Income Convergence across U.S. States: An Analysis Using Measures of Concordance and Discordance*

Abstract. This paper presents methods to analyze convergence in cross‐sectional data collected over time using distribution free statistics that are not sensitive to the magnitudes involved. Measures of concordance and discordance are employed in the empirical analysis of real personal income per capita for 48 U.S. States over the period 1929–2002. Although most States are converging with each other, some are converging faster than others. The methods used have the flexibility to focus on specific characteristics such as convergence in absolute differences or convergence in the ratio of rewards. The methods may also be used to consider convergence without switching and additionally be applied to other features such as the percentiles of the distributions.     

A Visual Analytics System for Space–Time Dynamics of Regional Income Distributions Utilizing Animated Flow Maps and Rank-based Markov Chains

Regional income convergence and divergence has been an active field of research for more than 20 years, and research papers in this field are still being produced at a prodigious rate. Despite their importance for the study of dynamics of income distribution, interactive visualization tools revealing spatiotemporal dimensions of the income data have been sparsely developed. This study introduces a visual analytics system for the space–time analysis of income dynamics. We use state-level US income data from 1929 to 2009 to demonstrate the visual analytics system and its utility for exploring similar data. The system consists of two modules, visualization and analytics. The visualization module, a Web-based front-end called Rank-Path Visualizer (RPV), draws inspiration from the cartographic technique of flow mapping, originally developed by Tobler and embodied in his canonical Flow Mapper application.     

CONVERGENCE AND THE U.S. STATES: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. After decades of apparent convergence, state and regional per capita earnings diverged between 1978 and 1988. A central tenet of the convergence hypothesis is that shocks to relative state and regional earnings, such as those of the 1978 to 1988 period, are transitory. We find evidence for convergence for the U.S. states and regions during the 1929 to 1990 period after allowing for a break in the rate at which the various states and regions were converging in 1946. An important finding of this research is that the US. states and regions achieved per capita earnings convergence by 1946.     

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: STYLIZED FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE POLICY

We characterize the evolution of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions using an index number decomposition technique which partitions the 1963–2008 growth of states’ energy‐related CO₂ into changes in five driving factors: the emission intensity of energy use, the energy intensity of economic activity, the composition of states’ output, per capita income and population. Compositional change and declining energy intensity attenuate emissions growth, but their impacts are offset by increasing population and income. Despite absolute interstate divergence in both emissions and their precursors, states’ emission‐ and energy intensities—and ultimately, CO₂—appear to be stochastically converging. We assess the implications of these trends using a novel vector autoregression (VAR) emission forecasting technique based on our index numbers. The resulting emission projections are comparable to, but generally exceed, those forecast by the 2010 EIA Annual Energy Outlook.     

Recovering the past from above Hibabiya — an Early Islamic village in the Jordanian desert?

Britain and the Middle East were the two areas in which the technique of aerial archaeology was pioneered in the 1920s. Overwhelmingly the latter took place in Syria where a French Jesuit priest, Antoine Poidebard, worked for a generation. Further south in Transjordan — as it then was — three men presided over a brief (1927–1929) but fruitful period: an archaeologist with a passion for the newly developing technique (O.G.S. Crawford) and two pilots of the Royal Air Force with an amateur interest in what they saw beneath their wings (Flt. Lt. P.E. Maitland and Gp/Capt L.W.B. Rees). An aerial photograph published at the time seemed to identify a ‘village’ as prehistoric. Over eighty years later and just after it was destroyed, a fresh examination and the rediscovery of some crucial dating evidence have combined to identify it as, probably, an early Islamic village on the desert fringe.     

The Failed European Union: Franco-German Relations during the Great Depression of 1929–321

French scholars have led a revival of interest in inter-war efforts at European integration and the prominent role played by the French Foreign Minister, Aristide Briand. Franco-German rapprochement was integral to this effort, but with the death in October 1929 of his like-minded German counterpart, Gustav Stresemann, it is generally held that Berlin adopted a more confrontational foreign policy even before Hitler took power. However, this article demonstrates that in spite of a series of upsets, an intense and sustained effort continued during the years of the Great Depression (1929–32) to forge Franco-German détente. This culminated in September 1931 in a Franco-German treaty that established the mechanisms for far-reaching integration of the two countries’ economies, with a customs union and European union as the ultimate goals. It then examines in detail how and why this remarkable effort collapsed during 1932, paying particular attention to an unforeseen crisis in trading relations and the impact of a media scandal surrounding the publication of Stresemann's memoirs. Despite this failure, efforts to integrate Europe around a Franco-German axis between 1929 and 1932 can nonetheless be understood as part of a deeper process that survived Hitler and saw the emergence of the current European Union.     

Spatial Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence

This paper suggests some new empirical strategies for analyzing the evolution of regional income distributions over time and space. These approaches are based on extensions to the classical Markov transition matrices that allow for a more comprehensive analysis of the geographical dimensions of the transitional dynamics. This is achieved by integrating some recently developed local spatial statistics within a Markov framework. Insights to not only the frequency with which one economy may transition across different classes in the income distribution, but also how those transitions may or may not be spatially dependent are provided by these new measures. A number of indices are suggested as ways to characterize the space‐time dynamics and are illustrated in a case study of U. S. regional income dynamics over the 1929–1994 period.     

20世纪30年代中国农业雇工收入地区差异研究

本文采用卜凯1929—1933年所做的中国农村调查数据,用基尼系数法计算了我国不同地区农业雇工平均收入水平及差距,并采用非参数的高斯核密度估计方法分析农业雇工收入分布情况及影响机制。研究表明:20世纪30年代农业雇工收入水平地区差异性客观存在但并未出现两极分化;农业雇工平均收入水平按地区发展状况呈阶梯状递减趋势,地区内部农业雇工收入差距与地区经济发达水平大体呈正U型发展态势;东、中、西部地区之间发展的不均衡性是导致全国农业雇工收入差距较大的重要因素。     

Location and Growth in the Brazilian Northeast

Abstract Clustering of economic performance across jurisdictions has generated considerable research on the spillovers and linkages among geographical neighbors. Much of this work, however, has been aspatial, implying that the influence of location attributes on growth has been largely ignored. In this paper, we examine the contribution of location to regional economic growth using municipio‐level data for the Brazilian Northeast—a historically lagging region of the country. We test if productivity among northeastern municipios is converging to a steady state and whether spatial externalities are linked to productivity growth in individual municipios. We find that, conditional on structural characteristics, productivity among municipios is converging at about 3 percent per year. Further, productivity in individual municipios is positively associated with own‐structural characteristics but negatively associated with productivity growth in neighboring municipios. This means that there are negative spatial externalities coming from productivity improvements in neighboring regions.     

The Historical Impact of Welfare Programs on Poverty: Evidence from the American States

Over the years, there has been a spirited debate over the impact of the welfare expansion associated with the War on Poverty. Many analysts have maintained that public assistance expansion during this period decreased poverty by raising the incomes of the poor (an income enhancement effect), while others have contended that welfare expansion increased poverty by discouraging the poor from working (a work disincentive effect). There has been considerable empirical research about the historical effect of welfare on poverty, nearly all of which relies on the poverty rate (i.e., the percentage of persons with income less than the “poverty threshold”) as an indicator of the extent of poverty. However, this work has not employed designs that allow researchers to sort out distinct income enhancement and work disincentive effects. We develop a model of poverty rates in the American states that permits estimation of these distinct effects—based on state‐level time‐series data observed annually for the years 1960–90—and we find that welfare had both effects during our period of analysis. We also calculate the net impact of increases in welfare benefits on the poverty rate—taking into account both work disincentive and income enhancement effects. Our results indicate that this net impact is dependent on three variables: the initial level of cash benefits, wage levels for unskilled workers, and the share of the benefit increase provided through cash rather than in‐kind assistance. Because of historical trends in these variables, since the 1970s welfare spending has become increasingly less effective in reducing the poverty rate. However, the significance of this result for policymakers must be tempered by evidence that flaws in the poverty rate as an indicator of poverty make it so that any finding about the net effect of an increase in welfare benefits on the poverty rate underestimates welfare's ability to lessen the true extent of poverty.     

A Reexamination of Output Convergence in the U.S. States: Toward Which Level(s) are they Converging?

Abstract.  This paper reexamines the issue of output convergence among the 48 states in the continental United States. Implementing multiple panel data techniques to state per capita output during the period 1929–2001 reveals little evidence of stochastic convergence in all 48 states, but some evidence among collections of states at the regional level. This observation may suggest that output convergence in the United States has proceeded among geographically neighboring states rather than among distant states, notwithstanding the nearly complete integration of product and factor markets. Our findings appear to be robust to a subsample analysis, although the intensity of convergence varies with the choice of output measure and deflator. Industrial structures and geographic proximity are considered as potential explanations for the regional pattern of output growth dynamics.     

Effects of Economic and Environmental Reform on the Diffusion of Cleaner Coal Technology in China

Despite the urgent need to address severe air pollution problems caused by China's coal consumption, diffusion of cleaner coal technologies (CCTs) has been slow. This contribution utilizes the fragmented authoritarianism model to explain this slow diffusion by examining the structure of bureaucratic decision making and changes in incentives that have accompanied fiscal decentralization and enterprise deregulation. Case studies on the diffusion of two CCTs — flue gas desulphurization (FGD) and coal washing — highlight challenges of environmental policy design and implementation during the economic reforms of the past decade. Enterprises had little incentive to adopt FGD when central government agencies disagreed on promoting the technology and local agencies did not rigorously enforce national air pollution control policies. For washed coal, production slowed when coal pricing reform and coal industry restructuring were not co‐ordinated with environmental policies. Further promotion of CCTs in China requires changes in incentive structures for local governments and enterprises, as well as enhanced policy co‐ordination among central government agencies.     

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1970-1988: PART I (PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY)

The first of two articles devoted to spatial and temporal trends in economic development and levels of living within the USSR focuses on changes in the pattern of absolute and per capita economic output—national income produced and gross value of industrial output (at the republic and economic regional level, respectively). It then investigates the question of whether divergence or convergence has occurred among republics and economic regions in terms of these indicators. Finally, it assesses patterns of change in labor and capital productivity across Soviet republics.     

Simple strategies for improving inference with linked data: a case study of the 1850–1930 IPUMS linked representative historical samples

Abstract

New large-scale linked data are revolutionizing quantitative history and demography. This paper proposes two complementary strategies for improving inference with linked historical data: the use of validation variables to identify higher quality links and a simple, regression-based weighting procedure to increase the representativeness of custom research samples. We demonstrate the potential value of these strategies using the 1850–1930 Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Linked Representative Samples (IPUMS-LRS)—a high quality, publicly available linked historical dataset. We show that, while incorrect linking rates appear low in the IPUMS-LRS, researchers can reduce error rates further using validation variables. We also show how researchers can reweight linked samples to balance observed characteristics in the linked sample with those in a reference population using a simple regression-based procedure.     

No Race in Any Direction: State Welfare and Income Regimes

This paper has two objectives. First, we examine state adoption and implementation of income support policies under the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. We develop a composite measure of income support that includes welfare programs that scholars traditionally investigate and adds optional policies that encourage independence through work. Second, we engage a substantive focus on the administrative ability and willingness of states to adopt and implement sophisticated income support policies. We investigate the extent to which state government professionalism, ideology, economic resources, and racially based policies have shaped state policy. We find that the percentage of the state population is liberal; state racial demographics and governmental professionalism are critical determinants of state welfare and income support regimes. Significantly, we find no evidence that states are converging toward high‐quality, effectively financed welfare policies or income regime policies to help the poor move into and economically survive in the job market.     

The Costs of Exclusion: Gender Job Segregation,Structural Change and the Labour Share of Income

While women's share of employment has risen in many countries over the last two decades, gender job segregation has worsened, with women increasingly excluded from ‘good’ jobs in the industrial sector. In this article, the determinants of gender job segregation are assessed using panel data for a broad set of developing countries covering the period 1991–2015. The effect of gender job segregation on all workers, via the labour share of income, is also analysed. The results identify two major contributors to gender job segregation — the rising capital/labour ratio and the ratio of female/male labour force participation rates — indicative of ‘crowding’ and exclusion as economies move up the industrial ladder. The analysis further indicates that the crowding of women into lower quality jobs has a negative effect on workers as a whole by dampening the labour share of income. Those processes are influenced by global and macroeconomic conditions and policies that have circumscribed the expansion of high‐quality jobs relative to labour supply, intensifying competition for ‘good’ jobs and weakening labour's bargaining power.     

Is there Really Divergence Across Turkish Provinces? Evidence From the Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Tests

Using data on per capita income among 67 provinces in Turkey over the period 1975–2001, regional stochastic convergence is evaluated. This study employees the LM unit root test to endogenously determine the number and location of structural breaks for each province. On the contrary, convergence literature on Turkish provinces, both univariate and panel LM tests provide strong evidence for convergence except for the provinces of Bitlis and Erzurum when structural breaks are taken into account. Our empirical results are in accordance with the neoclassical model.     

Environmental Regulations and Multinational Corporations' Foreign Market Entry Investments

In this study, we examine how differences in environmental regulation characteristics are linked to multinational corporations' (MNCs) foreign market entry (FME) investments decisions around the world. We rely on a data set with 29,303 observations from 94 European Fortune Global 500 companies operating across 77 countries during the period 2001–2007. We found that MNCs are more likely to enter countries with more certain—i.e., clearer and more stable—environmental regulations than those of their home countries. Results also suggest that there is a higher level of MNC entry into foreign countries with environmental regulations that are more stringent than those of their home countries. This finding challenges the controversial but commonly held view that more stringent environmental regulations deter MNCs' FME investments. Notably, the magnitude of the regulatory certainty relationship with MNCs' FME investments is larger than that of regulatory stringency. Findings also indicate that the increased tendency of MNCs to enter countries with more stringent environmental regulations is higher in more democratic countries and for cleaner industry firms.     

STATE PER CAPITA INCOME CONVERGENCE SINCE 1950: SHARECROPPING'S DEMISE AND OTHER INFLUENCES*

ABSTRACT. Prevailing theories wrongly attribute post-1950 convergence of state per capita incomes to (1) neoclassical adjustment mechanisms, (2) institutional sclerosis, and (3) southern industrialization. But convergence-essentially a weakening of southern poverty–resulted mainly from the South's overcoming its legacy of slavery: the sharecropper-tenant system, agricultural dependence, high black population percentages, poor education, and low wage rates. Sharecropping was the dominant feature; abject poverty among sharecroppers dragged southern income to its knees. Sharecropping's collapse and attendant South-to-North migration affected the legacy's other features in ways that raised income. Manufacturing growth and transport improvements caused relative income in the West to decline.     

POPULATION GROWTH IN HIGH‐AMENITY NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS: WHAT'S THE PROGNOSIS?*

ABSTRACT This paper examines the continued strong population growth in U.S. nonmetropolitan areas possessing high levels of natural amenities during the 1990s and the reasons for near convergence of growth across the top tiers of the amenity hierarchy. Based on estimated parsimonious spatial hedonic growth regressions, strong demand for high‐amenity areas continued in the 1990s, but the converging of population growth across the top tiers appeared related to capitalization of amenity differences among the tiers into factor prices. Yet, evidence obtained from controlling for spatial effects suggests that the relative quality of life in the top two tiers had deteriorated.