contradictions in his political behaviour. Hippisley and his political adventures thus represent a crucial development stage in the movement for religious freedom in England and the west, as well as providing an illuminating case study on the dynamics of local politics in the time leading up to the first great age of reform.     

基于GWR模型的合肥居住地价影响因素研究

以合肥市主城区为例,基于2010-2014年居住用地的出让数据,运用地统计法、GWR模型等方法,对合肥市居住地价的空间异质性及其影响因素进行研究。研究表明：①合肥市居住地价的空间分布呈现出显著的多中心的空间结构,地价的峰值区分别以老城区、政务区天鹅湖及滨湖新区塘西河公园为中心呈现圈层式分布;②不同的地价影响因素表现出不同的空间分布特征,其中容积率对居住地价的贡献度空间差异最大,其次是宗地面积,主干路次之,交通站点对居住地价的贡献度最小;③厘清各影响因素对地价的作用机制,建立动态的数字地价模型,不仅能促进土地资源的集约利用,重塑城市的空间结构,而且能为城市整体价值的发挥提供重要的理论支撑。     

Frozen Film and FOSDIC Forms: Restoring the 1960 U.S. Census of Population and Housing

In this article, the authors describe a collaboration of the Minnesota Population Center (MPC), the U.S. Census Bureau, and the National Archives and Records Administration to restore the lost data from the 1960 Census. The data survived on refrigerated microfilm in a cave in Lenexa, Kansas. The MPC is now converting the data to usable form. Once the restored data are processed, the authors intend to develop three new data sources based on the 1960 census. These data will replace the most inadequate sample in the series of public-use census microdata spanning the years from 1850 to 2000, extend the chronological scope of the public census summary files, and provide a powerful new resource for the Census Bureau and its Research Data Centers.     

THE EXCHANGEABILITY OF HEDONIC PROPERTY PRICE STUDIES*

ABSTRACT. Observations drawn from multiple markets are essential to the construction of indices of housing costs and to measures of demand for housing attributes. It is not evident when multiple markets exist or whether such markets exist for some attributes but not for others. We test for multiple markets by using Bayesian methods to assess the transferability (random exchangeability) of entire hedonic price expressions from one site and time to another, the transferability of hedonic price functions for particular attributes, and the degrees of similarity that hedonic price functions must have in order to be transferable. In our illustrations, price functions for structural housing attributes are generally transferable; prices for neighborhood attributes are not. Therefore, in our illustrations, the desired price indices and demand functions should be estimable for neighborhood attributes, but not for structural ones.     

长春市住宅价格空间分异与影响因素研究

基于持续年份住宅数据、利用空间热点分析和地理加权回归模型，对2011年以来长春市住宅价格分布的空间分异现象和住宅价格影响因素分布的空间异质性进行研究。结果显示：①近年来长春市住宅小区存在向内填充与向外扩散并进，圈层扩展和扇形放射融合的演化趋势，其中西南-东南扇面是居住空间扩展的主要方向；②2011年以来长春市住宅价格呈现出以南部为指向的扇面增长的空间特征，高价住宅街区由点状分布到片状扩散。通过半变异函数和冷热点聚类分析方法指出，长春市住宅空间的南北分异现象显著，住宅价格的低值与高值聚类以铁路为界线存在显著的空间隔离；③就POI数量而言，住宅小区周边银行保险、医疗、住宿、休闲娱乐数量对住宅价格产生较强影响，同时以上因素作用效应的空间差异性同样显著。     

钧瓷系与禹州钧窑

瓷器研究中,“瓷系”的概念比“窑系”在某些时候显得更为合理.钧瓷系产生于北宋末年,并一直延续至清代,而禹州钧台、刘家门等钧瓷系窑址很可能就是北宋的汴京官窑所在.     

The Interface of Agricultural and Industrial Growth in the Development Process: Some Facets of the Indian Experience

This paper uses national, regional and sub-regional time series and cross-sectional data to show that the direct statistical relationship between agricultural and industrial growth is weaker than would be expected. To explain the gap between theoretical expectations and empirical results, the roles of lagged responses, the terms of trade effect, wage-price movements, initial agricultural productivity, income distribution and some non-agricultural factors as determinants of industrial growth are assessed. Adequate agricultural growth is important for price stabilization policy and has direct welfare implications for poorer segments of the population. Further, an appropriate policy towards non-agricultural determinants of industrial growth is needed in order to maximize the impact of agricultural growth on industrial development.     

Alternatives to record-linkage in the study of urban migration: The uses of naturalization records

Abstract

In this article, the authors examine the growth of secondary school attainment in the United States between 1940 and 1980, exploring several different conceptual frames of reference. Using state-level data, the authors identify a diffusion model of educational expansion using a fixed-effects panel regression approach. This method is used to analyze change over time, with particular attention to evaluating nonlinear processes of growth. The authors consider the effect of a number of correlates on changing patterns of enrollment in the postwar era. Regional differences in attainment diminished during each decade, and a limited number of social and economic developments appear to have influenced rising enrollment, although most attainment growth appears to have been linked to a self-generating process of diffusion.