A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF SECTORAL VARIATIONS IN RETURNS TO EXTERNAL SCALE

ABSTRACT.  This paper reports results of spatially explicit analyses of external scale effects across a variety of sectors, including manufacturing. Using data from New England counties, earnings are found to exhibit increasing returns to urbanization in every sector. Returns to sectoral localization are mixed, however, with increasing returns in one sector, constant returns in five sectors, and decreasing returns in two sectors. External scale effects are fairly confined in their spatial extent, with only retailing and services particularly marked by spillover effects from neighboring counties.     

A Geostatistical Linear Regression Model for Small Area Data. 一种适用于小区域数据的地统计线性回归模型

We present a new linear regression model for use with aggregated, small area data that are spatially autocorrelated. Because these data are aggregates of individual‐level data, we choose to model the spatial autocorrelation using a geostatistical model specified at the scale of the individual. The autocovariance of observed small area data is determined via the natural aggregation over the population. Unlike lattice‐based autoregressive approaches, the geostatistical approach is invariant to the scale of data aggregation. We establish that this geostatistical approach also is a valid autoregressive model; thus, we call this approach the geostatistical autoregressive (GAR) model. An asymptotically consistent and efficient maximum likelihood estimator is derived for the GAR model. Finite sample evidence from simulation experiments demonstrates the relative efficiency properties of the GAR model. Furthermore, while aggregation results in less efficient estimates than disaggregated data, the GAR model provides the most efficient estimates from the data that are available. These results suggest that the GAR model should be considered as part of a spatial analyst's toolbox when aggregated, small area data are analyzed. More important, we believe that the GAR model's attention to the individual‐level scale allows for a more flexible and theory‐informed specification than the existing autoregressive approaches based on an area‐level spatial weights matrix. Because many spatial process models, both in geography and in other disciplines, are specified at the individual level, we hope that the GAR covariance specification will provide a vehicle for a better informed and more interdisciplinary use of spatial regression models with area‐aggregated data.     

聚集经济与最优城市规模探讨

经济活动的空间集中是一个引人注目的现象,聚集经济是空间集中的重要原因之一。虽然外部性对经济活动的集中有重要影响,但要解释聚集经济的来源还必须寻求更微观、更基本的经济主体行为上的原因。每个城市都存在着一个最优的规模,这个最有效率的规模是由经济活动空间集中所带来的利益与所引起的成本之间的一个均衡所决定的。因此,在城市化过程中,必须注重城市功能与效率的充分发挥。本文结合规模收益递增和单中心圆形城市模型,分析了通勤成本、城市规模收益递增程度对最优城市规模的影响,讨讨了城市人均收入与城市规模之间的关系,推导了两种对立的力量所决定的最优城市规模。文中指出:在一定条件下,城市人均收入与城市规模之间存在倒U形关系;否则,在城市总生产函数中规模收益递增程度足够强的情况下,最优城市规模取决于通勤成本。     

AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES: MICRODATA PANEL ESTIMATES FROM CANADIAN MANUFACTURING*

ABSTRACT This paper identifies the main sources of urban increasing returns, after Marshall. The geographical distance across which externalities flow is also examined. We bring to bear on these questions plant‐level data organized in the form of a panel across the years 1989 and 1999. Plant‐level production functions are estimated across the Canadian manufacturing sector as a whole and for five broad industry groups, each characterized by the nature of its output. The panel data overcome selection bias resulting from unobserved plant‐level heterogeneity that is constant over time. A related set of estimates using instrumental variables allay persistent concerns with endogeneity. Results provide strong support for Marshall's claims about the importance of buyer‐supplier networks, labor market matching and spillovers. We show that spillovers enhance plant productivity within industries rather than between them and that these spillovers are highly localized.     

SPATIAL MOBILITY AND RETURNS TO EDUCATION: SOME EVIDENCE FROM A SAMPLE OF FRENCH YOUTH*

ABSTRACT This study re‐evaluates the returns to geographic mobility and to the level of education taking into account the interaction between these two variables, and using the distance covered as a proxy for migration costs. We have at our disposal an original French database that permits precise calculation of the distance between the place of education and the location of first employment. For men, we find decreasing returns to spatial mobility as the distance covered rises and increasing returns to mobility with higher levels of education. The marginal returns to spatial mobility for women are lower across the board.     

Theoretical economic geography and spatial econometrics: dynamic perspectives

Theoretical economic geography has received significant newimpetus from so-called ‘new economic geography’theory, and this provides the basis of the spatial econometricmodel developed in this paper. The model, which is seen as partof an attempt to bridge the gap that presently exists betweenthis new body of theory and reality, is fitted using 3SLS todata on manufacturing productivity growth data for 178 regionsof the EU covering the periods 1975–81, 1981–89,1989–95. The resulting estimates point to the continuedexistence over time of increasing returns, and thus providessupport for one of the main tenets of new economic geographytheory. The results also highlight urbanization, peripherality,the initial level of technology and across-region spilloversas determinants of regional productivity growth variations,operating via the rate of technical progress and labour efficiencyvariations. There is no evidence that these variables are diminishingin significance systematically over time, leading to the conclusionthat spatial polarization in productivity will persist. Thepaper points to the need for further testing of fundamentalassumptions of the underlying theory, and for developments inthe theory to accommodate interdependence between model parametersand the socio-economic context within which the process is operating.     

Urbanization patterns: European versus less developed countries

This paper develops a model in which the interaction between transport costs, increasing returns to scale, and labor migration across sectors and regions creates a tendency for urban agglomeration. Demand from rural areas favors urban dispersion. European urbanization took place mainly in the 19th century, with higher costs of spatial interaction, weaker economies of scale, and a less-elastic supply of labor to the urban sector than in less developed countries (LDCs) today. These factors could help explain why primate cities dominate in LDCs, whereas a comparatively small share of urban population lives in Europe's largest cities.     

Do Urban Agglomeration Effects and Household Amenities have a Skill Bias?*

There are several hypotheses why urban scale affects wages. Most focus on agglomeration economies that increase labor demand, especially for high‐skilled workers (e.g., dynamic externalities stress knowledge transfers, and imply the urban wage gap favors skilled workers). Others stress urban amenities that increase labor supply and decrease wages. Amenities should have a stronger influence on affluent households if they are normal goods. By examining whether urban‐scale affects net returns to education, it can be determined whether skilled workers are influenced more by urban productivity or amenities. Empirical results suggest net returns to education decline with urban scale, implying a key role for urban amenities in affecting skilled workers.     

THE LOCATION THEORY OF THE PLANTATION*

ABSTRACT This paper develops a method for studying noninfinitesimal operational units, with the Thünen location and land use model. With constant returns to scale and perfect divisibility of nonland inputs, all operational units would occupy only a point on the landscape. The present model uses increasing returns to scale to generate large operational units, called “plantations” and studies the comparative statics. The setting of the model is an agricultural operation in which some processing of raw crop must be conducted prior to shipment to market. The processing is assumed to have increasing returns to scale.     

Urban revitalization in the Netherlands: Current trends versus actual policies

The paper focuses at the discrepancy between actual urban policies and current spatial socio‐economic developments. Three discrepancies are discussed: homogeneous concepts versus developments directed at heterogeneity; economic seduction policies versus comprehensive developments; and small‐scale policies versus higher level developments. Basic to the current spatial trends is the evolution of a large‐scale urban network. This results in a less hierarchical urban structure and a heterogenization of economic centres and living areas which occurs both within and between urban places. Because of this, the steering possibilities of hierarchic organized urban policies are hampered. In contrast to these developments, urban policy in the Netherlands has a hierarchical nature and focuses heavily on the traditional dominant urban nodes. The present phase of policy, ‘urban management’, illustrates this. An adaption of the spatial framework of policy is needed. The paper also shows that present policies haue a too narrow economic perspective which leads to an underestimation of present and future problems related to the labour and housing market. A plea is made for an explicit dynamic approach to urban revitalization in which the normative and instrumental function is stressed. Moreover, the suggested distinction between efficiency and equity is rejected The article is based on a survey of current trends and future research needs under the authority of the Advisory Council for the Programming of Future Directions in Spatial Research in the Netherlands.     

VARIABLE RETURNS TO SCALE AND REGIONAL RESOURCE ALLOCATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY*

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the resource allocational implications of intra-industrial externalities, i.e., variable returns to scale (VRS), in a two-region general equilibrium model of production under uncertainty. It is shown that most standard results concerning changes in the goods price ratio with constant returns to scale (CRS) under uncertainty generalize to VRS. In contrast, standard results concerning changes in factor endowments extend from CRS to decreasing returns to scale, but not to all permissible levels of increasing returns to scale. Thus, such theorems as factor price equalization and Rybczynski do not generalize to all real-world levels of VRS.     

The Location and Concentration of Businesses in Britain: Business Clusters, Business Services, Market Coverage and Local Economic Development

An important debate has recently developed around the significance of business clusters for the development of the economy. This paper assesses the extent to which concentrated clusters of businesses exist in Britain, using the fine spatial mesh of postcode districts. It identifies the major clusters using a development of the methodology to define local labour market areas. The paper demonstrates the high degree of localization and uneven development of businesses in Britain. It also shows that business service firms are even more highly localized and clustered than other businesses. Moreover, the larger the business centre, the more localized and clustered the firms. The pattern suggests that there is a strong influence of increasing returns of scale, and that, as well as local clusters, much of the British economy is covered by one metacluster. Implications from these results are drawn for the likely future development of the economy, the location of business service suppliers in order to develop their market coverage, and local economic development policy.     

Gravity Parameter Estimation

The question of whether ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression provides unbiased estimates for parameters of the gravity model is investigated. Holding attractiveness constant and looking only at the location of destinations, OLS is shown to give unbiased estimates if underlying behavior conforms to the gravity hypothesis. Johnston's conjectures on this are examined and found to explain only partially observed variations in distance exponents. Allowing attractiveness to vary, spatial autocorrelation in attractiveness is shown to lead to bias in OLS estimation due to misspecification, even where behavior conforms to the gravity hypothesis. Deterministic and stochastic illustrations are provided.     

RETURNS TO COLLEGE MAJORS ACROSS LARGE METROPOLITAN AREAS

In this paper, we provide new evidence that earnings for various college majors differ across large metropolitan areas in the United States. We then set out to explain, at least in part, why these differences exist. We find that the intrinsic elements of geographic areas, such as common agglomeration effects and spatial differences in demand, are an important explanation for all majors. Further, we find that the endogenous sorting of individuals plays less of a role, particularly for domestic‐born college graduates. The sorting of lower‐paid, foreign‐born college graduates, however, increases the estimated dispersion in returns across geographic areas.     

长江三角洲城市一日游的旅游经济空间联系测度与分析

本文通过计算长江三角洲中心城市的中心职能强度,对长三角中心城市进行等级划分,在此基础上,借助修正后的旅游经济联系强度、旅游经济隶属度及旅游吸引范围模型,测度城市间旅游经济的联系强度、隶属度及城市旅游控制范围,同时建立城市旅游经济联系的空间模型并分析长三角中心城市旅游经济联系的方向以及旅游系统空间结构等级层次性特征。结果表明:长三角中心城市旅游经济联系度不断增强,并逐渐向区域旅游经济一体化方向进展,同时区域内部城市旅游经济差异显著,且表现为随着旅游城市等级规模的变化呈现出正相关的旅游经济随之匹配,并在旅游经济的空间联系上按照一定的轴线发生关系,这种轴线在地理空间上表现为"沿线"并且这种联系的规律性在空间上总的方向表现为随城市距离增加而逐级递减规律。基于以上分析,最后针对城市间的旅游经济空间联系对长三角旅游系统空间结构影响加以论述,以此为提升长三角城市一日游的旅游经济活动效率,加快实现长三角旅游经济一体化进程,提供一定理论与现实的依据参考。     

2000—2009年广东省入境游客时空分布格局及其变化研究

依据2000—2009年广东省入境旅游的相关数据,从时间序列和空间尺度两个方面对广东省入境游客的年际变化、时间分布、空间集聚性和空间格局演变进行分析。结果表明:(1)除个别地级市外,广东省大部分地级市入境游客到访率年际变化稳定,年际集中指数较小,时间分布均匀;(2)入境游客空间分布地区差异,呈明显的集中型格局,主要集中于珠三角地区,且有进一步向其集中的态势;(3)入境游客空间分布市域差异,呈现从以广州、深圳为双中心,向四周辐散的"中心双核辐射式结构"到以深圳、广州、珠海、东莞以及惠州为多中心,向四周辐散的"中心多核辐射式结构"过度趋势,空间集聚性指数下降,入境游客空间分布趋于分散均匀,市域差异有缩小的趋势。     

An Application of Taylor's Power Law to Measure Overdispersion of the Unemployed in English Labor Markets

Taylor's power law (TPL) is the power relation between mean densities and variance of natural populations, and described as one of ecology's few ubiquitous laws. Although the power model has been increasingly applied in social systems modeling, including economics, this article, using English and Welsh economic data as an applied example, suggests that TPL ought to be imported more carefully. The article seeks to convince readers that ecological population methodologies can have an important role in analysis of human spatial behavior, and that this function should not be diminished in pursuit of quick interdisciplinary results. Through the production of “scale‐adjusted dispersion indicators,” the article proposes an application of TPL that is quite different from its use in ecological modeling.     

产业集聚:地理学与经济学主流观点的对比

20世纪80年代以来,国际学术界出现了两种以企业行为的分析为基础解释产业空间集聚的"新经济地理学"理论模型:地理学中的"新经济与工业地理学"和经济学中的"地理经济学"。本文从理论起源、产业集聚的成因、市场结构的性质、外部经济的类型、交易关系与根植性、产业集聚的机制等方面对二者进行了系统的比较分析。     

无锡市形态扩展的空间差异研究

从20世纪初,城市形态就成为城市地理学研究的重要内容之一,主要是从景观角度进行静态式的研究。因缺乏度量技术,研究范围日趋缩小^[1]。本文把城市形态作为一个动态变化的现象,在遥感和地理信息系统支持下,研究城市扩展的空间方向、扩展的空间差异,并建立城市扩展的空间变化模型,预测城市形态未来的扩展趋势。     

The use of scripture in the temple scroll and the status of the scroll as law

Abstract

The narrative sections of the Hexateuch seem to reflect an Israelite pre‐history which contained experience of both tribal and city‐state life, but the history is presented in a tribal form. It is suggested that this is explained by a particular ideology underlying the narratives and rituals; that real tribes existed in the national memory, and these carried religious and political values which it was felt important to preserve. Such values, however, could not have survived without the support of a state apparatus, especially the Jerusalem temple and the Davidic kingship.

The paper concludes that this tribal ideology was related both to law and to the role of the Yahweh prophets, whose influence helped to counteract development of too much power in the kingship. As the structural tribe weakened with the advance of bureaucracy, tribal ideology strengthened, taking on a political function and becoming articulated with the bureaucratic process. Tribal ideology interacted with state‐type traditions inherited from the Cana‐anite element, producing a religious and political pluralism in Israel which gave her a distinctive character.

A return is made to the classic scholarship of Mowinckel, von Rad and Weiser, for construction of a hypothetic framework for further examination of Hebrew tribal values. Through the insights of these authors, together with sociological considerations drawn from modern ethnographies, it is felt that understanding of the tribe/state paradox in Israel may be heightened. In this respect, the paper opposes the position of the “social evolutionary” school, which fails to explain the place of tribal values in the Hebrew literature. Parallels seen as relevant to Israelite history and culture come from special tribal forms, specified within the paper.