Conventions of climate change: constructions of danger and the dispossession of the atmosphere

Climate change has emerged as one of the key issues of the early years of the twenty-first century, bringing together concerns about human relations to nature, the responsibility of rich nations to poorer, the links from local activities to global conditions, and the obligations of present to future generations. This paper focuses on three key ‘narratives’ that are enshrined in international climate policy – asserting that ‘dangerous climate change’ is to be avoided; that the responsibility for climate change is common but differentiated; and that the market (in the form of carbon trading) is the best way to reduce the danger. The goal of the paper is to analyse the origins of these narratives, the power relations they reflect and promote, and some of the concepts and images used to support them, including those of climate determinism, climate stabilisation, ‘burning embers’, ‘tipping points’, Global Warming Potentials, targets and timetables, and carbon credits. I argue that by choosing the market solution of trading carbon we have created a new and surreal commodity, unfairly allocated pollution rights to nation states based on 1990 emission levels, and established a new set north–south relations and carbon transactions in the name of sustainable development.     

Narratives of climate change: introduction

This paper introduces a special feature on narratives of climate change, containing papers by Richard Hamblyn, Sverker Sörlin, Michael Bravo and Diana Liverman. The feature reflects the rising cultural profile of climate change in the public sphere, as represented, for example, by Al Gore's documentary film, An Inconvenient Truth, and art exhibitions devoted to the subject.     

The archaeology of climate change in the Caribbean

This paper emerges from an attempt to more actively integrate archaeology with ongoing geographical and environmental discussions of human responses to the effects of climate change in the Caribbean. If archaeology is to contribute to the mitigation strategies currently being developed, then robust interpretations are necessary that can be practically integrated with inter-disciplinary action. This paper discusses the methods needed to provide the high-resolution data and interpretations required using archaeological and palaeoenvironmental research from a case study area in northern Cuba. Using data collected from an ongoing collaborative archaeological research project with the Cuban Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment, we evaluate whether it is possible to make useful interpretations of human response to past changes in sea-level, precipitation and hurricane activity. Specifically, the effects of these activities on the changing nature of settlement locations, food procurement strategies and household architecture among pre-Columbian communities are evaluated. Indigenous mitigation strategies are identified and used to inform modern day preparation for the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean.     

Voices from the sea ice: the reception of climate impact narratives

This paper argues that indigenous peoples' responses to climate change are better understood in relation to emerging notions of citizenship than to climate change crisis narratives. The latter, like development narratives, are often used to license the intervention of experts in debates about resource management and conservation. Dominant climate change narratives about the Arctic emphasise the power of global climate systems to threaten northern communities by situating them as being intrinsically ‘at risk’. These narratives envisage Arctic citizenship within very narrow parameters which have largely masked the voices of northern citizens. Definitions of ecosystem resilience, while providing a framework for comparing disparate cultural and ecological contexts, are predicated on avoiding systemic collapse. It is argued that such definitions heighten the sense of risk implicit in climate change impacts. This may ultimately impede the development of different aspects of civic participation by northern citizens with climate change policy opportunities. Policy responses across a range of diverse geographical contexts require new narratives that put communities back into the calculus of risk and decision-making. One way to be more critical about the language of climate change narratives is to evaluate the extent to which they can account for, and mitigate, growing inequalities of power and wealth. Studies in the historical reception of science narratives are proposed as a better approach for making grounded comparisons of the discursive strategies with which climate change narratives are made to work. This also helps to bridge discussions of climate change across regions like the Arctic and Africa, which share much in common, but are too often studied in isolation.     

Atlantic salmon, archaeology and climate change in New England

A paucity of archaeological remains of Atlantic salmon in Northeast North America has been cited as evidence that the species may have been present in the region only during and after the Little Ice Age (ca. 1450–1850 AD), one of coldest periods of the Holocene. However, significant problems of preservation, recovery and identification remain. Here, improved methods of identification use vertebra structure to distinguish salmon from trout, and strontium/calcium ratios to differentiate sea-run from landlocked salmon. In addition to the Little Ice Age, Atlantic salmon is identified in tightly dated contexts at 7000–6500 and 3500–3000 calendar years BP, during climate periods that were comparatively warm and wet.     

The relative abundance of Onthophagus species in British assemblages of dung beetles as evidence for Holocene climate change

Abstract

The ratio between scarabaeid beetles of the genera Aphodius and Onthophagus in European dung faunas is influenced by summer climate, such that individuals of Aphodius species predominate in Northern Europe but are largely replaced by Onthophagus species in the Mediterranean region. Detailed study of insect assemblages from Neolithic to Saxon date showed a changing ratio between the genera with time. For the Neolithic and most of the Bronze Age, individuals of Onthophagus contributed around 16% of the sum of Aphodius and Onthophagus, but during the Iron Age the proportion of Onthophagus fell to around 3% and remained low. This decline of Onthophagus was probably the result of a slight cooling of mean summer temperature and agricultural intensification. However, the proportion of Onthophagus peaked at over 60% during the middle Bronze Age around 1450 BC. This is argued as reflecting a brief warm episode with mean July temperatures for Central Southern England at least 2°C warmer than at present.     

Response to late Bronze Age climate change of farming communities in north east Scotland

Pollen analyses are presented spanning the Bronze and Iron Ages at two sites within one river catchment in north east Scotland, one upland and one lowland site, to test the hypothesis that subsistence agricultural communities relocated their activities in response to major climatic deterioration at the end of the Bronze Age. Such responses were identified, involving the probable cessation of arable farming around the upland site and increases in the intensity of anthropogenic impacts around the lowland site. These changes are consistent with a model that posits a restructuring of agricultural activities, but are not considered indicative of settlement abandonment in the face of climatic stress.     

On exposure,vulnerability and violence: Spatial distribution of risk factors for climate change and violent conflict across Kenya and Uganda

Recent studies discuss the link between climate change and violent conflict, especially for East Africa. While there is extensive literature on the question whether climate change increases the risk of violent conflict onset, not much is known about where a climate-conflict link is most likely to be found. We address this question by analyzing the spatial distribution of the factors commonly associated with a high exposure and vulnerability to climate change, and a high risk of violent conflict onset in Kenya and Uganda. Drawing on recent literature and quantitative data for the period 1998–2008, we develop various specifications of a composite risk index (CRI) with a spatial resolution of half a degree for Kenya and Uganda in the year 2008. A quantitative comparison with conflict data for the year 2008 provides support for the composite risk index. Finally, the composite risk index is contrasted with the findings of three qualitative case studies, which provide mixed support for the index and help to identify its strengths and weaknesses as well as conceptual needs for further quantitative studies on climate change and violent conflict.     

The Weddell centenary and the problems of Antarctica

Most of the new industries established in Northern Ireland since 1945 have followed the traditional pattern of concentrating in the Belfast region. This has created serious problems in the remote rural fringes of the Province. To stimulate local initiative in these areas a Local Enterprise Development Unit (LEDU) was set up in 1971 aimed particularly at encouraging small manufacturing firms. Grants, loans, small factories and advice are made available to help small enterprises at all stages of growth and development. The scheme has had some notable successes but the level of local initiative has been disappointing and since 1974 the unstable political situation has reduced the amount of aid distributed and the number of jobs created.     

Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited

For proponents of the view that anthropogenic climate change will become a ‘threat multiplier’ for instability in the decades ahead, the Syrian civil war has become a recurring reference point, providing apparently compelling evidence that such conflict effects are already with us. According to this view, human-induced climatic change was a contributory factor in the extreme drought experienced within Syria prior to its civil war; this drought in turn led to large-scale migration; and this migration in turn exacerbated the socio-economic stresses that underpinned Syria's descent into war. This article provides a systematic interrogation of these claims, and finds little merit to them. Amongst other things it shows that there is no clear and reliable evidence that anthropogenic climate change was a factor in Syria's pre-civil war drought; that this drought did not cause anywhere near the scale of migration that is often alleged; and that there exists no solid evidence that drought migration pressures in Syria contributed to civil war onset. The Syria case, the article finds, does not support ‘threat multiplier’ views of the impacts of climate change; to the contrary, we conclude, policymakers, commentators and scholars alike should exercise far greater caution when drawing such linkages or when securitising climate change.     

The geological methane budget at Continental Margins and its influence on climate change

Geological methane, generated by microbial decay and the thermogenic breakdown of organic matter, migrates towards the surface (seabed) to be trapped in reservoirs, sequestered by gas hydrates or escape through natural gas seeps or mud volcanoes (via ebullition). The total annual geological contribution to the atmosphere is estimated as 16–40 Terragrammes (Tg) methane; much of this natural flux is ‘fossil’ in origin. Emissions are affected by surface conditions (particularly the extent of ice sheets and permafrost), eustatic sea‐level and ocean bottom‐water temperatures. However, the different reservoirs and pathways are affected in different ways. Consequently, geological sources provide both positive and negative feedback to global warming and global cooling. Gas hydrates are not the only geological contributors to feedback. It is suggested that, together, these geological sources and reservoirs influence the direction and speed of global climate change, and constrain the extremes of climate.     

Climate change and the expansion of the Scythian culture after 850 BC: a hypothesis

In south-central Siberia archaeological evidence suggests an acceleration of cultural development and an increase in the density of nomadic populations around 850 BC. We hypothesize a relationship with an abrupt climatic shift towards increased humidity caused by a decline of solar activity. Areas that initially may have been hostile semi-deserts changed into attractive steppe landscapes with a high biomass production and high carrying capacity. Newly available steppe areas could be invaded by herbivores, making them attractive for nomadic tribes. The central Asian horse-riding Scythian culture expanded, and an increased population density was a stimulus for westward migration towards southeastern Europe.     

Climate deterioration and land-use change in the first millennium BC: perspectives from the British palynological record

Climate deterioration at around the time of the Bronze Age/Iron Age transition has for long been argued to have resulted in upland abandonment in northern and western Britain, and recent research has provided evidence that a major climate downturn from 850 cal BC caused settlement abandonment in western Europe and potentially worldwide. It is, however, unclear to what extent only ‘marginal’ sites were affected, due to the lack of any systematic attempt to view the evidence for settlement and land-use change across a range of landscape types with differing sensitivities to environmental change. This paper addresses this issue by an evaluation of 75 pollen sequences spanning the late Bronze Age and early Iron Age in Britain to assess whether climatic deterioration was sufficient to cause widespread land abandonment. The results provide no evidence for wholesale land-use change at this time; the overall picture is one of continuity of land use or even increased agricultural activity. There are, however, hints of regional variability, with a greater tendency to abandonment of upland areas in Wales, and signs of woodland regeneration in agriculturally productive areas of lowland central southern England. The latter pattern may reflect a combination of rising ground-water levels affecting local land-use in the immediate vicinity of the mires which provide the source of the pollen data, against a backdrop of regional-scale social and economic changes at the Bronze Age-Iron Age transition.     

The influence of climatic change on the Late Bronze Age Collapse and the Greek Dark Ages

Between the 13th and 11th centuries BCE, most Greek Bronze Age Palatial centers were destroyed and/or abandoned. The following centuries were typified by low population levels. Data from oxygen-isotope speleothems, stable carbon isotopes, alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures, and changes in warm-species dinocysts and formanifera in the Mediterranean indicate that the Early Iron Age was more arid than the preceding Bronze Age. A sharp increase in Northern Hemisphere temperatures preceded the collapse of Palatial centers, a sharp decrease occurred during their abandonment. Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures cooled rapidly during the Late Bronze Age, limiting freshwater flux into the atmosphere and thus reducing precipitation over land. These climatic changes could have affected Palatial centers that were dependent upon high levels of agricultural productivity. Declines in agricultural production would have made higher-density populations in Palatial centers unsustainable. The ‘Greek Dark Ages’ that followed occurred during prolonged arid conditions that lasted until the Roman Warm Period.     

An innovative methodology of assessing the climate change impact on cultural heritage

Climate change is expected to have a severe impact on cultural heritage in the future. This study presents the methodology developed during the FP7 project Climate for Culture, of assessing the climate change impact on collection objects in cultural heritage buildings. The main innovation lies in coupling new high resolution future climate projections with building simulation tools in order to predict future indoor climate and identify future risks in historic buildings. The case study is an intermittently heated wooden chapel in Croatia. The whole building simulation model of the chapel was validated using a newly developed method of accuracy assessment in the context of preventive conservation. Even though modeling intermittent heating induces limitations in the model, it can be used for computing of future indoor data. Future indoor climate data was assessed for possible risks of biological, mechanical, and chemical damage to painted wooden panels using the newly developed specific climate risk assessment. When using this method of damage assessment on buildings with active climate control, especially with intermittent heating, it is recommended to determine the relevant season for the damage process in order to objectively analyze results.     

Unintended effects of technology on climate change adaptation: an historical analysis of water conflicts below Andean Glaciers

Climate change adaptation measures can generate long-term unintended consequences, as this paper demonstrates through an empirical case study of water conflicts at Lake Parón in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca mountain range. This decade-long struggle culminated in 2008 when a coalition of local groups (stakeholders) from the Cruz de Mayo and Caraz communities in the Callejón de Huaylas seized control of the Lake Parón reservoir from a private multinational corporation, Duke Energy. This clash over Parón’s water in the Llullán and Santa River watersheds emerged much earlier than climatic-hydrologic models had predicted, and it occurred, this paper argues, largely because of previously successful climate adaptation measures. The drainage tunnel and floodgates originally installed at Parón in the 1980s to prevent a climate-related outburst flood led to unintended or perverse outcomes because these technological artifacts subsequently allowed a diversity of stakeholders—including rural subsistence farmers, urban residents, national park officials, tourism promoters, the state energy company Electroperú, and Duke Energy—to manage water differently depending on their priorities and the existing governance structures. Neoliberal reforms that altered state-society-environment relations in Peru played a key role in these changing stakeholder power dynamics that were reflected in the management of water infrastructure at Parón. Examining this water conflict that emerged from the unintended effects of climate adaptation demonstrates not only how technology and society are mutually constitutive, but also why the politics of technologies must be considered more carefully in the analysis of social-ecological systems, hydro-social cycles, and climate change adaptation.     

Climate change,conflict, and cooperation: Global analysis of the effectiveness of international river treaties in addressing water variability

Climate-driven water variability is a natural phenomenon that is observed across river basins, but one that is predicted to increase due to climate change. Environmental change of this kind may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions which are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. We argue that our best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. In this paper, we explore treaty effectiveness, or treaty resilience, by investigating whether particular water allocation and institutional mechanisms help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. We use water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database as a dependent variable to test particular hypotheses regarding the impact of treaty design on conflict and cooperation over time. A broad set of climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948–2001 using the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to our primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms appear to be more important than others.     

The rise of the Indo-Pacific: understanding ideational change and continuity in India's foreign policy

In 2011, the concept of the Indo-Pacific began to appear in India's foreign policy discourse. This article argues that rather than signalling a dramatic shift in India's foreign policy, however, the way in which the Indo-Pacific has been interpreted by the Indian leadership suggests significant continuity as well as change, which is contrary to the goals of the concept's most fervent proponents in India. The article seeks to develop a framework for understanding ideational change and continuity in foreign policy by theorising the interplay between ideas, political and economic flux, and social expectations related to effective and legitimate state-building. It is argued that the Indo-Pacific concept has instigated a new emphasis on regional architecture-building to manage the ongoing regionalisation in the area between the Indian and Pacific Oceans as a result of heightened trade flows and production and investment linkages. Yet, the Indo-Pacific concept, like the new policy ideas on regional engagement that preceded it—the Look East policy and the ‘extended neighbourhood’—has been articulated in ways that are also compatible with long-standing ideas—such as non-alignment—about what constitutes appropriate international behaviour. This reflects the nature of the broader state project that has emerged since 1990, which, while encompassing a new focus on economic growth and competitiveness as being essential to effective state-building, continues to prioritise older ideas about what constitutes effective and legitimate state-building.     

The role of forests in global climate change: whence we come and where we go

Neither the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) nor the Kyoto Protocol include a satisfying mechanism for reducing the substantial emissions from deforestation which are responsible for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. It is acknowledged that planting forests, for example through afforestation and reforestation in the Clean Development Mechanism, clearly provides an opportunity to sequester carbon in vegetation and soils. However, it takes decades to restore carbon stocks that have been lost as a result of land-use changes. Reducing the rate of deforestation is the only effective way to reduce carbon losses from forest ecosystems. As negotiations on a post-Kyoto agreement have already started the authors argue that a complete and fair post-Kyoto regime will have to expand existing regulations by creating a framework to encompass all land-use and forest-related changes in carbon stocks. Developing countries administer the majority of the world's environmental resources and provide a vital global public good by maintaining environmental assets. However, with increasing pressure on development and the use of resources, developing countries can hardly be expected to provide these services free. Therefore, they will have to be integrated into a more comprehensive incentive framework which also rewards forestry conservation, sustainable forest management and afforestation. The authors discuss how an incentive system for the protection of forests can be included in a future climate regime. Different design choices are considered and two recent approaches to reward developing countries that avoid further deforestation are compared: the 'compensated reduction of deforestation' approach and the Carbon Stock Approach.     

The Natural Resources of the Ukrainian SSR and Ways of using them Rationally

A review of Cuba's physical environment from the point of view of agriculture, the results of the land reform and the government's policy of seeking a diversification of agriculture through further expansion of sugarcane production.