THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS: THE ROLE OF STATE VS. AGGREGATE INFORMATION*

ABSTRACT This paper provides comparisons of a variety of time‐series methods for short‐run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state‐level data set from 1960–2001. We test the out‐of‐sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state‐level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under root mean squared forecast error loss. Based on the in‐sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a “greener” median voter are more likely to push toward voluntary cutbacks in emissions.     

U.S. URBAN POLICY: THE POSTWAR STATE AND CAPITALIST REGULATION

This paper provides an historically grounded theory of U.S. urban policy which is informed by regulationist theory and recent contributions to the theory of the State. It is shown how the content and form of urban policy in the New Deal, was shaped by the rise of mass-production Fordism and informed by the particular struggles that emerged in the United States during the formative period of the 1930s and 1940s. These struggles produced a particular State policy response, setting in place a limited and constrained mode of State intervention in the economy. In the realm of urban policy, this narrow form of State intervention set limits on further rounds of State policy, leaving the U.S. State unable to respond in an effective way to the mounting economic crises of the 1970s and the 1980s, contributing to the so-called "failure" of urban policy.     

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: STYLIZED FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE POLICY

We characterize the evolution of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions using an index number decomposition technique which partitions the 1963–2008 growth of states’ energy‐related CO₂ into changes in five driving factors: the emission intensity of energy use, the energy intensity of economic activity, the composition of states’ output, per capita income and population. Compositional change and declining energy intensity attenuate emissions growth, but their impacts are offset by increasing population and income. Despite absolute interstate divergence in both emissions and their precursors, states’ emission‐ and energy intensities—and ultimately, CO₂—appear to be stochastically converging. We assess the implications of these trends using a novel vector autoregression (VAR) emission forecasting technique based on our index numbers. The resulting emission projections are comparable to, but generally exceed, those forecast by the 2010 EIA Annual Energy Outlook.     

CONCEPTS OF RISK AND SAFETY IN TOXIC SUBSTANCES REGULATION: A COMPARISON OF FRANCE AND THE U.S.

The notions of risk and safety which play a conspicuous role in the regulation of toxic substances have shown a markedly different evolution in France and the United States. American law has moved toward the development of statutory criteria of risk assessment, balancing both the costs and benefits of regulation, while the French legislator has consistently avoided a substantive elaboration of safety concepts through legal texts. This contrast is documented and its implications for the discretionary authority of regulating agencies discussed. Divergent national patterns are explained with reference to four factors distinguishing the legal and political systems of the two countries.     

SOCIAL-GEOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS IN THE REGULATION OF SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS IN A DEVELOPED SOCIALIST SOCIETY

An analysis of the impact of social development on forms of settlement and of the reverse impact of settlement forms on social processes. The author challenges the view that spatial forms have no bearing on social processes. The point is made by tabulating types of social contacts at various spatial levels and for different forms of settlement, from household to large urban agglomeration. The significance of information flows at different spatial levels is discussed. Large cities are found to have potential for the development of material and spiritual benefits that are lacking in smaller places. But since an integrated economy also requires smaller forms of settlement, ways must be found to provide a minimum set of material and cultural services at the lower level as well. Recommendations for raising the level of living in smaller Soviet populated places are offered.     

PLANNING: LESSONS FROM THE U.S.S.R.

Evaluation of the success of a plan requires the collection of statistics and indicators for monitoring purposes. In the health care field, outcomes are notoriously difficult to measure. To the extent that a successful program of prevention should result in providing less of a service, a conflict exists between planning and prevention: in the absence of outcome measures, success will be indistinguishable from failure, as in both cases, planned targets would not be met. To avoid this dilemma, an indicator-oriented planning system would be predicted to operationalize prevention in countable terms requiring increased inputs, or increased numbers of processes, regardless of the payoffs in health benefits. Screening, check-ups, and one-on-one contacts with health professionals would be emphasized at the expense of group-oriented activities or societal changes. Planning can thus have counter-productive policy implications. This theory is illustrated by reference to the current health care system in the U.S.S.R., including their anti-smoking and anti-alcoholism programmes.     

IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION MEASURES ON THE U.S. ECONOMY

A rapid deterioration in the quality of the environment in the United States has compelled the Government to take a series of actions, including the enactment of remedial legislation. However, the environmental protection measures taken have begun to markedly influence the country's economy, resulting in redistribution of some industries, e.g., the coal mining industry, and in a reduction in the output of some products, for example, a decline in lead production due to the use of nonleaded gasoline. The problems of environmental protection are not purely natural-scientific or technological, but also socio-economic and, hence, class problems. In a capitalist society, environmental protection measures have to be implemented under conditions of sharp conflict between a public value, such as the environment, and private ownership of the means of production, which pollute that environment. (The paper is based largely on materials gathered by the author during a stay of nearly six months in 1974–75 at the University of Illinois. The translation is by R. Bruce Wood, University of Illinois, Urbana.)     

UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS AND THE WELFARE STATE: THE CASE OF REGIONAL MIGRATION AND U.S. AGRICULTURAL LABOR

A common perception is that immigrants, including illegal immigrants, use disproportionate public aid and select locations based on characteristics of services offered. This paper asks to what extent geographic clustering of undocumented immigrant agricultural laborers in the U.S. is correlated with take‐up of public aid broadly defined. Evidence from a nationally representative farmworker survey does not support welfare migration for undocumented immigrants, who have been previously unidentifiable in the literature. The paper, therefore, challenges existing notions of welfare migration by illegal immigrants that have inspired state‐level public policy initiatives.