新中国成立前后美国对华政策剖析

新中国成立前后(1948.7—1950.6)的美国对华政策,不仅为中美两国在一个长时期内的对抗和隔绝准备了舞台,而且也拉开了战后美国在亚洲外交悲剧的帷幕。研究这一时期的美国对华政策,对于我们追寻三十多年来中美关系的发展轨迹,认识当前美国对华政策的历史继承性,无疑具有现实意义。     

高思与美国对华政策

克拉伦斯·爱德华·高思(Clarence Edward Gauss)作为1941年至1944年间的美国驻华大使,在中美关系史上是个比较重要但迄今为止未引起人们注意的人物。但是高思作为美国在华的“特命全权大使”,在这一阶段的美国对华政策中也扮演了一个特殊的角色,他与美国政府之间,与蒋介石之间,与史迪威之间都有着微妙的关系,对中国共产党也有他独自的看法。对他加以研究,对于我们发掘这一时期美国对华政策的演变及其决策过程的特点,加深对这段时间历史的了解,都是大有裨益的。     

略论1948-1950年美国对华政策转变的原因

1948-1950年中美关系处于模糊状态,美国对华政策也极其不稳定。由于国际因素和美国国内政治因素的影响,使美国的对华政策经历了从"等待尘埃落定"的现实政策到采取一条孤立、敌视和遏制新中国的外交路线转变过程。     

论60年代美国政府在中国问题上的几个基本观念

研究60年代的美国对华政策,必须先考察决定这一时期美国对华政策的核心理念,即“观念”,学术界似乎没有涉及这方面的讨论。1961—1968年间,美国民主党政府形成了对中国的四个基本观念：确认中国的现实存在;中国共产党敌视美国,富有侵略性,威胁美国的利益;中国经济危机导致粮食紧缺,社会动荡;中共内部权力斗争激烈,当权派受到挑战,政局混乱。承认中国的“现实存在”,表明美国政府意识到,必须尝试新的对华政策出路。但美国对华政策的基本出发点是,期望中国的“混乱”局面能推翻现行“敌视”美国的领导层,催生新一代“务实派”领导。然而,整个60年代,一片骚乱过后,中国并没有出现美国想要的结局,最终美国排除了对中国改变政策的可能性。     

美国研究领域的新进展和新趋向--"面向21世纪的美国和中国"国际学术研讨会综述

“面向21世纪的美国和中国”国际学术研讨会讨论的问题涉及中美关系、美国外交、美国法律和公共政策、美国媒体和文化、美国移民和种族等领域。中美关系是这次研讨会的重点议题,文化因素在中美关系中的作用和意义尤其受到学者们的重视。美国外交也是与会代表们关注的一个主题,学者们在讨论中注重文化因素和思想意识对美国外交的影响,深化了对文化与外交的关系及美国外交思想的认识。对美国法律和公共政策、美国媒体和文化、美国移民和种族等领域有关问题的探讨,也反映了学者们在研究视角、方法和观点上的创新。     

试评1945—1949年的美国对华政策

抗战胜利到新中国的成立是中国历史上伟大的转折性年代,也是中美关系史上的一个重要阶段。在这期间,美国政府推行了怎样的对华政策?这项政策对中美关系的发展进程产生了什么影响?它留下了什么经验教训?这些就是本文试图进行探讨的问题。一1945年8月15日,日本宣布无条件投降,太平洋战争正式结束。战后美国的对华政策在战争结束前已经形成。对华政策从战时向战后的转变,是由于美国的在华战略目标发生了变化。战     

试析约翰逊政府对中美大使级会谈的策略与意图

约翰逊政府时期,美国一方面把中美大使级会谈作为应对批评美国对华政策缺乏灵活性的挡箭牌,把中美僵硬对峙的责任推给中国;另一方面,随着国际局势的变化,开始把中美大使级会谈作为与中国联系的潜在的、有用的渠道,避免两国发生直接武装冲突。约翰逊政府与尼克松政府对会谈的不同立场,说明20世纪60年代中美关系是由美国对华政策决定的,美国在中美关系中占据主导地位。     

肯尼迪政府的对华政策

20世纪50年代初至60年代末这20年间,美国的对华政策经历了从“遏制并孤立”中国到“遏制但不孤立”中国的历史性的发展和转折。1961年当选为美国第31届总统的约翰·F·肯尼迪就是在这历史性的发展和转折过程中上台执政的。在对华政策上,他虽然原则上继承了他前任杜鲁门和艾禁豪威尔制订的“遏制并孤立”中国的政策,即:具体作法表现在外交     

中美关系史研究的重要成果——介绍《美国对华政策的缘起和发展(1945—1950)》

近年来中美关系史研究取得了不小进展。 最近出版的资中筠同志的《美国对华政策的缘起和发展(1945—1950)》(中美关系史丛书专著第一种,重庆出版社出版,全书连附录40万字)堪称一部力作,作者搜集了大量中英文资料,尤其是美国档案资料,积几十年研究国际问题的心得,对从大战末期到朝鲜战争爆发前的美国对华政策作了详尽的系统的阐述。这是近年来中美关系史研究中取得的突出成果。     

迈克尔·韩德的治学路径及对我们的启发

迈克尔·H·韩德是美国外交学界有着重要影响的知名学者。其研究领域涉及到中美关系、美国外交等。韩德早期专注于中美关系研究,是美国学界知名的中美关系研究专家,同时在美国与亚洲关系、美国外交政策研究等方面也有造树。他的主要论著中既有微观实证,亦有宏观思考。其治学路径及研究视角值得国内美国外交史学人借鉴。     

How Chinese scholars think about Chinese foreign policy

China’s assertive diplomacy in recent years has ignited intense debates among international relations (IR) scholars. Some argue that China’s assertive behaviour is rooted in its perception of increasing power and capabilities. Others suggest that it is US policies that triggered China’s assertive reactions. Relying on an original survey of China’s IR scholars conducted in Beijing in 2013 and using structural equation modelling, we empirically examine Chinese IR scholars’ attitude towards Chinese power versus the United States, their perceptions of US policy in Asia, and their preference for an assertive Chinese foreign policy. We find that both the power perception and policy reaction arguments make sense in accounting for Chinese IR scholars’ attitude regarding China’s assertive diplomacy. However, our research suggests that a more pessimistic view on Chinese power is more likely to be associated with a preference for an assertive foreign policy.     

Aligning the Non-Aligned: a re-interpretation of why and how Sweden was granted access to US military materiel in the early Cold War, 1948–1952

The article argues that previous research into how Sweden came to be eligible to purchase armaments in the United States in the early Cold War has misread the historical evidence. Instead of there being a change in US policy in early 1950, as has been argued by several Cold War scholars, this article states that it was the incremental changes of Sweden’s security policy that eventually made the US government view the Swedes as possible non-aligned allies in the Cold War. The difference is crucial. The Swedish adherence to the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (CoCom) embargo is a critical factor when trying to understand the perceived change in the US policy, because this was a confirmation of the Swedish consent to US hegemony in Western Europe. Furthermore, this article argues that, contrary to what prior research has assumed, it was never part of US policy to get Sweden to join the North Atlantic Treaty (NAT or NATO later). The evidence for assuming that this was ever a US policy objective is simply lacking. The article thus presents a much needed re-evaluation of US–Swedish security relations during the late 1940s and early 1950s.     

The United States and Myanmar: a ‘boutique issue’?

Myanmar has been one of a number of countries that the new American Executive branch selected for policy reconsideration. The Obama administration's review of relations with Myanmar, characterized as a ‘boutique issue’ during the presidential campaign, has received considerable attention in 2009, and in part was prompted by quiet signals sent by both sides that improved relations were desirable. Begun as an intense policy review by various agencies, it has been supplemented by the first visits in 15 years to the country by senior US officials. The policy conclusion, that sanctions must remain in place but will be supplemented by dialogue, is a politically realistic compromise given the strong congressional and public antipathy to the military regime and the admiration for Aung San Suu Kyi, whose purported views have shaped US policies. US claims of the importance of Myanmar as a security and foreign policy concern have also been a product of internal US considerations as well as regional realities. US—Burmese relations since independence have been strongly influenced by the Cold War and China, whose strategic interests in Myanmar have been ignored in the public dialogue on policy until recently, with US policy focused on political and human rights concerns. Attention is now concentrated on parliamentary and local elections to be held in 2010, after which the new constitution will come into effect and provide the military with a taut reign on critical national policies while allowing opposition voices. Future relations will be strongly influenced by the transparency and freedom both of the campaigning and vote counting, and the role—if any—of the opposition National League for Democracy. Strong scepticism exists in the US on prospects unless the Burmese institute extensive reforms. The Burmese military, presently controlling all avenues of social mobility, will have a major role in society for decades. The article initially evaluates US policies towards Myanmar prior to 1988, when a military coup marked a negative shift in US—Myanmar relations, from cooperation to a US sanctions regime. It looks at the influence China's involvement in Myanmar and the role Aung San Suu Kyi have had on the formulation of US policy towards the country and assesses the prospects for the US‐Myanmar relationship under the Obama administration.     

对众多不同国家的一个相同政策--浅析中国对发展中国家的政策

中国外交已走过了半个世纪的历程,其间有多次大的外交政策调整.与对美、苏主要国家政策的不断调整和变化不同,中国对发展中国家的政策更多地表现出连续性.在处理与这些国家的关系时,中国一直认为自己是这些国家群体中的一员,而且常常把这些国家当做一个整体看待.但实际上中国与这些国家内部都存在着很大的分歧.中国对这些国家的政策在很大程度上受中国与主要大国,特别是美、苏关系和中国战略的影响,在不同时期有着不同的内容,呈现不同的特点.     

The re-examination of Chiang Kai-shek's returning virtue for malice policy towards Japan after the victory of the Anti-Japanese War

After victory in the Anti-Japanese War, Chiang Kai-shek issued the famous radio speech “Letter to Soldiers and Civilians of the Whole Nation as well as the Peoples of the World after the Victory of the Anti-Japanese War.” The main idea of this speech was long interpreted as “returning virtue for malice” (or “good for evil”), a basic principle of the Kuomintang's policy towards Japan. Many scholars who have considered the returning virtue for malice policy in the postwar period include the following major issues: first, China repatriated Japanese prisoners of war and the Japanese diaspora with mercy; second, China allowed the Tenno, or imperial, system to be preserved in Japan; third, China did not participate in the occupation of Japan; and fourth, China gave up the right to ask for war reparations from Japan. This article examines the above four issues to reevaluate the returning virtue for malice policy. The first issue seems to reflect the Chinese national character of being lenient with others. However, it was in fact due to Chiang's anti-Communist strategy and the declared policy of the United States of eradicating Japan's influence in China. With regard to the second issue, Chiang's attitude was merely to let the Japanese people make their own choice, while the fate of the Japanese Tenno system was entirely determined by the US occupation authority, on which Chiang had little influence. The third issue was mainly the outcome of Chiang's focus on domestic political struggle in the postwar era in China. As for war reparations, China actually made efforts to obtain them in the beginning, but had to give up its right eventually. The decision-making process in the Kuomintang government was restrained by American policy and subordinated to Japanese pressure. Thus, it is not persuasive to summarize the basic principle of Kuomintang postwar policy towards Japan as returning virtue for malice.     

Why US-Sino strategic competition is good for Australia

ABSTRACT

Faced with an increasingly authoritarian and assertive China, the United States (US) under President Trump administration’s has embarked on a course toward a more openly competitive US–China relationship. However, the debate in Australia has viewed the new era of US-Sino strategic competition mostly negatively. Indeed, arguments have been made for a need to ‘radically’ rethink Australia’s defence policy in order to prepare for a ‘post-US-led’ regional order. For some analysts, Canberra has even no other choice than to adopt a strategy of ‘armed neutrality’ to deal with an emerging China-dominated regional order and a declining US, confused and unwilling to defend its allies. In contrast, this article argues that on balance Trump’s course correction on China is positive for Australia as the US is likely to maintain its robust engagement in the Indo-Pacific. While the president’s inconsistencies partly undermine US declaratory statements in regards to greater competition with China, a bipartisan consensus is likely to continue to shift US policy in this direction. While greater US-Sino competition requires Australia to assume greater responsibilities for regional security, radical changes to its defence policy and security alignment are not needed.     

The United States and Regionalism in Central Asia

This article examines the record of American policy towards regional cooperation in Central Asia. It begins with the determinants of regionalism and the role of external states therein. It then considers the nature of American interests in Central Asia. This is followed by a historical account of the three stages of American policy towards the region. The article argues that regional cooperation has not been a significant aspect of US policy. Instead US policy-makers have preferred bilateral relations or multilateral structures (e.g. the Partnership for Peace, the GUUAM [Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova] group) which draw the region's states beyond its boundaries. US policy tends to reduce incentives for regional actors to develop multilateral cooperation. It may also encourage competitive regionalist agendas on the part of other interested major powers (Russia and China).     

A Historical Inevitability?: Kissinger and US Contacts with the Palestinians (1973–76)

This article examines Henry Kissinger's role in shaping US strategy towards the Palestinian issue between 1973 and 1976, focusing a series of direct and indirect covert contacts with the Palestine Liberation Organization and its representatives during these years. Although scholars have correctly noted that Kissinger's Middle East policy concentrated on reconciling Israel with the Arab states, particularly Egypt, these contacts suggest an intent to keep open the possibility of bringing the PLO into negotiations with Israel.     

美国对中国“文化大革命”的反应(1966～1968)

196 6年 7月 ,迫于国际局势的压力 ,约翰逊政府提出了“遏制但不孤立”中国的政策 ,但该政策提出后并没有得到有始有终的实施。美国学者的一种观点认为 ,其原因在于中国的“文化大革命”运动阻碍了美国的外交努力 ,使中美之间失去了一次改善关系的重要机会。然而 ,美国国务院最新解密的外交政策档案显示 ,这一观点的准确性值得怀疑。美国对“文化大革命”运动的反应有自己的政策考虑 :它为中国这场内乱设定了目标 ,即希望这场运动导致中国政局发生有利于美国的变化。 1 96 7年中后期 ,随着“文化大革命”局势的渐趋稳定 ,美国的期望落空 ,美国政府内强硬派人士拒绝进一步尝试新的对华政策     

What do we know about the punctuated equilibrium theory in China? A systematic review and research priorities

The punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) shows that government policy is mostly stable with occasional drastic change, which scholars attribute to institutional friction and limited information processing capacity. Although the existing PET literature predominantly focuses on democracies, scholars have started to apply the theory to authoritarian countries. Autocracies are a fertile testing ground for the theory's underlying mechanisms because they appear to experience less institutional friction but more informational restrictions than democracies. However, PET studies on autocracies are still rare. To deepen our understanding of the PET and the policy process beyond democracies, we conduct a systematic review of 88 Chinese language PET journal articles. We show that Chinese language PET research is increasing. Contrary to the English language PET literature, most Chinese studies are qualitative, while a key similarity is the weak operationalization of PET core concepts. The reviewed studies confirm a punctuated equilibrium pattern of policymaking in China but provide only limited evidence for more intense punctuations compared with democracies. Future PET research on China ought to use long-term data sets and examine institutional friction and information processing by policymakers. We also argue for more international exchange and comparative research to advance our understanding of the policy process in China and other autocracies.