REGIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS IN A SIMPLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH VERTICAL LINKAGES*

ABSTRACT The paper presents a simple three‐region, two‐sector general equilibrium model that is used for analyzing the effect of regional tax policies aimed at combat depopulation. The model includes exogenous asymmetry in terms of transport costs as well as a vertical industry structure that can account for endogenous location development in order to distinguish between the effects of “first nature” and “second nature” on the required subsidy for meeting the population policy target.     

DISGUISED,URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND WELFARE IN A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH SEGMENTED LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT This paper integrates the theory of segmented labor markets with the Ranis-Fei model of dualism to analyze two types of unemployment; disguised unemployment in the rural sector and urban unemployment. The major results obtained are (1) sector-specific accumulation in the urban area may raise unemployment and lower welfare and (2) sector-specific accumulation in the rural sector always raises welfare but increases disguised unemployment. These results highlight the importance of regional resource allocation and the role of the agricultural sector in reducing urban unemployment.     

AGGLOMERATION AND GROWTH WITH ENDOGENOUS EXPENDITURE SHARES*

ABSTRACT We develop a New Economic Geography and Growth model which, by using a CES utility function in the second‐stage optimization problem, allows for expenditure shares in industrial goods to be endogenously determined. The implications of our generalization are quite relevant. In particular, we obtain the following novel results: (1) two additional nonsymmetric interior steady states emerge for some intermediate values of trade costs. These steady‐states are stable if the industrial and the traditional goods are either good or very poor substitutes, while they are unstable for intermediate (yet lower than one) values of the intersectoral elasticity of substitution. In the latter case, the model displays three interior steady states—the symmetric and the core‐periphery allocations—which are stable at the same time; (2) agglomeration processes may always take place, whatever the degree of market integration, provided that the traditional and the industrial goods are sufficiently good substitutes; (3) the regional rate of growth is affected by the interregional allocation of economic activities even in the absence of localized spillovers, so that geography always matters for growth and (4) the regional rate of growth is affected by the degree of market openness: in particular, depending on whether the traditional and the industrial goods are good or poor substitutes, economic integration may be, respectively, growth‐enhancing or growth‐detrimental.     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF URBAN SPATIAL STRUCTURE. THE PORT-CITY MODEL RECONSIDERED*

In this paper, I consider a general equilibrium urban spatial structure in the setting of a port city by adopting Cobb-Douglas type functional forms for production and utility functions. Unlike previous port-city models, this one can generate four land-use patterns, that is, (1) monocentric, (2) completely integrated, (3) partially integrated (with integration at the center), and (4) partially integrated (with integration at the urban fringe) land-use patterns, and the last pattern suggests a new explanation of suburbanization of employment. The existence and uniqueness of each land-use pattern is proven in a simple constructive way.     

INTERREGIONAL KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS AND OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE IN A MODEL OF FREE TRADE AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH*

ABSTRACT A two region model of horizontal innovation with free trade and occupational choice is used to examine the spatial patterns of innovation and manufacturing industry in interior and core‐periphery long‐run equilibria. The inclusion of skill heterogeneity among workers creates a tension between stabilizing productivity effects that coincide with reallocations of workers across industries, and destabilizing productivity effects that arise with localized stocks of knowledge capital. We find that while core‐periphery equilibria are always saddlepath stable, interior equilibria are saddlepath stable when knowledge spillovers exceed a threshold level but are unstable otherwise. In addition, incorporating skill heterogeneity into the model allows for interior equilibria with asymmetric shares for innovation and industry.     

REGIONAL GROWTH IN THE SOVIET ECONOMY A MODEL AND ANALYSIS*

A multiregional econometric model of the Soviet economy is presented. It consists of 1,391 equations, with time-series information for 1965-1980. In conformity with the number of the country's republics, 15 input-output tables are incorporated. The discussion includes the methodological framework, the structure and equations, theoretical justification for the interaction between the econometric and input-output components, data and estimation, and forecasting results.     

NETWORK LOADING VERSUS EQUILIBRIUM ESTIMATION OF THE STOCHASTIC ROUTE CHOICE MODEL MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD AND LEAST SQUARES REVISITED*

Daganzo (1977, 1979), Daganzo and Sheffi (1977), Sheffi (1985), and Sheffi and Daganzo (1980) have used one assumption about traveler behavior in developing estimation techniques for the stochastic route-choice problem and another assumption in predicting flows on networks by using the same model. In estimation, they calculate the congested travel costs of the network links from observed flows on the network, and the network is loaded based on these costs. In prediction, they follow their stochastic user-equilibrium assumption by which travelers evaluate costs using the mean of the observed flows (or equilibrium flows). The travel-cost coefficient obtained from the loading method systematically overestimates the true travel-cost coefficient from which the observed flow data (which must be used in loading) is generated. The estimates of the same coefficient, obtained in this paper, by constraining the estimation results to conform to the equilibrium conditions are unbiased, and only marginally less efficient (have larger standard deviations). The average percentage error and inefficiency of the link flow predictions based on the loading method increases as the level of congestion on the network rises. In contrast, the average percentage error of link flow predictions based on the equilibrium estimation method declines and their efficiency remains very high as the level of congestion on the network rises.     

宁夏移民安置区剩余劳动力状态分析

农村剩余劳动力转移是当前社会各界共同关注的问题。本文就宁夏移民安置区这一特殊区域的剩余劳动力产生的背景状态、自身资源状态、输出人员的结构状态及目前的转移状态进行了分析,进而研究了影响移民区剩余劳动力转移的各种因素,提出了加速推进移民区剩余劳动力转移的五条对策,即重视移民区小城市与中心城镇的建设、加速非农产业的发展、加大对劳动力的技能培训、加强对劳务输出的组织与服务、加快体制和制度创新。     

AN ALGORITHM FOR THE SPATIAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM PROBLEM ON A GENERAL NETWORK IN THE SPACE OF THE PATH FLOWS*

ABSTRACT. The spatial price equilibrium on a general network may be formulated as a nonlinear-cost mathematical programming problem with simple constraints, when the decision variables are the path flows. The solution of this problem is difficult due to the very large number of variables (paths) and the impracticality of generating all the paths from all the origins to all the destinations. In this paper, we develop a Gauss-Seidel-Newton Projection algorithm and combine it with a restriction strategy. That makes it unnecessary to generate a priori all the paths. This algorithm may be further improved by exploiting the equivalence between the spatial price equilibrium on a general network and the network equilibrium. Computational results that we present in this paper demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed solution algorithms.     

POPULATION DISPERSION VS. CONCENTRATION IN A TWO‐REGION MIGRATION MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS NATURAL AMENITIES*

ABSTRACT Contrary to the predictions of the basic spatial equilibrium model, the long‐run distribution of population across rural U.S. counties with high‐valued natural amenities has become relatively more concentrated versus dispersed. We provide an explanation by developing a two‐region model with mobile labor, production externalities and endogenous natural amenities. We find that strong preferences for natural amenities generally foster population dispersion. However, such preferences can also lead to population concentration when ecological degradation is low and man‐made capital is a relatively scarce input into natural amenity production. Investments that enhance natural amenities are found to reduce the divergence between the steady state and optimal outcomes.     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM OF A REGIONAL ECONOMY WITH A FINANCIAL SECTOR–PART II: A SIMPLE BEHAVIORAL MODEL

ABSTRACT. Simple behavioral assumptions are incorporated into an accounting framework that provides linked budget and balance sheets for sectors of a regional economy. A short-run Keynesian-type model is developed where quantities rather than prices adjust, and where regional prices and interest rates are equal to national levels. The analysis highlights the importance of the financial services sector as an active factor in regional growth. Consumer deposit and debt preferences, and limitations imposed on credit extension by the financial services sector can have important effects on the regional economy as evidenced by changes in the export multiplier.     

A GENERAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE INTEGRATION OF A LAND-USE MODEL WITH A TRANSPORTATION MODEL COMPONENT

Integrated land-use—transportation models are characterized as models in which the redistributive effects of one subsystem upon the other are explicitly defined and incorporated into the model's structure. At the core of integrated models is a linking procedure whose function is to transform the outputs of one model component into inputs for the other. Despite major efforts made in the past to build operational large scale integrated models, the structural properties of such models remain largely unexplored. This paper describes a general framework for an integrated model consisting of prototype model components. These are an iterative activity allocation model of the Garin-Lowry type, an equilibrium-assignment transportation network model, and a linking procedure. Given the level of analysis, this framework is shown useful for exploring the analytics of integrated models and, in particular, their equilibrium properties. By means of many simulation experiments based on an hypothetical numerical example, the operation of the model is demonstrated with an emphasis on the locational interpretation of the integration procedure. On the basis of the empirical results and considering the model's intrinsic assumptions, the following major findings can be cited. First, the effects of nontravel factors (such as basic employment and zonal attractions) upon activity distribution are stronger than effects caused by changes in the transportation system. The latter effects were found to yield nonlinear and, spatially, nonuniform changes in activity location which also tended to be larger in peripheral regions. Second, implicit in the specification of the integration procedure are behavioral assumptions regarding time-lags in locational adjustments made by activities in reaction to rising cost of travel. The present formulation implies that once located, activities do not revise their locational decisions despite substantial increases in travel costs. At the other extreme, all activities are permitted to readjust their locational preferences after the final interzonal travel costs are derived. The effect upon activity distribution of the latter specification is, of course, larger than that of the former, although less than the effect yielded by changes in nontravel factors. Regarding the equilibrium properties of the integrated system, both the theoretical and empirical analyses show that the entire model will converge into an equilibrium solution and that the corresponding trip patterns are also at equilibrium. These results will hold as long as the operation of the integrated models is completely controlled by the generation functions of the land-use model and the transportation model component only affects the spatial distribution of activities. Finally, the results from the simulation experiments indicate that the computed mean travel cost parameter tends to stabilize around a certain value as the level of demand for travel, within the system, rises. There is evidence that compensating changes in the location and composition of this demand are the main causes of this phenomenon. In light of these findings, it is possible to point to three key problems whose resolution could largely improve the predictive power of integrated models. First, it would be useful to define activity models in which the generation of activities is, among other things, a function of travel conditions. Second, currently formulated integrated models do not contain trip demand functions and, thus, demand for travel by an activity unit is regarded as completely inelastic. Third, different locating activities respond differently—over time and space—to changíng travel conditions, and models should, therefore, reflect explicitly such differences in activity behavior. A recent paper by Los [14], is an important contribution to the analysis of this issue.     

THE ROLE OF DEFENSE CUTS IN THE CALIFORNIA RECESSION COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS AND INTERSTATE FACTOR MOBILITY*

ABSTRACT. This study develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of California to examine the impact of recent defense cuts on the state's economy. The study demonstrates use of a CGE model to examine the sensitivity of regional economy models to assumptions about factor migration. Model variants include input-output and closed economy models as limiting cases. The results show that the California economy is sensitive to defense cuts. The multiplier relating the impact of defense cuts to state product ranges from one to almost five, depending on the degree of interstate factor mobility.