China's Demographic and Urban Trends for the 21st Century

This paper assesses remarkable and far-reaching changes under way as China enters the 21st century. Among the most significant are the rapid decline in fertility and birth rates, leading to a slowdown in the rate of population growth and a reduction in the growth rate of the labor force. This occurs against the backdrop of continuing structural shift in the economy from a rural-based economy to one increasingly urban-based with growing employment in manufacturing and services. Oshima's conceptual framework for the demographic and industrial transition in Asia is invoked to help explain conditions of change in China. Urbanization proceeds in parallel with these economic changes, and a key feature of transition will be the growth of cities and towns of all sizes. The regional pattern of urbanization will proceed at different rates, with coastal regions advancing most rapidly owing to stronger linkages to the global economy. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O10, O18. 3 figures, 6 tables, 36 references.     

A Shift‐Share Method for the Analysis of Regional Fertility Change: An Application to the Decline in Childbearing in Italy, 1952–1991

This paper applies shift‐share analysis, a tool often used in economic geography and regional science, to regional fertility change in Italy, 1952–1991. During this post–World War II period, Italian fertility declined by over 33 percent, but the decline varied widely from region to region. Moreover, the demographic originations of the decline in births are not fully understood. Using birth data for nineteen Italian regions, this analysis is able to break regional change in births into three main components: a national effect, a cohort effect, and a regional differential effect, which in turn provide insight into the roots of fertility change at the regional level. These three components of change are then further disaggregated to account for the differences between changes due to population change and those related to actual changes in birth rates (the number of children produced by each woman). Strong regional differences between the north and south of Italy are demonstrated.     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.     

Understanding Spatial Differentiation in Urban Decline Levels

The economic and demographic changes currently manifest in many Western cities—referred to as urban decline or urban shrinkage—are receiving increased attention in public and academic debates. Although the general processes driving these changes have been identified, such processes cannot explain why regions and cities which have been exposed to similar processes still differ in their economic and demographic developments. This Western European and US-based literature review attempts to answer the question of how this interregional and intraregional variation in levels of economic and demographic decline can be understood. It is argued that the degree to which wider societal forces (such as deindustrialization, changes in international and domestic migration and changing fertility levels) impact on a particular area depends on how these forces are filtered, first, through the institutional and, second, the spatial context that the region or city is located in. To understand the differences between the cities within one region (being part of the same institutional and spatial contexts), we need to descend to the city level and take account of the local (dis)amenities, comprising its physical, social and economic assets, and the influence of (the place characteristics of) other cities in the vicinity and the socio-political framework.     

Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registration system with estimates from other data sources. The results show that the recent changes to be real and not a result of data artifact. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the three other non-exclusive factors (population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect) that contributed jointly and simultaneously to push up the period fertility rates in the region.     

Population Change and Regional Development in China: Insights Based on the 2000 Census

The People's Republic of China conducted its fifth population census in November 2000. This paper draws from that census and recent data to examine national and regional demographic changes in China over the past two decades. Nationally, the impact of fertility decline on rates of population growth, age composition, and household size is investigated. Regional population trends include the rising population share of the eastern region as a result of population growth due to migration and in response to the widening economic gap between coastal and interior China. Demographic differentials between the eastern region and the rest of China (i.e., in proportion of working-age population, household size, sex ratio, and levels of urbanization and educational attainment) suggest that migration is playing an increasingly important role in shaping regional population distribution and that the acceleration of uneven regional development poses a major challenge to policy makers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, J61, O15. 4 figures, 5 tables, 52 references.     

FERTILITY CHANGES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1980

Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of communism affected more the transition to higher-order births. These results are however influenced by economic and demographic factors specific to each country. I investigate then the fertility upturn that is observed since the early 2000s—an issue neglected so far by demographers. Results from the analysis of official and household data show that in each country, the recent fertility increase resulted from the increase of distinct birth orders and was concentrated in specific ethnic groups.     

A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.     

Scarcity and prosperity in postwar childbearing: explorations from a life course perspective

An investigation of the role of Depression scarcity and subsequent prosperity on the postwar baby boom using two longitudinal cohorts from the 1920s defined by birth. The study into account variability in Depression experiences and alternative life pathways (ascent, decline and stability across generations) in attempting to explain linkages between the Depression and postwar fertility. Easterlin's relative income theory is explored and found to be an insufficient model for explaining the observed demographic behavior. It fails to take variability in Depression experience and life pathways into account, whereas fertility records of cohort members showed striking differences according to those variables. By relating 2 sets of variations, 1) Depression experience, and 2) subsequent adult status and accomplishments during a period of affluence and economic growth, circumstances were identified that enhanced different imprints of a Depression childhood, the bearing of more children, and fertility constraint. The interdependence of social change and life course is underscored by this study.     

The changing pattern of urban fertility in Eastern Australia 1966-1976

This paper uses unpublished data from official sources to analyze variations in urban marital and overall fertility in Eastern Australia between 1966-71 and between 1971-76. It further attempts to assess the relevance of the convergence thesis to changing fertility patterns and to evaluate the utility of an ecologic analysis of interurban fertility differences. The data indicate that urban fertility levels declined dramatically in 1966-76 and interurban differentials were substantially reduced. By 1976, the 2-child family norm had been widely adopted throughout Australia, regardless of region, community size, or sociocultural composition. Examination of marital fertility trends suggests that, although different areas had different elasticities of response to cyclical fertility movements in the 1960s, the magnitude of these differences was insufficient to do more than slow the pace of the decline while increasing the pace of interarea differential convergence. Declines in both proportions married and marital fertility after 1971 were reflected in declining overall fertility in all urban areas in Eastern Australia. During this period, however, divergence replaced the convergence evident in the 1960s. The present high level of uniformity in both marital and overall fertility rates throughout the study area about mean levels means that the regionally variable effects of future cyclical changes in fertility levels may be difficult to identify. As a result, detailed analyses at the individual/behavioral level that focus specifically on attitudes, values, and family size preferences may be more appropriate for understanding of post-transitional demographic change than studies based on spatial analyses at the local level.     

History,Chronology and Techno-Typology of the Upper Paleolithic Sequence in the Shuidonggou Area,Northern China

The timing and behavioral markers of the Upper Paleolithic in different parts of the world are of great importance to research on modern human dispersals. The pattern of behavioral developments in the Upper Paleolithic in northern China differs in important ways from the patterns observed in West Eurasia, Africa, and South Asia. Shuidonggou (SDG), a cluster of Paleolithic sites in northern China, contains several of the most important Upper Paleolithic sites in the region. Various localities yield evidence of three major cultural components dated by ¹⁴C, uranium-series, and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) methods to between roughly 46 ka and 10 ka. The oldest component, blade assemblages with western Eurasian early Upper Paleolithic characteristics, appears to be intrusive from Siberia and/or Mongolia, beginning at least 41 ka (e.g., SDG 1 and SDG 9). Advanced core and flake assemblages may mark the appearance of an indigenous Late Paleolithic of North China beginning at around 33 ka (e.g., SDG 2 and SDG 8). Finally, around 10.5 ka, microblade technology arrived in the area (SDG 12), although we are not sure of its origins at present. Other typical Upper Paleolithic cultural remains, such as bone tools and body decorations, have been found at various localities in the SDG area as well (e.g., ostrich eggshell beads from SDG 2, 7, and 8). Information from this cluster of occupations increases our understanding of cultural variability, adaptation, and demographic dynamics of modern humans in Late Pleistocene northern Asia.

     

Birth control and the fertility of the U. S. Black population, 1880 to 1980

Black fertility in the U. S. declined sharply in the latter part of the 19th century and continued declining up to 1940. Common expert opinion has held that this decline in fertility was not attributable to an increase in birth control practice. Instead, experts hypothesized that the fertility decline was due almost entirely to deleterious changes in health factors among blacks. The health hypothesis is faulty because those black groups with socioeconomic advantages most conducive to good health were the very groups with the lowest fertility rates. A number of recent fertility studies seem to show fairly widespread use of birth control among blacks during the 60 years up to 1940. This widespread use did not increase precipitously in the 1930s but grew gradually over the previous 1/2 century. Knowledge and acceptance levels of birth control were also high during those years among blacks. Similarly, the experts' beliefs that birth control, even if practiced among blacks, did not have much effect on black fertility because "infective" methods were used, birth control was not practiced "effectively," and blacks started birth control practice too late in their reproductive lives have been shown by studies to have no empirical bases.     

A Geospatial Analysis of China's Exports, 1991-2008

Three Taiwan-based economists employ a range of exploratory spatial data analysis tools (e.g., Moran's I and LISA statistics) to investigate trends in the growth of China's exports over the period 1991-2008. A particular focus is on the detection of spatial correlations between China and 40 export destination countries in major world regions. Emphasis in the paper on the key years of 1991, 2001, 2006, and 2008 has enabled the authors to analyze the impacts on China's trade of such major events as the country's accession to the World Trade Organization and the global economic crisis of 2008-2009. The results of the spatial analysis reveal the continuing importance of the U.S. and Asian countries in China's export trade (despite changes in the character of trade relations) and identify the spatial outliers (e.g., in Latin America) that may serve as the basis for new export markets for China in the future.     

A COMMERCIAL-BLIGHT PERSPECTIVE ON METROPOLITAN COMMERCIAL STRUCTURE

More and more attention is being paid to issues associated with urban decline. Many types of decline affecting different locations and functional usages in the city have been identified, including 'deterioration' (Simmons, 1966), 'decay' (Medhurst and Parry Lewis, 1969), 'stagnation' (Alexander, 1974), 'dereliction' (Bugler, 1972), 'obsolescence' (Davies and Whinston, 1966), and 'blight' (Berry, 1963;McKean, 1977). This list, although not exhaustive, indicates the confusion surrounding the issue of decline, since distinctions are rarely made among these conditions in terms of timing, effects, or types of remedial or preventive action. In this paper we focus on the concept of 'blight' and in particular the classifications of commercial structure that have been used to further our understanding of this issue. In the process our understanding of the other forms of decline may also have been advanced.     

Were Women Present at the Demographic Transition? Questions from a Feminist Historian to Historical Demographers

This essay identifies some of the deficiencies in discussions about fertility decline that bridge the gap between feminist historians and historical demographers. The author suggests that women are portrayed in the historical demographic literature as lacking decision-making ability. The author emphasizes that women are viewed in the literature as reproductive resources in a national context or statistical entities in quantitative analysis rather than as active and informed participants in reproductive decision-making. The author points out that the concept of fertility decline itself identifies reproduction with a biological universe unrelated to issues of social change. Since the concept of demographic transition was introduced in the 1950s, it has been criticized for its false sense of universalism about a complex set of social relations. Princeton University's European Fertility Project is criticized by David Levine as describing "large-group behavior at the expense of familial experience." Levine uses the couple as the primary unit of analysis rather than region, but ignores, as pointed out by Jay Winter and Wally Seccombe, that the changing position of women and changing marital relations are key to fertility decline. Fertility discourses at the turn of the century focused on the decline in racial dominance, class differences in fertility, and women's selfishness in taking control of their bodies. Thereafter, there was a shift from eugenics and biologism to medical sciences, statistics, and social sciences and policy. The long period of historical invisibility of women is now being reworked by scholars such as McNicholl, who recognize the different interests of men and women in families. It is argued by Anthony Gibbons that lesbian couples may be pioneers in clearly separating their reproductive capacities from their sexuality, a direction that heterosexuals may be approaching.     

Hopes,dreams and anxieties: India's one-child families

While rapid fertility decline in India in the last two decades has received considerable attention, much of the discourse has focused on a decline in high parity births. However, this paper finds that, almost hidden from the public gaze, a small but significant segment of the Indian population has begun the transition to extremely low fertility. Among the urban, upper income, educated, middle class, it is no longer unusual to find families stopping at one child, even when this child is a girl. Using data from the India Human Development Survey of 2004–2005, we examine the factors that may lead some families to stop at a single child. We conclude that the motivations for this very low fertility are likely to be a more extreme form of those for low fertility rather than reflecting the qualitative change in ideologies and worldviews that is hypothesized to accompany very low fertility during the second demographic transition.     

Economic Transition and Demographic Change in Russia, 1989-1995

A World Bank demographer reviews recent population changes in Russia, relating trends in fertility, mortality, natural increase, and migration to the social and economic effects of the transition to a market economy. Significant trends (a precipitous drop in fertility, an extraordinary increase in mortality—especially among middle-aged males—and a consequent decline in natural increase) are identified and analyzed, with dislocations caused by the uncertainties of economic and political transition suggested as the principal causes. The effect of net in-migration to Russia (probably mainly ethnic Russians from the Near Abroad countries) in partially offsetting the natural population decrease is examined as well. 5 tables, 16 references.     

Illegitimate fertility decline in England, 1851-1911

This study attempts to determine the extent to which several hypotheses are able to account for the illegitimate fertility decline in England in the second half of the nineteenth century. The results of a pooled time-series analysis are consistent with the hypothesis that a rise in working-class prosperity accounts for much of the decline. Additional reasons for the decline, which cannot be ruled out with the data used in the analysis, include the diffusion of knowledge and the acceptability of contraceptive methods and a decline in agricultural employment.     

The fertility of the Inuit of Northern Québec: A half‐century of fluctuations

The fertility of the Inuit of Northern Québec went through many changes during the last fifty years. We observe, at first, a decline during the thirties followed by a recovery, in the early forties, stopped momentarily between 1946 and 1956. The fertility reached a summit around 1961 to drop sharply afterwards. In spite of this important decrease, the fertility of the Inuit remains much higher than the generations replacement level.

We will try to relate these fluctuations in the Northern Québec Inuit fertility to the various events that influenced the recent history of this population such as starvations, epidemics, settling process, health improvements and socio‐economic changes.     

Korean unification: a solution to the challenges of an increasingly elderly population?

South Korea experienced below replacement fertility for the first time in 1983, which also marked the point from which fertility rates continued to decline over the next 20 years to reach a low of 1.2 in 2003. In spite of recent pronatalist policies, the fertility rate has remained near this level and has not increased appreciably. The reasons for sustained low fertility in South Korea are complex and solutions remain elusive. One option that has been suggested is reunification with North Korea, which could address the eventual decline in the population and mitigate the increasing proportion of the elderly. Although the conditions surrounding the German reunification experience were vastly different than what Korea will likely undergo, it is informative to look at Germany as a guide to the demographic parameters of reunification. Three projection models for 2015–2050 are presented; even the highest fertility models show that reunification will not be the answer to population restructuring already underway in South Korea as a result of sustained low fertility.