Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia's GDP Growth

A noted economist and observer of post-Soviet affairs presents a study probing the influence of high oil prices on Russia's GDP growth. The paper analyzes the contributions to the country's GDP by sectors of origin and final use, and pays special attention to the influence of trade margins produced by oil and gas but recorded and placed by Goskomstat Rossii in Russia's trade sector. The author's interpretation of statistical data released by Goskomstat Rossii as well as by Russian customs authorities enables him to conclude that the present-day economic boom in Russia can be characterized as consumption-led growth fueled by oil and gas export revenues. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: C67, C82, E23, L71, Q43. 2 figures, 10 tables, 20 references.     

我国经济行业分类对编制旅游卫星账户(TSA)的影响研究

旅游卫星账户（TSA）的特点是,以遵守SNA93的基本概念与核算原则为前提,采用与主体账户完全相同的生产范围和产品分类,从需求和供给两方面全面准确计量旅游活动对整体经济的影响。因此,国家经济行业分类制约着编制TSA的详细程度,从而影响TSA计量结果的准确性。本研究通过对我国TSA实践过程中出现的问题及原因进行分析,对我国原有的和新版的经济行业分类体系进行比较,提出上述观点,旨在于促进我国经济活动分类的不断细化,为构建TSA奠定良好基础。     

用GDP评价新中国头30年建设成就的几个问题

GDP是国民经济账户体系的一个核心指标,简单地用GDP评价新中国头30年的建设成就,并不完全合适;目前1952～1978年GDP主要有张风波、国家统计局、麦迪森三种数据,其中,麦迪森数据平均比国家统计局数据高出29.8%左右;传统上认为,发展中国家的经济总量被低估主要表现在未观测经济方面,但实际上,产品经济是计划经济国家经济总量被低估的另一个重要方面;汇率法GDP并不能真实地反映我国的经济实力及在世界上的地位,购买力平价GDP是一个重要的参考。现行的1952～1978年GDP低估了中国这一时期的建设成绩,应同时使用社会总产值和社会总产品的若干数据和事实进行补充和调整。     

Russian Investment in the Commonwealth of Independent States

The paper by three RAND Corporation specialists analyzes the extent, rationale, and role of Russian investment in other member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Based on a unique, comprehensive survey, it evaluates differences between Russian and Western investors—in particular, the effects of Russian business practices in promoting or retarding reforms directed at expanding market activities, improving governance, and reducing corruption. The authors also assess the extent of Russian government involvement in investment decisions and explore whether that government has an operational agenda for encouraging investment in other countries of the CIS. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F21, F23, O18. 4 figures, 4 tables, 37 references, 2 appendices.     

Perspectives on the Potential of Russian Oil

A prominent American specialist on the economy of the former USSR comments on Russian oil in light of a preceding paper on the subject. Noting the congruence of Russia's economic growth with world oil prices, the author points out that the country's growth is endangered by sharp declines in those prices. He also recalls how an oil windfall shaped Russian thinking in the 1970s, questions how long Russia can pump oil at its maximum level by invoking the American experience from 1859 through the peak in 1970 until the present, analyzes the two corporate models in the Russian oil sector, and briefly outlines Putin's new approach to foreign investment in the sector. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18. 3 figures, 8 references.     

Crisis Amid Plenty Revisited: Comments on the Problematic Potential of Russian Oil

Two economic geographers specializing in the mineral resources of the former Soviet Union and Russia discuss a paper on Russian oil published in this journal by a seasoned oberserver of this critical subject since the early 1970s. The authors comment on the behavior of Russian oil companies such as Yukos, Russian economic policy in mid-2004, and the role of foreign companies, capital, and advanced technology. Recalling mistaken estimates of declining Soviet oil output in the late 1970s, they outline factors that suggest a somewhat more optimistic outcome could be possible, but note that the drift toward government control, which runs counter to the oil industry's efficiency, is not a positive sign. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18, 27 references.     

Urban-Rural Voting Differences in Russian Elections, 1995-1996: A Rayon-Level Analysis

Two specialists on the electoral geography of post-Soviet Russia examine the results of the second national 1995 parliamentary election and the June and July 1996 presidential elections in the Russian Federation. The scale of analysis is the rayon level, based on a data set of roughly 300 rayons drawn from nine representative oblasts across the country. The data permit urban-rural and regional patterns in electoral behavior to be elucidated with greater precision. Although urban and rural effects are pronounced, the analysis reveals the importance of many other local contextual factors less amenable to quantification. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers H10, O10, R1O. 1 figure, 7 tables, 24 references.     

Russia's Accession to the World Trade Organization

A prominent specialist on the Russian economy presents a timely assessment of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. The author discusses the reasons that prompted Russia to seek membership and scrutinizes the major obstacles, such as complexities of the accession process and the country's institutional malaise. An analysis of the effects of possible membership on the Russian economy is followed by a focus on Putin's first term (2000-2003) when he supported entry, and the second (2004-2007) when he lost interest. Also presented are two scenarios projecting reinvigorated pursuit of Russian membership, or abandonment of the goal. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F13, F40, O19. 1 table, 46 references.     

The "Crisis" Geography of Contemporary Russia

Against the background of structural and geographical changes that brought about the economic crises of the 1990s in the Russian Federation and subsequent recovery in the early years of the 21st century, the authors analyze the challenges of (and responses to) the 2008 global economic and financial crisis in Russia. Quantitative data derived from official sources and the authors' own research is used to analyze developments at a variety of spatial scales, including inter- and intra-regional, urban and rural. The noted authors speculate about possible exit paths from the crisis and their impacts on spatial differentiation within the Russian Federation. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F210, G010, O150, O180. 6 figures, 1 table, 55 references.     

Islam,Territory, and Contested Space in Post-Soviet Russia

A noted American specialist on nationalism and identity politics in the former USSR reviews the political, institutional, and territorial complexities identified with the Muslim minority in the Russian Federation. Coverage includes the size and distribution of Muslim communities, the government's approach to the diverse adherents of Islam (including Wahhabis), fragmentation of Islamic institutions, and federal policies before and after the October 2004 terrorist attack on the school in Beslan, North Ossetia. Considerable attention is devoted to differences between Islamo-internationalism and Islamo-nationalism in Chechnya, as well as similarities and differences among approaches to Muslim affairs in Russia and other parts of Europe. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O15, O18, Z13. 1 table, 53 references.     

Misconceptions and Complexities in the Study of China's Cities: Definitions,Statistics, and Implications

A noted American authority on urbanization and the household registration system in China reviews and clarifies factors leading to misunderstanding and misconceptions regarding the number of inhabitants of China's major cities. Principal sources of confusion linked to reliance on official statistical sources are the multi-layered meanings of the term "city" and, consequently, simultaneous publication and use of a multitude of official population statistics for the country's "cities." Other complicating factors analyzed by the author include the effects of the Chinese hukou (household registration) system and the rapid rate of urban growth and change over the last three decades. Systematic population and per capita GDP data for the years 2000 and 2005, all based on the multiple boundaries and systems for five major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen), are collected to illustrate both the countrywide situation and specific cases. Also included is a critique of several studies and popular accounts of Chinese cities to highlight misstatements and areas of misunderstanding based on inappropriate use of statistical data. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, O53, P20, R12. 2 figures, 6 tables, 130 references.     

Electoral Behavior in the Russian Far East, 1995-2000: Contextual and Compositional Effects

A group of political scientists specializing in Russia's post-Soviet electoral behavior explores the question of whether genuinely regional effects of voting behavior can be discerned (and at what scale) by controlling for variations in compositional characteristics measured by aggregate social and economic data. The paper seeks to identify situations in which contextual effects may be operating, using a scale of analysis that is intermediate between regional (oblast)-level case studies and nationwide surveys—that of the Russian Far East macroregion. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, O50, Z10. 4 tables, 40 references, 1 appendix.     

Russian Roundwood Exports: The Effects of Tariffs on the Finnish Border Economy

Two economic geographers based in Finland use time series analysis and an inputoutput model to evaluate the economic effects of tariffs imposed on Russian roundwood exports on the economy of a Finnish border region heavily dependent on Russian timber supplies. The authors demonstrate the serious economic consequences of the possible cessation of Finnish imports after 2009, by analyzing the depths of the impacts on the regional economy, and options for compensating for the loss of supplies through increased domestic timber harvesting. They place the impacts of the protectionist Russian policy in the broader context of the dynamics and vulnerabilities of border economies, particularly those dependent on imported raw materials. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F13, F14, L70, L73, O18, R10. 4 figures, 6 tables, 48 references.     

Interurban Development and Economic Disparities in a Russian Province

The paper explores the relationship among factors believed to influence the economic development potential of Russian cities in the post-Soviet period, based on a detailed case study of small and medium-sized urban places in Leningrad Oblast. Relying on rarely utilized statistical data (including local town censuses) collected during on-site research and interviews, the author constructs an economic development index that provides a reference for inter-urban comparisons and analysis. The significance of accessibility for post-Soviet urban development is statistically demonstrated and the role of inherited spatial economic structures (economic-geographical endowment) is discussed along with other factors influencing urban performance. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O11, O18, R11. 3 figures, 4 tables, 30 references.     

Understanding the Shortcomings of Commodity‐based Technology in Input–Output Models: an Economic‐Circuit Approach

Abstract.  The Make‐Use Model serves as a basis for most national accounting systems as the System of National Accounts (SNA) and is acknowledged as the most suitable model for interregional analysis. Two hypotheses are traditionally made featuring either industry‐based technologies (IBT) or commodity‐based technologies (CBT). While industry‐based technologies can be easily interpreted in terms of a demand‐driven economic circuit, it will be shown that: (1) commodity‐based technologies cannot be interpreted as a demand‐driven economic circuit because this involves computing the inverse of a matrix (the matrix of industry output proportions), which is either impossible or generates negative terms; (2) the only way to obtain a plausible explanation of CBT is to convert it into a supply‐driven model. This provides a new reason for rejecting CBT: either IBT is adopted but violates Kop Jansen and ten Raa's axioms, or CBT is chosen but must be converted into a poor or unrealistic supply‐driven model.     

The Role of Russian Big Business in Local Development

The paper, based in part on field surveys in 2006, examines the role played by large Russian companies in local development, focusing on the operations of SUAL and Severstal' in Northwest Russia. The two companies provide examples of different models of corporate behavior (transnational and paternalist) in the current Russian business environment, reflecting a choice more broadly between neoliberal and corporate-nationalistic versions of Russia's participation in globalization. The author investigates the implications of the different models for the local jurisdictions in which these companies operate. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: D21, L20, O18, P20. 2 figures, 1 table, 48 references.     

Foreign Trade in China's Electronics Industry

Three Taiwan-based economists examine the effects of GDP, per capita GDP, geographic distance, FDI outflows and inflows, openness to trade, bilateral investment treaties, and other factors on the volume of bilateral trade between China and 40 of its trading partners in the up-, mid- and downstream segments of the country's electronics industry. Pooled cross-section and time-series data are employed in an empirical estimation for the period 1995-2005, which indicate that the Chinese electronics sector's import/export volumes have grown substantially alongside China's economy. The authors address a specific set of issues questioning whether FDI inflows have created a trade effect in the electronics industry, whether they have lead to a measure of import substitution in China's electronics industry, and whether the net impact of opening the market has been positive or negative on the sector's foreign trade. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F14, F21, L63, O53, P33. 6 tables, 23 references.     

Can Russia Break the "Resource Curse"?

A noted European economist argues that the Russian economy and its post-2000 growth have been heavily dependent on natural resources, especially hydrocarbons, and are bound to remain so for some time to come. Given that many economists have come to view rich natural resource endowments as a "curse" that undermines development, the question arises as to whether Russian economic development is doomed. The author argues that while the challenges posed by resource dependence are serious, they can be overcome, or at least substantially mitigated, if accompanied by the right economic policies as the examples of Australia, Canada, and the Scandinavian countries demonstrate. He analyzes what these economic policies are for Russia, and how to set up Russian economic and political conditions to facilitate their implementation. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E6, O1, O52, P2, Q43. 4 figures, 2 tables, 50 references.     

Perspectives on the Caspian Sea Dilemma: Russian Policies Since the Soviet Demise

An American political scientist specializing in Soviet and post-Soviet foreign affairs outlines the highlights of Russian policy in the Caspian region from 1991 to late 2003. The paper discusses and analyzes the interaction among the five littoral states (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan) in light of contentious disputes over the sea's demarcation, the routing of pipelines, and efforts to maximize oil and gas exports to the West. Noting instances of "gunboat diplomacy" used by Russia and Iran, as well as the American presence in the region after 9/11 and during the current war in Iraq, the author reflects on the Russian role as a stabilizing force in the region. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, Q30, Q40. 1 figure, 74 references.     

The Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Remittances in the Commonwealth of Independent States

Two European geographers and an economist analyze the impact of the 2008-2009 global economic recession on remittances in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Drawing on balance-of-payments data as well as information on money transfers to and from the region, they detail the annual growth of remittances since 2001, illustrating the growing importance of this income stream to a number of countries in the region. Using quarterly data, they then provide details of the impact of the financial crisis on remittances starting with the 2007 credit crunch and intensifying with the collapse of global markets in 2008. Based on the impact of the 1998 Russian Crisis, they suggest that by 2012, remittances to the region could fall to only one-third the 2008 level, and that a return to pre-crisis levels of remittances could take almost a decade. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F220, F240, J610, O180. 4 figures, 6 tables, 47 references.