城镇化的新形式与中国的人口城镇化政策

本文从三个方面讨论了发展中国家城镇化进程不同于发达国家相应发展阶段的特点及由此产生的新的城镇化形式对我国城镇化政策的影响,分析了上述城镇化的新特点和新形式在我国人口迁移和城镇化政策上的意义,认为相关研究和方针、政策的制定必须对上述新特点和新形式予以更多的关注。     

The urbanisation of Java, 2000–2010: towards ‘the island of mega-urban regions’

The mega-urbanisation process in Java is reflected in the spatial patterns of urban population growth between 2000 and 2010, although there has been a small deceleration in the rate of growth recently. This process is also clearly indicated in the significant increase in the number of urban localities, which reflects in situ urbanisation and rural–urban transformation in Java. Most districts and cities located adjacent to large cities experienced much higher population growth rates, compared to the core areas in cities. The formation of urban belts with a mix of economic activities connecting large cities is greatly expanding, while the small and medium cities, those with population sizes between 100,000 to one million, have tended to stagnate as their role and functions as centres of socio-economic activities are taken over by the large cities. Java’s mega-urbanisation appears unstoppable, and is largely uncontrolled at the present time. It is a daunting challenge for the central and local governments to manage the spatial urban growth in Java in the near future.     

Determinants of Net Migration to Rural Areas,and the Impacts of Migration on Rural Labour Markets and Self-Employment in Rural Sweden

Abstract

Across most of Europe, the countryside seems to show a polarized development in which large districts are depopulating, while certain areas, mainly around big- and mid-sized cities, are increasing in population. The latter development is often described in concepts of “rural gentrification” and “rurbanization”, symbolizing a transformation of rural communities to communities with urban values and lifestyles. Most studies of the effects of these processes have focused on social and cultural consequences, as e.g. the displacements of lower-income households with higher-income residents and of rural culture and values with urban ones. This paper examines the phenomenon from another perspective, namely the effects of the “rurbanization” processes on countryside's labour markets and economic life. This paper aims at analysing the determinants of net migration to rural areas in general and to different types of regions, and the impacts of in-migration on rural labour markets, self-employment and other socio-economic conditions in Sweden for the period of 2003–2005. We find that net migration into rural areas increases with the size of adjacent local and regional centres, whereas net migration decreases with the average commuting distance of workers in the rural areas. When comparing in-migrants to rural areas with rural area stayers, our results indicate that the former has lower incomes, a lower employment ratio and a lower degree of entrepreneurial activities. These differences could—at least partly—be explained by the fact that rural area stayers were on average 6 years older than rural area in-migrants, i.e. the two groups were in different stages of their life cycles.     

健康城市化:新的发展理念及其政策含义

我国城市化已进入一个新阶段,高速推进的城市化面临许多突出问题。在研究和政策方面也陷入困境,对未来城市化发展取向和道路认识不一。本文提出健康城市化的发展理念。它有3个理论来源:健康观的演变与系统健康科学的兴起,发展观的演变与人类发展指数评价,人地关系演变与可持续发展理论。在归纳其对健康城市化的启示的基础上,界定了健康城市化的概念,明确提出三个内涵:人的发展、城乡互动、资源环境,并与传统城市化进行比较。相应的政策含义是:资源环境是城市化的基础,城乡协调和互动是城市化的关键环节,"人的发展"是城市化的出发点与最终目标。     

改革开放以来中国城市化与经济社会发展关系研究

中国自改革开放以来,工业化实际上在走城乡二元发展的道路,城市化与工业化相伴生。消费需求的三次升级,一方面刺激了经济增长,使城市化的生活方式在城市和广大农村地区快速扩展,另一方面,也吸引了外资和技术的引进。浙江的民营企业加专业市场是中国自下而上城镇化的典范,江苏的集体经济加开发区建设是政府主导城市化发展的一种模式。本文重点探讨中国改革开放25年来城市化的主要动力机制变化及其对经济社会发展的影响,并进行浙江、江苏城市化实证分析。     

The specifics and spatial structure of circular migration in Russia

Abstract

This article aims at distinguishing recurrent population movements within the territory of the Russian Federation between urban localities of different sizes and rural areas in connection to the processes of urbanization, suburbanization, and de-urbanization. Incomplete urbanization and the strong polarization of socio-economic space in Russia have resulted in two powerful contradictory population flows: centrifugal seasonal sub- and de-urbanization and centripetal labor migration from rural and small towns to large urban centers. The article discusses three forms of recurrent population mobility in Russia: (1) daily commuting of urban and rural inhabitants within metropolitan areas; (2) commuting to large cities and their suburbs for long-term employment intervals (weekly, monthly, etc.), (3) second-home commuting to countryside dachas. Unfinished urbanization in Russia not only attracts rural and small towns’ population to major cities but also keeps it within the latter. It slows down the real de-urbanization and induces specific dachas (second-home) suburbanization/de-urbanization, with these processes being closely interrelated. An opportunity to earn money in cities together with the impossibility of moving to major centers due to expensive housing encourages households to remain in small towns and rural areas. Meanwhile, inhabited rural localities (even ones distant from cities) attract seasonal population (dachniks).     

A Conference on the Economic Development of the Volga Region

The magnitude of migratory movements has been steadily increasing in the USSR over the years, so that now more than 10 million people change their permanent place of residence every year. Although natural increase in cities has become an increasingly significant component in urban population growth, migration still contributes the largest element of that growth. The author applies an index of the effectiveness of migration to the process of urbanization in the USSR. This is the ratio of net migration in a particular place or region to the gross migration (sum of arrivals and departures). In general, migration from rural areas to cities is confined to a particular oblast or group of adjoining oblasts while city-to-city migration tends to cover greater distances between regions. Mean distances of migration are analyzed for the various economic regions of the USSR.     

宁夏县域经济发展的演变类型与城乡耦合协调发展分析

研究旨在对宁夏县域经济类型进行划分,揭示不同县域经济演变与转型过程中的城乡耦合协调发展的特征与规律。①宁夏县域经济演变与转型呈现出工业主导型与商贸与综合发展型两种类型;②工业主导型的城镇化发展指数和乡村发展指数都比商贸与综合发展型县域高,但差距在缩小;③除2000、2005年外,工业主导型县域均处于城乡发展较不协调状态,而商业与综合发展型县域则处于较协调状况。宁夏县域经济发展应该更关注三次产业的融合、鼓励劳动密集性产业的发展,增强县城公共服务能力,提升人口集聚与就业转移的能力。     

城乡关系变迁中的大都市政区整合与转型——上海案例

在工业化、城市化相互交织的进程中,大都市区城乡之间的权益矛盾关系极其复杂,行政区划调整成为调节城乡权益配置的重要政策工具,由此为协调城乡关系的行政区划调整也很频繁。本文以城乡关系变迁为逻辑主线,分析了上海市行政区划变更所面临的国家宏观背景变迁、战略调整,总结得出上海市存在"市管县体制"、市辖区切块扩张、撤乡改镇、整县改区等行政区划调整模式,这些调整有利于国家推进工业化、都市化战略,并存在城市中心主义倾向,将在建构城乡一体化发展新格局中发挥重要的作用。     

基于包容性增长的健康城市化支持系统研究

中国已经进入城市社会,高速推进的城市化面临许多突出问题,走健康城市化道路已成为中国今后推进城市化进程的必然选择。包容性增长概念的提出,赋予城市化新的内涵,如何在新形势下通过包容性增长推进城市化健康发展已成为政策要点。本文在厘清健康城市化与包容性增长理论的基础上,指出包容性增长是推进健康城市化的重要机制,以包容性增长为出发点,根据"承载力-支持力-吸引力-延续力-发展力"(CSAED)模型,构建了涵盖资源与环境包容性改善、经济包容性增长、社会民生包容性发展、人口质量包容性提升、政策与制度包容性调整5个方面的健康城市化支持体系。通过建立基于包容性增长的健康城市化支持体系,可以指导和促进我国城市化健康发展。     

Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization,environmental stress,and urban unrest in Africa

Most research on the security implications of environmental and demographic change does not explicitly distinguish between urban and rural areas. While statistical conflict analyses are increasingly sophisticated with respect to spatial and substantive disaggregation they largely ignore the possibility that urban and rural areas may be affected differently. In Africa, a continent assumed to be particularly vulnerable to the social and economic externalities of environmental and demographic change, less than one percent of the land mass is defined as ‘urban’. Yet, the population that lives in African cities is expected to increase by more than 150% between 2020 and 2050 according to UN population forecasts, massively outpacing rural population growth estimated at 35%. Given the vast social transformation associated with this process of rapid urbanization, understanding the dynamics and consequences of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, and its possible relationship with environmental factors is key to reducing vulnerabilities and facilitating sustainable urban growth on the continent. In this article we argue that high urban population growth may strain the provision of public services in urban areas, heighten competition over scarce urban land, and increase the chances of urban social unrest. We expect population pressure to have the most profound effects on social unrest in peri-urban areas, meaning the urban outskirts. We further investigate whether environmental push factors, operationalized as droughts happening in rural areas proximate to the urban centers, could be driving any effect of urban population growth on social disorder, possibly supporting concerns over climate change-induced social unrest. We test our expectations on a sample of similarly sized urban and peri-urban ‘grid cells’ covering the whole of the African continent for the 1997–2010 period, using geo-coded social unrest data. Our analysis shows that urban population growth is associated with increased unrest in the peri-urban areas only. We find no evidence, however, that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors in the form of nearby droughts. The study contributes insights relevant to the broader debates about possible security implications of hyper-urbanization and climate change.     

Return migration in China: a case study of Zhumadian in Henan province

This paper examines the causes and process of return migration from the coastal region to the inland provinces in China since the early 2010s, based on the case study of Zhumadian city in Henan Province. Surveys administered to both rural migrants from Zhumadian to Shenzhen and recent returnees to Zhumadian are presented. Industrial relocation and the development of inland provinces trigger the current wave of return migration. Family obligations, better prospects of the hometown, and barriers to settle in Shenzhen because of the hukou system are the principal reasons to return. Most of the migrants return to work in a factory or start a business. Some migrants purchase apartments in Zhumadian as a prelude to returning and starting a business at a future date. Returnees prefer settling down in urban areas rather than in their rural origins. In light of the empirical findings, the authors argue that return migration will ease the mismatch of labor supply and demand between the inland and coastal provinces, such that the Lewis Turning Point has not been reached yet. The continuing process of rural migrants returning to and settling down in Zhumadian suggests a way to achieve some of the goals in China’s new-type urbanization plan, as local governments may address the two major challenges of the plan, namely, local job creation and financing for increased demand for public services.     

中国地理学对乡村发展的多元视角研究及思考

乡村发展是一个综合性和复杂性的问题,具有多元化的观察视角。本研究从地理学出发,选取空间、转型、功能、制度四个视角,对当代中国乡村发展研究的现状进行系统化梳理,并分别对四个视角下的研究内容进行评述,发现我国地理学研究呈现多元视角融合的趋势,且存在缺少多元理论指导、对城乡关系关注不足的共性问题。基于此,结合国内外乡村发展研究最近成果及我国实情,尝试提出中国地理学对乡村未来发展研究的导向：推进城乡一体化为导向的乡村空间重构研究、加强新型城镇化背景下的城乡发展网络研究、加强城乡统筹理念下的乡村多元发展路径研究、推进城乡等值化理论指导下的乡村规划和管理研究。     

基于城市社会地理学视角的农民工城镇化研究

农民工深度城镇化成为我国城市化发展、经济增长转型、社会稳定和可持续发展的重大课题。在总结、梳理国内外农民工城乡迁移与城镇化研究成果的基础上,认为在我国城市化转型发展背景下,基于城市社会地理学视角,以农民工城镇化进程中的个体微观行为特征研究为基础,研究农民工在区域认知、城镇化意愿与行为特征、城镇化格局与过程规律,建立农民工城镇化空间模型,可以揭示农民工个体微观行为下的城镇化进程与区域城镇体系规划的耦合关系;从城市生活空间与社会空间特征评价不同空间与行为模式下的农民工城镇化效率,可以提出效率导向下的农民工城镇化的空间结构与引导规划;基于空间公正理念,从城市公共产品与服务政策、资源可获性的城市社区规划等方面的创新,可以促进农民工公平、公正、有序、有尊严的城镇化进程。     

The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China’s future rural and urban populations

This paper estimates China’s future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural–urban migration and the transformation of rural areas into urban ones. This model takes into account the effects of urbanisation on changes in the age structure of the Chinese population; and provides separate projections on the rural and urban populations. Our findings show that (i) the shares of people aged 65 and over, in China’s rural and urban populations, will double between 2010 and 2030; this implies that the ageing problem in rural areas will continue to be more serious than in urban areas; (ii) the rural labour force will shrink by 45 per cent, between 2010 and 2030, while the urban labour force will grow by 34 per cent; and (iii) China’s urbanisation rate will increase to 71 per cent by 2030.     

An Approach to the Mapping of Changes in the Settling Process

A variety of mapping techniques are used to establish regional differences in the settling process in Irkutsk Oblast and to measure the process in general terms. The most dynamic area, with urban and rural population growth, is the Middle Angara valley, where industrialization has been combined with the development of rural nonfarm places based on resource development and construction. Both urban and rural decline is typical of old mining districts, such as the coal district of Cheremkhovo and the gold area of Bodaybo. In most of Irkutsk Oblast, urban growth has been associated with rural decline. An important factor in the rural settling process has been a reduction of the number of places and an increase of the mean size of places, with remarkable stability in the 200–300 population class of rural places. Analysis of the settling process yields a map that distinguishes population growth, decline or stability in combination with a predominance of particular population size classes among rural places. A previous paper by the author on the mapping of the settling process appeared in Soviet Geography, December 1969.     

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1979–89: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE 1989 CENSUS

This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979–89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979–89 was roughly similar to that of 1970–79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970–79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence.     

江苏省流动人口分布的格局演变及其驱动因素——基于城乡建设用地的探讨

基于乡镇单元人口普查数据以及相应年份的城乡建设用地数据,运用空间分析和统计分析方法,尝试分析城镇-农村尺度江苏省流动人口分布格局的时空演变特征,并揭示驱动人口流动的动力机制。结果表明：①规模分布特征是具有较长大值右尾部的正偏分布,总体的集聚趋势增强,城镇和乡村集聚流动人口差距变大;②空间呈现高值集聚特征,热点区主要集中在长江以南的城镇,沿江地区流动人口高密度区域逐渐连绵化;③增长变化呈现长江以北地区城镇的流入人口增加、农村的输出人口减少,以及长江以南地区城镇的流入人口快速增加、农村的流入人口普遍增加的特征;④经济发展水平差异、乡镇企业繁荣、交通可达和政策导向是影响江苏省流动人口集聚的四大动力。     

上海、东京城市化进程及动力因子比较研究

本文以中国上海和日本东京为案例地,从人口、经济、土地、社会,城市化内涵的四个方面入手,运用熵值法对上海1985-2012 年和东京1954-2009 年的城市化水平进行综合测度,对比分析二者城市化进程,其次利用主成分回归法对二者城市化进程的驱动因子进行对比分析。结果表明：①上海目前处于城市化继续发展阶段,以城市经济的增长和土地面积的扩张为主要特征;东京目前处于城市化稳定发展阶段,经济的迅速发展和社会服务体系的完善是其城市化的主要体现;②城市化进程动力因子对比显示,上海主要依靠投资、内需及城市土地扩张推动,经济外向力作用相对较弱,而东京城市化动力中经济外向力作用明显。     

城市化进程中行政区划调整的类型、问题与发展

在回顾和总结近30年来我国城市化进程中行政区划调整的过程、类型与特点的基础上,对国内学者关于城市化中的行政区划调整研究进行总结、梳理。行政区划调整在适应和促进近三十年来中国的城市化发展的同时,也存在相应的问题;在当前我国城市化进程中需要关注的主要问题包括市制改革、行政区划调整与城市规划耦合机制、行政区划调整与农村城市化、行政区划调整与城市群发展等四个方面;未来我国城市化中的行政区划调整研究的重点是理顺撤县(市)设区后的城市管理体制,市辖区范围调整,城市群的行政区划调整与管理体制,市制改革等方面。